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The notion of a transition being extra costly is highly exaggerated, per usual.
Yeah, if one has $20,000 worth of MFT glass and would like the same for his or her new E-mount or RF-mount camera then it might be a painful journey, but that's not a realistic case or observation for most people.
Many who are interested in an upgrade to a newer [few thousand] full-frame sensor already own some of the glass and/or are highly aware of many options available on the market.
And, like many of us have done various times in our careers, you can start slow with a simple zoom like a 24-70mm or 24-105mm and maybe one fast prime, and the additional costs aren't as mind-boggling as they are made out to be in the grand scheme of things especially with what the new format and features will bring to one's business and life.
I disagree entirely. Even a few lenses will quickly add up to a couple grand. Yes one can start with some cheaper slower lenses but not all new systems have those options. Plus it’s still an added cost. Moving to the R6 I have without a doubt put a lot more into this than I would have if I just waited for the GH6. $2,500 body + $1,000 24-240 + $200 50mm + $200 EF to RF adapter. Im about $4k into RF now and still don’t have anywhere close to the lens coverage I hade with m43. I still need a 85mm, a macro lens and a 24mm or 28mm. That’s another roughly $2k I will eventually have to invest.
I didn’t have a lot of EF lenses and most of my lenses were m43. So for me moving to Sony, Fuji, Canon or Panasonic FF meant I had to buy new lenses. I could buy more EF lenses but that is still an added extra cost.
that’s why I say I don’t think a $2,500 price tag on a GH6 is going to be a negative for most users waiting for it. Most of those users likely also have m43 glass and moving to any FF system means a much higher cost of entry to get to a usable point. Many of us have been doing this long enough to not want to compose and just get by with crappy slow lenses to start with. We want to upgrade, not downgrade our production value.
This is why I think the Panasonic FF series have been horrible sellers. The loyal Panasonic users cannot afford a more expensive body and insanely overpriced lenses. While lens options may be getting better when the S1 first came out there was little to no affordable lens options for the L mount.
At least for me RF had a $200 50mm f1.8 which made it a good replacement for my Leica 25mm f1.4 m43 lens that was my workhorse for years. Still I have invested a lot more than $2,500 and will eventually invest a lot more. A GH6 would have meant just $2,500 and I would be done.
Panasonic stands a decent chance with the GH6 if they can get the darn thing out. They have a decent loyal user base and a history of lenses and accessories. It’s a comfortable system for users and a small investment vs moving to a new system.
Your case scenario is tailored to be a perfect example to support your argument - which is nice, I get it - but it's exaggerated, as mentioned.
It doesn't need to be explained that someone with a dozen MFT lenses for every single purpose for his or her work will need to spend more money if he or she would like the same package when upgrading to a new system that is not compatible with the same glass, but that is not the situation for everyone.
The point I've been making is you are generalizing and grouping everyone, every upgrade in the same money cluster, which isn't accurate.
Just like how you shared a thought the other week about no one owning a camera in your family in Wisconsin when growing up and you made some conclusion from that in regards to camera companies and sales.
While everyone I knew in New York had a new camera every 6 months, but that's only what I experienced and it doesn't mean I think everyone on the planet did, obviously know better than that.
Different people, different lives, man...
The positive in all of this is that at least they have some time to evaluate the market and hopefully decide to make it even better than it was going to be (regardless of their press release & pending its release).
And that's the only way I see the camera being more expensive than the $1700 full-frame S5 (it's $2K at this time but drops to $1700 at some point on a monthly basis) unless they announce that AF has been significantly improved (and it actually has been).
Still though...it is an uphill battle no matter what.
The S5 is $2,000 right now plus its not exactly the flagship model of the S series. The GH6 may have stills features more in line with the S1.
Plus like I mentioned its not going to be so cut and dry from GH5 owners to just move to the S5 when one has to factor in lens costs. Even at $2,000 for the S5 and $2,500 for the GH6 if one owns two or more m43 lenses that price difference is easily negated and surpassed. It doesn't take much to make up and surpass that $500 difference. Plus the S5 is a rather old model now with older processing. The GH6 could very well do a lot of things better.
Even if users have EF lenses with a Speedbooster one of the most used lenses for those users is the Sigma 18-35 f.1.8 which is a APS-C lens. Thats means it can only ever be used in APS-C crop mode on the S5 meaning less detail or less sensitivity. A GH6 with its increased sensor technology, better processing and the focal reduced f1.2 lens could end up performing just as well in many cases. Plus there is absolutely no video AF at all with adapted lenses. Moving to the S5 is just about the absolute worst solution for EF lens owners. They are 1000x better off moving to Sony or Canon. Lets just go ahead and call the S5 a non option going forward. That line will never do well. End of story. I consider it foolish at this point for anyone to invest in L mount glass or the S series of cameras unless they already have and want to keep going while it is still around. Panasonic is never ever going to se positive sales unless they pull a fast 180 and release some affordable budget lenses in the $200 - $500 price range. Even then if m43 mount has a questionable future the L mount is 100x worse. I just don't consider it a very wise investment considering the alternatives out there now.
Its all about a loyal user base. M43 still has a loyal user base. Canon and Nikon still have a loyal user base. Sony has a loyal user base. The L mount does not and likely never will. We have said it many times but Panasonic mad a grave mistake not making a FF line with some kind of upgrade path for m43 users. Canon and Nikon each have perfect older lens mount support for their older lenses. Thats allows existing users to move forward gradually. Sony is pretty well established now and has a huge selection of lens options. L mount is DOA as far as I am concerned.
So a GH6 could be $3,000 and I see it having huge value over a $2,000 S5 just because existing users can move to it with no effort. Maybe that isn't a factor for you but it will be a factor for many. The way I look at it if m43 users really didn't care about the abysmal lens choices for the S5 they would have moved by now. They didn't move because its just not practical for many users. Panasonic also blew it with it horrendous continuous AF support for EF adapting. For the love of digital images they could have at least made a darn lens mount that could communicate well with EF considering how many GH users use EF glass and Speedboosters. Yeah DFD AF sucks on the S5 but right now EF AF is beyond sucking and doesn't work at all.
Even from a cinema lens perspective I know a lot of people that moved away from Rokinon and will never go back. They now use Meike or other alternatives that are m43 mount. The GH6 and P4k are much more realistic options for them right now until we get better FF cinema options. Considering the EF lens mount is gradually being phased out I'm not even sure how much longer investing in EF glass will be. Cinema cameras are going to be in an interesting spot when they have to pick a mirrorless FF mount to switch to. E or RF the two most likely options. Assuming Canon will allow RF that is. They seem to have a pretty tight reign over the RF mount right now. Realistically its looking like E mount may be the new cinema camera future. Kind of makes the most sense and there are a massive pile or Sony and 3rd party E mount lenses out there now.
Until that point m43 mount is still la very realistic option which can be adapted to EF until its hard to get EF lenses in the future.
If Panasonic will have a non-Sony GH6 sensor...
Maybe not fully, but I think most would be more than capable with AF.
I say that for a few reasons...
(1) They were built for demanding photography purposes.
(2) I've personally used old EF lenses with modern Canon DPAF systems and they worked okay. Yes, loud and clunky, and some slower than others like a 2010 budget lens versus, say, a 2010 'L' lens, but they performed okay depending on the application. (Obviously you want the best-of-the-best for someone running around at f/1.2.)
(3) The lenses work well now when they do work. IMO, it's painfully obvious Panasonic AF is more than ready but it's locked away in the box. Panasonic AF can work so fine at times (video) and then it just bugs out for no reason when nothing in the frame has changed. IMO, that kind of performance just doesn't make sense and I think it's coded and seeded to randomly fail.
There's supposedly a timer for overheating (I say supposedly because I can't confirm that because I don't know that to be true, but I can confirm I reset overheating multiple times in Canon cameras)...so why can't there be a timer for AF?
You couldn't make the overheating work in your particular line of work because of possibly longer recording times at times (and neither could I back in July 2020), but you can just reset the timer these days.
As far as the best AF falling short, it's really the system falling short as well, not just the lenses. (And third-party lenses shouldn't have perfect Sony communication like Sony lenses do. Probably varies.)
Much like A7IV had the lens breathing controlled only on Sony glass, the Samyang problem looks to be - wait for it! - a logic bomb. To paraphrase George Orwell, all E-mount lenses are equal but some are more equal than others.