Why not? Consider that it will be a niche they'd have all to themselves. All the other cams with comparable specs are well over $5K. If Panasonic seize the initiative, they can monopolize the space and win the loyalty of tons of filmmakers which would pay off for years and years. One can hope that they don't only run on what the pencil-behind-the-ear accountant sees, but by visionaries who can think long term, taking temporarily lower profits for the sake of domination down the road. Remember, the GH4 is older technology and was priced at $1700 - newer tech and manufacturing processes should bring that much more to the table for $1700 in 2015. Think FS7, but better, for $1700. It is inevitable one day anyway (just look at how much more cam you get today compared to f.ex. 5 years ago for the same amount of money - and Moore's Law says the process will accelerate). All we need from Panasonic is vision and guts.
AF100-Successor in 2015!!!!
- Thread starter tobbihe
- Start date
Why not? Consider that it will be a niche they'd have all to themselves. All the other cams with comparable specs are well over $5K. If Panasonic seize the initiative, they can monopolize the space and win the loyalty of tons of filmmakers which would pay off for years and years. One can hope that they don't only run on what the pencil-behind-the-ear accountant sees, but by visionaries who can think long term, taking temporarily lower profits for the sake of domination down the road. Remember, the GH4 is older technology and was priced at $1700 - newer tech and manufacturing processes should bring that much more to the table for $1700 in 2015. Think FS7, but better, for $1700. It is inevitable one day anyway (just look at how much more cam you get today compared to f.ex. 5 years ago for the same amount of money - and Moore's Law says the process will accelerate). All we need from Panasonic is vision and guts.
Mike Harvey
Veteran
Moore's law is that over the course of computing hardware history, the number of transistors on a circuit doubles every two years. That is not the same as producing a much more advanced imaging sensor. And Moore's Law is predicted to slow to doubling every three years in this decade. And Moore's Second Law is that R&D costs will continue to grow at about the same rate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
And that magnesium body, and the materials that make up the circuit boards, and the wiring for the XLR inputs aren't going to get any cheaper to produce. What you're proposing simply doesn't make any financial sense.
Yes, tons of filmmakers would buy a ton of these cameras (and if each camera were sold at a loss, that's a heck of a huge loss). But would they still be loyal when Panasonic sells the AF300 for $5,000? Or should they sell that for a loss too? And where will they make their money back? Because there is no way they'll ever sell enough lenses to justify using the AF200 as a loss leader.
And why does Panasonic really need to care so much about low budget filmmakers? If a filmmaker can't afford a $5,000 camera, why does it make any sort of sense to give them something other than a GH4 type camera? Especially when they can make plenty of money selling that $5,000 camera for $5,000 to corporate clients, production houses, broadcast stations, and other folks who aren't really going to bat an eye at it's $5,000 price tag? If a customer isn't ever going to make you any money, why is their loyalty so important?
At some point, you do need to listen to the pencil-behind-the-ear accountant.
If you look at the product lines from major manufacturers, it gets pretty close to price doubling per each step. In other words, C100 x 2 = C300. C300 x 2 = C500. Fs-700 x 2 = F5. F5 x 2 = F55.
If this chain holds, AF-200 will run ~ $6K ((GH4+ YAGH) x 2), depending on a feature set.
If this chain holds, AF-200 will run ~ $6K ((GH4+ YAGH) x 2), depending on a feature set.
Spartacus
Veteran
Does anyone seriously think, Panasonic is going to sell mid-level pro-cam for 1700$?
Even Blackmagic - the only true rebel-brand out there - has entered a higher price segment with the URSA.
Why would a dinosaur company like Panasonic give sth away?
The true bold move would be offering what RED once promised and so far none delivered: A large sensor camera with a fixed lens.
So many people want the large sensor look, but don´t need or want to change lenses or have the ability to shoot with cine glass.
Most C100/C300 use the 24-105 like a fixed lens anyways...
So form factor of a HVX/HPX (not AF100)+ fixed ENG-like high quality manual and servo lens + GH4 sensor + CanonWDR/C-log-like picture profiles.
THIS at FS7 price would sell like hot cake.
Well, just my 2c as always:cheesy:
Even Blackmagic - the only true rebel-brand out there - has entered a higher price segment with the URSA.
Why would a dinosaur company like Panasonic give sth away?
The true bold move would be offering what RED once promised and so far none delivered: A large sensor camera with a fixed lens.
So many people want the large sensor look, but don´t need or want to change lenses or have the ability to shoot with cine glass.
Most C100/C300 use the 24-105 like a fixed lens anyways...
So form factor of a HVX/HPX (not AF100)+ fixed ENG-like high quality manual and servo lens + GH4 sensor + CanonWDR/C-log-like picture profiles.
THIS at FS7 price would sell like hot cake.
Well, just my 2c as always:cheesy:
I think people underestimate how profound manufacturing efficiencies can get. I'll give you just one small example. Tascam (the Japanese company) has been making sound equipment for decades. In the past couple of years they made the DR-60D recorder, and it came out with the amazingly low price of $350. Everyone was shocked at how you got 2 XLR inputs and generally great quality and feature set for a price so low. Well, after about a year, they've now come out with the next edition of the DR-60Dmkii - and it's improved, and the price is now $199. This was so astonishing that on one of the audio sites run by sound people, folks asked the Tascam rep who posts there, how did you guys do it... his answer - manufacturing efficiencies allowed them to make better quality at a lower price. Note, that's a drop of 42% in price on a product that is IMPROVED. In one year. And they're coming out with a higher version the DR-70D which has 4 XLR inputs and even more features (including mics), and the price is... $299.
Folks, you got to understand how manufacturing works. If you set your mind to it - your whole engineering team focus, yes, you can drop the price from the $5000 or so that the AF100 came out years and years and years ago, to $1700, and I'm being generous. Tascam did a 42% drop in just one year on a product they IMPROVED. It can be done. AF100 came out ages ago. There is no excuse why you can't do a vastly superior camera AF200 at a $1700 price point. You just have to have the vision and the guts.
Folks, you got to understand how manufacturing works. If you set your mind to it - your whole engineering team focus, yes, you can drop the price from the $5000 or so that the AF100 came out years and years and years ago, to $1700, and I'm being generous. Tascam did a 42% drop in just one year on a product they IMPROVED. It can be done. AF100 came out ages ago. There is no excuse why you can't do a vastly superior camera AF200 at a $1700 price point. You just have to have the vision and the guts.
Well, the LX100 is part-way there... add some framerates, better codec, I/O's, and longer lens in a different body (but not so big as HVX), and Bob's your Uncle.
And don't forget "for $1700 or less".
slidemaster
Well-known member
I really dont see that $1700 being realistic at all. Been around manufacturing all my life and that just not going to happen.
But that's not the point.
Obviously, Panasonic can make a $1,700 camera. The question is - what image quality and feature set this camera will have?
For $1,700, it will be marginally better than GH4. For $5,000-$6,000, it will be nearing FS-7/C-300 MK II. The advances in technology will mean that it's as good as a $30K camera of two years ago (something like C-500/F5 ... or, in fact, superior to them in some respects with the internal 4K recording) but there's still enough of a product cycle left in 4K image acquisition to have a $5K model out there.
Now, within two more years, $5,000 may mean a 6/8K camera that rivals Red Epic Dragon and Sony F-65 on specs - forget Alexa's puny 3K sensor - but then the high end pro market will be something else entirely as well. What is true is that the cost of acquiring image competitive with these high end, feature film quality cams is dropping tremendously each year and, soon enough, a $1,700 unit from a major manufacturer will be sufficient for the next "Interstellar" type romp.
But that moment is not here yet.
combatentropy
Veteran
OldCorpse isn't too far off.
The Canon XA10, for example, is $1,500
It's mainly missing a large sensor. A 4/3 sensor from CMOSIS, the CMV8000, is $550, according to Apertus.
Are the buyers of the GH4 buying it because they want an SLR body style or because it's so much less money? Would not most of them buy a camera like this instead if it were in the same price range?
I believe Panasonic could make the camera for $1,500 to $2,000 and still make a profit. It wouldn't be as much profit per camera as selling it for $5,000, of course, but I believe that they would sell so many more that they would make at least as much profit total.
The Canon XA10, for example, is $1,500
It's mainly missing a large sensor. A 4/3 sensor from CMOSIS, the CMV8000, is $550, according to Apertus.
Are the buyers of the GH4 buying it because they want an SLR body style or because it's so much less money? Would not most of them buy a camera like this instead if it were in the same price range?
I believe Panasonic could make the camera for $1,500 to $2,000 and still make a profit. It wouldn't be as much profit per camera as selling it for $5,000, of course, but I believe that they would sell so many more that they would make at least as much profit total.
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Combatentropy is exactly right. And DLD has a point too, although I think he's a bit pessimistic - basically he thinks the $1700 is still off in the future, and I think it's here capability-wise... whether Panasonic will go for it of course is a completely different matter. Look, there's no magic involved here. It's the oldest marketing principle in the world - more products sold at lower prices, or fewer products at higher prices? So far, Panasonic has gone the route of 'fewer products, higher price (margin)' - and that's understandable, because they see it as a pro market which is limited by definition. Except! Except, the new revolution is that the "pro" is no longer what it used to be - there are thousands and thousands of indies out there who would love to buy for the right price. Manufacturers tried to address that market by something called the "prosumer" segment of the market, but my point is that they are underestimating the size of that market. The tip of the market that's willing to pay $80K-$300K for a camera is tiny these days. The vast majority of production is taking place at lower levels but much bigger volume. Panasonic - or whoever - would be smart to recognize that, and move a lot more capability to address that market, and the price point of $1700 would bring in tremendous volume. They'd make tons of money, and more importantly lock these customers into their ecosystem and workflow, which is far more valuable down the road, and a much harder thing to pull off these days... people increasingly have less and less loyalty to a brand and switch at a drop of a hat - that makes it hard to plan a product cycle, and frankly I think Panasonic mishandled that HORRIBLY with the AF100 - they totally dropped that loyal clientele they developed around the AF100. Now they have a second chance. The AF200 should come out at $1700 and blow everyone else out of the water, and then hang onto that clientele. People talk about Black Magic, but BM are not 1% the capability that a dedicated OEM like Panasonic has... believe me, if they wanted Panasonic could deliver a smashing camera for $1700 that would shock everybody. All it takes is vision and a bit of guts - frankly, I don't think they have a choice - they must take radical measures or they won't survive against Sony and Canon. Do it, Panasonic - DO IT!!! $1700 and not a penny more!!!
Mike Harvey
Veteran
It's not going to happen.
Maybe a very stripped down version, like a X1000 with fewer features, an m4/3 mount and a GH4 sensor... recording to the same codecs that the GH4 and X1000 use... selling for ~$2,500 could be profitable. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about what is effectively a PX270 back end with something similar to the Varicam 35's sensor. Sorry, but the second you start adding SDI to ANYTHING, you're going to see a significant price increase. Look at the AC130 and AC160. There was very little difference between the two other than SDI, but there was a huge price difference. Look at Canon's XF series... you have near identical cameras, but the ones with SDI have MSRP's of $1,000, $500, and $1,200 more than the non-SDI versions. As I pointed out, the YAAAAAGGGGHHHH!!!!!! is nothing more than a glorified HDMI-SDI converter with XLR, and it's nearly as much as the GH4 it's designed for. And those P2 interfaces cost money. And Panasonic has to have about a gazillion dollars invested into R&D for that Varicam sensor. While it makes sense to have a version of it in this camera to help make back R&D money and make them cheaper to produce (like Canon's C series), it still cost them a gazillion dollars to develop a brand new 4k S35 sensor from scratch, and they haven't made any of it back yet. It's not like Tascam using old tech to produce a cheap recorder. How much R&D did Tascam put into that recorder? Probably not much. Panasonic is in the hole for a lot of R&D money developing this new sensor tech. And if they don't base an AF200's sensor on the Varicam's, they have to develop another sensor from scratch. Plus, how much R&D did Tascam put into the recording format? Something tells me that Panasonic hasn't yet made back their money on developing these new flavors of AVC-Ultra.
I'm sorry, but a PX270-ish camera with a Varicam-ish sensor for $1,700 isn't going to happen. It's just not. It. Won't. Happen. Sorry guys, but to think otherwise is wishful thinking.
Maybe a very stripped down version, like a X1000 with fewer features, an m4/3 mount and a GH4 sensor... recording to the same codecs that the GH4 and X1000 use... selling for ~$2,500 could be profitable. But that's not what we're talking about. We're talking about what is effectively a PX270 back end with something similar to the Varicam 35's sensor. Sorry, but the second you start adding SDI to ANYTHING, you're going to see a significant price increase. Look at the AC130 and AC160. There was very little difference between the two other than SDI, but there was a huge price difference. Look at Canon's XF series... you have near identical cameras, but the ones with SDI have MSRP's of $1,000, $500, and $1,200 more than the non-SDI versions. As I pointed out, the YAAAAAGGGGHHHH!!!!!! is nothing more than a glorified HDMI-SDI converter with XLR, and it's nearly as much as the GH4 it's designed for. And those P2 interfaces cost money. And Panasonic has to have about a gazillion dollars invested into R&D for that Varicam sensor. While it makes sense to have a version of it in this camera to help make back R&D money and make them cheaper to produce (like Canon's C series), it still cost them a gazillion dollars to develop a brand new 4k S35 sensor from scratch, and they haven't made any of it back yet. It's not like Tascam using old tech to produce a cheap recorder. How much R&D did Tascam put into that recorder? Probably not much. Panasonic is in the hole for a lot of R&D money developing this new sensor tech. And if they don't base an AF200's sensor on the Varicam's, they have to develop another sensor from scratch. Plus, how much R&D did Tascam put into the recording format? Something tells me that Panasonic hasn't yet made back their money on developing these new flavors of AVC-Ultra.
I'm sorry, but a PX270-ish camera with a Varicam-ish sensor for $1,700 isn't going to happen. It's just not. It. Won't. Happen. Sorry guys, but to think otherwise is wishful thinking.
Well, it's like beating a dead horse. Not criticizing anyone here, just a general observation on how these kinds of threads go. People throw out price points which are more like their general "feelings" based on absolutely nothing but emotion. You can't price anything out of thin air. There is a whole nitty gritty of manufacturing along the whole chain starting with sourcing the simplest components; some it makes sense to manufacture yourself, others you buy because someone else has done the R&D and can sell them cheaper than you can make; you don't have to own the whole stack from raw materials on. Same for R&D - you don't re-invent the wheel, you work with off the shelf components and so on. I mean, unless you know a ton more details than anyone on this board is likely to (even me), your guesses as to what it costs the OEM are just... well, let's be polite and leave it at "guesses". I always look very carefully at those breakdowns that are done by iFixit and other places, when f.ex. some piece of hardware comes out from Apple or whoever. And even they make huge assumptions, which don't square with Apples true costs, because they are not privy to the details of contracts between third party manufacturers , suppliers and assembly. It's costs up and down the whole process from the idea until it reaches the hands of the consumer, it all adds up, even things like marketing and transportation. So on what grounds are we projecting that "ooh, any time there is SDI price rockets!" - well, SDI is only partially technology, there is a marketing component, where you charge prices for market segmentation reasons that have nothing to do with true cost. Do you think it really costs Apple as much for memory as reflected in their 16GB, 32GB, 64GB prices for the same exact product whose only differences are amount of memory? No, of course not. They're making money on that, it has almost nothing to do with the underlying price of the memory. Same with every other OEM, including camera makers - some features they call "pro" and charge based on that word and their perception of what that market segment will bear. My point throughout was that Panasonic should re-evaluate how they segment the market. Many of those features - like SDI - should no longer be called arbitrarily "pro", because the market segment is different from what they just go along with, simply out of inertia. They need to re-evaluate. The market really has changed since the DSLR revolution and there are opportunities, which you must cease... or forego at your peril. You can be a dinosaur, or you can seize the opportunity and be extremely aggressive about your conception of whom you are selling to and the size of the market. I'm sorry, but these guys are so out of touch it's embarrassing. The tech has existed for a long time, and it's just ridiculous that a ton of it has never made it from the consumer side to the pro, because of how these dinosaurs conceive of the market... just think of what a complete non-camera company like Apple has done to their iPhone cams both in hardware and software; why has it taken so long to incorporate wireless data streaming into cameras? Why have these guys done so little with tech that's just next room to them? It's ridiculous. It's because they have the idea that there is this slim tiny sliver of a market called "pro" and it doesn't pay to do anything other than what's always been done in the past, basically incremental improvements on the same horse and buggy when cars and airplanes have been around for decades. And they're wrong. People are ready and the market could be so very much bigger. But then again, you'd need to have something called "vision" and guts. But anyhow, we can keep speculating, but frankly we have too little information. I'll just put it out there - it is completely totally and unquestionably possible to come out with a stunning $1700 video camera that would knock the socks off everyone here - the only issue is: will Panasonic be the company to do it.
combatentropy
Veteran
Well, like OldCorpse said, the price increase to the consumer is many times the cost increase to the maker. Anyway, why would I want SDI if the camera already records something like 10-bit 4:2:2, which is part of my feature list:
XA-10ish size
2 XLR inputs
10-bit 4:2:2 HD to SDXC cards
1080p LCD screen (or at least 540p)
largish sensor (4/3, S35, 135, I'm not too picky)
global shutter
at least 12 stops of dynamic range
1-60 fps (at least, please)
$5,000 or less (preferably much much less)
You can add whatever features you want, but not if it jacks with any of these specs. For example, if you jack it up to 4K, you might compromise global shutter or 12 stops or the price or the fact that it can put it on SDXC cards. You can add all manner of extra outputs, like SDI, but not if it turns it into a large hairy beast.
Like OldCorpse said, I think it can be done for maybe $2,000, but I don't think Panasonic would offer it for that, because in the current market they can get away with charging more for all of that. They'll sell fewer camcorders, and I think probably make less money in the long run, but I'm sure that they will try to price where they think it will sell the most units at the highest margin. And that's what every company basically does, I just kind of disagree with them about where that sweet spot might be.
alaskacameradude
Veteran
I find it interesting that you start by noting (correctly) that people are just 'throwing out price points' and
realistically they are just guesses....and go on to say you can't just 'make price points up out of thin air.'
I totally agree with that part. But then you end with.....well it appears to me that you end by absolutely
'throwing a price point' out and saying that it is 'totally and unquestionably possible' to come out with a
$1700 camera?? The G4? Or are you talking about something else? Because as soon as you start adding
features to the G4, I'm thinking you start adding price as well. And I'm not sure how your opinion on
price point that you are throwing out there at the end, is so much more valid than the opinions of those who say
it will cost more. As a general rule, I agree that more and more high end tech will start to trickle
down into cameras that cost less and less. But that takes time, and I don't think we are to a $1700 price point
quite yet. We are getting there though......the Sony FS100 is $2500 and that is a pretty nice camera for the
price. No internal ND's though, which was my biggest complaint when I owned it. Anyways, it doesn't really
matter what you or I or anyone else thinks. They will either make one or they won't. If you don't like
the price on the new cameras they make, don't buy it. Judging by the 'feeding frenzy' over the Sony FS7
I don't see manufacturers rushing to cut prices to $1700 though. But that's just an opinion that could
well be wrong.
I think we're all right (just like the kids).
Panasonic will probably introduce an XA-10 tier 4K camera at the CES'15 that will compete against Sony AX-100 in the sub- $2,000 category.
Three months after that, they will show a prototype of a $4,000-$6,000 camera (kind of a double-the-price idea again) at the NAB'15. This will be the AF-100 replacement in terms of filling that particular niche. This camera will be enabled with the FS-7 level accoutrements.
Panasonic could conceivably also introduce a $10,000-$15,000 camera as well. Chances are that the AF-200 will have an MFT sensor that will work with Panasonic MFT lenses. IMO, the $10,000-$25,000 category will demand a Full-Frame sensor soon while the high end pro market will settle on an MDF size for the time being.
But these are just guesstimates.
Panasonic will probably introduce an XA-10 tier 4K camera at the CES'15 that will compete against Sony AX-100 in the sub- $2,000 category.
Three months after that, they will show a prototype of a $4,000-$6,000 camera (kind of a double-the-price idea again) at the NAB'15. This will be the AF-100 replacement in terms of filling that particular niche. This camera will be enabled with the FS-7 level accoutrements.
Panasonic could conceivably also introduce a $10,000-$15,000 camera as well. Chances are that the AF-200 will have an MFT sensor that will work with Panasonic MFT lenses. IMO, the $10,000-$25,000 category will demand a Full-Frame sensor soon while the high end pro market will settle on an MDF size for the time being.
But these are just guesstimates.
Mike Harvey
Veteran
Boom. This is another large reason why a $1,700 AF200 won't happen. People are willing to pay $5,000 - $7,000 for it. If you could sell 5 units for $1,700 and make little money or take a loss, or 2 for $5,000, what makes more sense? Generally, the $5,000 unit.
As far as why people want SDI when it's got 10bit 4:2:2 internally... it's the same reason why every other P2 camera has an SDI output. Enough people want it. You may not need an external recorder, but external monitors are nice, and I would much prefer SDI to HDMI for it.
It seems entirely reasonable that Panasonic could come out with what is effectively an X1000 with a m4/3 mount and a GH4 sensor for ~$2,500. But you're not going to get internal 10bit 4:2:2, P2, or an S35 sensor. And that seems to be what most people are clamoring for... a PX270 body with a S35 sensor and m4/3 mount. That is never going to happen for less than $4,500 upon first release... and realistically more like $5,000 out of the gate.
And I really do have to question the idea of making it for $1,700 just to make a bold move to win over low budget filmmakers. Let's say, just for the sake of argument, they can pull off said camera and make a little money selling a PX270 back end with 10bit 4:2:2 internal and an S35 sensor for $1,700. Suddenly you're going to have a lot of PX270 owners going "what the heck? Why is the AF200 $1,700, but the PX270 three times that, when they're practically the same camera internally?" And that brand new X1000 they're coming out with for $3,500? How many people are going to go "Wait, why is it this much, when the AF200, with it's vastly superior specs, is half the price?" And they're GH line? Who the heck is going to buy that when the AF200 costs just as much? Not photographers, because there are far cheaper alternatives for stills like the G6 that still take decent video. And could they sell the AF300 or AF400 for more than that price point without losing all the loyalty you want them to win now that they've set a precedent? And if they didn't, could they sell the PX280 or X2000 for their current price points without those folks feeling like they're getting ripped off?
A $1,700 AF200 might seem great short term to folks on a budget, but long term it's a losing strategy for Panasonic.
combatentropy
Veteran
Why would you want an external monitor if the flip-out one is finally decent? Maybe 4" diagonally or so. 1920 x 1080 resolution.
As a consumer, it's my job to say what I want and for how much. It's not my job to untangle the mess that manufacturers have gotten themselves in by handicapping and tiering.
The price may or may not be possible. I could be totally immature and say "and I want all that for 5 cents." But I try to be reasonable, based on what's out there.
But depending on what examples you use, you could wind up with wildly different estimates. Usually I start with something that's less than what I want and work up, rather than something more than what I want and work down. By that I mean, I'll say something like, "this is more or less an XA10 or PX270 without a built-in lens, the same sensor as in many SLRs, and finally a decent screen like is on most smartphones." By that math, it sounds like it should be $5,000 or less. But if I were to say, "this is just like an F55, only everything miniaturized," it sounds like it should be $100,000.
The reason why different products vary so wildly in price seems to have less to do with raw costs and more to do with economies of scale, what the market will bear, and artificial tiering. If as many people wanted an F55 as a GH4, I guarantee the F55 would be a lot closer in price. That's economies of scale. But believe it or not, there are people who would rather have the GH4 even if the F55 were free. They're called "tourists," and there are a lot more of them than there are of us. So a big shoulder rig like the F55 will always be ten times as much even though it's maybe just two or three times the camera. Furthermore, since Panasonic knows that the only people interested in something like the Varicam are rental houses, large companies, and well-heeled freelancers, it might charge them more. But they sell so few of them, they're still not getting rich off these cameras, no matter how much they charge.
I'm just guessing on a lot of the reasons. Prices are a complex interrelated system, like the weather, and just as hard to predict. But it's not my job. It's my job to make a reasonable guess. And as the buyer, I'm going to guess conservatively --- just like if you were selling a car that's worth $5,000, I might start off the negotiation by saying "$4,000," if for no other reason than because I know you'll counter it with "$6,000."
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pulpfiction007
Veteran
Agreed totally. They have a small sensor prosumer cam that sells for $2,000...and even that is AVCHD. A large sensor plus all the recording options that people want would certainly add to that figure. No way they will do the general camera idea being discussed here for $1700. If they got the camera right with most of the features we've all been talking about, it would be a hit at $5,000.