Thoughts on rumored 5D Mark IV

He must be. According to the new rumors, 5D MKIV might be announced around February-March, 2016, which is just about four years since the introduction of MKIII. A four year cycle is a bit long these days, especially if it only catches up to the competition without getting ahead of them.
 
I have long stopped guessing about Canon's products but it would seem they need to pull out some stops or many (like me) will stay with the 5DMKIII. Won't surprised either way though.
 
In my opinion, when it comes to the 5D, Canon doesn't care what Sony and Panasonic are doing. Sony cameras may have a bunch of bells and whistles but they're still behind in AF speed, reliability and lens lineup. Panasonic is a whole different ballgame with a smaller sensor and not really competition. At least when it comes to the 5D.

As far as Canon is concerned, they already have a video camera lineup with the C series and their smaller chip video cameras. So video is a secondary system on their DSLRs.

With all of that said, I think Canon is really only concerned with Nikon. Their old long time rival in the photography market. The two dominate camera systems that most people still turn to. Which means that video on the 5DmkIV only has to be competitive with whatever Nikon is going to put in their cameras in the near future. Which at this point is still only 1080p60.

Canon can get a rough idea of what Nikon might do by looking at Sony cameras, since Nikon uses Sony sensors. So Canon puts out a higher resolution camera because Sony has high res sensors that Nikon may use in upcoming cameras. The same may be true for UHD. If they suspect that Nikon may put UHD recording in their upcoming cameras, the 5DmkIV may have it as well. If not, I don't think they're going to feel any pressure to do it. But I think that the A7RII sensor is a sensor Nikon may be interested in, high resolution and 4K, so there is a good chance Canon may feel that pressure irrespective of their own C series because I think Canon sees that series as a separate thing with different ergonomics and workflow for a different market.
 
As for myself. I've lost interest in the 5D series for video. I've never actually owned a 5D of any sort. They've always been on the radar so I always keep checking in to see what is going on, but for stills and video I've done fine with a 60D for several years now and just made the jump to a C100mkII for pro video work a few months back. I don't personally own the C100mkII but the company I work for 40+ hours a week does, so that's fine by me and I've gotten a little spoiled by it. Having the C100mkII sort of cancels out any desire for a 5D when it comes to video work. The overall ergonomics and features are just better than I can ever expect Canon to put into a 5D camera. The only desire for a 5D for me at this point would be for stills and I'd be just as happy with a used mkII for that, which can be had for around a grand these days.

When it comes to a camera for dong short films for myself, I'm most interested in the BMPCC since I love the look people get out of it. Shoestring budget short films. Because to be honest, if I'm doing anything more than that, I'd have the budget for at least a C100mkII or better. So in my mind, the 5D as a video camera doesn't have the kind of pull it had before we had all these other alternatives.
 
My prediction is that Canon will release a camera that can shoot 1080P at 24fps and have at least 10 full stops of dynamic range. They will market as "Canon, pushing high definition past the point of embarrassment."
 
My prediction for 5D MKIV - 24 MPX full frame, 17.6 MPX oversampled 4K, 305 Mbps recording bit rate, 10-bit internal 4:2:2, 13 video stops in some form of a C-Log, Dual-Pixel AF, CFast. Overall, nothing revolutionary but nonetheless a well thought of, workable solution for its weight class.
 
I agree on a lot of your specs DLD but I do not think Canon will put an internal 10-bit 4:2:2 codec anywhere near their DSLRs. The C-series barely has this in the upper reaches.

If Canon wanted to go after this market (which is up for debate) they would add the nice internal codec as well as an XLR audio attachment that was logical and easy to use. But I am not holding my breath.
 
How much longer will manufacturers reserve 10-bit 4:2:2 for the upper end? We've had 8-bit 4:2:0 (or 4:1:1) for two decades. Back then, hard drives cost $200 per gigabyte. That was when everyone was listening to Ace of Base.

AVCHD is 3 megabytes per second. If you kept everything the same but changed it to 10-bit 4:2:2, then it would be just 5 megabytes per second.

Will it be the year 2035 and we're still going to be like, "Well, you can't expect 10-bit 4:2:2 in a DSLR"? I mean, seriously, how much longer!
 
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I know, It sucks. We can't even get it in a $4,000 DVX200. If the C100 II still has AVCHD I would not expect any DSLR from Canon to have it. I think this is the last separator for the camera manufacturers. Cell phone cameras have detail and resolution. Even decent color at times but pure data is the one way to make something truly professional. Insane that you can put a non-recent CF card into a 5DMKIII and shoot raw at 90MBps but "pro"-ish video cameras are at 3-5 MB a second.

I am really enjoying my PX270 as 10bit 4:2:2 makes a difference to me. If the DVX200 had a better codec and a real f2.8 lens I would be getting one.
 
combatentropy said:
How much longer will manufacturers reserve 10-bit 4:2:2 for the upper end?! ...
Click to expand...
Well, if one adds up the current price of GH4 (~ $1,200-$1,300) that has a 10-bit 4:2:2 HDMI out and the lowest priced 4K 10-bit 4:2:2 external recorders (Atomos Ninja Assassin @ $1,300 or Video Devices PIX E5 @ $1,400), we get a combined $2,500-$2,700 investment in 10-bit 4:2:2 and a pretty nice codec to boot. SSD's are extra but their prices are falling precipitously as well. Now, if you piled those on top of each other and had "King Kong" Bundy (how's that for the 1980's reference?) sit on them until the two separate units melted into one another ... well, you'd have a pile of junk. But, at the same time, I don't see why one couldn't combine those two units into one 5D size body, especially if one excluded the monitor part.

PS. Ace of Base? In the 1990's, I listened - and banged my head - to the Ace of Spades!
 
DLD said:
Well, if one adds up the current price of GH4 (~ $1,200-$1,300) that has a 10-bit 4:2:2 HDMI out and the lowest priced 4K 10-bit 4:2:2 external recorders (Atomos Ninja Assassin @ $1,300 or Video Devices PIX E5 @ $1,400), we get a combined $2,500-$2,700 investment in 10-bit 4:2:2 and a pretty nice codec to boot. SSD's are extra but their prices are falling precipitously as well. Now, if you piled those on top of each other and had "King Kong" Bundy (how's that for the 1980's reference?) sit on them until the two separate units melted into one another ... well, you'd have a pile of junk. But, at the same time, I don't see why one couldn't combine those two units into one 5D size body, especially if one excluded the monitor part.

PS. Ace of Base? In the 1990's, I listened - and banged my head - to the Ace of Spades!
Click to expand...

Haha! That was a fun post. Go Motörhead!
 
That's a good point about the current high end cell phones that can shoot 4k, granted the sensor is tiny, but still, it goes to show how they can cram the tech into a cell phone that really offers it as a secondary operation to the primary function. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see 10 bit 4k in a phone before we see it in a canon dslr. That's how much faith I have in Canon. just as a reminder, think back, T2i to present, it's essentially the same crappy image. Of course they expanded on new ways to focus the crappy image through touch screen, but it's the same damn image. The most baffling part of the equation is Canon started the dslr revolution, one might think it would be something to capitalize on, but apparently not the case. Besides, there's plenty of room for several dslr models with great video features that wouldn't have an impact on the cine line. Sony was able to see the potential of this and has taken full advantage of Canons decision not to tap into the market. Hence the moderate decrease in their dslr sales over the last few years and is still declining. You snooze you lose!!
 
maranfilms said:
Canon started the dslr revolution
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by accident.

I've worked in four large companies, and I know exactly why Canon, Panasonic, and the rest, act like they're crawling around in the dark, drunk. It's because videos like this are not too far from the truth:


Corporations in any industry lumber forward in a cowardly, wasteful, weak way --- unless someone like Steve Jobs or Kelly Johnson says I don't care, I'm just going to do whatever it takes to make this product happen.

It's entirely possible for a small group of engineers who know what they're doing to run circles around a corporation.
 
Canon's general policy seems to be "don't fix if it's making a profit". The manufacturing costs of a model must be minuscule toward the end of its production run, yet the prices charged for it remain fairly close to the original. Imagine a computer manufacturer releasing a desktop/laptop/tablet/smartphone today but with 2012 specs. It'd be nigh impossible to get a half of the 2012 price for the equivalent. But 5D MKIII still sells for a respectable $2,500 and so Canon's keeps riding that golden horse into the sunset.

In fairness, Nikon is only marginally better here and that may lead to a speculation that the Japanese photo-video companies - and they essentially control 100% of the consumer niche, with only ARRI making major inroads in the high end pro camera market - will decide between each other who gets what slice of the pie and when they will get it. Panasonic was given the low end 4K video. Nikon and Canon kept their stills domination. Sony's jumping into the $5,000-$10,000 pro camera and the $3,000-$4,000 hybrid markets. Panasonic then gets a "large sensor" 4K fixed lens run&gun niche. Et cetera, et cetera.

From the consumer point of view, there's something for everyone at every price range ... except it may not be in his chosen ecosystem. And waiting until there is takes a while longer because these companies allow the innovators to recoup their investments without having to engage in price wars. Thus Panasonic had a year to itself with sub-$2,000 lines in GH4 and LS100 until Sony came out with RX 100 IV and RX10 II. By this measurement, Sony should get a full year of A7SII and A7RII until Canon or Nikon release 4K models in the $3,000-$3,5000 range. So, should 5D MKIV be announced prior to the NAB'16 and come out late summer of 2016, it'd be pretty close to matching that one year non-compete period with the Sony A7 line.

Naturally, Sony long could have made an A99 based model - big body, D810 sensor, internal 4K, QXD cards, etc. - but it won't because it has an agreement with Nikon and Canon and thus will let them have a year with D5 and 1D X MKII first. Once again, the consumer gets a fine product but not from the company that he expects.

At some points, this will all settle down and all the non-compete agreements will expire and each major brand will have a full lineup with the latest technology. But, as far as 4K goes, it isn't settled down yet.
 
This is very good assessment of the puppet strings that make this market so confusing at times. Being from the US, this type of business behavior is not allowed in our system, so it seems foreign. It also demonstrates the power of the "disrupter" companies like RED and Blackmagic Designs because as they are outside the collusion they can throw wrenches in the big plan. So far this has not happened in the still world but has in the video world.

Canon is still able to move under-spec'd DSLRs because of their lens ecosystem and their end-use functionality. Basically on a still shoot they just work. For my still work I have no need to upgrade the 5DMKIII. Their are things I might want, but nothing is holding my product back. Video is a different story, but video is "extra" on these cameras anyway.
 
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