C100: Canon layoffs
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Mitch Gross
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I won’t comment on what may or may not be going on at Canon, but this certainly is not what’s happening at Panasonic.
The sensor tech in phone cameras is less important than the software solutions, in terms of innovation. I'd be more worried about companies like Canon being a bit too slow on the software side, though they're learning to be more aggressive they're still a hardware company at the heart of it.
puredrifting
Major Contributor
I'm already going through a version of this, we were mainly shooting with professional cameras, (RED, C200, C300 MKII) and with the advent of the Fujifilm XT-3, the mirrorless poorer form factor crossed into Irrelevant Alley. Yes, after shooting with the 5D MKII, MKIII for years, I couldn't wait to get away from the clunkiness and inconvenience of trying to shoot professional video with a DSLR. Mirrorless is a step back toward that with having to use external NDs, no time code, no XLRs, etc. but the benefits of tiny, small weight, inexpensive and very good picture quality outweigh the negatives, at least for me for certain projects.
I doubt camera prices will go up ... but it's a good bet that the old names in the industry will be taken over much like the old TV brands, where JVC are owned by Shenzhen; Magnavox, Emerson, Sanyo and Sylvania by Funai; Toshiba and Sharp by HiSense; Westinghouse by Tongfang, etc. It would make sense for the Chinese smartphone giants to take over the Big Four at some point just to share the overhead.
But this does not bode well for the Big Four employees. And other names (Olympus, Pentax) without the cache are likely never to be heard from again.
PS As to "pro gear", I can see some external camera modules like Sony QX 10 or Kodak Pixpro, where the smartphone itself serves as a digital back of sorts.
Side note - there were also a Hasseblad True Zoom of 2016, an external camera module for Motorola Z, and DXO One (2015). Both got panned, neither sold well, each is heavily discounted. To me, DXO One was an obvious idea that was poorly implemented but might reappear in the future under a different name and with far improved performance.
DLD for sunsets and similar, I get excellent results from the iPhone X (see my IG below). For portraits and video work, the 1DX II + L lenses is (currently) vastly better. Will use what works best and still prefer physical buttons, grips, viewfinders etc. to only having a fiddly touch screen (which is good for menus/config, but not so much for use as a camera). For video, at the top of the food chain, Alexa 65, LF, MiniLF, Sony VENICE, Red Monstro VV along with top lenses e.g. Leica Thalia, Cooke S7/i also produce images that are vastly better than even Canon's top C cameras with top Canon Cinema lenses (though would be interesting to see the C700 FF against those cameras + lenses in a side by side test). By vastly better, meaning for use in cinema, television/streaming (especially HDR 4K), commercials, and location-based entertainment and advertising (e.g. giant video walls viewed up close).
Regarding the global markets in general- good things are happening! There's also a global awakening to things about things that will lead to more good things (and things that made bad things (happen) are/will be modulated as a result of this awareness of things about things). We do need to take another look at civilization in general, regarding jobs, the corporate world, products & services, and ways to improve things using new (to the public) knowledge about things
Regarding the global markets in general- good things are happening! There's also a global awakening to things about things that will lead to more good things (and things that made bad things (happen) are/will be modulated as a result of this awareness of things about things). We do need to take another look at civilization in general, regarding jobs, the corporate world, products & services, and ways to improve things using new (to the public) knowledge about things
The next two-three years are shaping up as a major battle royal. The new Huawei Pro 30 has a 40 MP sensor (probably Sony, probably via a pixel shift, but they ain't talking trade secrets yet), which technically places it above any MFT and APS-C camera on the resolution factor.* Plus, it has a selfie cam. And you can talk into it and post on Facebook and Instagram. This destroys the MFT/APS-C/P&S portions of the market, with the exception of those needing the telephotos for BiF and action. And 40 MPX itself is in the Irrelevant Alley already. And if the MFT/APS-C goes to dogs, the number of total units sold will plummet because Full Frame won't be able to support all these factories by itself. And then the layoffs will become common place.
*Olympus and Panasonic have several pixel shifting MFT models that go above 40 MPX. S1 and S1R go way above 40 MPX in FF.
The photo-video industry strategic response to these new smartphones has been reasonable and yet wholly expected - bring down the cost of the full frame cameras with its video features crippled in order to avoid the disruptions to the still lucrative pro video market. But, since cartels are notoriously unstable with each member seeking to enrich itself "off the books", as it were, even this portion is breaking up due to the external recorders. And, once again, the OEM's come out with the 8K as a reply to the 4K, which is another step into the Irrelevant Alley.
A competitive market would have responded with number crunching and AI enabled MFT and the APS-C models. Samsung NX1 had the AI predicting focus five years ago! Fuji's so far come the closest and is allowed to do so because it is such a minor player on the global scene. Even then it is making inroads into the pro territory with XT-3.
To me, the model to watch here is S1. If it gets the external recorder ProRes Raw enabled, it will be capable of essentially duplicating a high end camera performance for under $3,000. All it needs is a few more decent lenses. (although, the crippling goes on there as well with the early Sigmas coming out as primes).
Then the next step would not necessarily be an 8K A7SIII but a 4K 10-bit A7IV (24 MPX) or 6K A7RIV (45 MPX) with a CFexpress slot. For $1,500 and $2,500 respectively.
And that will be all folks.
PS. Photo rumors have 65-70 MPX cameras being announced soon. Sony already has the sensors. The working pros will snap them. To the most, the jump won't be worth it.
After the latest FW update, it appears Sony has the best AI AF (not that it’s technically hard to do at this point- has been easy for years, just held back / crippled).
S1 doesn’t have usable AF let alone AI AF.
While it’s nice for the other manufacturers Sony has been sandbagging, Sony wins the next market shake out: best tech and they make sensors for every market- from phones to top cinema cameras.
S1 doesn’t have usable AF let alone AI AF.
While it’s nice for the other manufacturers Sony has been sandbagging, Sony wins the next market shake out: best tech and they make sensors for every market- from phones to top cinema cameras.
Sony outselling Canon and Nikon combined: https://petapixel.com/2019/05/03/the-sony-a7-iii-is-outselling-canon-and-nikon-combined-in-japan/
And that's with the heavily crippled A7 III!
No reason to release the A7S III for some time: looks like it will be Fuji X-T3 for those wanting the best bang for buck for a while for video (sales doing well for Fuji- not clear how they compare to Sony in Japan / globally).
And that's with the heavily crippled A7 III!
No reason to release the A7S III for some time: looks like it will be Fuji X-T3 for those wanting the best bang for buck for a while for video (sales doing well for Fuji- not clear how they compare to Sony in Japan / globally).
That's the straw they drew in the negotiations. DFD ain't good enough but they can't change it ... until they're allowed to do so. But S1 sets up everything else.
PS. Do note that S1 weighs over a kilo (1,021 grams), way more than A7III 650 grams. EOS R is 660 grams, NikonZ6 is 675. Where does the heft come from?
Going mirrorless was the riskiest move of all time for Canon and Nikon because it undermines their sales in the DSLR territory, with buyers wondering about the OEM's commitment to their EF and F-mounts. And, by the time this shakes out, the entire industry can be going the way of the dodo.
Huh ?
The S1 AF recognizes eyes, faces, human heads, human bodies, cats, dogs, birds, etc...
Check Lok Cheung's three month review of the S1, at about the 2:20 mark where the Panasonic S1 is able to recognise a human head from behind and focuses correctly, but the Sony camera has no clue and doesn't recognize the human head right in front of it.
Without phase detect or other sensor input, contrast detect by itself will always be at a disadvantage as it lacks the data informing which direction to focus. See around 4:15 where they admit the A7 III is faster.
The AI part is well known and now is the easy part. Hardware sensors are needed to compete with top performers- Canon, Sony, Fuji etc. See latest demos with new FW for A7 III and A9 on YT when PD sensors are combined with AI.
Off other videos, the contrast detect on S1 can be totally off during, you guessed it, high contrast shots. where it seeks the brightest portions of the screen. Not sure if the settings work for or against this tendency. Oddly enough, it works pretty well in the low ISO situations (maybe because its ISO is mind-boggling high). Most of the time, the S1 AF works reasonably well.
Full video related evaluation is still waiting for the paid V-Log 10-bit and what not upgrade.
PS. Presuming that the v-log will be on par with the previous Panny models and considering that S1 does have a pixel-shifting 96 MPX resolution, does one really need anything above it?
Full video related evaluation is still waiting for the paid V-Log 10-bit and what not upgrade.
PS. Presuming that the v-log will be on par with the previous Panny models and considering that S1 does have a pixel-shifting 96 MPX resolution, does one really need anything above it?
Note that the referenced article is for Japan if that matters. If you look at any U.S. news footage where pro journalists are in frame, Canon dslr easily rules this roost. If you go to Fred Miranda's photo site, there is a lot of buzz about Sony and other mirrorless, but if you dig into the pro wedding postings, Canon dslr easily rules. There might be a lot of reasons for this including pro mirrorless is still new and the installed base of Canon products hasn't reached retirement yet. But IMHO, for photography, there isn't much motivation for upgrading beyond gearlust. How much better camera do you need than a 5D4 or 1Dxxx? Some folks just hate Canon since they have always held to strong pricing and stifled features to protect different parts of their product line. At the same time they have revolutionized the markets with multiple products including the 5D2, 5D3, C100, C300. Sure some disgruntled folks will wander off and shoot with a Sony mirrorless of Fuji something, and they might be terrific cams, but this will be a small and isolated part of the pro world.
My main video and stills camera is the 1DX II with 80D for backup/travel. Other than the crop, with sufficient light the 80D does fine for portraits compared to the 1DX II (not going for max shallow DOF). For video the 1DX II is much better. While not disgruntled, once I did the math/research after noticing severe aliasing on the C300 II (paid $16K) I became more focused on actual performance vs. specs and marketing. Had I understood that a 4K Bayer sensor can't produce true/actual 4K I would not have purchased the C300 II (you need at least 2/3 oversampling (* 1.5), or ~5.7K to get real 4K and without aliasing (along with the correct OLPF). I hadn't seen aliasing in the 1DX II in 4K until recently (clothing); for whatever reason it's not as bad as the C300 II's 4K. The next 4K video camera to purchase will have an oversampled sensor, e.g. A7 III, X-T3 etc. Though for stills + video and using existing Canon lenses, an EOS R might replace the 80D at some point.
There's lots of waking up in the world right now, and the camera market is experiencing similar effects. For most people on this planet, the cellphone camera is sufficient. However, even my iPhone X doesn't take as good of photos as my old (now given away) Canon SD900ti (titanium; owned 2 and built a stereo3D rig for them). The lens, flash, and color science were and still are superior to the iPhone X for people/skintones (iPhones do fine for landscape/sunset shots).
Part of the issue is a kind of dumbing down or getting used to lower quality as good enough. Remember when MP3's became popular? CD's sounded (and still do) way better, however being able to put 1000's of songs on a hard drive was mind blowing (especially for those who were cool with pirating (I was not- purchased all my music)). I remember having debates with friends who tried to justify their behavior, and that piracy was OK, that artists had to figure out a different way to make a living e.g. by doing more live shows. Super not cool, and is a clue to how our planet got to the current state of beliefs and market conditions. People OK with lying and stealing music (+ expecting more and more things for free) are part of the reason we got this behavior throughout our society at all levels.
I think most people are tired of the lying and stealing (in everything) and are ready for truth in advertising, truth in everything, accountability, and honest product marketing without all the crippling. Look at the positive market feedback for Panasonic, Fuji, BM (even Nikon) for trying to create better products without crippling, more frequent firmware updates etc. Sure, they lack the manufacturing capability, quality control, and tech features of the bigger brands, though people sense they are at least trying to be better vs. spin advertising + crippling (Canon, Sony).
The pro market is tiny, has been and will remain small compared to the consumer market. That said I think there will always be a market of better gear above cell phones, just from form-factor and usability alone. Given the up coming visor/eye-wear/super-tech-sunglasses coming from Apple and others, the next cameras may be built into the HMD and/or simply be easy to hold modules in your hand, attached to clothing, objects, etc. and capture data to the HMD then the cloud, with editing all done via eye-hand-voice commands a la Minority Report. Even with all this tech, creating entertaining content, good composition, lighting, sound story are still the most important elements. Gear is gear- tools to create things, though some people will always be more about collecting and talking about tools vs. creating content- all good and part of the entertainment experience.
50K seems low for the pro photographer market, especially when including part timers, curious how this was measured/sampled, do you have a link? This says 147K: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/media-and-communication/photographers.htm
4.68 billion cell phone users in 2019: https://www.statista.com/statistics/274774/forecast-of-mobile-phone-users-worldwide/
Which if looked at comparatively, is effectively 0% of the total market (50000/(4.68*(10^9)+50000) = 0.00001068364).
As you know, millions of people use pro + prosumer + better-than-cellphone cameras, so the ratio isn't quite zero.
Action camera market is growing: https://www.businesswire.com/news/h...bal-Action-Camera-Market-Report-2019-Analysis
https://www.technavio.com/research/digital-camera-market
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