Does anybody know how to get a viral campaign going? My wife and I expect we will be getting the stimulus check. We don't need it. We'll pass it on to an appropriate organization. I suspect there's a lot of us out there that will do the same. But I'd like to encourage others that may not be needy. I have no skills in this regard. Does anybody know someone that can kick off a campaign to get the stimulus checks to where they will be most needed? Any national network connections out there? Can we get the word out on the morning shows, talk shows, etc?
Coronavirus Impact
- Thread starter thefilmaddict
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Good initiative. That said, companies are way ahead of you already - they simply will dock the pay of those who receive the stimulus by that amount, so you get that much less pay, basically the companies pocket the stimulus money for themselves:
Texas company looking to dock stimulus money from paychecks, relieve their payroll: report
See? No need to worry about if you need the stimulus money - poof! Taken care of!
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Not sure, but this guy on Twitter (a journalist) is involved with a GoFundMe for out-of-work hourly/tipped workers: https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1243552363215896576?s=09
Scroll down to the 2nd post in the thread and you'll see the GoFundMe link.
I see a lot of posts about it. Might be a good thing to contribute to, or maybe he can help you start a new initiative. It seems like he reads most of the messages he gets, and he knows a lot more about viral social media campaigns than I do.
Run&Gun
Veteran
I see some serious backlash coming...
Barry_Green
Moderator
Well, see, that's the problem right there. Unless you know how many are infected, you can't possibly know the fatality rate. Without knowing the # of asymptomatic or mild cases, you don't know what to divide to generate a rate.
Initial projections were that the COVID-19 would spread to infect up to 70% of humanity (up to 5.5 billion people). Of course, initial projections rarely bear any relationship to reality. But if we assume that 70% of any given population will be infected, then we can use the given death count to calculate a projected rate. And if the 70% are already infected, then yes, each day that goes by will drive the death rate number higher, because the # of infected people will be at a generally static rate.
The problem is, without widespread testing, we have no actual idea of how many people have been infected, and without knowing that, it's impossible to accurately derive a fatality rate. If you furthermore then compound it with the question of strongly disparate government reporting rates of infection (Germany vs Italy, for example, or the suspected artificially low numbers coming from China and Russia) then -- I don't think we're at a point where we can even conduct an accurate sampling of a subset of a given population.
Finally, the death rate is going to be strongly affected by the status of the available medical care in any given country. If the hospital is overwhelmed, lots of folks are going to die who maybe might not have in another area. The fatality rate of the virus is, therefore, directly related to our behavior towards it. If we all go to Spring Break and Mardi Gras, and then overwhelm the medical capacity, the fatality rate of the coronavirus will be higher, perhaps dramatically higher, than it would be if we all kept to social distancing.
Here's an example: the mayor of Houston just got on TV and told us the current numbers he has, which were 232 cases. Interestingly to me, the majority of those cases were for people aged 0-49. If I remember the numbers properly, those 80+ accounted for only about 4% of the cases, the same percentage as those 0-19. But wait -- aren't the 80+ the highest risk group? If so, why so few cases in that high risk group? Because (IMO) those 80+ are the ones who are most aggressively quarantining themselves off! And if those people don't get sick in the first place, then the overall fatality rate of the virus goes down, because it will then be primarily affecting those with stronger immune systems who may stand a better chance of fighting it off.
Which is all to say -- there is no "fatality rate" that can be associated with the virus. We can't predict how many people will die from it, because our own behavior changes the likelihood of us getting it, which in turn changes the likelihood of the most susceptible getting it, and also changes the likelihood of the hospitals being overwhelmed, which gives everyone who DOES get it a better chance of surviving it.
The numbers really are like the time travel paradox -- if you know what's going to happen, and you then change your behavior to avoid it happening, did you just avoid the bad thing? Or was the fact you knew about it, and took action, the exact thing that caused the dreaded event to happen in the first place? We're in the same place with this virus -- knowing about it is changing our behavior to it, which is directly affecting its ability to infect us and our ability to respond to it, which is all directly affecting the total number of deaths that will be attributed to it.
Which is one of those sick situations, because the more aggressively we fight it, once we come out the other side, the more people that will be saying "what? That wasn't so bad at all, everyone overreacted, we never needed to implement all these restrictions in the first place." Sigh.
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
But if everyone is overestimating the mortality rate, what use is a larger sample size? Why not look at the most accurate data only, which would probably be from Germany, Iceland or South Korea based on having the highest testing frequency? (Or a pool of those 3.)
GoFundMe is ripe with fraud opportunities. I will send my money to a legit local organization.
ahalpert
Major Contributor
That's understandable - I assure you I'm not trying to defraud you! I saw his campaign signal boosted by Ben Affleck, which I thought indicated his ability to reach a large audience. Maybe he could give your initiative a signal boost anyway: https://twitter.com/BenAffleck/status/1244023720181510144?s=09
Batutta
Major Contributor
I guess we'll only know in like, 18 months, when this is all over for real. Reminds of the AVID render time calculator on old machines, that kept going down as the render completed and only gave you an accurate time when it was finished rendering.
NorBro
Major Contributor
Some more information for your overall consideration (and evaluation & education):
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspecte...cribes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html
https://www.yahoo.com/news/suspecte...cribes-chinas-biosecurity-risk-144526820.html
cyvideo
Veteran
The Dutch are only now pulling back from the herd immunity policy. The first overflow Dutch patients are now arriving in Aachen in Germany. The Dutch now have over 11,000 cases. 1,100 new as of the 29th. They have a fast building infection problem because of their initial policies.
Forbes, usually considered a fairly reasonable source
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/monday-briefing-uk-lockdown-could-last-six-months
The Netherlands government. I would suggest a fairly reliable source. If governments are not reliable sources we are all screwed.
https://www.government.nl/topics/coronavirus-covid-19
Sober reading from a Jewish viewpoint. Because of their more closed communities they are prone to being hit hard in the Netherlands
https://www.jta.org/2020/03/24/life...errifying-to-me-and-nearby-jewish-communities
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groveChuck
U-matic Member
Sterilized the wireless mic (either isopropyl alcohol or Lysol wipes, not sure) while wearing gloves, placed mic in Ziploc bag provided by subject, who then miked themself. You know, normal- the new normal...
Saw a 60 Minutes piece on Corona virus on Sunday night- they had a wide profile 2 shot on a front porch with reporter and subject about 10ft apart (no masks) and 2 boom mics. And a typical pretty lighting interior interview including an over the shoulder 2 shot, and they were about 10ft apart, too (big room).
They also had a piece from China where the bodies were piling up faster than the crematoriums and urns could keep up with.
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Jaime Valles
Veteran
Just heard that one of my friends who was hospitalized with COVID-19 was released and is now recovering at home. I needed some good news today.
Cary Knoop
Veteran
:thumbup:
groveChuck
U-matic Member
Is anybody desperate for 3M N95 masks? (I got a box early from a friend with a body shop, gave away a bunch)
Crazy expensive- 20 for $300, eBay from New Jersey... (found the same price from China, but...)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/174236149128?ViewItem=&item=174236149128
Crazy expensive- 20 for $300, eBay from New Jersey... (found the same price from China, but...)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/174236149128?ViewItem=&item=174236149128
Cary Knoop
Veteran
eBay should immediately kick off those people!
One got arrested today in NYC:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/30/brooklyn-man-arrested-for-hoarding-masks-coughing-on-fbi-agents/
groveChuck
U-matic Member
Cary- no doubt it's gouging, but you know what? If I didn't already have mine, I'd buy them.
My wife has COPD (from 2nd hand smoke thanks to her a**hole 1st husband), and with a global respiratory disease, I'll do whatever it takes... it's just money.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I know many would run you over rushing to buy them...
My wife has COPD (from 2nd hand smoke thanks to her a**hole 1st husband), and with a global respiratory disease, I'll do whatever it takes... it's just money.
You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but I know many would run you over rushing to buy them...
cyvideo
Veteran
On an upbeat note it is good to see many different outfits contributing. Like the Mercedes F1 team. Ten days from design to delivery after testing by the NHS goes out to hospital with 10 days.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-as-f1-teams-join-ventilators-effort-11965584
On a more downbeat note thgough one has to ask how reliable is Newsweek's recent report? I don't know but years ago they were regarded as one of most reliable sources on Vietnam casualties. I covered the latter part of the Vietnam war filing stories out of Bangkok on R & R GI's and Phnom Penh covering Operation Menu when it started in '69. Newsweek then was considered a good reference for most of us expat reporters and camera crews as to what was going down in Vietnam. So if any part of this filing from Newsweek is anywhere near close to the facts it is probably going to skew the current modeling on this pandemic. I can see a lot of spread projections having to be rejigged. Not good.
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covi...ata-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914
Chris Young
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-as-f1-teams-join-ventilators-effort-11965584
On a more downbeat note thgough one has to ask how reliable is Newsweek's recent report? I don't know but years ago they were regarded as one of most reliable sources on Vietnam casualties. I covered the latter part of the Vietnam war filing stories out of Bangkok on R & R GI's and Phnom Penh covering Operation Menu when it started in '69. Newsweek then was considered a good reference for most of us expat reporters and camera crews as to what was going down in Vietnam. So if any part of this filing from Newsweek is anywhere near close to the facts it is probably going to skew the current modeling on this pandemic. I can see a lot of spread projections having to be rejigged. Not good.
https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covi...ata-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914
Chris Young
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ahalpert
Major Contributor
This was a very moving speech by NY governor rallying the National Guardsmen who are building makeshift hospitals in NYC.
He says they're on a "rescue mission" to save our most vulnerable from an "invisible beast." He says they're "living a moment in history" that we'll write and talk about for generations. He says it will be "a long day, a hard day, an ugly day, and a sad day."
https://youtu.be/p_LSilzVP74?t=136
He says they're on a "rescue mission" to save our most vulnerable from an "invisible beast." He says they're "living a moment in history" that we'll write and talk about for generations. He says it will be "a long day, a hard day, an ugly day, and a sad day."
https://youtu.be/p_LSilzVP74?t=136
cyvideo
Veteran
Very powerful. Cometh the hour cometh the man. Nelson Mandela I seem to recall.
Andrew Cuomo is the man for the time. History sometimes finds the leader a country needs. He has been on point with so much passion and honesty that the people of NY can feel and know his honesty. He will become part of that folklore that will becone part of NY's history. Many a country could do with a national leader let alone a State leader with Cuomo's integrity. Put simply the man would get my vote.
Chris Young
Andrew Cuomo is the man for the time. History sometimes finds the leader a country needs. He has been on point with so much passion and honesty that the people of NY can feel and know his honesty. He will become part of that folklore that will becone part of NY's history. Many a country could do with a national leader let alone a State leader with Cuomo's integrity. Put simply the man would get my vote.
Chris Young
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