P2 Shenanigans

[PaulC]

But as I mentioned in an earlier post, the first adopters of any new technology pay more and get less. Prices will come down eventually, or maybe there's even another acquisition method coming down the pike that we don't know about yet, and it'll blow the doors off everything else. But P2 can do the job, now and today. The idea that there's a 1080p HD camcorder available for under $10K is . . . astonishing, and given the possible alternatives to P2 recording in the short term -- to dedicated hard drives or to a laptop -- this is a camera that the indy filmmaking crowd is going to eat up.

The more I've studied this and really pored through the issue, the more I'm convinced that Panasonic made the right decision here. Hey, maybe it will keep people -- yourself included? -- from buying the cam. But then, the lack of 24p and HDV kept me from buying the Sony. Is the HVX200 the right camera for everyone who wants to shoot HD? No. But really, that's OK.

We agree then. Except for the very last part. I think it's a shame if this camera gets eclipsed by optical disks next year. I happen to think this could make a big difference for Panny and P2 down the road, hence I believe they should button down and get people to buy in now, with cheaper P2 prices. People who wait are more likely to switch.

I still haven't heard if the camera will be compatible with the higher data sized P2 cards (16GB, 32GB) . People have speculated yes, but it's just speculation. Could we have some confirmation of this?

 

[Barry_Green]

Here is an interesting article, talking about blu-ray recorders from Panny's parent and Sony in 2005, although Sony was discounting the 2005 date:

http://www.camcorderinfo.com/content/Sony-and-Matsushita-to-Release-Blu-ray-Camcorders-in-2005.htm

Panasonic did explore blu-ray camcorders. AFAIK, they abandoned it.

Is there any guarantee that if/when the 16GB P2 card is released that it will work with the existing cam? Maybe Jan or someone from Panny could confirm.

The camera will work with all P2 cards, including the planned 128gb card.

 

[thisiswells]

No, but I also don't have to stop every 4 (or even 8) minutes and transfer my pics to a hard drive, and then back them up to optical for long-term storage. And, that's with *still* images. Imagine if it were moving..... Duh.

To repeat my comment, as written word-for-word in post #137 on page 14 of this thread:

"Do you realise that 2-8GB cards will handle 40 minutes of 720p24 in DVCPRO-HD codec?"

 

[PaulC]

Thanks Barry, that's good to hear. Well, an average Joe user like myself has a real incentive to apply the "wait" option once this camera comes out, to see how optical will shake out vs. the supposed drop in P2 prices, versus taking a second look at HDV. *sigh* Maybe given the Blu-Ray / HD-DVD format wars, there will be yest another reason to wait and see how things shake out, since burners aren't here yet (in large quantities) anyway.

I agree with Ryan that the price breakdown of the P2 is important. If I were to buy this camera, I'd be worried that the P2 prices will not drop nearly as quickly as people are predicting, since solid state memory has been expensive for a while. By seeing the price breakdown, I could see why it is so expensive and hence have a very clear idea how much price decline is possible due to scale, but how much is not possible due to fixed production cost. I know with large chips, for example, the cost remains high since, with a larger die, there is an exponentially higher probability of an error.

By the way, one article I read said that the 128GB cards are not expected until something like 5 years from now. I don't think it's very realistic to be buying a camera based on technology predictions 5 years into the future. I really hope when this camera comes out they will announce the expected availability date and pricing of 16GB and 32GB cards.

 

[PaulC]

To repeat my comment, as written word-for-word in post #137 on page 14 of this thread:

"Do you realise that 2-8GB cards will handle 40 minutes of 720p24 in DVCPRO-HD codec?"

Yes. I'm aware of that. But, I'm more likely to shoot in 30p, maybe even 60p (if it were a sporting event).

Also, the cost of those 8GB cards is being talked at a level much higher than I had originally understood was where they were going to come in. So, to me, it's still not enough. I'm thinking about HDV, although not entirely enamored with that solution either.

As I mention above, I think all of this, together with the format wars, makes a possible user such as myself simply wait to see where the pricing comes out down the road, and to see any progress with mpeg2 and/or optical systems.

If I had a good idea of expected pricing and availability of the higher data P2 cards, then shooting 720p/30 would be great for the time being. But, I'm concerned that I buy the camera and then I'm captive to the P2 cost, which might not come down as much as some people speculate it will. Based on all this uncertainty, waiting until mid or late 2006 to buy an HD cam seems like a very valuable option. By then hopefully the format wars will have settled and there will be burners on the market. If I went with P2, I'd need one of these for archival anyway.

waiting................

 

[thisiswells]

PaulC,

I appreciate that you are doing a lot of this research on your own and not expecting others to spell it out for you. That's good. That's the best way to learn. Your concerns stem around the idea that what is achieved with expensive solid state memory right now could at some point be done as well using blue laser discs. The cost could be reduced since discs are cheap and the quality you would prefer to have could be there as well, in the Panasonic codec. Those are all very good ideas. May I present another side of the story?

As a group, we've pretty much concluded that there are certain things that ought to be done better by removing tape from our workflow. As you have mentioned several times and by offering links to relevant articles is that blue laser tech. does not have the speed or capacity currently needed for high definition using the Panasonic 100Mbps DVCPro-HD codec. So, solid state is a logical choice. What I think I hear you saying is that it's too expensive and you can't afford it. That is fine. No-one ever said you had to. All things considered, buying this camera, a newer faster editing system, and a bumload of HDD's and tape-based archive will be around a $20,000.00 package. That's serious cash. No doubt about it. Obviously HDV has some compromises, but the camera is about the only thing you need for an upgrade. All of your suggestions are very good. Yes, I think a disc based format could remove the price barrier of solid state cards, and I understand what you're saying about since we're going to optical disc eventually for some kind of backup, then why not have an aquisition tool that uses optical disc. I think you've answered your own question through your research--speed and capacity. The tech isn't there yet, you know this. Everyone likes to keep their fingers crossed for something more affordable, but I think the more you look into the available technology to record 100Mbps video data, out of all of the options, the Panasonic is a pretty good price/performance package. Sure, it is more expensive than any handheld HDV package. But, it's a whole lot less than a DVCPro-HD 2/3" package with a tape deck. So, what we're all saying is, yes, we totally agree with you that it would be nice to have an optical disc format that recorded 100Mbps HD... But, right now that isn't an option and while it's fun sometimes to speculate what the future might bring (e.g. wayy fast blu-ray HD capture) it isn't here right now. It isn't announced. It might be planned, but as things are, there isn't even a single blu-ray drive in a computer, OEM or aftermarket, not a single blu-ray home video player. What I'm saying is, please continue researching, hope for the best, and at least consider that even though these little cards aren't cheap, the entire package of camera+cards offers a business proposition that wouldn't be possible right now without them. Enjoy.

 

[PaulC]

Thanks for the thoughts. Of course I have been following this P2 camera/debate ever since some Panny guy carrying a Varicam in an airport told me they had some plans (no details..don't worry Jan By the way, if whoever that was is reading, I'd love to know who you are!). So, I waited, the FX1/Z1 came out, and I waited more. What I'm saying, is that at current costs, for someone other than a filmmaker (who has the luxury of time and electriucal power (!) on the set), waiting seems to *still* be the best strategy when it comes to HD. I can *definitely* see why this camera is good for indies. I'd love to buy this camera when it comes out.

But, as with any option, if the uncertainty is high then the option is very valuable. I think the uncertainty around P2 pricing, size and availability is high enough (in fact, very high) that the "wait more" option before buying into the technology is very valuable. And that gives Panny's competitors a possible "in". I think if the expected drop in P2 price is really such a given, then a transparent analysis of the cost of production and royalties would help in alleviating this uncertainty and therefore increasing sales.

Basically, what I'm saying is "Show me your cards" (ha! no pun intended!). Hey, if you've got a great hand, then I'll give you my chips. Else, that uncertainty makes waiting all the more valuable.

 

[thisiswells]

Explain your situation to Sony and lobby them to make the camera of your dreams...
This is basically what the DVXuser group did for the last year and half and voila.

Best of luck.

 

[PaulC]

Explain your situation to Sony and lobby them to make the camera of your dreams...
This is basically what the DVXuser group did for the last year and half and voila.

Best of luck.

Why should I restrict myself to Sony? Why not Panasonic too? I mean, I'm simply making a point that more transparency would likely result in higher sales, assuming that all the suppositions that Panny and people close to this technology are saying are true.

It seems that what Panny has accomplished (or, I should say, will accomplish) with this cam is quite good, but, at the same time, rather limited at least out of the gates. Perhaps this is due to the dvxuser group being overly represented by indy filmmakers? Did the event videographers ask to swap a $2400 card every 8 minutes? I don't think so. But, those users might buy the cam if the path is laid out with greater transparency. I don't understand why this request from another user and myself is met with such (apparent) scorn. What I wrote in my response above I believe highlights from a business perspective why the greater transparency of expected cost/capacity reductions is a good thing. In my humble opinion, the success of the cam depends to some extent on generating this "buy-in" from people like me.

 

[thisiswells]

Panasonic has played there cards. They aren't making a Blu-Ray camcorder and your insistance is making this an unpleasant experience. Drop it, dude. Or, try another forum.. I think it's clear no-one here wants to discuss this anymore as it is not a valued discussion. You clearly aren't interested in a productive discussion of the merits of P2 workflow. Several have been through this with you already. You want a Blu-Ray camcorder that does 100Mbps HD and what we're all saying is all the wishful thinking in the world is not going to make happen in five months. It's not going to happen. Panasonic has made their move. Did you go to NAB2005 and see what Sony will be offering over the next year? They aren't doing it either. I think you need to drop it because you're not helping here. Troll.

 

[PaulC]

Panasonic has played there cards. They aren't making a Blu-Ray camcorder and your insistance is making this an unpleasant experience. Drop it, dude. Or, try another forum.. I think it's clear no-one here wants to discuss this anymore as it is not a valued discussion. You clearly aren't interested in a productive discussion of the merits of P2 workflow. Several have been through this with you already. You want a Blu-Ray camcorder that does 100Mbps HD and what we're all saying is all the wishful thinking in the world is not going to make happen in five months. It's not going to happen. Panasonic has made their move. Did you go to NAB2005 and see what Sony will be offering over the next year? They aren't doing it either. I think you need to drop it because you're not helping here. Troll.

No, it's obvious to anyone reading my posts that I am not asking Panasonic to make a blu-ray cam. What I'm doing is backing up the P2 cost transparency request from another indiviual with the concept that, from the perspective of a non-filmmaker, greater transparency would likely result in more buy-in from people like me. With a lack of transparency, I am more likely to wait rather than jump-in, which then opens the door to other technologies next year such as blu-ray disks.

We've heard from Panny about the expected price declines / storage increases of P2. How about instead of a vague chart as posted in their presentation, they give a more deailed analysis of the costs, and, based on that, provide the potential buysers with a guide:

Size ExpectedDate ExpectedCost
8GB .... ...
16GB etc

Then, they could update that chart in 6 months.

Now, if I have that information and it's based on reasonable estimates, ie. I can see the economics behind the numbers, and if the numbers are so attractive as people say they will be, then I will be more likely to buy the camera early and get into the technology. Otherwise, Panny risks that people like me will wait, which increases our chances of adopting some other technology, like blu-ray optical, if/when it comes out.

I figure now based on your response and reading other posts that this level of transparency isn't likely to happen, and people like me will just have to settle for what they think that means to them in terms of purchasing decisions.

 

[Barry_Green]

Why should I restrict myself to Sony? Why not Panasonic too?

I think Brian's point was that since you seemed convinced that the optical disc solution was the way to go, that you would therefore be looking to Sony to produce the camera you're looking for. Panasonic has cast its lot with solid-state, and will likely not be introducing any optical disc cameras anytime soon. Sony has firmly put its stake in optical disc. I don't think Brian was restricting you to Sony for any reason other than that.

Did the event videographers ask to swap a $2400 card every 8 minutes? I don't think so.

I really don't understand why people keep ignoring the hard disk option. There WILL be a FireStore system. It will likely store at least two hours, if not three, of 1080 video, and five to eight hours of 720/24p. And it'll probably cost less than one P2 card.

But, those users might buy the cam if the path is laid out with greater transparency. I don't understand why this request from another user and myself is met with such (apparent) scorn.

I don't know that it's met with scorn, so much as it's just acknowledged that it's something that's never, ever going to happen. What manufacturer of any product, anywhere in the world, in any industry, posts its cost breakdown to the public? It just "isn't done". I mean, that's business 101 -- protecting trade secrets, etc.

If someone wants to know what the costs are, and the licensing options are, they should present themselves and their plan to Panasonic's licensing division, who will evaluate the seriousness of the proposal and then, assuming they determine through due diligence that it is a valid request from a company that has the capability to actually perform on their end of the business deal, nondisclosure agreements are exchanged, THEN the pricing and structure will be revealed.

But to ask a company like this to publicly spill all the details on their brand-new technology? C'mon. Never gonna happen. So I don't think people have been treating the idea with "scorn" so much as they've just ignored it because there's absolutely no chance of it ever going anywhere.

 

[David Jimerson]

So I don't think people have been treating the idea with "scorn" so much as they've just ignored it because there's absolutely no chance of it ever going anywhere.

Absolutely, positively, 100% the case.

 

[Neil Rowe]

as far as panasonic and optical discs ...they just announced that they have a DVD writer backup drive that fits into the SPX800. so you can dump from your P2 cards to the DVDs, but thats only backup . relying on writing directly to disc is silly IMHO .. it involves moving parts and counting on those parts to all work well when the camera is bumping around in -adverse temperatures and conditions. ... yeah right. thats where solid state comes in. you can back up to optical disc any time you want.

 

[Rosestar]

What I'm saying, is that at current costs, for someone other than a filmmaker (who has the luxury of time and electriucal power (!) on the set), waiting seems to *still* be the best strategy when it comes to HD.
.

AS for the HVX being the best camera for everyone that shoots video is crazy, it is not. Even Panasonic realizes that. Go to there website, you may notice that the HVX is classified as part of their "Digital Cinema" line of products. This is a filmmakers camera. Can we go on please, or maybe I should start a thread about why the "Sony Z1 is better than the Aaton XTR" or a "Should I buy an XL2 or an Arri-SR3?"

Go ahead and wait for your optical disk wondercam. Panasonic won't mind and the filmmakers that embrace this camera won't mind either. We all can be happy.

 

[bilgami]

Hard Drive

Hard Drive

[font=&quot]BiLGaMi Video Productions[/font][font=&quot] :beer:[/font]

On one of the postings somewhere in here someone posted a site that showed a possible hard drive that may work with 200. The site pictured a Sony cam with the hard drive mounted on the handle shoe mount if this rings a bell for any could you plz repost the link plz. thank you[font=&quot]
[/font]

[font=&quot]bilgami@hotmail.com
http://www.bilgamivideo.com[/font][font=&quot][/font]

 

[PaulC]

I think Brian's point was that since you seemed convinced that the optical disc solution was the way to go, that you would therefore be looking to Sony to produce the camera you're looking for. Panasonic has cast its lot with solid-state, and will likely not be introducing any optical disc cameras anytime soon. Sony has firmly put its stake in optical disc. I don't think Brian was restricting you to Sony for any reason other than that.


I really don't understand why people keep ignoring the hard disk option. There WILL be a FireStore system. It will likely store at least two hours, if not three, of 1080 video, and five to eight hours of 720/24p. And it'll probably cost less than one P2 card.

No, I am not saying optical is great, it certainly has advantages and disadvantages. What I was simply trying to say is that having more clarity on plans for temporary storage and P2 pricing helps people like me not jump to optical if/when it comes out, and in fact to buy into the P2 technology and this camera when it does come out.

A Firestore with the capacity and price you're talking about would certainly go a long way. Thanks for that info/opinion Barry. I do agree that the HDD solution is a great one, and it especially helps someone like me buy into the camera and the idea of waiting for the P2 sizes to come in the future.

 

[Barry_Green]

[font=&quot]BiLGaMi Video Productions[/font][font=&quot] :beer:[/font]

On one of the postings somewhere in here someone posted a site that showed a possible hard drive that may work with 200. The site pictured a Sony cam with the hard drive mounted on the handle shoe mount if this rings a bell for any could you plz repost the link plz. thank you[font=&quot]
[/font]

[font=&quot]bilgami@hotmail.com
http://www.bilgamivideo.com[/font][font=&quot][/font]

That was a picture of a FireStore FS-4, from http://www.focusinfo.com. They're working on products for the HVX200 right now.

 

[bilgami]

How much video does it record.

 

[Barry_Green]

Depends on the size of the hard disk in it. Go to the Focus website and you'll see they have various sizes. None of this is relevant to the HVX however, as the current FireStores are limited to DV and HDV. The new one will work with the HVX, but we have no way of knowing what capacity it will offer.