C100: Canon layoffs

[DLD]

Even at full frame, the margins are getting slimmer and slimmer. A $1,300 RP, a $2,000 R. Forget the $3,500 they used to get for 5D. You'd think they'd try to get some traction in the low-medium video market but C700 was stillborn and the "latest" camera (C200) is two years old.

Maybe they can get some attention with C300 III/C400/C500 II.

 

[NorBro]

For photography people, it gets better and better every day.

For video, we have some nice options but we need much more for less money.

[For example, there are only a handful of 4K/60p and/or 10-bit cameras in the world for less than $5K.]

 

[DLD]

For photography people, it gets better and better every day.

For video, we have some nice options but we need much more for less money.

[For example, there are only a handful of 4K/60p and/or 10-bit cameras in the world for less than $5K.]

Considering Canon hasn't released a "new" APS-C camera in ages (neither has Nikon), a mid-niche video camera seems like the sole escape for Canon. Historically, the pro camera announcements were in August-September. This time, they can actually update their whole 100-200-300-500-700 lineup. That would be kind of impressive.

 

[puredrifting]

...This time, they can actually update their whole 100-200-300-500-700 lineup. That would be kind of impressive.

My intake of oxygen/nitrogen will not be stored in stasis

 

[DLD]

A trip down the memory lane.

The original C300 was announced in November, 2011. In April, 2012, it was joined by two 4K cameras - C500 and 1D C. In August of 2012, the final and the lowest priced member of the bunch, C100 was announced. That's four major announcements in about nine months.

Since then - C200 was announced in May, 2017. Before that, C300 MKII was revealed in April, 2015. This adds up to - well, not counting C700 in any form - no new cameras for two whole years and one over the last four.

Meanwhile, Apple has released eight new iPhone models since 2016 - from 7 to X S.

PS. Canon did lower prices on C300 MKII and C100 MKII over their run.

 

[puredrifting]

A trip down the memory lane.

The original C300 was announced in November, 2011. In April, 2012, it was joined by two 4K cameras - C500 and 1D C. In August of 2012, the final and the lowest priced member of the bunch, C100 was announced. That's four major announcements in about nine months.

Since then - C200 was announced in May, 2017. Before that, C300 MKII was revealed in April, 2015. This adds up to - well, not counting C700 in any form - no new cameras for two whole years and one over the last four.

Meanwhile, Apple has released eight new iPhone models since 2016 - from 7 to X S.

PS. Canon did lower prices on C300 MKII and C100 MKII over their run.

This tells us that the our market segment, as a whole is either at stasis or shrinking. I wouldn't count on many new pro level cameras from anyone over the next few years.

 

[Paul F]

VP of Imaging - "Ideas anyone?". Product Manager - "What about ... ... waffle irons?". Product Manager #2 - "Medium format". Product manager #3 "Let's go back to film".

 

[Run&Gun]

This tells us that the our market segment, as a whole is either at stasis or shrinking. I wouldn't count on many new pro level cameras from anyone over the next few years.

Good. Keeps my current fleet “more current”. I haven’t bought a camera since my F55 in 2015.

 

[DLD]

This tells us that the our market segment, as a whole is either at stasis or shrinking. I wouldn't count on many new pro level cameras from anyone over the next few years.

IMO, this is a calm before the apocalypse. The market for the $5,000-$15,000 cameras isn't shrinking. It is becoming the market.

VP of Imaging - "Ideas anyone?". Product Manager - "What about ... ... waffle irons?". Product Manager #2 - "Medium format". Product manager #3 "Let's go back to film".

Medium Format waffle irons. Because the Micro Four Thirds waffle irons are too small to wrap around a Vista Vision sausage.

 

[puredrifting]

IMO, this is a calm before the apocalypse. The market for the $5,000-$15,000 cameras isn't shrinking. It is becoming the market.

Medium Format waffle irons. Because the Micro Four Thirds waffle irons are too small to wrap around a Vista Vision sausage.

You really think we're going to see a lot of new pro cameras coming up? I don't have a good read from all of the manfacturers as I have only met with Panasonic and Canon over the past year,
but based upon what their marketing people tell me, things are slowing down and we won't see much new that isn't mirrorless in the near future.

I can't see Canon shutting down facilities and laying off large amounts of staff and then coming out with a lot of new product, the market demand doesn't seem to be there. What was the most talked about "kind of pro" camera of the past year probably, The BMD PCC4K, a plastic
$1,200.00 camera that actually does a lot for it's price. I think in the lower end, a lot of those mid-range users are going for cheap mirrorless rather than waiting for the FS7 MKIII, C300 MKIII, they are just using what they have (C300 MKII, FS7, UMP, FS5) and possibly dabbling in lower end mirrorless,
I know that exactly what I did. In the higher end users, I don't see a lot of change and activity, it's pretty much Monstro, Venice and Arri and I barely consider the Arri LFs to be new cameras, they are just upgraded sensor cameras for Netflix.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just wondering if you know a lot that I don't about a potential Tsunami of new mid-range cameras hitting when the overall market for pro cameras is clearly shrinking? It seems that we are the point where few average pros need a new camera or their needs and
wants aren't being served by current products, what do you think?

 

[Paul F]

... I can't see Canon shutting down facilities and laying off large amounts of staff and then coming out with a lot of new product, the market demand doesn't seem to be there. ...

I'll say so. The market is 56% of what it was two years ago. Such a precipitous drop in revenue makes internal operations chaotic. It's all management can do to keep up with the losses and reorganize year by year as the market keeps tanking. Constant layoffs and reorganizations lowers morale, defocuses the group. Programs are cut. Research is curtailed. Manufacturing costs go up as volumes go down. It's hard to think clearly in that environment. It must be a major kerfuffle at the camera divisions.

The desperation of the situation often leads to really stupid marketing ideas in hopes of finding new revenue. Waffle iron anyone?

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/dw-201905_e.pdfView attachment dw-201905_e.pdf

 

[DLD]

You really think we're going to see a lot of new pro cameras coming up? ...

In the lower-medium niche pro market Canon has to replace everything but C200. In other words, they have to sell something. Where Paul is probably right - and the particulars aren't known to the outsiders - is that there's always reshuffling in the corporate structure when there's such a decline in business. Product managers, VP's, engineering teams will often be replaced or shuffled to and fro, many things will be changed, others canceled.

A Canon executive opined earlier this year that the photo-video market will shrink by 50% and then stabilize. But perhaps he misunderestimated those 64 MPX Sony/Samsung smartphone sensors. And the fact that one can buy a pretty decent external lens for them. Cheaply.

(here's a pure speculation on my part. The entire photo-video market will be killed off when the smartphone manufacturers begin offering an external lens collection with electronic contacts. In other words, a smartphone will have its typical several built-in/fixed lenses for selfies and whatnot and one sensor with an electronic mount - a miniature mirrorless cam. Current models already can pixel-shift their 12 and 16 MPX sensors into 48 and 64 MPX. Add a small external prime, crop the final image to your liking and you're at a level where 110% of amateurs will be perfectly satisfied. As well as 75% of the pros for their personal use).

Side note #1 - visited Canon Rumors. They're in mass denial.

Side note #2 - Sony's numbers just came out too. They're down from last year but their 2018 was better than 2017 (believe it or not).

Side note #3 - I looked up the US auto sales for several brand names. Corvette had a 50% sales drop in 2013 before C7 came out in 2014 and are experiencing a near 50% drop in 2018, as C8 is just being announced. The photo-video sales ought to have a similar trajectory. At some point, one must bring out a new product if he wants to stay in the game.

Side note #4 - all those new Sony sensors will be featured in some cameras. We just don't know which. But they ain't making them to amuse themselves. (for video, that 15 MPX quad Bayer looks very interesting, kind of an RGB 4K)

Side note #5 - I could be way off on most of these ... except the seven stages of the photo-video grief.

 

[puredrifting]

In the lower-medium niche pro market Canon has to replace everything but C200. In other words, they have to sell something. Where Paul is probably right - and the particulars aren't known to the outsiders - is that there's always reshuffling in the corporate structure when there's such a decline in business. Product managers, VP's, engineering teams will often be replaced or shuffled to and fro, many things will be changed, others canceled.

A Canon executive opined earlier this year that the photo-video market will shrink by 50% and then stabilize. But perhaps he misunderestimated those 64 MPX Sony/Samsung smartphone sensors. And the fact that one can buy a pretty decent external lens for them. Cheaply.

(here's a pure speculation on my part. The entire photo-video market will be killed off when the smartphone manufacturers begin offering an external lens collection with electronic contacts. In other words, a smartphone will have its typical several built-in/fixed lenses for selfies and whatnot and one sensor with an electronic mount - a miniature mirrorless cam. Current models already can pixel-shift their 12 and 16 MPX sensors into 48 and 64 MPX. Add a small external prime, crop the final image to your liking and you're at a level where 110% of amateurs will be perfectly satisfied. As well as 75% of the pros for their personal use).

Side note #1 - visited Canon Rumors. They're in mass denial.

Side note #2 - Sony's numbers just came out too. They're down from last year but their 2018 was better than 2017 (believe it or not).

Side note #3 - I looked up the US auto sales for several brand names. Corvette had a 50% sales drop in 2013 before C7 came out in 2014 and are experiencing a near 50% drop in 2018, as C8 is just being announced. The photo-video sales ought to have a similar trajectory. At some point, one must bring out a new product if he wants to stay in the game.

Side note #4 - all those new Sony sensors will be featured in some cameras. We just don't know which. But they ain't making them to amuse themselves. (for video, that 15 MPX quad Bayer looks very interesting, kind of an RGB 4K)

Side note #5 - I could be way off on most of these ... except the seven stages of the photo-video grief.

Appreciate the research. Ater years of breakneck technological innovation, I am kind of liking "The Reckoning", at least from an equipment investment POV. Work, overall, seems a bit down this year, I had a pretty healthy 2018, but I am chugging away on content that I own and will license so overall, the downturn in overall production isn't hitting me too badly. It's nice to have what a few months ago was considered "outdated" technology by the breakneck change standards (C200 and XT-3) and know that the nothing in their price ranges has came out since that is really better, perhaps a little different, but both cameras should keep me going until I either tap out of the business or hopefully will stop shooting, produce and write more and hire DPs who can worrry about all of this stuff. I enjoy technology, using it, writing about it, reviewing it, but I don't like my income being constantly jeopardized by need to acquire the latest and greatest fluff that is meaningless but clients make me use/rent anyway. I'm very proud of two long time clients who, on our last shoots, requested that I shoot RAW on the C200 and F-Log on the Fuji, that's enouraging, they finally understand what each is and why we should be shooting them.

Interesting phone prediction, could come true, that will be interesting if it does. We all know phones and phone like devices will soon largely replace lower end video cameras, we just haven't know quite how and when. A year ago, when I acquired my iPhone 8 Plus, I shot a lot of projects with it as B and or C camera and I have to say, I don't see that on the video side yet at all. The very limited DR is the main limitation, not sure how much latitude the iPhone 8 Plus camera has but it feels like around eight stops perhaps? It may be because I have a 5K iMac screen that I look at stuff on but I am quite disappointed with stills too. Even with good lighting, they look grainy and chunky compared to even a P&S much less my 80D or XT-3 stills. Phones for video hold promise and they are useful for certain things but overall, they aren't quite there yet, at least for the things I shoot. Makes me wonder if I'm doing something wrong in Filmic Pro because the High Flying Bird material looked great. Of course, great director, gaffers and lighting too, that helps but that doesn't really affect the pixilized chunkiness I see, regardless of lighting.

 

[Paul F]

... (here's a pure speculation on my part. The entire photo-video market will be killed off when the smartphone manufacturers begin offering an external lens collection with electronic contacts. In other words, a smartphone will have its typical several built-in/fixed lenses for selfies and whatnot and one sensor with an electronic mount - a miniature mirrorless cam.

That's clever speculation. What's so fun about a juncture like this is that no one has a clue as to where things will go now that the wave has ended for both cameras and phones. They are both floundering to find the next big deal since nothing is obvious as the next step.

Like Drift, I can't see it taking over due to sensor size (dynamic range). It killed pocket cameras, it's taken a big dent out of DSLR/mirrorless, but like the Canon person said, the decline will eventually level off. Phone sales are down for the first time in 25 years. So anyone in the camera business that wanted to jump ship missed the boat when it comes to phones.

Here's a really fun animated graph showing the life and death of phone sales over the last 25 years. No one could have predicted anything on this animated chart. Lot's of contenders came and went. Scroll down to the animated bar graph. https://thenextweb.com/plugged/2019/03/29/24-years-global-phone-sales-graph-visualization/

 

[DLD]

Appreciate the research. Ater years of breakneck technological innovation, I am kind of liking "The Reckoning", at least from an equipment investment POV...

IMO, we're still at the "breakneck speed" (with high octane and spinning wheels). It's just that its heavily advancing on the smartphone level and slightly being throttled in the consumer/enthusiast/pro stills/video world.

Look at the newly announced Sony RX100 MKVII. It has an "old" 1" sensor with 20 MPX. This is the same company that sells a 48 MPX 1/2" sensor to Xiaomi and Huawei. It could have easily upped the resolution on MKVII too but it wants to protect its APS-C (A6300/6400/6700) line, which has "only" a 24 MPX sensor. The problem for Sony as a camera manufacturer is that it's working against itself as a sensor manufacturer. It may not be increasing the resolution on RX100 right now but Xiaomi and Huawei are definitely doing it with their own devices. And it's encroaching well into the APS-C market. And this summer is the first time when a smartphone exceeds that of the ILC's. And that coincides with the precipitous slide in the camera manufacturer profits and total sales.

As to the quality, it's obviously not on the full frame or pro levels. S1R can produce 187 MPX and A7RIV 240 MPX resolution, with a superior dynamic range. But, for Facebook and Instagram, built-in modules are more than enough.

PS. A friend has an iPhone but is looking for a palm size ILC for trips. I recommended A6400 with a 16-50 pancake zoom. It doesn't require either an activation or a two year contract and one can get a higher quality zoom for it at a later date. But I also recommended him auditioning the very affordable external lenses like Moment.

That's clever speculation. What's so fun about a juncture like this is that no one has a clue as to where things will go now that the wave has ended for both cameras and phones. They are both floundering to find the next big deal since nothing is obvious as the next step.

Like Drift, I can't see it taking over due to sensor size (dynamic range). It killed pocket cameras, it's taken a big dent out of DSLR/mirrorless, but like the Canon person said, the decline will eventually level off.

Phone sales are down for the first time in 25 years. So anyone in the camera business that wanted to jump ship missed the boat when it comes to phones...

I agree that no one knows what will happen even within 3-5 years. I actually remember telling a friend in early 00's, "What the big deal about phone cameras? Some are predicting it's going to be huge but photography in and of itself isn't a very popular hobby. I don't think camera phones are going anywhere".

Yup. I did say that. I was slightly off. Perhaps I should have been buying Apple stock at that moment. A 2002 100$ investment was worth over $11,000 in April, 2019. And I was in the mobile phone business a few years prior to that.

Side note - Oppo and One+ have popup cameras now. Oppo also has that internal periscope 5X zoom. Someone somewhere will figure out how to get a similar zoom without violating Oppo's patents. It's not like a periscope is a new invention anyway.

 

[TheDingo]

Here's a pure speculation on my part. The entire photo-video market will be killed off when the smartphone manufacturers begin offering an external lens collection with electronic contacts.

This probably will never happen because the vast majority of smartphone owners are consumers that do not want to have to attach anything to their phones. Some of my friends refuse to buy a case for their $1K phones because they don't want to make the phone any bigger or have to carry anything else other than the phone. ( I'm one of those nerds that always buys a solid case with every new phone I buy, and I've dropped my phones several times with no damage to date. )

 

[puredrifting]

But I also recommended him auditioning the very affordable external lenses like Moment.

I have the Moment Walnut Case, strap and 18mm W/A lens, I quite like it. As phones go, the combo isn't bad. It is susceptible to flaring when shooting in bright sun but it's pretty sharp to the edges and is really built well. Nice on gimbal. I also have the Moment filter adapter for it that let's you mount larger size (I use 67mm) ND filters to get that iPhone shutter speed down.
I actually used my phone recently in a dance club when we were going out with one of our subjects socially for a night on the town, not intending to shoot, so we left the big boy cameras at our AirBnB. Our subject and her friends unexpectedly ducked into a dance club to party, then went to a pub and played some drunk Jenga (highy entertaining if you've never played, all hand written ridiculous things you have to do when you pull a piece out). I took out my iPhone 8 Plus and recorded the proceedings and these shots will make it into our docu series. So phones have their place in professional production. Not the highest quality footage but for our needs, I was really glad I had it with me.

 

[DLD]

This probably will never happen because the vast majority of smartphone owners are consumers that do not want to have to attach anything to their phones...

The other and IMO stronger argument against it is the previously mentioned by me popup and periscope cameras. Oppo's has a 5x optical zoom built in - their popup is for selfies - and, should someone improve on their implementation, it'll cover pretty much all basic needs. And, with a 48-64 MPX resolution, one can digitally enlarge or crop at will.

The argument for it is that the clip-on mountings are fairly common these days already and an ILC OEM version would be fairly simple to design. The cost of the smartphone camera module is around $20-$25 and one could make a fairly decent prime for $30-$50. In fact, some sets of 2-3 lenses are available on Amazon for under $50 and that gets you a Fish Eye, a Macro and a Telephoto. And one doesn't have to keep them on at all times either.

And here's a biggest pro argument. A proprietary mounting would favor a customer sticking with the same brand. That alone should motivate all these companies to make the move.

 

[TheDingo]

And here's a biggest pro argument. A proprietary mounting would favor a customer sticking with the same brand. That alone should motivate all these companies to make the move.

If it doesn't bring in a bigger profit margin then most companies will pass on this. When you've got something like 99.9999 percent of the smartphone customer base who don't give a sh*t about accessories or external lenses, then it's going to be a dead duck.

The Huawei p30 pro internal periscope lens is a neat trick, but I don't imagine many mom and pop customers willing to pay much more for this feature.

Smartphones have killed off the compact camera market, but I think they have got a really long way to go before they can compete with the $3 - 5K prosumer market. ( you have to reach a point where nobody can tell if the image was produced with a smartphone or with a $5K pro camera )

 

[DLD]

I couldn't find the actual DXO survey (the contained link was dead) but the summary is quite telling.

https://www.thephoblographer.com/2017/09/13/smartphone-users-want-better-lens-improved-zoom/

It seems that a large percentage of the smartphone users would like more zzzzzzzzoom.