C100: Canon layoffs

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DLD said:
I couldn't find the actual DXO survey (the contained link was dead) but the summary is quite telling.

https://www.thephoblographer.com/2017/09/13/smartphone-users-want-better-lens-improved-zoom/

It seems that a large percentage of the smartphone users would like more zzzzzzzzoom.
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These are the same folks that wanted the Nikon COOLPIX P1000 camera, thinking that having a monster zoom will allow them to make amazing shots at 50x normal magnification, until the find out how hard it is to shoot at such high magnification, and how poor quality the image is.

It's like the folks that want 20x non-stabilized binoculars that they are going to hand-hold at the stadium, and then they find they can't keep anything stable in the optical field.
 
So, the rumors sites report that Canon will trump Sony's 61 MPX sensor with a 70 or even 80 MPX data collector in the R-mount. Maybe that'll shake the market up a little. I can't tell.

As to the external lenses for smartphones, it looks like 35% of buyers might be interested. The DXO survey was taken in 2017, before Oppo and Huawei announced their periscope zoom models. 35% of the ~ 1.3 billion units sold is about 400 million, whereas the digital camera industry moves about 20 million units annually. So, while the OEM externals may never happen, the periscopes with pixel shifts may be enough.
 
For argument's sake - this came out a few months ago when Huawei P30 was released. A very non-scientific survey of this site's readers.

Are periscope lenses the next big thing in smartphones?

For better or worse - 38%
I hope so. I want it - 54%
I hope not. Stalker's dream - 2%
No. It's a gimmick - 6%

https://www.androidpit.com/are-periscope-cameras-the-next-trend-in-smartphone-photography

PS. I did not vote. I just found the article.

And this is 3 years old about Apple's patents on "folding lenses".

https://petapixel.com/2016/04/21/apple-patent-shows-apple-may-add-optical-zoom-iphone-7/
 
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I love our scope creep. In a thread titled Canon layoffs, we're now going to into consumer preferences for Smartphone design.
Nothing wrong with that, I kind of like it, it's more like an organic discussion than a series of posts about one thing.
 
The thread about Canon's layoffs almost instantly became a thread about the state of the whole photo-video industry, with the main line of reasoning that "you ain't seen nothing yet". My contention is that the aforementioned photo-video industry is going to shrink much, much further to the point that only professional tier units - which include the higher budget models for the well heeled enthusiasts/addicts - will be manufactured and everything else will be swallowed by the smartphones. And that means layoffs not only at Canon service centers but at every spot, including retail.
 
Here comes more layoffs. More projects cut. More chaos. Canon isn't an island. If Canon's cameras are taking a beating, it's going to be the same for the others. Cameras are such a small slice of Panasonic's pie, they are not a line item in the financial report so it's not so easy to see what is happening at Panasonic. Sony doesn't file financial reports so you can't see anything on how they're doing.
 
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Well color me stupid. I thought for sure I looked for a financial report last quarter and read that they didn't file one.

No, I've not heard of Black Swan theory.
 
Paul F said:
... No, I've not heard of Black Swan theory.
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A pretty decent summary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

My theory on the Black Swan Theory as it applies to the Canon layoffs and the general decline of the pho-video industry is that there's a simultaneous triple wedge - a huge recent jump in the smartphone camera quality due to the pixel-shifting to higher resolution and the periscope zooms (acting in unison); the anticipated but still sudden shift to mirrorless by Canon and Nikon, with a simultaneous move by Panasonic into the full frame; and the near limit of the imaging technology as it pertains to the human eye in resolution and the dynamic range.

Or, in plain terms, a high end smartphone camera system is good enough for almost anything but BiF and action sports photography and 4K-6K-8K video. And that does the trick for most consumers, hard line hobbyists and gear addicts aside.
 
DLD said:
A pretty decent summary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

My theory on the Black Swan Theory as it applies to the Canon layoffs and the general decline of the pho-video industry is that there's a simultaneous triple wedge - a huge recent jump in the smartphone camera quality due to the pixel-shifting to higher resolution and the periscope zooms (acting in unison); the anticipated but still sudden shift to mirrorless by Canon and Nikon, with a simultaneous move by Panasonic into the full frame; and the near limit of the imaging technology as it pertains to the human eye in resolution and the dynamic range.

Or, in plain terms, a high end smartphone camera system is good enough for almost anything but BiF and action sports photography and 4K-6K-8K video. And that does the trick for most consumers, hard line hobbyists and gear addicts aside.
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This all makes sense to me. Of course, there are always the disruptors, the Chinese or someone else could come to market with something that nobody has thought of at an insane price point and disrupt the whole market. But your scenario seems pretty likely based upon what we know.
 
Moving forward every company will be tasked as people have developed specific tastes that weren't much of a reality several years ago.
 
puredrifting said:
This all makes sense to me. Of course, there are always the disruptors, the Chinese or someone else could come to market with something that nobody has thought of at an insane price point and disrupt the whole market. But your scenario seems pretty likely based upon what we know.
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The Chinese (Yi) tried with that MFT model that is now selling for $150, lens included. That was a major failure. Sharp, as a Chinese owned brand name now, is trying with that 8K camera that the Newsshooter tested a bit in Vegas last spring. That was also an MFT model. Which makes sense, as it's an open format. Z CAM's own MFT E2C just went on sale for $800 that Erik Naso seemed to really like a few months ago. (So, if you're counting, that's $200 per K, Jim Jannard)

Other than that, the Chinese don't seem to be terribly interested in bodies. The sole precedent is with Hasselblad, where the technical office is in Sweden while the manufacturing and the money comes from China. But all seem small operations, nowhere near the scale required for the photo-video market.

On the Japanese side, Canon, Nikon and Sony seem to be readying a bunch of new mainstream product, both in APS-C and Full Frame but, if they all come out at once, the pricing would have to be spot on.

PS. The US autotomobile luxury market - loosely defined by brands, although a fully loaded Ford Explorer is more expensive than many entry level Lexus, Infinity and even MB and BMW models - is about two million units annually. A Canikony exec must be thinking, "If someone can spend $50,000 on a set of wheels, he can spend $2,000 on a camera".

The other side of the argument is that the iPhone/Galaxy is already that camera.
 
Cell phone cameras really hold their own. Not even two years ago, I was phantasizing about getting a C200 for the 4K/60, but could not afford it. So I exchanged my iPhone 6 Plus with an iPhone 8 Plus, and now I can shoot "good enough" UHD/60 everywhere I am, as it fits in my pocket and I always have it with me.
 
I've actually been considering selling my Fuji X-100T stills camera and my current phone to buy the new iPhone that Apple will announce in September (supposedly with 3 camera lenses built in) for the main purpose of upping my BTS stills and video game and to potentially utilize on documentary projects where unexpected content is happening and no camera is around.

When it comes to cell phones, I'm actually trying to actively get away from using a smart phone (My Light Phone II should be coming in September), so I'm actually looking at this purchase almost solely for the camera and my filmmaking apps and probably wouldn't even buy a phone plan for it - basically use it as a camera/iPod.
 
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