Ted Spencer
Veteran
This is nonsense. Figures don't lie, but liars can figure. I've seen those reports too, and they're grossly misrepresenting what's actually happening out there.
DVD is the fastest-adopted technology in history, over 50% of the homes in America had a DVD player within five years of the technology's introduction. The articles claiming that blu-ray is outpacing DVD are saying that PS3 sales should be added to those of dedicated Blu-Ray players. And when you do that, sure, it looks like Blu-Ray is taking off -- but the simple fact of the matter is, it isn't. It's a big ol' flop. All you have to do is look at the disc sales to see the true story, and to see as to whether all those PS3 buyers are buying them to use them as Blu-Ray players (hint: they aren't).
Look at the sales statistics. According to Nielsen VideoScan, currently 92% of titles sold are on standard-def DVD, and 8% are on Blu-Ray. Even among the very, very, very best-selling titles, like the #1 Blu-Ray title for the week of July 19th 2009 ("Mad Men: Season 2"), Blu-Ray accounts for only 21.73% of the discs sold; standard-def DVD is still 78.27%.
For the week ending 7/19/09, the total revenue of all disc sales reported was just over $139 million. Of that $139 million, only $11.18 million was from Blu-Ray, and standard DVD accounted for $127.89 million. That makes Blu-Ray's chunk of the pie a dismal 8.04%.
Blu-Ray has been on the market for over three years now. The first player was shipped in June of 2006. And it has an 8% market share on sold titles. By comparison, the first DVD player in the US was shipped in March 1997, and within four years sales of DVD discs surpassed sales of VHS tapes ($5.4 billion for DVD vs. $4.9 for VHS in 2001). So unless Blu-Ray has a massively super-skyrocketing leap from 8% market share to 51% market share in the next nine months, it's pretty safe to say that the Blu-Ray adoption rate pales in comparison to the DVD adoption rate.
Thanks for the info, Barry.