C100: Canon layoffs

[DLD]

Or, as 7III and 7SII are currently being sold at the same $2,000 price, Sony is waiting to clear out the SII inventory first.

As to SIII, it'd be hard for it to go above $2,500, as there'd be further improvement on RIII too (I assume RIV) and that is likely to stick at around $3,000 (with the flagship A9 off a cool grand from its $4,500 original).

Now, I know I made a similar prediction about GH-5 (about $400 too low) but there are currently major price breaks all over the photo-video universe.

 

[puredrifting]

Or, as 7III and 7SII are currently being sold at the same $2,000 price, Sony is waiting to clear out the SII inventory first.

As to SIII, it'd be hard for it to go above $2,500, as there'd be further improvement on RIII too (I assume RIV) and that is likely to stick at around $3,000 (with the flagship A9 off a cool grand from its $4,500 original).

Now, I know I made a similar prediction about GH-5 (about $400 too low) but there are currently major price breaks all over the photo-video universe.

IMHO, if Sony doesn't up the specs for the lineup, only die hard Sony buyers will even consider it. 100Mbps for UHD is a joke in 2019.

 

[DLD]

IMHO, if Sony doesn't up the specs for the lineup, only die hard Sony buyers will even consider it. 100Mbps for UHD is a joke in 2019.

The way it looks, this will be the Sony mirrorless full frame pyramid.

A7III - $2,000
ASIII - $2,500
A7RIII/IV - $3,000
A9/II - $3,500

They're likely to look at pricing first and then figure out which features to include and which to cripple.

 

[TheDingo]

The way it looks, this will be the Sony mirrorless full frame pyramid.

A7III - $2,000
ASIII - $2,500
A7RIII/IV - $3,000
A9/II - $3,500

By ASIII, did you mean A7SIII ?

I think the A7SIII when it arrives is going to be priced higher than $2,500. I don't see Sony trying to compete against the Panasonic S1 price, so I'm expecting something like $3,000+ for A7SIII, which is the same price the A7SII was introduced at.

Also the Sony A9 was introduced at $4,500 US, so I would expect to see similar pricing for a newer model. ( the current Sony pricing is discounted pricing )

 

[jcs]

The A7S II shipped for $3K at release. I'd be cool with $3.5K for the A7S III if they 'do it right' with no crippling (as noted earlier in this thread).

I'm a fan of high quality products, especially build quality in addition to image quality. Thus if Leica were to address RS and AF (add PD elements, AI), I'd rather spend more to get that kind of camera (FF) vs. something like the X-T3, which produces great images but has weak audio preamps and comparatively cheap build quality to even Sony (mainly the LCD and VF). If Fuji were to add FF (mainly for stills) and bump the quality for a higher price, that would get my attention too! Panasonic needs to work on color science for skin tones and also add PD+AI AF. For any of these cameras: skin tones need to match or exceed Canon for stills. I've seen examples of A7x III raw graded against Canon and it's not far off (overall image quality is better due to superior sensor / lower noise and less artifacts). Many stills shooters have jumped to Sony for the A7 III / A7R III for the superior sensors and can deal with raw color in post.

 

[DLD]

... Also the Sony A9 was introduced at $4,500 US, so I would expect to see similar pricing for a newer model. ( the current Sony pricing is discounted pricing )

The new FF models - from EOS RP to R to S1 to Z6 - are all being discounted off their introductory price primarily, one has to assume, due to the slipping sales. And, with the quality of the new smartphone cameras, the sales are likely to slip even further. Which means that the production lines are churning out product that no one is buying. And this leads to both discounting and layoffs.

This is a year and a half old news piece but it didn't seem to get much play at the time.

Due to the drastic contraction of digital camera sales resulting from consumers' changing habits, leading Japanese digital camera maker Nikon announced on Monday it was shutting down its plant in Wuxi, East China's Jiangsu province.

Nikon Imaging (China) Co Ltd (NIC) was established in Wuxi in 2002 and was responsible for the manufacturing of digital cameras and lens units. The Japanese camera maker has two other digital camera production bases in Japan and Thailand.

According to the company's announcement, the Wuxi plant stopped operation mainly due to the rise of smartphones.

"The compact camera market has been shrinking rapidly, leading to a significant decrease in the operating rate at NIC and creating a difficult business environment," the announcement said.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-10/30/content_33903511.htm

They're going to be blaming the smartphones, which reminds me of many of my former employers blaming the internet for the closure of the brick&mortar stores. But the key is that the incoming mobile phone models do what the older couldn't, they can match the performance of many an ILC. And that's bad news for the Big Four and the Small Three.

FWIW, this came out on F-Stoppers last week. Ruminations similar to those in this thread.

https://fstoppers.com/originals/dead-cameras-walking-what-system-will-be-next-bite-dust-351622

The A7S II shipped for $3K at release. I'd be cool with $3.5K for the A7S III if they 'do it right' with no crippling (as noted earlier in this thread)....

This is where the corporate steps in. Do they want a new FS-7III or FS-5III? Or do they make it in the DSLR (DSLM by now) form? And at what price point do they separate those lines? At $3,500 or $5,500? And, if either S1 or Z6 can deliver a ProRes Raw to an external recorder for under three grand combined, how many people will pay two more grand for a stripped down FS-5III or FS-7III? Or, do they just make A7SIII for $2,500 and cripple some internal features, so one'd also have to get a Ninja or Shogun for the ProRes Raw?

And what does Canon do? Keep the Cinema series in the EF mount or move it to the R? R seems to have more potential and they can give away the EF-to-R adapters but there are so many EF lenses out in the wild, they can't just drop the series. Or do they make swappable mounts?

And how do they project the market overall? Canon seems to be the most pessimistic and yet is now openly admitting that they have likely underestimated the degree and the depth of the collapse. And, in the world of such uncertainty, they need to remain as flexible as possible. And then some.

PS. Smartphone sales are also topping out as the replacements don't seem to be as urgent as they were in the prior years. On top of that, newer models from the Chinese like Alcatel can deliver a pretty decent quality for a very low price (it's the same trend - the processing power is greater, the screen, the OS and the cameras are good enough and the price is right) Which also means major discounts and price drops. Or, in case of Apple, a foray into a streaming business because they also see the writing on the wall.

 

[DLD]

So, some early/premature/completely false rumors have A7SIII as an 8K camera. It'd be a departure from the low MPX/high sensitivity concept of the first two A7S models. But Sony does have several 8K sensors. The one being bandied about here is IMX 335 with 36 MPX (there's also a "stills-first" sensor with 60 MPX, known as IMX 551)

 

[Gweilo66]

"This is where the corporate steps in. Do they want a new FS-7III or FS-5III? Or do they make it in the DSLR (DSLM by now) form? And at what price point do they separate those lines? At $3,500 or $5,500?"
Still (pun intended) there are inherent differences. "Give" FS versions more video production features and connectivity (dedicated and assignable buttons, XLRs, zoom rocker(s), SDI and timecode i/o without an add on back plate.

 

[puredrifting]

I'd love to see where the market is in six and twelve months. A lot of predictions going on here and elsewhere, but we are in uncharted waters now, anything could happen. It's interesting how our fortunes as video oriented people, have become inexorably tied to the failure or success of the still camera industry. if you only work on union, crewed camera shows with Arris, REDs and Venices, little of this affects you but for those of us a rung or two down the ladder, this stuff is a huge factor in what we will be able to buy in a year or two, even if you don't use mirrorless or DSLRs, these decisions are affecting cameras like the C300 MKII, C200, EVA 1, FS7 MKII, etc.

 

[DLD]

... Still (pun intended) there are inherent differences. "Give" FS versions more video production features and connectivity (dedicated and assignable buttons, XLRs, zoom rocker(s), SDI and timecode i/o without an add on back plate.

Off the early rumors, Sony intends to hit a home run with this, so they might indeed make A7SIII their flagship (over A9 and the 60 MPX A7RIV) and release it as a slightly smaller, much cheaper and yet a better specc'ed camera than a C200. That's your technological leap forward in a nutshell.

Which means my predictions from yesterday are already wrong.

I'd love to see where the market is in six and twelve months. A lot of predictions going on here and elsewhere, but we are in uncharted waters now, anything could happen. It's interesting how our fortunes as video oriented people, have become inexorably tied to the failure or success of the still camera industry. if you only work on union, crewed camera shows with Arris, REDs and Venices, little of this affects you but for those of us a rung or two down the ladder, this stuff is a huge factor in what we will be able to buy in a year or two, even if you don't use mirrorless or DSLRs, these decisions are affecting cameras like the C300 MKII, C200, EVA 1, FS7 MKII, etc.

Sony is likely to repeat their A7SII experiment and make a cheapo horror flick shot entirely on A7SIII. Try to budget an Alexa Mini/Mini LF after that.

So, adding to my trend count, it looks like 8K is tagging along the Full Frame lead-in. Which makes sense, obviously.

PS. IMX335 sensor looks to be made available "off-the-shelf", as it were. So, much like with S1/Z6/A7II, there ought to be plenty of copycats down the road. And 36MPX will be plenty sufficient for stills too, especially if there's enough processing for the S1/S1R 4X type pixel shift to attain a 144 MPX resolution. And 8K should be the place where the photo meets video in one sweet union.

 

[Paul F]

I've been through this so many times at corporations as perhaps some of you have. You know what happens in a declining market. Anyone can manage in a growing or steady market. But few in management really know how to hold the helm when everything is falling apart around them. Often, they end up getting desperate and make the stupidest decisions when they need to be really sharp and composed. Instead they panic and take drastic action, poor decisions. I remember one manager who told us all in one of our desperate meetings to figure out what to do next as we were collapsing. He was in a bad spot and thought he might lose his job. He said "If I go down, I'm taking you all with me.". That's the sort of stupidity and panic that is likely happening throughout the camera divisions.

Let's see if stupidity and panic or real leadership carries them through this decline.

 

[Gweilo66]

"Sony bigwigs have been claiming that the A7SIII has been delayed because, once it's released, it'll be the greatest thing since their full frame bread slicer. Or something like that."
If someone here is a Photoshop wizard, please take this on
That would be some damn impressive "convergence".

 

[DLD]

OK, this might be useful for reference (or not).

DXO began to rate the mobile camera modules a few years back and this is their list.

https://www.dxomark.com/category/smartphone-reviews/

iPhone5 - a legacy review for a 2013 release - was rated at 68. The current kings Huawei P30 and Samsung Galaxy are at 112. Even iPhone XS is at 105, a marked improvement over the five-six years.

Heading over to the "real cameras" section - Canon 5DMKIV is the current top Canon at 91 while the 2012 5DMKIII was at 81. Nikon 850 (top rated FF) is 100, 810 is 97, 800E was 96, 800 95. Panasonic GH-5 is 77, GH-4 is 74, GH-3 was 71.

Mind you, each section has its own grading system but it seems pretty obvious from the DXO own brand of testing that the smartphone cameras have experienced a huge jump in quality over the last half a decade or so, whereas improvements in the ILC stills have been marginal.

 

[scorsesefan]

I've been through this so many times at corporations as perhaps some of you have. You know what happens in a declining market. Anyone can manage in a growing or steady market. But few in management really know how to hold the helm when everything is falling apart around them. Often, they end up getting desperate and make the stupidest decisions when they need to be really sharp and composed. Instead they panic and take drastic action, poor decisions. I remember one manager who told us all in one of our desperate meetings to figure out what to do next as we were collapsing. He was in a bad spot and thought he might lose his job. He said "If I go down, I'm taking you all with me.". That's the sort of stupidity and panic that is likely happening throughout the camera divisions.

Let's see if stupidity and panic or real leadership carries them through this decline.

Umm that's bad. I once had a supervisor say that to a group of us camera ops.. One thing's for sure: middle management is the first to go and I would be surprised if that isn't what's happening at Canon right now...

 

[Run&Gun]

OK, this might be useful for reference (or not).

DXO began to rate the mobile camera modules a few years back and this is their list.

https://www.dxomark.com/category/smartphone-reviews/

iPhone5 - a legacy review for a 2013 release - was rated at 68. The current kings Huawei P30 and Samsung Galaxy are at 112. Even iPhone XS is at 105, a marked improvement over the five-six years.

Heading over to the "real cameras" section - Canon 5DMKIV is the current top Canon at 91 while the 2012 5DMKIII was at 81. Nikon 850 (top rated FF) is 100, 810 is 97, 800E was 96, 800 95. Panasonic GH-5 is 77, GH-4 is 74, GH-3 was 71.

Mind you, each section has its own grading system but it seems pretty obvious from the DXO own brand of testing that the smartphone cameras have experienced a huge jump in quality over the last half a decade or so, whereas improvements in the ILC stills have been marginal.

To me it says that camera phones had a lot more room for improvement . I also know that DXO's rating/grading/testing system has been called into question many, many times over the years and it has gotten quite contentious on some of the still forums in the past.

 

[Run&Gun]

Umm that's bad. I once had a supervisor say that to a group of us camera ops.. One thing's for sure: middle management is the first to go and I would be surprised if that isn't what's happening at Canon right now...

Yep. There's usually lots more overlap/excess in middle management positions, where a lot of times they're not actually doing anything/contributing. Just enforcing someone else's rules or trying to come up with some of their own to make a name for themself or to try to get a bonus. On the flip side, I've seen people that were very good at their job be pulled away from it and moved into a supervisory/middle management position where they were no longer contributing and doing what they were good at doing. Relegated to essentially just making schedules for the group of people that they were pulled from. But now they have a "title", which is everything in the corporate world.

 

[Cary Knoop]

"Sony bigwigs have been claiming that the A7SIII has been delayed because, once it's released, it'll be the greatest thing since their full frame bread slicer. Or something like that."
If someone here is a Photoshop wizard, please take this on
That would be some damn impressive "convergence".

I won't be surprised is will be another 8 bit but 'don't worry, it's HDR' product.

 

[DLD]

To me it says that camera phones had a lot more room for improvement ...

The first iPhone in 2005 had a 2 MP sensor ... so, "room for improvement" is an understatement.

However, that's the point. However underperforming visavis the ILC's historically, the smartphones have been destroying the photo-video industry on sheer sales.

I also know that DXO's rating/grading/testing system has been called into question many, many times over the years and it has gotten quite contentious on some of the still forums in the past.

Ya, on Canon forums ... for not bowing to the mighty Canon, the Czars of the Hybrid Photo-Video Universe.

I look at it as a garbage-in-garbage-out rating. As long as it's consistent, it's close enough. I have not even looked at their mobile articles in depth.

Side note - Car&Driver gave Honda Civic SI 4 1/2 stars and Hyundai Elantra GT N-line 3 1/2 stars, denoting a pretty huge difference. On one of the YouTube "car" channels, the two cars were pitted against each other. The verdict there, Civic SI was sportier, Elantra GT N-line was a slightly better daily driver.

 

[jcs]

Camera sensors for phones get a lot of attention as the market as vastly larger = more profit.

That said, IMO the end of the dedicated camera is vastly overstated for professional work, and for anyone wanting an improved user experience for taking pictures/video. The human-user interaction with a phone as a camera is poor. Form-factor / I/O controls (handles, buttons, VFs etc.) are needed and perhaps they'll become available for 'cameras with embedded modems (phones)' in the near future. The current convergence of BT/WiFi in cameras to interact with phones (Sony, Canon from my experience) has a long way to go, and thus a lot of opportunity for improvement. I'm not sure a 'complete merging' makes sense: I don't want to take calls on my camera (or use apps) and I'd prefer to use a 'real camera' (form factor, buttons, VF etc.) for photos+video.

 

[DLD]

BTW, the big deal with the smartphones isn't even how much improvement they have undergone or will undergo but at what point the smartphone performance will cross into the "Irrelevant Alley" (TM). In other words, at what performance point do the smartphone camera modules become so good, any advantage enjoyed by the ILC's become irrelevant for the vast majority of the potential customer base? I say, the new 5x and 10x optical zooms and pixel shifting sensors deliver that Irrelevant Alley grade as soon as they begin to ship (likely this summer).

That's one of the reasons the Big Four has shifted toward the full frame and 8K but, for your casual user, that's like having a 500 hp sedan - nice if you can afford it but not a necessity.