Run&Gun
Veteran
I guess it all depends on your personality and lifestyle. For a typical day that I’m not working, my day has changed very little. I just basically have to take my lunch ‘to-go’ instead of sitting down and eating in a restaurant.
Coronavirus Impact
- Thread starter thefilmaddict
- Start date
- Status
I guess it all depends on your personality and lifestyle. For a typical day that I’m not working, my day has changed very little. I just basically have to take my lunch ‘to-go’ instead of sitting down and eating in a restaurant.
Matt Gottshalk
Resident Preditor
Lots of good info here from a front line NYC doctor:
Last edited:
Cary Knoop
Veteran
I personally have a lot of trouble agreeing with the slide presented by the Coronavirus Task Force:
Mitigation stretches out infection over time, it does not prevent it unless we would stay locked down forever. There may be seasonal effects, the virus could go dormant for periods of time, but eventually, it will be back.
Death rates obviously do go up if people cannot be treated if hospitals are overloaded but by a factor of 10?
I think not.
The sad truth is that there currently is not much to treat when someone has COVID-19.
Patients can be put on ventilators but the chances of survival after being put on a ventilator are only 20% based on New York city data.
We can't stay "hiding in our caves" forever, I believe that eventually, we have to face the virus and move on living.
Mitigation stretches out infection over time, it does not prevent it unless we would stay locked down forever. There may be seasonal effects, the virus could go dormant for periods of time, but eventually, it will be back.
Death rates obviously do go up if people cannot be treated if hospitals are overloaded but by a factor of 10?
I think not.
The sad truth is that there currently is not much to treat when someone has COVID-19.
Patients can be put on ventilators but the chances of survival after being put on a ventilator are only 20% based on New York city data.
We can't stay "hiding in our caves" forever, I believe that eventually, we have to face the virus and move on living.
Last edited:
Cary Knoop
Veteran
ahalpert
Major Contributor
I personally have a lot of trouble agreeing with the slide presented by the Coronavirus Task Force:
Mitigation stretches out infection over time, it does not prevent it unless we would stay locked down forever. There may be seasonal effects, the virus could go dormant for periods of time, but eventually, it will be back.
Death rates obviously do go up if people cannot be treated if hospitals are overloaded but by a factor of 10?
I think not.
The sad truth is that there currently is not much to treat when someone has COVID-19.
Patients can be put on ventilators but the chances of survival after being put on a ventilator are only 20% based on New York city data.
We can't stay "hiding in our caves" forever, I believe that eventually, we have to face the virus and move on living.
All the economists I've read say that the economy can't function during a pandemic. We can shut down because millions are sick and dying or we can shut down by choice. The pandemic is hurting the economy, not the shutdown.
Yes, the graph you show would rise again after the end of lockdown measures. But we can increase hospital surge capacity, possibly develop antivirals, and eventually have a vaccine in order to save millions of lives.
On the optimistic side, I read a report by Scott Gottlieb saying we can loosen restrictions after we do 3 things:
1. Infections fall for 14 days straight
2. Mass testing capability
3. Mass contact tracing capability (probably by monitoring close contacts by cell phone location data) so we can quarantine asymptomatic carriers
Liam Hall
Veteran
This virus looks set to unload a whole sack of s*%t on Europe and America but that will be nothing compared to what it will do in the poorest parts of the world.
Here's a fundraiser I put together from outtakes of my shoot in a remote part of Ghana a few weeks ago. I wanted to help the fixer that supported my shoot there to raise money for her charity. Sky TV graciously allowed me to use my footage despite our doco not having aired yet.
And here is where you can donate:
https://www.humanitascharity.org/donate
https://vimeo.com/401334164
Here's a fundraiser I put together from outtakes of my shoot in a remote part of Ghana a few weeks ago. I wanted to help the fixer that supported my shoot there to raise money for her charity. Sky TV graciously allowed me to use my footage despite our doco not having aired yet.
And here is where you can donate:
https://www.humanitascharity.org/donate
https://vimeo.com/401334164
Last edited:
FrameFarmMedia
Veteran
I fear for the numbers when India gets hit full swing.
Matt Gottshalk
Resident Preditor
All indicators are India will be a real mess, yes.
cpreston
Veteran
The Imperial College model was used to compare the predicted outcome in poorer countries vs wealthier countries. The model showed that the relative impact on poorer countries will be quite a bit less severe. In addition. mitigation and suppression tactics don't have as much of an effect.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...ollege-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020v2.pdf
Last edited:
Good on you, Liam!
Mitch Gross
Veteran
I personally have a lot of trouble agreeing with the slide presented by the Coronavirus Task Force:
Mitigation stretches out infection over time, it does not prevent it unless we would stay locked down forever. There may be seasonal effects, the virus could go dormant for periods of time, but eventually, it will be back.
Death rates obviously do go up if people cannot be treated if hospitals are overloaded but by a factor of 10?
I think not.
The sad truth is that there currently is not much to treat when someone has COVID-19.
Patients can be put on ventilators but the chances of survival after being put on a ventilator are only 20% based on New York city data.
We can't stay "hiding in our caves" forever, I believe that eventually, we have to face the virus and move on living.
That graph charts deaths, not infection. Dramatically more people will die if it all happens at once because the healthcare system is overrun. That is the point. Stretched over time, patients can get access to ventilators. They may only contract mild cases. When they contract the illness they may get more immediate care that keeps the illness relatively minor. But when everyone is sick all at once then relatively minor cases of the illness can become deadly. And then there's all the other people with other illnesses who will not be able to get care because COVID-19 patients crowd them out. Many will die because of that as well.
Liam Hall
Veteran
I read that. I've been to Africa many times. It will be a disaster.
Liam Hall
Veteran
Thanks Mark.
Cary Knoop
Veteran
I am not against a shelter-in-place but I don't think that as much as 10 times as many people would die if we would not do that.
There is currently no treatment, there are very limited options to actually save lives. Ventilators help but unfortunately only 20% of the patients on a ventilator survive, and the longer they are on it the direr the forecast of survival.
Given those facts I think that saying that treatment makes a 10 to 1 decrease in death rates is, in my opinion, an overstatement.
Last edited:
ahalpert
Major Contributor
Good news - hydroxychloroquine has shown positive effects in a controlled study in China: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
This is one big reason to flatten the curve - if we postpone infections, we can develop treatments and improve the odds of survival.
Hope you are wrong on that. South Africa is doing a bang up job of controlling this thing, and apparently the infection rates are very low. A lot of Africa has been less exposed, and international travel has stopped, so I think there's grounds for optimism. Not trying to downplay it at all, and I guess I'm strongly hoping, and keeping my fingers crossed, but let's not catastrophize quite yet.
This may transpire to be a mostly developed world problem. That's good insofar as that's where most medical resources are located, but bad because those are the primary economic engines - if those economies tank badly, then all we have left to get growth going again will be China and South Korea plus perhaps Japan. And a world economic recession is never good for the health of world populations.
cpreston
Veteran
Yes, that is the basic takeaway from the Imperial College study. In most of the developing country, the people who would be dying from Covid-19 have already died from illnesses that would have been treated in more developed countries. It's a good example of both how our preconceived notions of how this will play out may be completely wrong and how the modeling hinges on some assumptions that may be completely wrong. My first rule is to discount any graph or chart that does not show exact time frames or quantities. Also, none of the models right now are taking into account the possibility of better treatments and possible seasonal variations in infection rates.
cyvideo
Veteran
Yes no real solutions to this dilemma for governments. What you are suggesting as a possibility, rioting is what is now confronting certain governments, like Italy for example.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...grip-in-south-with-fears-of-looting-and-riots
Somebody asked about how long an immunity to Covid 19 would last. A very pertinent question in the face of the fact that there is no anti vaccine. I heard Dr. Fauci on the news today say that an anti vaccine is still likely to be 12-18 months out.
He went on to say America is now comparing it's Covid progression to that of Italy. He added that the closest relative to CoV-2 is the SARS virus. The developed immunity from SARS is between twelve to thirty-six months. After that time reinfection is a possibility. This really does go to demonstrate that an anti vaccine really is a high priority target for governments. Worldwide every man and his dog is working on it which is good.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucel...how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#1d40c5bf5c0f
Meanwhile back here. How long we will be locked down in Australia? We have just been told in the last half hour... THREE MONTHS and maybe longer if necessary. The Prime Mister has been on TV in the last ten minutes saying don't be surprised if it's six months.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...in-90-days-as-coronavirus-cases-fall/12112182
Tthis is how our city of Sydney looks today after the two's a couple and three's a crowd order. Never though I would ever witness anything like this anywhere in the world within my lifetime. You cannot stop anywhere. Sit down on a city park bench with a coffee and you will moved on by the police. If you are out you must be on the move going from A to B.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LziiqtPyoPc&feature=youtu.be
What a lot of us are finding a little hard to understand is news coming from the States that not all Sates are imposing at the minimum a stay at home orders. Most of us here are not happy to be locked down but we know it has to be of benefit in the long run... hopefully! Since all this has landed on our heads our national infection spread is dropping on a day by day basis and we have a total death toll of 24.
All best wherever you are on the globe. Stay distant, stay well.
Chris Young
- Status