P2 Shenanigans

PaulC said:
My sense is that (again) unless P2 prices fall and storage sizes (that can be used with this camera) increase dramatically by the time the camera is sold, then a few weeks before the launch, or maybe even before, Sony will announce an optical system that will blow this camera away from a cost/quality perspective.
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Wow. If that were a bet, I'd take it . . .


PaulC said:
Jubal: The "mechanical" portion of any optical based system will be *so* minor, that it **will not be the limiting factor in time to failure**, not even close.
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The motor(s) in any mechincal system will eventually fail. They will also generate heat, and consume more power. All of these are disadvantages that solid state doesn't have.

And a ten-disc system will have a substrantial mechinical component to it.
 
Brian: No, just one disk. I believe they have a buffer, that gives you 10 seconds to change a disk. That's not a lot of time. They should increase that to 60 seconds and then it would be no problem. The transfer rate is fast enough to catch up and clear the buffer.

Also, the buffer could also be used to guard against shocks. The electronics should be able to detect a "good" or "bad" writing environment and buffer vidoe when it's bad..although this requires a disk writing system that can stop and pick-up (I believe this already exists...really not sure). I believe this is already tested. There is at least one website that mentions it (search for XDCAM).

I doubt optical, even with the benefits of electronic, would ever be just as reliable as solid state as far as bumps go. But, I suspect that with a bump level big enough to cause difficlty for optical, you wouldn't be using the shot :). It would probably not only have to be a large bump, but sustained to fill up the buffering. Now this s speculation....but I'm just guessing based on some quotes from Sony that are available online.
 
Jubal, the electronics will be much more likely to fail before the optical motor does. The heat is minimal, as are the power requirements. Not an issue.
 
Brian: I read somewhere else that they have no plans to go over 32GB, and that was after that slide was presented.
 
1)How do you access the data from an XDcam disc and what does it current price of that device?
2)What is the most affordable XDcam camcorder today and what is the quality level, including
resolution, interlaced or progressive, color sampling, and compression level?
3)Do they offer have or can they make a handheld camera with optical discs?
4)What editing solutions are there currently or planned for XDcam? Can you edit on a laptop?

The buffer thing is a pretty neat idea, but I'd like to hear some of my other concerns rebutted.
Thanks.
 
Sony will announce an optical system that will blow this camera away from a cost/quality perspective.
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That's a fascinating perspective.

Considering that if you want to add 24p capability to one of their cameras, the 24p option board *alone* costs more than an HVX.

With 2 8gb P2 cards included.

With all due respect, I will believe Sony has a competitive product when I see it. The current state of XDCAM recording is way too slow to support any sort of HD stream other than HDV. $30 per disk is an intriguing advantage, yes, but what do you get to record on that disk? That's the difference.

I predict we'll see an external optical recording device that could be used with the HVX long before we'll see a $6,000 1080/24p optical recording camera from Sony. I'd love to be proven wrong, but... hey, time will tell.
 
Well, Sony isn't eactly known for gracefully finding niches. They're more known for trying to sledgehammer a huge hole in a market and replace it with the stuff they want to sell.
 
Barry: Sometime this year I suspect you'll see v2 of the Blu-Ray spec, which will put them at 70Mbps. One more move and they'll be over 100Mbps. So, I do think it is a realistic proposal.

If anything, perhaps this threat will be what brings P2 costs down. It sure would be nice to record straight to optical, since that's where my archiving would be anyway.
 
Competition is good for all of us, that's for sure. A portable FireStore-style blu-ray recorder could be a very appealing type of recording device, whether it works on the Sony or the Panasonic.

I think P2 prices are going to be taken care of by competition. By this time next year you'll probably have at least four sources for P2 (or P2 replacement) recording options. Today's prices for cards will likely prove to be utterly irrelevant in short order.
 
Sometime this year I suspect you'll see v2 of the Blu-Ray spec, which will put them at 70Mbps. One more move and they'll be over 100Mbps.
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See--that's the problem with Sony. It's always a new format, a new tape machine, a new kind of disc, a new this-or-that widget every two years that makes everything you've got now completely obsolete. You can't take a BetacamSP camcorder (with NON-dockable back) and simply "upgrade" to DigiBeta by sending in your camera and writing a check. Doesn't work that way with any camera.

So--who cares if they incrementally bump the speed of optical discs from 70 to 100mbps? That still isn't too quick, friend. And, you'll need a new camera (based on 20+ years reputation of Sony Broadcast) to access that higher speed. Question: Do you work for Sony in NYC?
 
No, I don't work for Sony. I'm just looking at their announcements and puting 2+2 together. The optical disk format can already record MPEG2 at 50Mbps, accoring to one website I saw. Don't get me wrong, I'd be the first to buy the Panny cam IF I can record full HD for 3-4 hours on a completely portable system. The current recording setup on this camera is SO limited, that I would rather wait for an optical system that would be much cheaper and just as good (I'm not going to be reocrding while subjecting my camera to 1500Gs of force, so this supposed benefit is a non-issue). The blu-ray spec will very quickly surpass any data rate that is necessary for HD recording. Since they are already building cheap camcorders with optical disks, it's just a matter of time before blu-ray disk gets mounted. Being able to record directly to the archival medium at cheap rates will be such a huge benefit, either P2 prices will have to drop, or the P2 system will become obsolete.

I don't buy into this idea that the price reduction is just a matter of scale. I expect that solid state memory will remain expensive for some time. But, we'll see....hey, if Panny surprises us with a 16GB card for $1k in December, then I'd probably buy the cam, otherwise, cheaper to wait it out and get optical when it comes. And, it WILL come, I'm very sure.
 
Here is an interesting article, talking about blu-ray recorders from Panny's parent and Sony in 2005, although Sony was discounting the 2005 date:

http://www.camcorderinfo.com/content/Sony-and-Matsushita-to-Release-Blu-ray-Camcorders-in-2005.htm

Note the 15GB size of the disk, since they are 8cm instead of full-size, as with the current DVD recording systems. This still would put the camera ahead of Panny's 8GB card.

Is there any guarantee that if/when the 16GB P2 card is released that it will work with the existing cam? Maybe Jan or someone from Panny could confirm.
 
I think solid state will cost more per unit than a optical disc. By itself, the optical disc has no recording or playback without a specialised camera or deck. (EDIT:unless a computer can read an XDcam disc with a BluRay drive??) This is where the cost benefit of a CardBus solid state memory is valuable for me and what I do because I can pop it in my laptop and begin editing. Even if portability isn't a concern, a mechanical system in a camera takes up space and more power than something that isn't mechanical. I think this would be a safe statment to make. Oh, I'm sure there will be a 100Mbps optical format eventually, but then will you have 3-4 of recording on a completely portable system? I don't think a Lithium brick would power a camcorder that long... they certainly don't now with HD cameras with moving mechanisms. So, for the amount of space you would potentially save in not having to carry 3-4 enormous batteries, I bet you could carry a harddrive to copy your cards on while you're using the other. I don't think that is any more inconvenient than having to change a battery every hour, which is how long a Lithium brick will last on an HD camera, in my experience.

Do you realise that 2-8GB cards will handle 40 minutes of 720p24 in DVCPRO-HD codec?
 
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