C100: Canon layoffs

[jcs]

Tesla is using 8 cameras, 12 sonars, 1 radar, GPS+map, and steering + pedals (they don't mention gyro + accelerometer- they are surely using those too (probably also temperature and even humidity and water sensors)):

No LIDAR/lasers- Musks is not a fan of them.

They are getting their machine learning training data from all of their current customers as they drive every day (not clear if there's an opt out option re: privacy). That is, the (Machine Learning) ML systems use human reactions to real-world events to be used as training data (after human filtering + 'labeling' (an ML term)). They can train all they want, it's not enough without consciousness to be as safe as an alert competent human. Even the massively simpler auto pilot systems for aircraft still fail after all these years (simpler in the sense of obstacles).

 

[DLD]

The test cars are probably already much safer than an average driver but no one thinks s/he an average driver. So, the idea would be to start with cars driven by the youngest and, as Paul said above, the oldest.

Now, let's get back to what the heck these smart phones are doing and why the ILC's don't. Or do they?

The low light test of the Huawei P30.

This is the general review of the P30 as a camera.

So, who needs an ILC now?

 

[jcs]

The test cars are probably already much safer than an average driver but no one thinks s/he an average driver...
So, who needs an ILC now?

Certain aspects of automated crash avoidance will be better than any human can do, right now, simply due to reaction time and automated estimation of physics. Overall even the best systems aren't close to being safer than the average driver in the general case. This is excluding driving under the influence, not paying attention, recklessness, fatigue, etc. An AI guidance system for young/old drivers could be beneficial until much better AI is available for the general case. People trusting the current AI systems have paid a heavy price: https://www.google.com/search?q=tesla+autopilot+crashes&oq=tesla+autopilot+crashes . Note that manufacturer statistics are spin- if you don't believe what is written here, do a deep dive into the tech and find the truth for yourself (vs. simply believing what others tell you, including me). For now it should be illegal for fully automated driving- namely steering. Currently it's stated that one must pay attention while the AI drives the car- people don't listen and let the AI drive and crashes that would not normally happen, happen. The statistics spin isn't telling the whole story.

Cameras: for certain shots my iPhone X is great. For professional shots of people, not there yet by a long shot (both stills and video). Tiny cameras (not necessarily just phones- how about a ring camera!) will indeed pass everything we have today. Until then, use the best tools of the time to make the art, tell the story, capture the moment. It's not about the gear it's what you do with it

 

[Mitch Gross]

I’m waiting for the day all the automated car all announce suddenly an in unison “The only winning move is not to play,” and then just take everyone home whether they want to go there or not.

 

[Paul F]

Imagine the fun kids will have sitting roadside on a busy street blasting cars with blinding radar or laser blasts to confuse self driving cars. What fun, eh kids?

Road rage takes a whole new perspective.

 

[DLD]

... Cameras: for certain shots my iPhone X is great. For professional shots of people, not there yet by a long shot (both stills and video)...

I have condo building neighbors - husband, wife, two kids. The husband and the wife each has had smartphones for a long time. After a few years of my caustic remarks, the husband has gotten pretty good with his iPhone. The wife is somewhat better in her stills but still pans her videos as if she is riding a carousel at 100 miles an hour. Neither is likely to ever purchase an ILC or even a system camera. Which brings me to the pro gear. It's far superior to an iPhone indeed. But how many pros are out there? During the analog/film era, anyone interested in photography bought either an SLR or a point&shoot because there was nothing else for a long time. (video cameras came down in price to the consumer level in the mid-80's) But now, your average consumer's smart phone is good enough for him/her. And pros alone won't be enough for the Big Four to absorb the fixed costs/overhead - both R&D and corporate - over the number of units they purchase and remain in black.

As a side note, let's assume that the photo pros only buy models priced at above $2,000. 1DXII, D5, A7RIIII, A9, S1R, 5DMKIV, Z7, D850 + the medium format. Do they all combined account for more than 200,000-250,000 out of ~ 9,000,000 units sold per year? I doubt it.

 

[jcs]

I have condo building neighbors - husband, wife, two kids. The husband and the wife each has had smartphones for a long time. After a few years of my caustic remarks, the husband has gotten pretty good with his iPhone. The wife is somewhat better in her stills but still pans her videos as if she is riding a carousel at 100 miles an hour. Neither is likely to ever purchase an ILC or even a system camera. Which brings me to the pro gear. It's far superior to an iPhone indeed. But how many pros are out there? During the analog/film era, anyone interested in photography bought either an SLR or a point&shoot because there was nothing else for a long time. (video cameras came down in price to the consumer level in the mid-80's) But now, your average consumer's smart phone is good enough for him/her. And pros alone won't be enough for the Big Four to absorb the fixed costs/overhead - both R&D and corporate - over the number of units they purchase and remain in black.

As a side note, let's assume that the photo pros only buy models priced at above $2,000. 1DXII, D5, A7RIIII, A9, S1R, 5DMKIV, Z7, D850 + the medium format. Do they all combined account for more than 200,000-250,000 out of ~ 9,000,000 units sold per year? I doubt it.

Lots of people get tired of their phone cameras (same as with point & shoots). Then they find it fun buying and collecting lenses for bigger cameras. Seems like there's lots of collectors out there that perhaps collect more than they shoot

Even when computational cameras arrive, people will still have fun doing it the old way with physical hardware. Smaller market? Sure, will carry on for a while. It's not like film vs. digital: the 'old way' still provides fast results. it's already possible to WiFi/BT photos straight from the camera to the phone for quick edit & upload.

 

[DLD]

Lots of people get tired of their phone cameras (same as with point & shoots). Then they find it fun buying and collecting lenses for bigger cameras...

Here's where we disagree. It's not going to happen in large enough numbers to sustain the photo-video industry in its present or even marginally reduced form. The gap in performance has been the only factor that enticed many to buy an ILC (or even some high quality bridge cameras) but that gap hasn't so much shrunk as moved into the territory where the difference is minuscule. Low light, zoom, resolution differences are becoming irrelevant. Much like HD being a lot superior to SD, 4K being somewhat better than HD and 8K being an afterthought off 4K, the measureables are getting close enough to no longer matter.

As a side note, since we had talked about cars. Back in 1986, Porsche released a 282 hp turbo 911 (930) that went 0-60 in 4.5 seconds. At the time, a sports car was lucky to get under 8 and well upholstered family sedans were in the 13's. Porsche was priced at $36,000 vs. an average car price of around $9,000. Now, one can buy a twin turbo 365 hp Kia Stinger for about $50,000 that goes 0-60 in ~ 4.4 and a Honda Civic R (305 hp) with a 0-60 in ~ 4.9 for $36,000. The next generation of the electric twin-chargers will shrink the gap even further. Mahle demonstrated a 1.2l VW GTI with ~ 215 hp/liter engine (268 hp), bringing a high performance down to the masses. Porsche is still Porsche, with a 911 being a mid-3's and a top end turbo in around 3s. But that gap is now for the serious drivers only. On a professional track. And the return on investment of going above $50K is negligible.

PS. There are other factors, obviously, but the electromagnetic suspension, electronic limited slip differential and torque vectoring are also very important and you can have all of them for under $40K.

PPS. According to rumors, the soon-to-be-premiered eighth generation Corvette was developing so much power - 900-1,000, allegedly - that its body was suffering from the metal/fiberglass fatigue in a twisty track type driving. In this iteration, it's a hypercar for a little over $100,000. Who needs a $250,000 Porsche or a $350,000 Ferrari now.

 

[Cary Knoop]

PPS. According to rumors, the soon-to-be-premiered eighth generation Corvette was developing so much power - 900-1,000, allegedly - that its body was suffering from the metal/fiberglass fatigue in a twisty track type driving. In this iteration, it's a hypercar for a little over $100,000. Who needs a $250,000 Porsche or a $350,000 Ferrari now.

Well, nobody really needs any of those cars.

 

[jcs]

Here's where we disagree. It's not going to happen in large enough numbers to sustain the photo-video industry in its present or even marginally reduced form. The gap in performance has been the only factor that enticed many to buy an ILC (or even some high quality bridge cameras) but that gap hasn't so much shrunk as moved into the territory where the difference is minuscule. Low light, zoom, resolution differences are becoming irrelevant. Much like HD being a lot superior to SD, 4K being somewhat better than HD and 8K being an afterthought off 4K, the measureables are getting close enough to no longer matter.

As a side note, since we had talked about cars. Back in 1986, Porsche released a 282 hp turbo 911 (930) that went 0-60 in 4.5 seconds. At the time, a sports car was lucky to get under 8 and well upholstered family sedans were in the 13's. Porsche was priced at $36,000 vs. an average car price of around $9,000. Now, one can buy a twin turbo 365 hp Kia Stinger for about $50,000 that goes 0-60 in ~ 4.4 and a Honda Civic R (305 hp) with a 0-60 in ~ 4.9 for $36,000. The next generation of the electric twin-chargers will shrink the gap even further. Mahle demonstrated a 1.2l VW GTI with ~ 215 hp/liter engine (268 hp), bringing a high performance down to the masses. Porsche is still Porsche, with a 911 being a mid-3's and a top end turbo in around 3s. But that gap is now for the serious drivers only. On a professional track. And the return on investment of going above $50K is negligible.

PS. There are other factors, obviously, but the electromagnetic suspension, electronic limited slip differential and torque vectoring are also very important and you can have all of them for under $40K.

PPS. According to rumors, the soon-to-be-premiered eighth generation Corvette was developing so much power - 900-1,000, allegedly - that its body was suffering from the metal/fiberglass fatigue in a twisty track type driving. In this iteration, it's a hypercar for a little over $100,000. Who needs a $250,000 Porsche or a $350,000 Ferrari now.

Maybe it's time to take a meta view of internet (and all) discussions, and instead of agree/disagreeing understand that everyone has a different point of view, which is equally valid to each person. Quantum physics gives some clues: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/quantum-experiment-space-confirms-reality-what-you-make-it-0 .

So then the question is, what is one's motivation in discussions? My motivation has always been to share accurate information that is backed up by evidence, and to accept truth that differs from my previous view immediately and keep moving forward. I've engaged in countless debates, patiently providing more and more evidence, while the opposing view proponent(s) get successively frustrated and emotional, resulting in angry ad hominem at which point I lose motivation to continue the conversation. The ego (self-identity preservation control system of consciousness) is the root of my behavior, as it is for everyone. I'm operating from a position of logic, building proofs, and seeking truth. When everyone is using that process, 'debates' can be enjoyable as new things are discovered. When the opposing view(s) is/are driven by simply needing to preserve their view of reality (ego + emotion without logic), we get the classic 'internet brawl' format the devolves into essentially chaos (no useful discovery or progress toward truth happening, other than perhaps those interested in studying psychology and human behavior).

Living in La Jolla and Beverly Hills, I did the sports car thing and to generalize, the materialism thing, and once one's experienced the best of the best (either by owning or having friends with these things), one's point of view can change significantly. People who can afford a new Ferrari will never consider a Corvette, no matter how fast it is. The level of build quality, design, and artwork of even a more closely priced Porsche or Audi (R8 and up) and how the public view the brands is on a whole different level. At the Ferrari level, the latest McLaren's are the new hot rods. Around BH, McLarens and Lamborghinis are more common than Ferraris. Seeing Bugattis, Koenigseggs, Paganis and other hyper hyper cars around here is no big deal. Everyone trying to out impress everyone else lol. Many driven by young billionaires from around the world. Where else can they strut their stuff, Monaco or Dubai perhaps? The Laguna Seca Monterrey Historics with the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance, and smaller venues around Orange County are other options. The ego again out having fun. There was a time when a Honda Civic with slicks and a big single turbo + N20 could slay most of these cars. Not anymore, the AWD V6/V8/V10/V12/V16 (turbo) cars are quite amazing (even the rear drive McLaren 720s- see the drag races on YouTube). In the final analysis, the AWD electrics win with 100% torque at zero RPM (top speed still goes to the gas cars- the electrics will pass them soon). See the Rimac CTwo and Nio EP9 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47418405 . Fastest cars in the world for 2019 (top speed, not acceleration (electrics already win)): https://www.themanual.com/auto/fastest-cars-in-the-world/

What's the analogy with high end cars and cameras? Take a look at Leica. Every now and then I drop by the Leica store on Beverly Blvd (I walk there- and most places around BH- because only a Nobody Walks in LA lol). I admire the cameras and lenses, and the salespeople say business is going well. My understanding is that people want something different, something high end, something exclusive, and that is art. No matter how good cheap cameras become on a technical level, human beings love to acquire art, in its many forms, especially when they have made a lot of money. What else are they going to do with it? Once functional practicality is reached, it's all art, entertainment, fun. From my point of view there will always be a camera market which will continue to evolve until the concept of a market changes to whatever is next

 

[DLD]

Maybe it's time to take a meta view of internet (and all) discussions, and instead of agree/disagreeing understand that everyone has a different point of view, which is equally valid to each person. Quantum physics gives some clues: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/10/quantum-experiment-space-confirms-reality-what-you-make-it-0 .

So then the question is, what is one's motivation in discussions? ...

Asides aside, if one looks at the title of this thread, one might infer that the Canon layoffs are due to their diminishing revenues and profits due to the declining sales. Now, those two may be directly or loosely connected but, if you assume the former, then you may also assume that there's a global trend indicating the eventual annihilation of the photo-video industry as we know it. This demise/aka the end of the product cycle is likely to have significant consequences for those making a living off these products or related services.

As to cars, I spot the parallels to the photo-video industry where the "meat of the market" keeps moving lower and lower and a price-to-value ratio higher and higher. A crossover based on a Ford Mustang chassis will not be confused for a Macan but it's likely to be a formidable offering that will be offered at half the price. That will be a major benefit for a consumer and likely a huge setback for the luxury brands.

PS. Side note on performance cars - once speed/power/track time specs have commoditized themselves, the finishing will be the next contested territory. One could still purchase a Ferrari (with all its quality control issues) but that will be akin to buying a Hasselbad badged Sony for three times the price.

 

[Guest]

There will always be a high-end camera market.

...ya’ll got me talkin politics.

 

[jcs]

Asides aside, if one looks at the title of this thread, one might infer that the Canon layoffs are due to their diminishing revenues and profits due to the declining sales. Now, those two may be directly or loosely connected but, if you assume the former, then you may also assume that there's a global trend indicating the eventual annihilation of the photo-video industry as we know it. This demise/aka the end of the product cycle is likely to have significant consequences for those making a living off these products or related services.

As to cars, I spot the parallels to the photo-video industry where the "meat of the market" keeps moving lower and lower and a price-to-value ratio higher and higher. A crossover based on a Ford Mustang chassis will not be confused for a Macan but it's likely to be a formidable offering that will be offered at half the price. That will be a major benefit for a consumer and likely a huge setback for the luxury brands.

PS. Side note on performance cars - once speed/power/track time specs have commoditized themselves, the finishing will be the next contested territory. One could still purchase a Ferrari (with all its quality control issues) but that will be akin to buying a Hasselbad badged Sony for three times the price.

What's more fun, focusing on the cameras themselves or what you can do with them? Curious to see what you do with cameras, stills or video, link(s) to your work(s)?

The market is changing. Everything is changing- and it's predictably unpredictable, with consciousness influencing everything. That's how the simulation runs (see Planck Length, Planck Time, the "speed" of light, and quantum physics (Heisenberg, Schrödinger) to get the joke).

Ferrari's are works of art, the leather work alone (hand stitched) is amazing. Most are purchased as art pieces that drive and become musical instruments generating positive emotions with every moment. Lamborghini use to have low quality, however after Audi bought them, they're pretty good now. One could even daily drive the Gallardo / Huracán (siblings of the Audi R8 / R8 V10). Electrics will bring huge improvements to reliability. Sound (engine music!) will come from speakers out the fake exhaust pipes (like the BMW i8 hybrid does now). Kind of reminds of putting playing cards with a clothing pin on bike spokes as a kid haha.

Years ago at the Laguna Seca Monterrey Historics, it was Ferrari's turn to be the Featured Marque (2004). There were more Ferraris in one place than you could imagine. Walking around the infield I passed a Ferrari Enzo, which was still the top car at the time. Most all the other Ferraris were like museum pieces or garage queens: spotless and perfect. This Red Enzo had chipped wheels and paint, the tires were almost bald, the edges clearly having lived a wild time cornering and holding on for every last bit of g-stretched grip. Wow, I thought to myself, someone using the top Ferrari for everything it was designed to do. Amazing. Then I looked inside and there were McDonalds wrappers and bags etc., just like 'normal people' haha. There's someone who could truly afford that car and maximized their enjoyment!

A book to ponder: https://www.amazon.com/Intention-Experiment-Using-Thoughts-Change-ebook/dp/B000N0WTBU/
More quantum physics: http://noosphere.princeton.edu/

Perhaps try these on for a while and see how things go only finding and focusing on beauty, creation, and construction! Maybe post some of your camera work?

 

[Run&Gun]

There will always be a high-end camera market.

...

As long as the world has rich dentists...

 

[DLD]

...ya’ll got me talkin politics.

The politics of dancing, the politics of, ooh, feeling good?

What's more fun, focusing on the cameras themselves or what you can do with them? Curious to see what you do with cameras, stills or video, link(s) to your work(s)?

That would get me banned from this site.

As long as the world has rich dentists...

And rich teeth.

 

[Run&Gun]

And rich teeth.

 

[jcs]

Ever notice how some people enjoy being The Contrarian? Many of us play that archetype as free/independent thinkers, not going along with the herd so to speak, finding truth as they see it, and doing their best to use logic to explain their thoughts to others. Another kind of contrarian archetype is The Mismatcher. It's a simple algorithm: negate or invert ideas/positions for humor or personal entertainment. Trolling can be a form of this type of mismatching, typically indicated by exclusively anonymous interaction. When that pattern is observed, some people will no longer engage in serious discussions as it's clear there's no search for truth; further interactions are purely for humortainment ('playing along' in the silliness), if at all.

 

[jcs]

Cameras capture photons and we consciously re-experience what was captured, where editing provides a different experience than the initial photon capture. We enjoy this process.

The camera 'market collapse and impending layoffs' concept is fear, related to uncertainty and loss: attachment.

What changes with the understanding that space-time emerges from consciousness? Will you choose to change how you think, how you act, what you do?

 

[laverdir]

Any original ideas or concepts?

I'm glad that you are so amazed with consuming content, but repeating others isn't creative.

Or it is, when a revolutionary idea is resurrected as a parody.

So, you can hide behind mysticism, parade here with quotations and pretend that you are on the same level (of consciousness as their authors.

 

[jcs]