P2 Shenanigans

Wow this is quite a discussion.

Anyway I wanted to get back to something from earlier in the thread on HD in Home, and I saw this Direct TV News yesterday, talking about having launched a new satelite and launding more.

The first group of markets to receive local HD channels via Spaceway F1 includes New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, San Francisco, Dallas, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Detroit, Houston and Tampa. These markets represent nearly 36 million homes or 32.8 percent of all U.S. TV households.
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And by 2007 that will enable them to transmit 1500 Local HD Channels and 150 National HD Channels, which will doa lot more for getting HD content out there than anything else I have heard of
 
What I think some of this discussion comes down to is waiting for Sony (or one of the other players) to step up with a cheap HD solution. I believe Sony has already shown it's cards on that front with HDV. I believe they were protecting their higher end HD market by offering a disabled version to pacify us lower/middle class professionals. I truely believe they have no plans to offer a sub $20,000 HD solution much less a sub $10,000 one. HDV is their offering for the next several years.

I could be wrong (hell, I thought DV would never be integrated into the professional world...missed that one by a mile). We got 6 months for Sony to start dropping plans for something to compete with the HVX. Start the clock! :)
 
I would think Blue Ray as a standard needs to be figured out first, as someone else said it may even be being merged with the HD-DVD standard to create one standard, which could possibly affect the final size of the media. Also those linked to cameras, the best looked to be DVCAM 50, and as Jan said DVCPRO HD is 100 MB, but it looks like this camera actually uses more than that, so we are talking an even bigger speed increase.

Also isn't DVCPRO HD a Panasonic only format? So for Sony to even consider using it they would have to license it? I doubt it. They use HDCAm in their HDW F900, and that is even a bigger stream to deal with.
 
The latest news is that Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are in *Talks* to discuss creating a unified standard. Let's hope they work something out.

Blu-ray.com said:
Apr 21, 2005 - Sony and Toshiba in Talks About Unifying Blu-ray and HD-DVD
Blu-ray Disc

Sony and Toshiba are reportedly in talks about the possibility of unifying their next-generation optical disc formats into a single unified standard. After reaching a basic agreement that a unified standard would be desirable, they are now trying to agree on a hybrid format that takes advantage of each standard's strengths. Toshiba has acknowledged that they are in talks with the rival camp and related parties, but deny that any deal is in the works. The company recognizes a single format is best for consumers, but that doesn't necessarily mean that executives are prepared to agree on a hybrid format. Sony also denied anything had been decided, stating that the talks are part of the company's efforts to bring the "best experience" to the consumer, and any deal, if it happens, is likely to result in technological cooperation in future developments for Blu-ray. While a final deal is still far from certain, both camps are well aware that a single unified format would be in their best interest as a drawn-out fight would likely confuse consumers and hinder the industry's development.
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~reservoir~
 
wabbit said:
What I think some of this discussion comes down to is waiting for Sony (or one of the other players) to step up with a cheap HD solution. I believe Sony has already shown it's cards on that front with HDV. I believe they were protecting their higher end HD market by offering a disabled version to pacify us lower/middle class professionals. I truely believe they have no plans to offer a sub $20,000 HD solution much less a sub $10,000 one. HDV is their offering for the next several years.

I could be wrong (hell, I thought DV would never be integrated into the professional world...missed that one by a mile). We got 6 months for Sony to start dropping plans for something to compete with the HVX. Start the clock! :)
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As far as I see it, the challenge for an HDD or optical solution is the sustained data throughput necessary. Optical will probably get there in a year, with the HDCam format, but who knows. And, the stability of recording is the other issue. On the other hand, optical with a smaller GOP MPEG2 system might be the way they go. You get *so* much better compression with MPEG2 that it will always be a tempting alternative. On the other hand, if optical disk throughput and writing stability improve, you could see HDCam making it.

But, the part where you say "dropping plans" is the key. From a business strategy perspective, it would make sense for a Panny competitor to start leaking plans right around the time the HVX comes to market. I'm not sure that blu-ray / HDCam will be there by then, really. From Panny's perspective, this is, in my opinion, the business risk / opportunity: Get as many people into the P2 line-up as early as possible to choke off any optical / HDD solution that might come down the road. Again, IMO, these tech driven business are all about buy-in now vs. future expectations.

My sense is that, based on this, we'll see some improvement in the P2 workflow / cost by the time the camera hits, especially if the optical situation improves. It may be that the best optical solution by then is just a small GOP MPEG2. If optical recording stability and drop-outs are not a problem, this alone would be enough of a competitor to make P2 pricing very efficient, I suspect.
 
It was my understanding that Sony has already introduced XCAM-HD and that it has a lower data rate and higher compression than DVC-PRO HD. To think that they are going to introduce another format to compete with this system and their HDV systems is, IMO, wishful thinking.

I belive that Sony sees their market segments almost as a caste system where there is no intermingling. Take note of their lack of adapting 24p in anything but the CineAlta. I think that they have cast their lot with their new XCAM-HD (which ain't cheap) and will be pushing that. It will be a while before there is something better from them.

The real wildcard is Canon. Who knows what the XL3 will bring. However, since they are members of the HDV consortium, you can be sure it will be HDV. The question is 24p. Will Canon adapt JVC's Pro-HD? Will JVC sell Pro-HD? Will Canon come up with their own 24p HDV solution?

The HVX looks better eveyday.
 
Have to agree on Sony. They are much more focused on the mid range pro cameras then the prosumer and they will not do anything drastic to hurt the market for their higher end line cameras. If the HVX is as good as it seems Sony will be forced to react but even then they probably won't have a working production camera for at least a year, probably 2.

We won't be seeing the XL3 for another 3 years most likely but the gl3 will be coming soon and could prove to be interesting (probably HDV unfortunately).

This is why Panasonics move is so huge. They are leading and years in front of everyone with a cheap HD product. By the time anyone comes close to a cheap prosumer HD product, 30 minute HD P2 cards will be super cheap and the HVX300 will be on the horizon. The rest are going to have to chase Panasonic for the next few years (all based on the assumption the HVX in reality is as exciting as it is on paper).
 
Aint so silly Wabbit

Aint so silly Wabbit

[font=&quot]BiLGaMi Video Productions[/font][font=&quot] :beer: :thumbsup:[/font]

I think your right Wabbit everyone has fallen behind Pany and they have proven they are the big dogs in the neighborhood. Everyone else will have to follow suit to compete but I dont see anything happing from anyone for at least 2-3 yrs.[font=&quot]
[/font]

[font=&quot]bilgami@hotmail.com
http://www.bilgamivideo.com[/font][font=&quot][/font]
 
bilgami said:
[font=&quot]BiLGaMi Video Productions[/font][font=&quot] :beer: :thumbsup:[/font]

I think your right Wabbit everyone has fallen behind Pany and they have proven they are the big dogs in the neighborhood. Everyone else will have to follow suit to compete but I dont see anything happing from anyone for at least 2-3 yrs.[font=&quot]
[/font]

[font=&quot]bilgami@hotmail.com
http://www.bilgamivideo.com[/font][font=&quot][/font]
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What about the XL3 ? Is Pany concerned with that ?
 
D_and_G said:
What about the XL3 ? Is Pany concerned with that ?
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As I stated above, Canon is a wild card, but I think that since they are part of the HDV consortium they will bring out an HDV camera. Probably a kick a** HDV camera, but still HDV on mini-dv. But who knows...

I think that Panasonic has got the edge for a while when it comes to their target market (filmmakers). IF the next Canon HDV comes out with 24P and 60i, JVC and Sony better watch their hind ends. However, this still brings up compatability issues. Will you be able to play back a Canon HDV tape on a Sony or JVC deck?
 
My apologies if I upset anyone saying this but I think it very unlikely that any camera manufacturer is ever going to target the indie filmaker. If they can pickup a large slice of that market in the process then sure, they'll factor them into the equations but they'd never exclusively target that market.
There simply isn't the dollars in it. Think about it. If you get the big break then you step up in the world, what you shoot on is no longer a big part of your costs, you can afford much more expensive kit than anything prosummerish. If you don't make it big time then you're not a good 'consummer' from a marketing point of view, you're always watching the dollars and buying the latest camera probably isn't high on your list of priorities.
Pannies P2 cameras are targeted at the ENG market, in that market they make a lot of sense and there's the dollars there to afford them, as there is for Sony's XDCAM systems. Both these solutions are pretty expensive for an indie filmaker, I'd suggest given the price of any of the current offerings from either Sony or Panasonic at that level, you could be better off shooting 16mm.
Just look at the number of HDV cameras Sony is shipping, over 35,000 units in one month! Does that make them a good or bad camera for an indie filmmaker? I doubt Sony gives a rats about it, they're too busy meeting demand from those who want the latest 'toy', most of the people I've seen with Z1s I doubt have a clue about how to use ANY camera but they're the people Sony and Panasonic will target at the prosummer level, it's simple economics. If in the process Sony or Canon or Panasonic happen to build something that the indie filmmaker likes and buys, it'll be but a small blip on their bottom line.
Of all those I've met that own cameras the DVX100 is by far the most popular (although that's quickly changing to the Z1) and not one of them bought the 100 to make a 'film'.
 
Thank You Jan and panasonic for P2 and DVCProHD. This is a dream come true for me no matter what people say.

There are many tools in my box and this one is welcome.

For those who like to complain they will never make a movie anyway.

www.spiritsthemovie.com

I will tell my storie with a flip book if I have to, but P2 is dream come true and valuable tool in my box.

Just my ten cent because I am tired of the P2 uneducated bashing.

Mthornton AKA Journeyfilm
 
robroysyd said:
Pannies P2 cameras are targeted at the ENG market, in that market they make a lot of sense and there's the dollars there to afford them,
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Here you would be wrong my friend. The majority of the features on the HVX200 are not there for the ENG, they are there for production.

Just look at the number of HDV cameras Sony is shipping, over 35,000 units in one month!
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Their figure was they have sold 35,000 total. And while I find that outsandingly difficult to believe it would be all that they have sold since October when the FX1 came out. They are not shipping 35,000 in one month.

Of all those I've met that own cameras the DVX100 is by far the most popular (although that's quickly changing to the Z1) and not one of them bought the 100 to make a 'film'.
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Actually, the majority of the people I have met that own a DVX100/A have made a film, like the the four that I met at the Triggerstreet Shorts event at Tribeca the other night. Two of them bought the camera after seeing what a friend had done with it(made a film) and decided to buy it and make their film. And I do not believe for a sencod that it is changing to the Z1 or even the FX1.

Best,

Jan
 
robroysyd said:
My apologies if I upset anyone saying this but I think it very unlikely that any camera manufacturer is ever going to target the indie filmaker. If they can pickup a large slice of that market in the process then sure, they'll factor them into the equations but they'd never exclusively target that market.
There simply isn't the dollars in it. .
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I think you underestimate Panasonic and their understanding of the market. Just look at the HVX on their website or brochures. The HVX is classified as part of The Panasonic "Digital Cinema" line of cameras. Now, let me think, a $6K "Digital Cinema" camera, huuummm, sounds alot like that would be perfect for the indie filmmaker.



robroysyd said:
Both these solutions are pretty expensive for an indie filmaker, I'd suggest given the price of any of the current offerings from either Sony or Panasonic at that level, you could be better off shooting 16mm.
to make a 'film'.
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You obiously have not used film before. There is now way to compare the cost of film to the cost of the Panasonic AG-HVX200. Even when you count for all the associated cost of upgrading to HD with the HVX, there is now way to compare to 16mm film.

I've noticed from these forums that the individuals that think the P2 are too expensive, still have the mind set that you pay $1700 and only get 4 minutes, which is not true. The re-use of the P2s, up to 100,000 times still is hard for some to let sink in.
 
robroysyd said:
My apologies if I upset anyone saying this but I think it very unlikely that any camera manufacturer is ever going to target the indie filmaker. If they can pickup a large slice of that market in the process then sure, they'll factor them into the equations but they'd never exclusively target that market.
There simply isn't the dollars in it. Think about it. If you get the big break then you step up in the world, what you shoot on is no longer a big part of your costs, you can afford much more expensive kit than anything prosummerish. If you don't make it big time then you're not a good 'consummer' from a marketing point of view, you're always watching the dollars and buying the latest camera probably isn't high on your list of priorities.
Pannies P2 cameras are targeted at the ENG market, in that market they make a lot of sense and there's the dollars there to afford them, as there is for Sony's XDCAM systems. Both these solutions are pretty expensive for an indie filmaker, I'd suggest given the price of any of the current offerings from either Sony or Panasonic at that level, you could be better off shooting 16mm.
Just look at the number of HDV cameras Sony is shipping, over 35,000 units in one month! Does that make them a good or bad camera for an indie filmmaker? I doubt Sony gives a rats about it, they're too busy meeting demand from those who want the latest 'toy', most of the people I've seen with Z1s I doubt have a clue about how to use ANY camera but they're the people Sony and Panasonic will target at the prosummer level, it's simple economics. If in the process Sony or Canon or Panasonic happen to build something that the indie filmmaker likes and buys, it'll be but a small blip on their bottom line.
Of all those I've met that own cameras the DVX100 is by far the most popular (although that's quickly changing to the Z1) and not one of them bought the 100 to make a 'film'.
Click to expand...
From Scott Billups "Digital Moviemaking" - Look at any other form of expression - painting, sculpting or writing, for example. Everyone has access to the tools of creation. Everyone has the ability to put some words to paper or pixels to liquid crystal as the case may be. A lot of people give it a shot and nothing happens. Doesn't necessarily mean that their words are less valuable. As the tools become affordable, the craft becomes an art form.
 
Rosestar said:
I've noticed from these forums that the individuals that think the P2 are too expensive, still have the mind set that you pay $1700 and only get 4 minutes, which is not true. The re-use of the P2s, up to 100,000 times still is hard for some to let sink in.
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But, of course, you are neglecting the archival issue. For a large majority of shooters, you're paying $1700 (for 4GB) and more for 8GB just for *temporary* storage. You still have the cost issues that other mediums have on top of that if you want to archive.

The advantage of P2 is that it has the throughput and capcity (and then some!) right now, and Panny is doing a great job fitting across the spectrum of their products hoping to get people into it. Optical will likely improve, but without the throughput right now, this technology is relegated to using MPEG2/MPEG4.

A great device to help Panny offset any future optical competition would be something like a P2 store but that would offload directly to optical using battery power (wow, would that be a killer device for P2 users!!!!). Right now, that's not really feasible, since higher capacity and throughput optical is not there yet.
 
PaulC and anyone with relevant concerns about the existing P2 system,

Besides criticism or suggesting prices of solid state memory storage be lowered,
what do you propose would make things better for shooters such as yourself?

Is there anything that Panasonic overlooked in this workflow that ought better be
accomplished with a different currently-available technology?

I'd like to hear what you think.
 
thisiswells said:
PaulC and anyone with relevant concerns about the existing P2 system,

Besides criticism or suggesting prices of solid state memory storage be lowered,
what do you propose would make things better for shooters such as yourself?

Is there anything that Panasonic overlooked in this workflow that ought better be
accomplished with a different currently-available technology?

I'd like to hear what you think.
Click to expand...

GOAL: Approximately 4 hours of battery powered, totally portable shooting. On top of that, having the ability to easily archive during or at the end of the day is necessary.

To achieve this goal:

In terms of existing technology:

(1) You already mentioned the price, and we've been over that. I believe it can come down, but this is a guess. Rank: Fairly imporant.

(2) The P2 Store size should be 70GB instead of 60GB (and I think cheaper than it is, too). With the 60GB device, you're limited with the card sizes you can fully dump onto the system when they come available in 1, 2, 3 etc years. For example, let's say Panny comes out with a 16GB card in late 2006 and it sells for $3000. You buy two of those for a whopping $6000, but when you go to download them onto the **60** GB P2 Store, you can only do so fully 3 times instead of 4. The fourth time you use that $3000 card you're going to have to have you eye on the amount of footage you're putting on it instead of something more important. Sure, by the time the 16GB cards come out there might be better devices, but you'd like to buy something like the P2 Store when the camera comes out that you could use for years to come, eg it should fit with the increasing P2 card sizes. Rank: So-so important.

(3) If I were Panny, really, I would have tried to figure out a way to put a DVCPRO HD tape deck on the camera instead of DV. I'm not sure if you can shoot DV to DVCPRO HD tape, but I'm assuming you can. Then, you could shoot DV/DV50/DVCPRO HD to tape or to P2. This might make the camera a little more expensive and bigger, but it would dramatically increase HD usability. Rank: Very important.

(4) We've already talked Firestore...this is ok. Rank: Fairly important.

[added this after first post]

(5) If I were Panny, I'd make a version of this camera with removable lens (obviously more expensive). Rank: So-so importance for me, much more important for others no doubt.

In terms of future technology, I would add:

(6) As *soon* as optical disk technology has the ability, build a battery powered device that can offload P2 cards onto optical disk. You should be able to offload in multiple sessions before "closing" the disk. A 50GB disk could very nicely take 3 16GB cards in three different sessions and then you "close" the disk. This should be possible in mid-to-late 2006. Rank: Very important.
 
Ok, but regarding thisiswell question, what would you have done different in designing this camera to be available in 2005?

1. Been covered to death, will happen just maybe not on a time you like. I imagine the 8 gig cards will be out just about in time for the camera. I imagine most will be sold with the camera package, so they can keep the price higher on these for awhile. As long as they are selling out, the price won't move much.

2. not really about the HVX but a reasonable request.

3. This too has been covered to death, a HD tape drive is far too expensive and would more then double the price, nough said.

4. Outside Panasonic's sphere but as you said, gonna happen.

5. Not about storage but a request that is reasonable. It would again drive up the costs and considering how much concern there is over P2 prices, why would Panasonic add something that because of cost won't be utilized by but a few customers (figure several thousand for a lower end wideangle lens...well over $10,000 for HD lens). The remaining users are stuck with a heavier, more expensive camera.

I hope they come out with a DVCPro HD shoulder mount camera in the under $20,000 range. We will see at NAB 2006 :) In the meantime I have no doubt someone will yank off HVX stock lens and design a system to mount HD prime lens.

6. It probably won't take much time for this once optical is available and Panasonic doesn't have to do it. No worries here.

Again, for all the moaning about P2, would in the real world would you do differently?
 
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