Covid-19 (Novel Coronavirus) - Effects on the production industry

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QuickHitRecord

QuickHitRecord

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After ravaging China, it seems like Covid-19 has an international foothold and will likely be a part of a lot of people's daily lives until a vaccine can be found. I'm wondering how this situation might impact those of us in video production. There has already been a lot of talk about the expected slowdown in camera releases as well as supply chain issues. A couple of the annual tradeshows may even be cancelled. But for those of us who already have a kit and are making a living in production, what challenges might we be facing?

I have been watching news coverage of some of the hoops that people in China are jumping through to minimize the spread of this virus.

If that's what it takes to deliver a pizza, what does crewing a shoot with actors/presenters/subjects look like if we get to that level of proliferation? What kind of safety measures can/should/must we take? Are we taking the cast/crew's temperatures throughout the day? Will this lead to new set positions in charge of decontaminating surfaces? Will clients expect to monitor from home? What happens to travel shoots? How can Hair and (especially) Make Up minimize risks to themselves?

And some BIGGER questions:

Will the demand for videos/commercials/films dwindle while we deal with this health hazard? Are there any opportunities here? Is there anything that we are positioned to do with our craft to help others?

Clearly, no one here knows what is going to happen. Maybe there's a new vaccine in a month or two, and everything goes back to normal. I'll bet some of you have some thoughts on the matter. Maybe some of you are even taking steps to prepare for the coming months. Please share your thoughts/ideas/concerns. And stay safe out there.
 
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I hope this is a wake-up call and manufacturing becomes a lot more diversified and hopefully even brings more back domestically. As we have gotten more “advanced” as a society, we are more and more living on the razors edge. Everything is so fragile, now. One bad thing happening in the wrong part of a country and everything can come to a screeching halt. Just look at the other year when we had a hurricane and flooding in some places and in the blink of an eye it’s almost impossible to find bottled water anywhere in the country and fuel becomes in short supply, as well. And Lord help us when something takes the internet and/or cell service down. A few weeks ago, we were driving back from a shoot a few hours away and without warning, Verizon had essentially a massive blackout/failure on the east coast for roughly 30 mins(never saw it reported, but found maps showing it afterwards). We were on the highway and knew where we were going, but just think about it, because of how much we rely on our phones for everything, now. No ability to make or receive texts or phone calls. No email. No map apps(unless you have the maps DL’d), no music or whatever streaming, etc. 20-25 years ago, no big deal, but today...
 
Event / experiential / live streaming projects are affected, along with conferences, and corporate gatherings. Film festivals and award shows are also going to be affected. All primary and secondary video business these generate will go away.
 
DLD said:
According to CDC, 80,000 died from flu in the US in 2017-18.
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True, but misleading. If Coronavirus were spread as widely as the flu, it would kill several million people in the US alone. Its fatality rate is twenty times higher than the flu.
 
That is about the same as traffic deaths and 2,6 times gun violence deaths. And less than the 1.294.000 people who died of cardiovascular disease. in 2017-2018

Influenza and Pneumonia 50.000.

But it is hard to predict the future.

all-leading-causes-of-de.jpg
 
It's going to be a rough year economically. Vaccines take time to test and approve. Most experts have said we're at least a year out from being able to give mass vaccinations. And that's if a vaccine can even work on this virus. Some coronaviruses only cause limited immunity after you recover that lasts only a couple months. It's a very real possibility that this could be a virus like the flu that recurs every year and becomes a new reality we have to deal with. Containment seems to work to a degree, but few governments can take the draconian measures they took in China. Trying to do that in the US would probably end in folly.
 
Our industry's equipment supply chain has already been impacted.

I just received my first formal letter from a major global vendor last week indicating that Coronavirus has already impacted their ability to continue supplying equipment.
 
Covid-19 is dangerous because people become infectious before symptoms appear. Other than that it is like a bad flu. People in poor health or with compromised immune systems are most at risk of dying.
 
I've seen commenters on other discussions about it taking a very cavalier attitude and calling it "fear mongering". I don't think I've seen any "fear mongering" going on, but there is nothing wrong with being cautious and smart. As they say, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

And as Terry said, there have already been equipment manufacturers affected by this. I ordered some new lights the other week and the charging plate that I wanted was not is stock and the distributor said that there is no telling when they will have them again, because of the disruption caused by this. Also, anyone following the Komodo development over on RED User, will see that RED and their suppliers had to do some adjusting to move parts sourcing/certain manufacturing aspects to Mexico, but there are still some things that they can only get in China, because the manufacture is apparently the best there is for that item.
 
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Batutta said:
True, but misleading. If Coronavirus were spread as widely as the flu, it would kill several million people in the US alone. Its fatality rate is twenty times higher than the flu.
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Even so, how easy/difficult is it to pick up one vs. the other? The assumption is that it spreads quickly.

Or does it?

PS. Most of cancers, heart attacks, strokes and Alz ought to be attributable to old age, at least, in the way it's currently defined. (lung cancers are usually smoking dependent)
 
In terms of flu ratios - CDC estimates that every tenth American will get it in any given year (alas, I am far ahead of that average). So, if of 32 million that will be infected, 32,000 die, it'll be 1/10th of 1% (.1). If the Corona V is twenty times deadlier, then China, assuming the same averages, would have 3,000,000 deaths. (1.5B x 10% = 150,000,000 x 2% = 3,000,000)

Assuming that the Chinese government fibs a bit, it has so far reported 2,912 deaths. A typical flu pandemic, given the Chinese population, would be around 150,000.

PS. None of the above means that individuals shouldn't be taking precautions.
 
It's serious but it's also getting silly.

The higher mortality rate is a very serious thing on a global level, but that doesn't mean it's a very serious thing for YOU personally. The media makes this sound like the apocalypse. I understand the desire to contain this ASAP with aggressive measures, it's an expensive thing on the entire economy to have out there and its very dangerous to a small percentage of the population. That, and of course, we don't know for sure exactly what the virus is (while unlikely, it's possible that it is biphasic and will strike back harder, or cause long term chronic effects).

Silly in the sense that media makes money from the drama, and people interpret the serious government response as an overly personal threat. I'm actually offended by the way the news reports this because it causes hysteria. I have tracked the virus daily in preparation for a tentative trip to Indonesia soon. I watched the stats. Every few days, the percentage of deaths to full recoveries drops further (ie actual mortality rate drops). The total case numbers creep up, of course, but by a few thousand over the week. *Reported* cases only, sure. Regardless, this seems... expected... and yet you turn on the news, what do you hear? Super dramatic presentation, "VIRUS NOW SURGES PAST 80,000 CASES! DEATH TOLL crosses over 3000 as the COVID-19 CLAIMS MORE LIVES". Holy cow.

Bottom line, an abundance of caution is great. There will be supply chain slow downs, medical shortages, and many things interrupted. But we should all be approaching this with a calm grip on the facts. None of this is unexpected, and it certainly does NOT call for the ridiculous reaction we're seeing here in Oregon. I went into a coffee shop on a Sunday morning that is normally packed. Ghosttown, 2 people in there, one wearing a mask. Lines out the door at Costco. Walmart shelves picked clean. I understand why Nike is deep cleaning their campus and putting a hold on all domestic/international flights except business critical for the time being, that's great prudence and they are a hub for travel and people congregating. But the way average people talk about this is over the top fear based.

Keep calm... carry on.
 
DLD said:
Even so, how easy/difficult is it to pick up one vs. the other? The assumption is that it spreads quickly.

Or does it?
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We don't know exactly, but early studies show an average RO of 3.28 and a median of 2.79. For comparison, the flu is 1.3

RO means how many people, on average, an infected person will infect.
 
Cary Knoop said:
We don't know exactly, but early studies show an average RO of 3.28 and a median of 2.79. For comparison, the flu is 1.3

RO means how many people, on average, an infected person will infect.
Click to expand...

The combination of a double - let's take a conservative estimate rather than 2.5-3 - and a much higher death rate should mean a huge death toll in China alone. But 3,000 in a nation of 1.5 billion, let alone a nation of 1.5B living and commuting in tight spaces, seems a statistically minuscule number.

Additionally, the fatality percentage varies according to age, sex and the pre-existing conditions.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 
Some of the lacking nuance in the media, reports, or elsewhere is what we mean by "serious" and "not a big deal".

With an R0 possible around 2-2.5x as high as the flu, and a mortality rate about 14-23x higher than the flu, this is very serious and a very big deal. As governments respond and we experience all sorts of expenses, delays, economic hits, 401k stock hits, etc. it impacts every facet of commerce and life. It's a very big deal.

On the other hand, symptomatically for 95% of people the disease will be somewhere between a very mild cold and a case of the flu... meaning... it's really not a big deal (81% of cases mild, 14% severe but non critical). So it's really 5% of people who are going to experience critical conditions, and less than half in this group will die, and this group we are talking about are generally people who are older, with pre-existing conditions, or otherwise immune compromised. Kids under ~9 don't even get it from what we've seen. So, in this sense, for most of us healthwise, it's just another year with another strain of mild disease. NBD.

So, the coronavirus is both very, very serious and also not a very big deal at all, depending on what angle you take.

Pragmatically, it is impacting my parents as they draw near to retirement and their 401k has dipped at a very inconvenient time. It is affecting me business wise, as I have sizable contract I am pensive about taking to Indonesia... not pensive because of contracting the disease, but logistically as it pertains to possible quarantine measures, travel restrictions, or supply shortages on ground. Some close friends are worried about their immune compromised siblings and parents. Etc.
 
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