Rumor: Canon 4k super35 camera

OK - Nov 3 excitement has grippedeth. Excuse the excitement of this post :)

I said Canon wouldn't deliver a true competitor (feature-wise and price-wise) to the AF100/FS100 before January 1st, 2012. Some folks seem to think that they will, I still say they won't. And I don't think a $12,000 body counts as a competitor.

Heyy... just want to make sure my $20 isn't in jeopardy (need ze lunch money) - Barry, I thought the bet was more about Canon making a 2/3" hairdryer because they're always years behind the competition and not giving people what they want? Also, what's up with Jan 1, 2012? Don't remember that date. I think that they will have widely shipping stuff by next NAB though.

Though yes... I think all of the major manufacturers are years behind and never giving people quite what they want :) I want my Scarlet FF35 that RED once said was coming in 2009 for $12,000, I want an AF100 that actually resolves the 1080p worth of detail that it claims on the brochure, I want an F3 without a near-$4000 fee to unlock features, I want an Alexa that actually can match film skintones... :) Sorry, going waaaay OT.

OK found ze post:

So now it's time to get off the fence and take a stand. Bets on the table. I predict that both Canon and Red will introduce 2/3"-sensor 4K products on Nov. 3rd (yes, I'm predicting Red has abandoned 3K entirely and has gone to 4K for the Scarlet.) Red will have raw recording, interchangeable lenses, and 120fps; Canon will have... the hair dryer, 4K, at $8995, probably to MPEG-2. Not sure if the Canon will have interchangeable lenses or not... for their lens business it makes sense, but they don't have many 4K-rated lenses at 2/3" size (if any) so maybe it'll be a fixed-lens product. The hair dryer prototype definitely wasn't interchangeable. So, yeah, that sounds about right -- a fixed-lens, 2/3", 4K-to-MPEG2 Canon, going up against a fixed- or interchangeable-lens Scarlet, 4K to raw, with VFR up to 120fps, both of them (configured in a shooting package) clocking in at about $8995...

And for the record, I dredged up my old bet:


With respect, Sir, I must disagree again. My bets are that Canon will release:
- at least two video cameras on Nov. 3, with at least one EOS-mount option and a PL option. I remember the photo of the XL1 surrounded by EOS mount lenses - I'm sure Canon can't wait to have a S35 sensor camera there (using EOS lenses on an XL1 was always stupid due to the 7x crop factor zoom...)
- these cameras may cost more than the AF100 but they will be a hell of a lot sharper and have better low-light and color performance.
- versus the FS100... not so sure. Ability to electronically control EOS lenses will be a selling point for anyone upgrading from 5D or 7D who has a bunch of lenses.
- versus Scarlet... they will offer a nice 1080p 50mbps workable codec and great color out of the box. Plus playback in-camera, XLR inputs, worldwide service centers, no $500 per-camera ownership transfer fee, accessories not on constant backorder... quite a lot, actually - even if they don't have 4K or RAW or even > 60fps. Be nice if they did, though :P
- plus of course a 1D replacement and 5D Mk2 replacement with pretty darn good video mode themselves...

To me, this article from May 2010 still provides the clearest insight into what Canon might be up to:
http://www.definitionmagazine.com/journal/2010/5/22/hollywood-squeeze-more-out-of-canons-5d-mkii.html

I should note that the 1D replacement "with pretty darn good video mode" thing has already happened :) Not sure when the 5D Mk2 replacement will come out - hopefully before NAB?

Otherwise, yaay, great time for filmmakers.

And BTW I really have nothing against the AF100. Just think it should be marketed for what it is (which is great), not what it is not IMHO.

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com
 
ARRI is a film movie camera company that only has some recent history with digital imaging. Alexa is really only their third try, after the D20 and D21.

Apart from the fact that all of this mumbo-jumbo'ism going on here is really freakingly funny at times: Arri had then teamed up for the D20 and the D21 with the Fraunhofer Institute, which was at that time considered to be to digital imaging what the Vatican is to Christianity ..... okay, only here in Europe, sorry. We did shoot with both cameras and the sensors reacted much more film-like than anything that was around at that time. Anything.

But in a technical world that develops so fast to believe that any company - Arri, Canon, Sony, Panasonic - will hold a lead (if it ever had one) against another company because of it's more or less glorious past is a bit unreal. What I personally like with the Arri till now is that indeed the way the sensor reacts is more subtle and fine tuned than anything else around. But: Maybe everything changes the day after tomorrow. But: Maybe not.
 
Bruce, my original "bet" post was made over a year ago. I don't remember exactly what I said, but I do remember that I said you wouldn't buy an actual $5,000 or $6,000 Canon large-sensor true video camera, a true competitor and true response to the AF100/FS100, before 2012.

These other posts in this thread are just adding on to it and room for more speculation. But the original bet was that Canon wouldn't have an AF100/FS100 response for at least two years, and I made that bet over a year ago.
 
Bruce, my original "bet" post was made over a year ago. I don't remember exactly what I said, but I do remember that I said you wouldn't buy an actual $5,000 or $6,000 Canon large-sensor true video camera, a true competitor and true response to the AF100/FS100, before 2012.

Agree with you 100%. Very likely that it will be 2012 when you can buy a Canon large-sensor video camera, and that Canon's cam may well cost over $6,000. But then, image quality and other things (genlock pleeeeaaaassseee) may just make it worth the extra.

But you did offer a separate bet with me... RE 2/3rds vs larger-sensor cam...
http://www.dvxuser.com/V6/showthrea...per35-camera&p=2450517&viewfull=1#post2450517
Just so that you don't think I'm being crazy or making things up!

Otherwise, yep - looking forward to Nov 3! And I have no idea what RED is up to. Excited regardless! Probably not going to buy anything - I'm a director not a DP - but all of this is going to make for some great filmmaking options for 2012. Emotionally, due to them being nice to me, my friends owning cameras, etc, I will go with RED if I can, but fascinated to see what Canon comes up with. And won't hesitate to use it if it seems better.

Bruce Allen
www.boacinema.com
 
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I don't think Chris Hurd from DV Info is going to the expense of traveling 1245 miles to see nothing...You can be assured that Canon have a Large sensor camera or two to show us and if you look at the clues like the "deliberate" dumbing down of the new Canon 1DX video features you will understand the significance of this announcement on the 3rd of November by Canon.

Canon have sat back as they did with the XF305 then brought out a 50Mbs HD camcorder thats approved by the BBC. Canon sales have floundered with the F3, FS100 & AF101 recently and realise the DSLR is not the answer.

This will give Sony, Panasonic and RED a major headache if it turns out to have all the HD broadcast features not seen in the F3, FS100 & AF101, I only hope Canon give us a decent viewfinder as they are lacking in this department from previous models.
 
I don't think Chris Hurd from DV Info is going to the expense of traveling 1245 miles to see nothing...You can be assured that Canon have a Large sensor camera or two to show us and if you look at the clues like the "deliberate" dumbing down of the new Canon 1DX video features you will understand the significance of this announcement on the 3rd of November by Canon.

Canon have sat back as they did with the XF305 then brought out a 50Mbs HD camcorder thats approved by the BBC. Canon sales have floundered with the F3, FS100 & AF101 recently and realise the DSLR is not the answer.

This will give Sony, Panasonic and RED a major headache if it turns out to have all the HD broadcast features not seen in the F3, FS100 & AF101, I only hope Canon give us a decent viewfinder as they are lacking in this department from previous models.

Let's not forget the technicolor team up with Canon. We'll see the 3rd, eh?
 
Alright, T-minus 31 hours and counting...

Here's the latest roundup of rumors:
  • There will be at least two cameras announced, possibly three.
  • PL and EF for sure. I also think a 5D3 will be “announced” but not shown.
  • A Set of Canon Prime Lenses will be shown. All manual capability.*** This is Big.
  • We already know about two PL zooms shown at NAB 2011.
  • Removable LCD.
  • No 60P Full HD. Only 720
  • 4:2:2 with 4:4:4 Upgrade as an additional upgrade.
  • $10K plus for the EF model and up to $15K for the PL version.
  • I think the 5D3 will be a little higher than 5D2 at around $3K.
  • There will be less expensive models to follow.
 
If I am not mistaken Chris Hurd is already on NDA. So if he is traveling that far, I am sure that he knows it is for a big announcement.
 
If it's not 4K -- or at least upgradable to 4K recording -- then Canon might as well count itself out of the high-end digital-cinema market, because it will be at least a year behind everyone else. Red has Red One and Epic, Sony has its F65, JVC has announced 4K2K (i.e., Quad HD) technology, and although it hasn't yet announced a 4K camera, Panasonic has released the specs for the 4K, 12-bit, 4:4:4 AVC-Intra extensions.
 
If it's not 4K -- or at least upgradable to 4K recording -- then Canon might as well count itself out of the high-end digital-cinema market

That's a bit of an extreme statement. I don't know for sure if this camera is 4K or not--this is just a rumor. But even if it isn't, it's not the end of the world. This is a first generation product (for digital cinema) for them. Canon doesn't necessarily have to go all out on the first try. Maybe they have something more high-end cooking later.
 
There was some talk here about rolling shutter on different cameras. I collected screenshots from the Zacuto camera shootout and tried to put them in order from best to worse. There were two tests, one that simulated panning across a wall and one that simulated shooting a fan or propellor. As Barry Green said, the Alexa has the least rolling shutter, of the rolling shutter cameras --- although it still really bothers me. I watched, for example, the trailer for Avengers, and I could see skew as the camera moved across some buildings at a not very fast rate. What surprised me, though, is how well the Canon 1D Mark IV performed. It may be harder for you to see here, but in my image editor I superimposed it with others. It and the Sony F3 had the same amount of skew. Followed by the AF100. Followed by the RED One MX.

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If it's not 4K -- or at least upgradable to 4K recording -- then Canon might as well count itself out of the high-end digital-cinema market, because it will be at least a year behind everyone else. Red has Red One and Epic, Sony has its F65, JVC has announced 4K2K (i.e., Quad HD) technology, and although it hasn't yet announced a 4K camera, Panasonic has released the specs for the 4K, 12-bit, 4:4:4 AVC-Intra extensions.

Well if the $10k price is true, then it should be in a great position. I don't think there's going to be too much competition there unless Red comes out with the Epic-S afterall (I think Scarlet's staying 2/3"). I mean right now you've got the Af100, and then the F3...it sounds like Canon's camera would fit right in the middle price-wise, but could potentially challenge the F3 in quality. That's pretty big.
 
Apart from the fact that all of this mumbo-jumbo'ism going on here is really freakingly funny at times: Arri had then teamed up for the D20 and the D21 with the Fraunhofer Institute, which was at that time considered to be to digital imaging what the Vatican is to Christianity ..... okay, only here in Europe, sorry. We did shoot with both cameras and the sensors reacted much more film-like than anything that was around at that time. Anything.

But in a technical world that develops so fast to believe that any company - Arri, Canon, Sony, Panasonic - will hold a lead (if it ever had one) against another company because of it's more or less glorious past is a bit unreal. What I personally like with the Arri till now is that indeed the way the sensor reacts is more subtle and fine tuned than anything else around. But: Maybe everything changes the day after tomorrow. But: Maybe not.
That's not true, everyone at reduser says that Alexa image looks like video. Everyone outside reduser says that Red looks videoish and Alexa looks closer to film than any other digital camera. I believe that guys at reduser knows better. They have bought EPIC and they are pro film makers. Those guys don't even waste time doing big budget projects. They shoot home videos because that's what they want to do. Only soccer moms shoot big budget stuff.

Alexa = digital video camera.
RED = Digital Cinema Camera Super System For Professionals.
 
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