Covid-19 (Novel Coronavirus) - Effects on the production industry

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NorBro said:
Not sure if anyone posted this, but psychic/author Sylvia Browne said the following in her 2008 book "End of Days" : "In around 2020, a severe pneumonia-like illness will spread throughout the globe, attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes and resisting all known treatments.
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This was a diary by one of the early sufferers - a 25-yo British man in Wuhan.

A short excerpt.

Day 10: I’m still running a temperature. I’ve finished the quarter-bottle of whisky, and I don’t feel well enough to go out and get any more. It doesn’t matter: I don’t think hot toddies were making much difference.

Day 11: Suddenly, I’m feeling better, physically at least. The flu has lifted. But the poor kitten has died. I don’t know whether it had what I’ve got, or whether cats can even get human flu. I feel miserable.

Day 12: I’ve had a relapse. Just as I thought the flu was getting better, it has come back with a vengeance. My breathing is laboured. Just getting up and going to the bathroom leaves me panting and exhausted. I’m sweating, burning up, dizzy and shivering. The television is on but I can’t make sense of it. This is a nightmare.

Day 13: I arrived back at my apartment late yesterday evening. The doctor prescribed antibiotics for the pneumonia but I’m reluctant to take them — I’m worried that my body will become resistant to the drugs and, if I ever get really ill and need them, they won’t work. I prefer to beat this with traditional remedies if I can.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8075633/First-British-victim-25-describes-coronavirus.html

It looks like the Chinese doctors misdiagnosed him but that he "cured" himself or that the disease simply ran its course. Personally, I would infer - although, I wouldn't call it a proof - that his conditions improved after that quarter-bottle but, that he was so infected by then, the symptoms had returned. I'd make an argument that another quarter bottle and then another would drive the symptoms out sooner than he was able to achieve with his Tiger Balm alone.

FWIW, my personal experience with the "regular" cold/flu was following a similar path, albeit not with such strength. A few sips of brandy might bring the cough down and alleviate the hardest parts of fighting it but I'd still have the lingering effects for another week or so. By then, the symptoms would, however, be far more manageable.

The above is quite an interesting read in any case.
 
I wonder how long places can stay closed for. Anything that saves us money such as not attending events, not eating out, etc., we can afford to do indefinitely. But if you run a business or have a job that requires going out, you can only afford to not work for so long before you bank account is depleted. And what then, move into a cardboard box and hope the other homeless don't infect you? Well, no, go back to work, and accept the risks. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford to not work for a long duration of time. Self quarantining can only work as a temporary solution for as long as one can afford to. Once the funds run out, it's back to work. At the end of the day, people who are on the quarantine bandwagon will likely have to accept going out in the world to work and taking on the risks, with the risks being, you may get a virus for a few weeks which probably won't kill you, which sounds like a better deal than living homeless in alienation and starving to death because you have no money for food and can't go to soup kitchens for fear of getting a virus.



More of my clients are postponing shoots. I wonder when the next job will be. Fortunately I have a lot of money saved up at the moment. Various projects for my house will have to be put on hold until I see how business goes over the next month or two.

Might be time for an early mid-life crisis career change. Architect has oft been my mid-life crisis career change option, or truck driver. I still see a lot of trucks on the road. I'm sure they're doing fine. I also need to divorce my wife as part of my mid-life crisis but I'm not married so I need to find someone quick. Perhaps I should add to my online dating profiles, "Don't have coronavirus (yet)."
 
Eric Coughlin said:
I wonder how long places can stay closed for. Anything that saves us money such as not attending events, not eating out, etc., we can afford to do indefinitely. But if you run a business or have a job that requires going out, you can only afford to not work for so long before you bank account is depleted. And what then, move into a cardboard box and hope the other homeless don't infect you? Well, no, go back to work, and accept the risks. Most Americans live paycheck to paycheck and can't afford to not work for a long duration of time. Self quarantining can only work as a temporary solution for as long as one can afford to. Once the funds run out, it's back to work. At the end of the day, people who are on the quarantine bandwagon will likely have to accept going out in the world to work and taking on the risks, with the risks being, you may get a virus for a few weeks which probably won't kill you, which sounds like a better deal than living homeless in alienation and starving to death because you have no money for food and can't go to soup kitchens for fear of getting a virus.
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I think if we're lucky, the shutdown will keep the virus from spreading too quick and overwhelming hospitals (like what is happening in Italy). After several months, enough people will have been infected and recovered to slowly start opening stuff up again. Hopefully, the virus will dissipate in the summer and doesn't return before a good vaccine is out.
 
Batutta said:
I think if we're lucky, the shutdown will keep the virus from spreading too quick and overwhelming hospitals (like what is happening in Italy). After several months, enough people will have been infected and recovered to slowly start opening stuff up again. Hopefully, the virus will dissipate in the summer and doesn't return before a good vaccine is out.
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Exactly!
 
Very likely. However, any temporary sign of life is better than a cadaver...
AAPL and MSFT (currently) +5.5%, S&P +4.5%
2hrs to close, the day is young and I am not, as I like to say. But any reprieve from the death spiral is welcome.

And in trying to follow Buffet's advice to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy, I might dip my toe in and pick up some AAPL.
It could (probably will) fall further, but
since nobody knows where the bottom is,
and it will come back at some point, now could be a good time for an AAPL snack... nothing large and gluttonous.
I don't have any standing orders in, but am feeling hopeful at the moment (yes, emotion, I know).
 
Wife is a teacher, just found out her school district will be closed for a minimum of two weeks.
For her, two weeks paid vacation! There is an upside for some. Which is good since all of my work is
canceling and rescheduling.
 
Liam Hall said:
I was wrong, it went up! Bigly.

:-)
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20200313_163115.jpg

Bought some AAPL, nice home stretch before the close. Don't know that things have bottomed out, but happy today.

And my NY cold appears to be gradually waning. #relieved. (My wife was really freaked out, partly for me, but she has COPD, a prime candidate for serious complications).

Shootwise, one cancellation today, and one late April booking (we'll see).

Happy Friday the 13th!
 
Screenshot_20200313-181526_Google.jpgScreenshot_20200313-181044_Google.jpg20200313_181154.jpgScreenshot_20200313-181526_Google.jpg

Looks like travel did well today. Really well.
Surprising with all the limitations...

Don't know if it's a sign (haven't read my tea leaves) that
the travel sector is starting to recover already (how?),
or what?
 
The life of a freelancer can be risky, live by the sword, die by the sword. That's why it's useful, if you are married, that one spouse should have a secure job that's unlikely to be outsourced, or shut down in an emergency or market collapse - perhaps an "essential" government position or the like... the money is not much, but that's not the point, the security (and retirement pension for old age!) is the whole point. You'd be shocked how many couples I know who are structured like that - one with a secure job, the other throws the dice hoping for a big payout pursuing their dreams.

I wonder if this pandemic will have a profound social impact long term. If the pandemic is over soon and not so severe, everyone will go back to normal and forget all about it. If it's more severe or long-lasting, you might see some major adjustments in how people arrange their lives... judging just by the people I know, a lot are thinking some habits should stay long term (such as avoiding touching surfaces, washing hands etc.).
 
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