polfilmblog
Well-known member
"And this will be out when, in 2012?"
The day after the Mayan apocalypse.
The day after the Mayan apocalypse.
Red Scarlet Delayed Again... Price increase up $1000
- Thread starter NickD
- Start date
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Fair enough re: delays. And really not surprising in the least. Very expected.
Bringing a product to market is one of the most difficult managerial challenges in business. To me, this simply says that RED is a very green company indeed, because these are challenges that every technology business faces. You always have to triage between releasing a "perfect" product, or a real product. Steve Jobs said it best: "real artists ship". What this means, is that shipping a product is an extremely important factor - it's as important as the size of your chip or any crucial physical aspect of your product. Look how Apple does it - they don't release the be-all and end-all perfect product. They release a well-finished product with a limited functionality. MS and some companies go the opposite way - they release a beta product crammed with features. Guess which way is better. BUT, at least both release, because both understand that "real artists ship". Then there are the amateurs who don't understand that shipping is key. They work on it till it's perfect in both feature set and finish - which means taking longer and longer and longer. Look at the iPad or iPhone - revolutionary devices with extremely limited functionality - with time they add cut and paste, or camera or whatever. But it's well-finished, even if the feature set is limited.
Same with RED. What they should have done is released a limited functionality Scarlet - on time or as close to on time as possible. Instead, they keep upgrading the feature set - and apparently price point - and that's just a recipe for delays. Because there's always some new thing that's coming out that'll make it "better" and why not incorporate it, blah, blah. It is so seductive - incorporate hdrx, wow, how cool is that! Amateur hour.
If you want a dramatic example, look at military weapons development, especially aircraft. Do you realize that a lot of the technology in the newest fighter jets is way obsolete stuff from the 70's? Why is that? Because the jet is an incredibly complex machine, and if they kept updating every component, they'd NEVER EVER release one that actually flies - it would be perpetually in the building/revising stage. So it comes out in 2010, but has huge chunks of tech from the 70's. But guess what - it's here, and it flies.
Now the jet fighter is a 1000 times more complex than a camera, but the same principle applies. RELEASE IT. Here is what you need to do: make sure it works, and cut back on features (the Apple way). You can always come up with Scarlet II, and III and IV and so on. But if you only keep working on it, you dissipate your energies, your customers abandon you and you end up bypassed by the market. Apple learned their lesson. When Jobs was kicked out, they kept working on a new OS for years, and years and years and never got it done - finally they killed it, and bought Job's new company OS and Jobs back. Because when Jobs left, he created a new company that shipped a new OS.
Don't add new features - however seductive, however demanded. Prioritize release - well finished, but limited. Then release the next iteration with more features, and so on.
REAL ARTISTS SHIP.
Bringing a product to market is one of the most difficult managerial challenges in business. To me, this simply says that RED is a very green company indeed, because these are challenges that every technology business faces. You always have to triage between releasing a "perfect" product, or a real product. Steve Jobs said it best: "real artists ship". What this means, is that shipping a product is an extremely important factor - it's as important as the size of your chip or any crucial physical aspect of your product. Look how Apple does it - they don't release the be-all and end-all perfect product. They release a well-finished product with a limited functionality. MS and some companies go the opposite way - they release a beta product crammed with features. Guess which way is better. BUT, at least both release, because both understand that "real artists ship". Then there are the amateurs who don't understand that shipping is key. They work on it till it's perfect in both feature set and finish - which means taking longer and longer and longer. Look at the iPad or iPhone - revolutionary devices with extremely limited functionality - with time they add cut and paste, or camera or whatever. But it's well-finished, even if the feature set is limited.
Same with RED. What they should have done is released a limited functionality Scarlet - on time or as close to on time as possible. Instead, they keep upgrading the feature set - and apparently price point - and that's just a recipe for delays. Because there's always some new thing that's coming out that'll make it "better" and why not incorporate it, blah, blah. It is so seductive - incorporate hdrx, wow, how cool is that! Amateur hour.
If you want a dramatic example, look at military weapons development, especially aircraft. Do you realize that a lot of the technology in the newest fighter jets is way obsolete stuff from the 70's? Why is that? Because the jet is an incredibly complex machine, and if they kept updating every component, they'd NEVER EVER release one that actually flies - it would be perpetually in the building/revising stage. So it comes out in 2010, but has huge chunks of tech from the 70's. But guess what - it's here, and it flies.
Now the jet fighter is a 1000 times more complex than a camera, but the same principle applies. RELEASE IT. Here is what you need to do: make sure it works, and cut back on features (the Apple way). You can always come up with Scarlet II, and III and IV and so on. But if you only keep working on it, you dissipate your energies, your customers abandon you and you end up bypassed by the market. Apple learned their lesson. When Jobs was kicked out, they kept working on a new OS for years, and years and years and never got it done - finally they killed it, and bought Job's new company OS and Jobs back. Because when Jobs left, he created a new company that shipped a new OS.
Don't add new features - however seductive, however demanded. Prioritize release - well finished, but limited. Then release the next iteration with more features, and so on.
REAL ARTISTS SHIP.
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adkimery
Veteran
Part of the reason for the grumbling is that Red keeps getting farther and farther away from what it was originally selling Scarlet as. If Red never announced a price point and never announced a release date and dropped an HDRx Scarlet on the world in 2011 for $6k I'm sure it would get a very positive reaction for giving a lot of bang for your buck. But when the product keeps getting pushed and the price keeps climbing higher and higher it's only natural that you will turn people off to the camera.
I agree. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. I think the problem Red is running into is trying to stay inline w/their mantra of rending obsolesce obsolete. How do you release a product that is sold as being perpetually upgradable? Also, the landscape has changed so much since their original DMSC concept (the precursor to Scarlet) that I think they are trying to really one-up the DSLRs from other companies.
-Andrew
David G. Smith
Steak Knife Member
3k for $3k was a grand announcement... and well, we have seen what has happened to that. At this point, talking about what Scarlett is, or isn't, is useless, until the production models ship.
Jason Ramsey
Admin
The market was very different then... It was hvx200, hpx170, ex1, etc.... Now it's sub-3k DSLR's, and the revitalization of the 5k-10k market with the af100 (and whatever else like it is sure to follow)... that 5k-10k demographic... which is really what Scarlet was targeting all along, imo...
pretty much
For me, x scarlet that was announced 2 years ago doesn't matter, neither do delays, etc... What matters to me as a potential consumer is what it is when it is released and how it does or does not meet my needs if I'm looking to purchase... No emotion... Just "is this a good camera for me and does it meet my own personal checklist of wants/needs in my budget range"... no extra baggage...
Michael Carter
Veteran
Hopefully those "waiters" have learned a lesson from the Scarlet story; I was strongly considering an HVX/Letus or similar - about a $9k pricetag all told. Then came the D90. Owning a big bag of pricey Nikon glass, I could have waited for a D90 firmware update, and then waited for the D7000. I bought a Canon and it's paid for itself many times over.
I was certainly excited about the initial Scarlet announcement and last winter's updates. Have they priced me out of the market? Who knows. When it's available I'll know the price and I'll know my budget. But there was no marketplace with a $3k - 2k camera. Now certainly there's a "market" for the earlier Scarlet idea... and there's certainly a market for a $200 DSLR that shoots RAW 1080 with burst speeds up to 120fps and has tiny XLR inputs and can hunt down your car keys. And I'll bet there's a healthy market for the current idea of Scarlet.
Having the money for a Scarlet is a luxury for some; waiting for the perfect piece of gear is a luxury I can't afford. Nikon and Scarlet have both disappointed me in the last 24 months; but I've had paying gigs to shoot, and an obsession to make some really pretty personal stuff as well. I bought what seemed best for my budget and rolled up my sleeves.
This reminds me of all the anger directed at Nikon around here - they've obviously made a decision regarding where their R&D and manufacturing will focus. I have no idea what chunk of their profits come from filmmakers desiring $1000 cameras (not long ago that would have been a ludicrous phrase, right?) - apparently it's a lot less than DSLR shooters believe. It's their call.
RED's making decisions based on the market and their capabilities in R&D and manufacturing. I don't give a flip what they announced vs. what they've shipped and they can wallpaper the web with press releases. I imagine there could be a day when RED has an available product that suits my budget and workflow. I'll certainly check that out.
Shoot now with the best compromise you can find. Adjust to fit. Rinse & repeat. Get some work out. It's very easy to assume that "wait for the perfect camera" is a more hobbyist/dabbler perspective, or that of someone hoping to enter some aspect of this field as a career move... someday. But everything I learned with my DVX (the little money-maker!) serves me well today. "Making films" is an activity... so is waiting. Choose wisely.
Jason Ramsey
Admin
My memory is a bit foggy, but I believe the only "HDR" ever mentioned with Scarlet until today was "HDR Stills Mode".
5k or 6k or 10k... (If) Scarlet is released and has north of 15-16 stops of dynamic range, there isn't anything other than a to be released EPIC (which is several times more expensive) that can meet spec on that single feature alone. It might have priced some people out, but that doesn't make it "expensive"... (IF) it delivers on specs, it's a steal when it comes to price
erformance.
Both the AF100 and the HDR Scarlet are looking pretty dang attractive (to me). But, neither are out yet, so....
p.s. Anyone who has been "waiting" for x y or z holy grail of a camera only has their own self to blame, imo...
5k or 6k or 10k... (If) Scarlet is released and has north of 15-16 stops of dynamic range, there isn't anything other than a to be released EPIC (which is several times more expensive) that can meet spec on that single feature alone. It might have priced some people out, but that doesn't make it "expensive"... (IF) it delivers on specs, it's a steal when it comes to price
erformance.Both the AF100 and the HDR Scarlet are looking pretty dang attractive (to me). But, neither are out yet, so....
p.s. Anyone who has been "waiting" for x y or z holy grail of a camera only has their own self to blame, imo...
combatentropy
Veteran
You might also like the online book by 37signals: Getting Real. It's about writing software but could be applied to hardware.
Feature creep is the number-one cause of delays. I personally like everything manual, with as few gizmo-ish features as possible. I want it to be a like a simple, well-crafted tool.
On the other hand, there must be something we don't understand. All of the people who have announced their cameras early --- RED, Ikonoskop, and Otis Grapsas --- are taking years. The old guard --- Sony, Panasonic, Canon --- release often, but they don't change as much. The difference from one camera to the next is small --- which is why RED called themselves revolutionary in the first place.
So, it seems camera development is slow regardless. You either take years to release one big change, or you release yearly but change is small. Either way, change is slow.
Rick Burnett
Section Moderator
I see this type of mentality tossed around a lot, but I don't think it's so black and white. It's not like cameras, features and cost are all linear. I think the DSLR craze gave a LOT of people a whole lot to work with at a much more attractive price point. People have to remember, there are those who are doing this not to make money and those that are. Different mind sets.
If someone had come to me to invest in a full feature film, by all means I would have put all the cards on the table and picked the best option at that point in time related to budget and desired output.
For my own personal film that I am funding and doing just for me, I waited. I didn't want to shoot in on the 7D because I want it cleaner for all the VFX stuff I am doing. I am not losing any money by waiting, but I am going to get a cleaner result that I am going to be happier with (plus I need the variable framerate 1080p).
I wanted that camera to be an S35 but I don't want to wait that long into the future. In this case, it is still a risk on schedule as Panasonic could delay to unknown circumstances, but given their history, it's a good chance they will deliver, and I've pre-ordered the camera.
We ALL know people who are gear hounds. Always not completing anything because they need that next best thing that would make their material shine. However, just because someone is waiting on tech for a project doesn't mean they are like all those people. Sometimes quality is worth waiting for if something means a lot to you and you don't see any other method to achieve that quality in the cost structure you can support.
Jason Ramsey
Admin
I would say you would fall into the category of someone who didn't "need" anything right now, so you can afford to wait and see what happens with the market... nothing wrong with that... I just see an awful lot of people sitting on their thumbs saying "if only"... If you can afford to wait, great... If you can't (as Barry always says) buy the best you can get at the time you need it and don't look back.
p.s. an 800 dollar dslr though... might have been a good investment for you if you don't have anything else. EVen if you don't plan on shooting your final project on it... Lot's of time you could be learning and experimenting, doing test shoots, etc... You could still put that time to good use (though there are other arena's that time would be well-spent as well). and, at 800 bucks, even just doing a few freelance jobs here and there, and you could make that back pretty easily...
Later,
Jason
We ALL know people who are gear hounds. Always not completing anything because they need that next best thing that would make their material shine.
That's why you get everything else ready FIRST and you buy/rent the gear LAST. Amateurs usually do it the other way around. They buy the gear first, or worse, wait for the gear to exist while not working on anything else.
Use all the time to work on your script, breakdowns, locations etc. - and only then get the camera... that way you'll have the latest/greatest. There are always delays. So if you buy the gear first, odds are, it will be superseded by something else by the time you are ready to use it.
That's what I am doing now. My project was almost ready to go a year ago, then the money fell through. Had I bought the camera then, I'd be sitting here with the hmc-150, gnashing my teeth looking at the af-100. Instead, I consciously said: I get the gear at the last possible moment. It now looks like I'll be good to go spring/summer of 2011. Unless there's another delay - but I'm not buying a thing until I'm ready to go and sitting down with the dp who says "give me 2 weeks with the new camera", then we buy and off to the races we go.
That's why you get everything else ready FIRST and you buy/rent the gear LAST. Amateurs usually do it the other way around. They buy the gear first, or worse, wait for the gear to exist while not working on anything else.
Use all the time to work on your script, breakdowns, locations etc. - and only then get the camera... that way you'll have the latest/greatest. There are always delays. So if you buy the gear first, odds are, it will be superseded by something else by the time you are ready to use it.
That's what I am doing now. My project was almost ready to go a year ago, then the money fell through. Had I bought the camera then, I'd be sitting here with the hmc-150, gnashing my teeth looking at the af-100. Instead, I consciously said: I get the gear at the last possible moment. It now looks like I'll be good to go spring/summer of 2011. Unless there's another delay - but I'm not buying a thing until I'm ready to go and sitting down with the dp who says "give me 2 weeks with the new camera", then we buy and off to the races we go.
Something seems sketchy here... I'd like to know the whole story. First of all... before they start adding $1000 to the price and HDRx mode... I'd like to know why didn't they realize any Scarlet footage to let us decide if it was good enough for the majority of potential Scarlet users. I'd like to see some "Scarlet 1.0" footage please...
Second, Red is making a HUGE mistake by letting people believe that a puny 2/3" sensor is going to have the dynamic range and general IQ of it's big brother s35 Epic. This is SO misleading it's not even funny. I can't count how many posts I see on the Red forum that say something like "Great Jim! I don't mind waiting for 13-15 stops!" and of course "$1000 extra is not bad, since I'll be getting Epic-like images!" Of course Red says nothing. People need to wake up and realize Scarlet is not going to look as good as Epic. It's not even going to look as good as a 5D. Sure the "quality" will be better than the DSLRs, but the artistic aesthetics that everyone has fallen in love with (regardless of codec) will not be there. And BTW, there is no way in hell that a 2/3" sensor is going to be able to capture blacks and match the low-light images that are coming out of a sensor that has 8x the surface area. Sure the 5Ds codec is dropping some mid-tones... but that sensor is seeing ALLOT of light at one time. Only a fool would think Scarlet would perform similar with a pixel density that is double the 5D's. (Scarlet 4mm/cm^2 vs. 2.4mm/cm^2) Not to mention the fact that Red has dug themselves into a "resolution war" hole. With all thier "we shouldn't have to live in a world where 1080p is 'good enough'" and "5k is the future! Everything else is obsolete!" BS.
Customer: "Hey Red, what about Scarlet... Doesn't that have like... 3k, resolving an RGB image of around 1080p?"
Red: "uhh... well 5k is the future... but OUR 1080p is also the future. But let us clarify and assure you... every one else's 1080p is obsolete. Not ours though."
Honestly, Red should just drop the Scarlet already... save some money on R&D and drop the price on the Epic. I'll just shoot on DSLRs for now and make producers rent me an Epic if I ever get a gig big enough. You know what's really obsolete? The 2/3" format. The lens options blow, plus, the image is flat looking. And to all you "but Citizen Cane was all DEEP FOCUS! Don't you know ANYTHING about cinematography!?" people... get real. Quit acting like Citizen Cane is the Be-All-End-All example for cinematography. Citizen Cane can suck my balls... I'd rather watch "Baseketball" for the 17th time then Citizen Cane again. I'll take my "amateur" shallow DOF please. I want that 24mm 1.4 FF look.
So please Red, let us see some of that beta-Scarlet footage... What's the problem? Image too flat? Crappy in low-light? Why the delay again for a few stops of latitude? I though the Scarlet was supposed to have... what... 15-18 stops out of the box?
Second, Red is making a HUGE mistake by letting people believe that a puny 2/3" sensor is going to have the dynamic range and general IQ of it's big brother s35 Epic. This is SO misleading it's not even funny. I can't count how many posts I see on the Red forum that say something like "Great Jim! I don't mind waiting for 13-15 stops!" and of course "$1000 extra is not bad, since I'll be getting Epic-like images!" Of course Red says nothing. People need to wake up and realize Scarlet is not going to look as good as Epic. It's not even going to look as good as a 5D. Sure the "quality" will be better than the DSLRs, but the artistic aesthetics that everyone has fallen in love with (regardless of codec) will not be there. And BTW, there is no way in hell that a 2/3" sensor is going to be able to capture blacks and match the low-light images that are coming out of a sensor that has 8x the surface area. Sure the 5Ds codec is dropping some mid-tones... but that sensor is seeing ALLOT of light at one time. Only a fool would think Scarlet would perform similar with a pixel density that is double the 5D's. (Scarlet 4mm/cm^2 vs. 2.4mm/cm^2) Not to mention the fact that Red has dug themselves into a "resolution war" hole. With all thier "we shouldn't have to live in a world where 1080p is 'good enough'" and "5k is the future! Everything else is obsolete!" BS.
Customer: "Hey Red, what about Scarlet... Doesn't that have like... 3k, resolving an RGB image of around 1080p?"
Red: "uhh... well 5k is the future... but OUR 1080p is also the future. But let us clarify and assure you... every one else's 1080p is obsolete. Not ours though."
Honestly, Red should just drop the Scarlet already... save some money on R&D and drop the price on the Epic. I'll just shoot on DSLRs for now and make producers rent me an Epic if I ever get a gig big enough. You know what's really obsolete? The 2/3" format. The lens options blow, plus, the image is flat looking. And to all you "but Citizen Cane was all DEEP FOCUS! Don't you know ANYTHING about cinematography!?" people... get real. Quit acting like Citizen Cane is the Be-All-End-All example for cinematography. Citizen Cane can suck my balls... I'd rather watch "Baseketball" for the 17th time then Citizen Cane again. I'll take my "amateur" shallow DOF please. I want that 24mm 1.4 FF look.
So please Red, let us see some of that beta-Scarlet footage... What's the problem? Image too flat? Crappy in low-light? Why the delay again for a few stops of latitude? I though the Scarlet was supposed to have... what... 15-18 stops out of the box?
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robertrogoz
Carbonite Member
My friend, a professional photographer said one: "The worst picture is the one you don't take", while discussing the topic of early point shoot camera picture quality- he is 100% right. It's the same with video and equipment. Also remember this- if I can't afford to buy it, I can't afford to buy it. Scarlet fix can have 20 stops of DR, I don't care.My memory is a bit foggy, but I believe the only "HDR" ever mentioned with Scarlet until today was "HDR Stills Mode".
5k or 6k or 10k... (If) Scarlet is released and has north of 15-16 stops of dynamic range, there isn't anything other than a to be released EPIC (which is several times more expensive) that can meet spec on that single feature alone. It might have priced some people out, but that doesn't make it "expensive"... (IF) it delivers on specs, it's a steal when it comes to price
Both the AF100 and the HDR Scarlet are looking pretty dang attractive (to me). But, neither are out yet, so....
p.s. Anyone who has been "waiting" for x y or z holy grail of a camera only has their own self to blame, imo...
Rick Burnett
Section Moderator
Hah! Guess what? I did buy a 7D and have shot tons of stuff on it. Even two paid music videos that will be out on CMT soon! We also shot this (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMrwNz24j_g) which was a project started soley for experimenting with the 7Ds and just got a lot bigger (500k+ views already). And I did this for the exact reasons you mention. I wasn't into cinematography before and now I've learned SO MUCH from the 7D, I won't be going back to anything not relatively close to S35 size.
Best post ever anywhere. Hilarious.
Rick Burnett
Section Moderator
I think you don't realize that there is a 2/3" market for a multitude of reasons. Not just cinematic capabilities, but for ENG, sports events, things were you DON'T want shallow DoF. Also for VFX work, smaller lighter lenses, etc.
YOU want shallow DoF, but that doesn't preclude MANY uses for the opposite. I don't use a 5D and use a 7D because I don't like working with FF35. I like S35 as a balance between smaller and larger sensors.
Have you seen how much it can take sometimes to stop down a lens on a FF35 to get really deep focus? Sometimes you don't want that. You lose a lot of light.
Pertaining to light capability, it's not just surface area of the sensor, but the density and size of the pixels, and the actual construction of the active area. It's also about the sensor noise, the A/D noise, and analog gain noise.
Pixel sizes (just cause it is interesting)
8.2um 5D
5.4um Epic
4.29um 7D
4.31um GH1
3.2um Scarlet
I personally feel the low light capability of the 7D is much better than the GH1 yet the GH1 has larger pixels (just slightly) which is a perfect example of not all things created equal. Obviously if Jim says the Scarlet has a slightly smaller range of dynamics, obviously they have working prototypes because they have posted video from the Scarlet 2/3. I specifically asked him this question myself. The only thing I've seen them go negative on is price, all stats of the cameras seem to stay with what they announce.
Even further example, look at the sensor from the GH1 and now the GH2/AF100 in terms of initial measurements in video mode. Clearly the pixels are about the same size, yet, the sensor is getting better, 10.5 dynamic range on the prototype.
CMOS technology gets better ALL the time. I am a CMOS engineer, so I can tell you I know this first hand (though I don't deal with optical). I still want the S35 in the future, but if I get one will depend on what else is around then. Maybe the AF200 will be here and give it a run for it's money? Who knows. I'm not worrying about that now as the AF100 seems to fit what I need for now and am planning around that for my non-paying projects. Still using the 7D for paying projects and the last 2 parts of our Metal War Gear Solid parody.
If you're shooting sporting events stopping down is not a problem. I shot some stuff for USA Hockey outside during the day with my 7D and I was at like f22 or something ridiculous to get the right exposure.
I defiantly understand the VFX use... but with Epic shooting 96fps without windowing... who needs the limitations of a smaller sensor?
The market was very different then... It was hvx200, hpx170, ex1, etc.... Now it's sub-3k DSLR's, and the revitalization of the 5k-10k market with the af100 (and whatever else like it is sure to follow)... that 5k-10k demographic... which is really what Scarlet was targeting all along, imo...
pretty much
For me, x scarlet that was announced 2 years ago doesn't matter, neither do delays, etc... What matters to me as a potential consumer is what it is when it is released and how it does or does not meet my needs if I'm looking to purchase... No emotion... Just "is this a good camera for me and does it meet my own personal checklist of wants/needs in my budget range"... no extra baggage...
I kind of agree and disagree. I think the scarlet's delyas are the reason for more delays. Whne it was first announced DSLRs weren't an issue and there wasn't even an inlking of something like the AF100. I think the market they were originally aiming for has kind of passed them by.... so they delay to up their game, then the market evolves... rinse and repeat.
Don't get me wrong. I still think it can be a great tool for a great price though.
i honestly wished the RED Scarlet didn't have a fixed lens [i mean it IS f/2.0], they shouldve made it with interchangeable lenses, but that just me
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