morgan_moore
Major Contributor
Paul - only ex digi back owners see the future of this stuff 
My H1 is long replaced with the far better nikon D600 !
S
My H1 is long replaced with the far better nikon D600 !
S
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i think the 4.6 ursa and ursa mini could change the high end situation...if the image delivers, there is really no reason not to go with those cameras...i am aware that this is a huge IF, but in terms of specs red and arri would face serious competition at a fraction of the price point.....
and in many ways these cameras really only go head to head with red and arri because of the raw workflow....sony, panasonic seem happy to provide different versions of compressed workflow in different price ranges, some with raw options....
for BM, it really comes down to the sensor alone on this one (i doubt it will be limited like their first off the shelf ones)...if it does deliver the DR and resolution, their color hasn't been a problem, they have a very professional software side....i can't wait to see what they will come up with next year....
of course things aren't that simple for BM....i would say that the ursa 4.6 has to be better then arri and red to really make waves in the highest end.....the big problem for the highest end is simply that it keeps getting smaller and smaller and there are plenty of cameras out there now nowhere near arri and red that are eating into the rental market for commercial,....budgets are getting tighter every day....Even if the 4.6k performs brilliantly it still is no Alexa killer. First off as good as the IQ is out of the BM cameras and possibly the 4.6k, the color science in the Alexa is in a whole different league. There are many other factors involved like ergonomics, connectivity, reliability, service networks, build quality, wireless connectivity, politics etc. It's not just about the sensor, but the whole camera package, the track record of the manufacturer and the support it delivers. BM can't even deliver a product on time and apparently won't service them once they are out of warranty. No one on the high end is going to put up with that. I should mention that I have a pre-order in for a Ursa Mini 4.6k, but the lack of service beyond the warranty is giving me second thoughts and I may just end up sticking with my F3L. The BM cameras are a game changer for independents, but there is a reason why studios shoot on Arri, Sony and Red.
If the 4.6k cameras perform as advertised they will without a doubt have an impact on the low-end and mid range of the market, but I can guarantee you that no one is going to dump their Alexa or F55 for a BM camera.
What's the Alexa65 rental like, about five times of the "regular"? So, it would be about $300,000. Then again, IMO, they're keeping this artificial scarcity going for some reason. Unless they're short of the rehoused Hasselblad 65mm lenses, they could have easily made several hundred of the Alexa65.I would have thought it was more that fact that they just aren't making many. I probably should re-write that and say "if ARRI sold it it would have to cost about 300K a piece"...
And if by 20 million, you meant half a billion, then you'd be getting close (25-30% and growing of the 1.5 billion annual unit market).sony will be more then happy to sell 20mill iPhone sensors each year![]()
It's a technological progress. Any well heeled company will enter a territory it deems profitable and, once it's in, the engineers take over. The image acquisition advancement is due as much to its photo/video part as to mobile computing. Once photo cameras became part of a smartphone, the amounts of money that poured into the R&D at these major conglomerates meant there was going to be quick development of many various aspects - from sensors to media to processors to screens. And it'll be very difficult for the independents to stem the tide. IMO, within two years, one would be able to shoot a big budget feature with a $6,000 camera and a couple of zooms. URSA Mini, on specs alone, can do it whenever it comes out but, in 18-24 months, there'll be similar 4K-6K products from the big boys and the old adage of "80% performance for 20% of the price" will become "95% performance for 5% of the price". And the paying public won't notice those five percent anyway.... Id say sony and canon are the threat to arri - not BMC - because Sony/Canon can chuck proper money at development - because it is development they need to do to feed down into their consumer cameras and the consumer cams create the millions $ turnover
Is Sony a threat to its self or own cine lines? Who knows.
S
There will *always* be a demand for the best, and the best will always be better than the nearly-consumer level stuff.
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once the high end production can get the same result from a BM or Sony or canon, why would they not use it?
once a blockbuster DP decides to shoot on a xxxx (sony/BM/canon) because it gives a better image (and this will happen, it is just a matter of time) it's over.........
that is what i meant....once productions for which the camera cost makes absolutely no difference decide on a XXX (BM, sony, canon) other people will see them in a different light....But on a "blockbuster" type movie the camera rental is such a small portion of the budget. I would still think the DP is going to choose the appropriate camera for the job at hand rather than pick an inappropriate camera because of image or price.
IMO, the next step on the high end pro/feature/TV stage is for the multiple cam productions, such as what was done in the 1930's with all those Three Stooges shorts (they used four cams, with Curly having one for himself). I brought this up here a year ago when Nikon released that break dancing clip with a dozen cameras providing different angles of the performances and Charles Papert disagreed because he thought - not incorrectly, obviously - that it would lead to more overhead lighting, which is not the look currently in vogue. But I still think - and I am not on a set or anything, mind you - that even scripted TV is going toward a de facto live recording with many small size cameras of the Alexa Mini/C300MKII/A7RII variety controlled by robotic arms and with the director looking at a dozen monitors simultaneously in the way it's done live during the major sporting or live ceremony/award show events.But on a "blockbuster" type movie the camera rental is such a small portion of the budget. I would still think the DP is going to choose the appropriate camera for the job at hand rather than pick an inappropriate camera because of image or price.
absolutely! that is why people still buy 100K manual watches or leicas or ferraris....the fun and of course status symbol.....but i seriously doubt this will apply to alexas or dragons....I'm a lens whore, but I have always thought that once we get past lenses capture systems will really advance.
It's kind of like cars. The internal combustion engine needs to be replaced with a modern energy efficient power source badly.
But I do love the popping gurgling sound of weber carbs on an early 12 cylinder Ferrari, and how I smell after driving one. :love4:
..and in line with the 12 cylinder.....and i am sure nobody would think about taking their vintage 12 cylinder ferrari racing.....
I campaigned a Lola T70 in historic races till it ran my pockets dry.
Last night, I was flipping through the channels and stopped for a few glimpses at it is known in the US as the "Spanish soap" (can be shot anywhere in Central/South America or the US). They were definitely using multiple (3-4) cameras but the editing wasn't as predictable on the US soaps. It didn't look like a feature, obviously, but it wasn't that bad. Their cuts were faster and camera angles fairly diverse. It was still two dimensional - as Charles Papert predicted - but IMO, one could work off that. The size of the upcoming gear and the ability to control their motion via some sort of a joystick will have its appeal.Dramatic production (ie features) is always likely to be single or very few cameras for the most part, simply because it is not possible to keep an eye on multiple monitors successfully if you are one person...
Hypothetically, it can be done now, by scanning the scene three-dimensionally with lasers. There are companies who do this with the historical sites, where lighting/flash lights is prohibited. The problem, as I understand, there's too much data coming off those lasers but, even when pared, the virtual tour of these sites is top rate.Personally, I have a suspicion that the future of moviemaking may not even involve a camera in the sense that we think of. I think there may come a technology that allows highly accurate object motion capture, and instead of performing camera moves on set, they'll be performed in post. I'm not sure I like what I just predicted, but if the technology existed, I'm certain the effects laden blockbusters would rely heavily on it.
A gas turbine (aka a jet engine) that charges an electric battery, which then powers the electric engine (or, engines, plural) is several times more efficient than diesel in city traffic. It can also run off any liquid fuel, including the abundant (in the US) natural gas. And one can refuel at home and won't need a huge stack of very expensive batteries. The problem is the current cost of turbines, which are not in mass production (the large sized ones are for the airplanes and power stations).It's kind of like cars. The internal combustion engine needs to be replaced with a modern energy efficient power source badly...