P2 Shenanigans
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RyanF
Member
So, if they can't possibly be made for less, why would SanDisk, PNY, Kingston, ect., buy up any license agreement on top of their production cost?
In my defence:
I also understand that this is a volunteer postition for you. But who are you kidding? You make money here too. I bought your book & dvd, you got my $70+. If you make no profit on that book/dvd combo then I am a horrible person. (By the way, thanks for sending it so quickly! I got it in only 2 days from when i ordered it.)
What I am "clamoring" feels more like asking OPEC to lower the cost of oil so I can drive the $15,000 Dodge Truck I bought since I could never afford what I'd really like, a Viper. None the less, it'd be nice to drive my new truck all the way to work without having to refuel 4 times (and at the price of another truck just to have the means to do so). I think to us it feels more like trading in your 2004 Dodge truck for a 2005 becuase it has a smoother ride, then having to pay double what you paid previously becuase it has a converter to take a new special kind of gas - possibly rocket fuel by comparisson.
I appreciate your work and everything you guys do here. But look at how cheap flash memory is, then look at the P2 solution. I think we all want that explanation. I'm not going to stop using my camera over it. I may even buy the new camera for what it can do in SD, then a year later invest in the P2 solution. But paying this much for media storage is a new thing in our world, there is no denying that. You don't see why people will be upset? Or will you just not admit you do? Do you feel like P2 is really a bargain? The camera sure sounds like it. But its a car with a monopolistic fuel right now.
If panny can't afford to lower P2 costs it would be nice to know why so that we all don't feel left out of the HD revolution. How about a special artilce on the techological differences from P2 and other cheaper solid state storage, or exactly why it costs so much. I'd like to see those comparisons and expanations.
You can say that we are being unrealistic about the P2s price, but until it's proven that they are doing all they can, everyone that makes 40-60k a year shooting is taking an unhappy pay cut if the HVX footage is as good as they say it will be. Everyone knows all to well that as soon as our competition buys the HXV200, we should already have had it and mastered it. Hell, we'll probably buy your new book to help us.
So I'll "exhort" you one more time. . . Take our side! Ask panny for some real answers. Don't alienate your own readers because Panasonic employees are your friends and co-authors. You are our only man on the inside. Please, I mean all of this with the best of intentions.
Obie-Wan Berry, you are my only hope. =)
In my defence:
I also understand that this is a volunteer postition for you. But who are you kidding? You make money here too. I bought your book & dvd, you got my $70+. If you make no profit on that book/dvd combo then I am a horrible person. (By the way, thanks for sending it so quickly! I got it in only 2 days from when i ordered it.)
What I am "clamoring" feels more like asking OPEC to lower the cost of oil so I can drive the $15,000 Dodge Truck I bought since I could never afford what I'd really like, a Viper. None the less, it'd be nice to drive my new truck all the way to work without having to refuel 4 times (and at the price of another truck just to have the means to do so). I think to us it feels more like trading in your 2004 Dodge truck for a 2005 becuase it has a smoother ride, then having to pay double what you paid previously becuase it has a converter to take a new special kind of gas - possibly rocket fuel by comparisson.
I appreciate your work and everything you guys do here. But look at how cheap flash memory is, then look at the P2 solution. I think we all want that explanation. I'm not going to stop using my camera over it. I may even buy the new camera for what it can do in SD, then a year later invest in the P2 solution. But paying this much for media storage is a new thing in our world, there is no denying that. You don't see why people will be upset? Or will you just not admit you do? Do you feel like P2 is really a bargain? The camera sure sounds like it. But its a car with a monopolistic fuel right now.
If panny can't afford to lower P2 costs it would be nice to know why so that we all don't feel left out of the HD revolution. How about a special artilce on the techological differences from P2 and other cheaper solid state storage, or exactly why it costs so much. I'd like to see those comparisons and expanations.
You can say that we are being unrealistic about the P2s price, but until it's proven that they are doing all they can, everyone that makes 40-60k a year shooting is taking an unhappy pay cut if the HVX footage is as good as they say it will be. Everyone knows all to well that as soon as our competition buys the HXV200, we should already have had it and mastered it. Hell, we'll probably buy your new book to help us.
So I'll "exhort" you one more time. . . Take our side! Ask panny for some real answers. Don't alienate your own readers because Panasonic employees are your friends and co-authors. You are our only man on the inside. Please, I mean all of this with the best of intentions.
Obie-Wan Berry, you are my only hope. =)
wabbit
Evil has Ears
Instead of buying the $15,000 gas hog, buy the $20,000 Prius that gets more then double the gas milage. Costs more up front but saves money in the end.
Same is true of the P2 cards. I also believe that Panasonic is not making outragous profits on these cards but even at their present price, they are a bargin compared to what is out there. And they will only get cheaper. There are several posts showing how you will save money using P2 cards instead of tape even if you don't take into account how much expense is involved in a tape drive that can record HD and the upkeep to keep a HD tape drive running.
I am thrilled with the HVX and P2 price. It is an amazing bargin for what you get. And it will only get cheaper with time. To repeat someone's earlier point, why do you need HD right now anyways? If you can't make money shooting HD right now it is a luxury and if you can't afford that luxury....save money and buy that Viper Barry likes
Same is true of the P2 cards. I also believe that Panasonic is not making outragous profits on these cards but even at their present price, they are a bargin compared to what is out there. And they will only get cheaper. There are several posts showing how you will save money using P2 cards instead of tape even if you don't take into account how much expense is involved in a tape drive that can record HD and the upkeep to keep a HD tape drive running.
I am thrilled with the HVX and P2 price. It is an amazing bargin for what you get. And it will only get cheaper with time. To repeat someone's earlier point, why do you need HD right now anyways? If you can't make money shooting HD right now it is a luxury and if you can't afford that luxury....save money and buy that Viper Barry likes
thisiswells
Retired
the car fuel illustration is a good one.. even whole milk is less expensive than a gallon of gas. and, you're going to tell me there is less oil in the world than than cow milk? seems like to me like cow milk is more rare than oil--at least in the quantity the world consumes oil v cow milk.
okay, no more thread hijacking from me.
okay, no more thread hijacking from me.
I invented a car that runs on milk. So it costs like 4 dollars a gallon for fuel, but it doesn't pollute the environment....that's why I made it. I'm thinking about buying a dairy farm....that way I'll be able to save money on fuel. I'll have to spend alot up front....farms ain't cheap ya' know....but in the long run I'll be able to gas up the car for free practically. Not to mention all the cereal and chocolate milk I'll be able to have.
~reservoir~
~reservoir~
Barry_Green
Moderator
Again, work with me: if they *can* be made for less, than SanDisk, PNY, and Kingston will make them for less. They're not fools. And if SanDisk, PNY, and Kingston can't make them for less, then why would you think Panasonic is overcharging?RyanF said:
Market forces will win out. There is no vast all-consuming conspiracy here, nobody's forcing someone to buy an overly outrageously priced product. The product is made available at the price they think is reasonable. If the public thinks it's reasonable, they'll buy it. If they don't, they won't. And if some entrepreneur thinks that the cost is too high and they can do better -- they'll step in. Look at Jarred with the batteries -- he produces 5000 mah batteries and retails them for about 1/3 of what Panasonic charges for their battery. I don't know how he does it, other than he pretty much offers them here at cost. But he saw an opportunity, he stepped forward, and he made it happen.
Others will as well.
And if not? There's no rule that says you have to *ever* buy a P2 card. You could shoot straight to a FireStore type of device, or to a desktop or a laptop. People will come out with all sorts of alternative storage ideas. There's SIX MONTHS before this camera comes on the market.
The point wasn't whether anybody makes any money from having participated in the site, the point was that we have no influence over Panasonic, nor does Panasonic have any influence over us. We're not employees, we're not officials, we're not tied to Panasonic in any way. We have no more authority over them than you do. We're independent businessmen, consultants, shooters, and producers. Yes I've gotten my share of jobs through DVXUser, as I'm sure many of the other mods have as well. But it's not through any official status, it's just that people read our messages, think we know what we're doing, and hire us.
P2 isn't flash memory. It's not a little compactflash card that you plug into a digital camera. It's a high-tech raid engineered to exacting tolerances, with exceptionally high transfer speed. It has a transfer rate of 640mbps -- does compactflash? It's not the same technology. P2 is to compactflash as that Viper is to the Neon SRT.
And currently, P2 is sold in very low quantities, and low quantities = high prices. When there's 10,000 cameras out there, you can bet P2 prices will be lower. When there's 100,000 cameras out there, you can bank on the fact that P2 prices will be a *lot* lower. When there's a million cameras out there, P2 prices will be quite a lot lower.
And if the competition steps in and offers other P2 alternatives, the prices will go as low as they can, as quickly as they can. That's how competition works.
Now, Ryan, I'd like to ask you to consider something: do you know what the HVX would cost if they had put a tape deck in it instead? By all accounts, about $21,000. Getting rid of the tape deck and putting in a P2 mechanism dropped that price to $6,000. Plus it means you don't have to buy a deck -- do you know what a DVCPRO-HD deck costs? The cheapest one, with firewire output, is $25,000. But because of P2, you don't need to buy that at all. Do you know what DVCPRO-HD tape costs? It sure ain't $4 like a DV cassette! DVCPRO-HD tape costs more like $70 for an hour. Of course, with P2, you don't need 'em or ever use them.
It's not media storage. It's the RAM of the camera. You archive onto cheap hard disks for media storage.
Please, be serious. I would *love* for 128gb P2 cards to be sold at Best Buy for $8.99 each. It is an impossibility. It doesn't exist. It's fantasy. It will never happen. Who wouldn't want them to be cheap?
I'll tell you who has the most vested interest in P2 cards being as cheap as possible: Jan Crittenden. As product brand manager for the HVX, it's Jan's job to sell cameras, not P2 cards. I believe it's someone else's division that sells P2 cards. If there were any way possible for Jan to get P2 cards down to $100, I think she'd move heaven and earth to do it. But she can't. She's only in the US division, not the entire global conglomerate. And P2 is someone else's division, I believe.
Jan is judged based on how many cameras she sells, not how many P2 cards someone else sells. You show her a way to sell cards for $100, and she'll be the best friend you ever had.
In context with what it allows them to deliver us? Hell yes. Considering that you'll probably only ever need to buy two of them in your life? And that, overall, we're talking about a camera for a package price of $10,000 that lets us do things that it used to cost over $100,000 to do? Yes, I think it's a screaming bargain.
Do I think $2,000 for 8 minutes is a bargain? No, that seems pretty high. But that's not how you look at it! That's not how you use it. P2 cards are like RAM sticks for the camera, like part of a computer. Have you priced RAM recently? A 2gb stick costs $780 over at Crucial. That's about the same price as a 2gb P2 card.
Only until others start making fuel, and alternative fuels. Hard disk recorders. Streaming to laptops. Adapters that let you record to off-the-shelf hard disks. There are probably many, many alternative recording methods that will come out.
I am only, ever, on the side of the consumer. I have worn out my knuckles badgering Jan with e-mails. Why do you think I know as much about the camera as I do? I stalk her. I spent three hours with her and Phil (P2 partner boss at Panasonic) and Jarred Land, we penned them up in their hotel room, badgering them about the camera, and telling them the perspective of those of us on the ground. The shooters. The day-rate guys. I have explained and described and pushed and badgered in every way I can, to make sure that they understand exactly what we need. And, unlike almost everyone who comments on the P2 issue, I've actually *used* P2. So I'm not talking from some theoretical standpoint, someone just saying "it costs too much" -- I've used HDV, and I've used DVCPRO-HD, I've used P2.
P2 is a revolution. You will never, and I mean never, want to use tape again.
I think instead of pushing me to do more, your efforts would be better directed at getting alternative P2 manufacturers on board. Start petitions to send to SanDisk, or PNY, or Crucial, or Kingston, or Lexar, or anybody like that. Tell them you want P2 cards. Tell them to contact Phil Livingston at Panasonic. Tell them that there's an enormous market opportunity here, and they have enough lead time to take full advantage of it.
Then badger Focus and tell them we want a reasonable, usable, proper hard disk recording system.
Panasonic's done what they will, and what they can. If you want to effect a "revolution" against pricing, direct your energies towards where it will do the most good, for the consumer. You say Panasonic has "monopolistic gas"? Change that. Break the monopoly.
But trust me on this, I and Jarred and Noah have worn out our welcome regarding badgering Jan about P2 prices. There is nothing, and I mean nothing, that she can do about it.
But competition could do something about it. So push for competition.
Jan_Crittenden
Veteran
Actually Ryan if some company wants to license the P2 card and build them, this is not a problem.
But the moderators would have no influence over the price of the card. It is the technology and the cost of that technology that dirves the price of the card.
The cards start with 4 60X transfer SD Memory cards with 0 Defects. They are then strapped together with an LSI that turns it into a Raid 0 array. Then it is it placeed into a diecast chassis that has a PCMCIA structure that is warranted to a 15G(gravitational force) impact. The connection is warranted for 30,000 insertions and the memory viable for 100,000 rewrites.
Anyone that wants to make a card that is up to those requirements, then the game is open. They are expensive to make. And anyone that wants sanction and endorsement from Panaosnic would have to build them to our spec.
I have not read the entire thread and in fact, have the thread presented in most current first. It is not a matter of quantity, it is a matter of introduction of the new SD card and with all technology it starts expensive. The new 2 GB 60X SD card will have a list price of about $399, we need 4. But according to Moore's law, prices in technology will fall over time.
Perhaps you are reading into Barry's comment that he too doesn't want lower prices, I don't think that is what Barry meant with his comment. I think that Barry is restating what I told him right after he said what you are saying. I said that it is not cheap to build these little cards, and it isn't. I think the HVX will help in that the quantity required will go up and that might help bring about faster R & D on the next rounds of the SD innovation. It may even help in bringing the pricing down, but that is only something that time and market pressures will bring and there isn't a word that can influence that but rather market action.
I hope this helps,
Jan
Jan,
if i may be so bold as to ask.
I recogninze that the camera will not be coming with an 8GB card.. as the price of the cam + 2 8GBcards will be 9995.00 , but as it is at this time , is there any chance it will ship with a 4GB card? alot of us would like to shoot HD out of the box, and i think its a factor in alot of purchase decisions as well. ..just looking for any insight on this.
Neil
if i may be so bold as to ask.
I recogninze that the camera will not be coming with an 8GB card.. as the price of the cam + 2 8GBcards will be 9995.00 , but as it is at this time , is there any chance it will ship with a 4GB card? alot of us would like to shoot HD out of the box, and i think its a factor in alot of purchase decisions as well. ..just looking for any insight on this.
Neil
Jan,
Thank you for that explanation. I wondered what was making the P2 cards so expensive. As an IT person, I was curious. Built-in RAID capability, so I guess that is how you are getting the speed you need. Fascinating!
I didn't take Barry's quote as being sarcastic, but I guess some would.
I believe it appeared to many that Panasonic might be selling the camera inexpensively, and making the money on the P2 cards.
Although, I'll have to call my buddy at Intel who is the memory expert and see if he can get you some special prices!
-Jerry
Thank you for that explanation. I wondered what was making the P2 cards so expensive. As an IT person, I was curious. Built-in RAID capability, so I guess that is how you are getting the speed you need. Fascinating!
I didn't take Barry's quote as being sarcastic, but I guess some would.
I believe it appeared to many that Panasonic might be selling the camera inexpensively, and making the money on the P2 cards.
Although, I'll have to call my buddy at Intel who is the memory expert and see if he can get you some special prices!
-Jerry
Manufacturing costs are one thing, and no doubt they’re steep.
There’s R&D costs as well, which have to absorbed.
And then there’s just plain profit, which every business is in business for.
A lot of this wrangling over P2 prices really does remind me of the wailing over DVD prices. “Oh, it only costs 50 cents to make a DVD; why are we paying twenty bucks?” By all means, go buy a 50-cent DVD and play it as much as you want. When you’re done watching the “no disc” error on the screen, you’ll understand that you’re paying not just for physical things, but for content as well.
While P2 cards aren’t sold with content on them, the principle is the same. Why don’t you make your own P2 cards, if it’s that simple and cheap? Buy four SD cards and arrange them in an array yourself, build the interface, and keep them at Panasonic specs. I think it’s pretty clear that you’re paying for a lot more than just four SD cards glued to a little piece of plastic.
P2 cards will cost what they cost until market forces drive them down. Does that mean that “the masses” will be able to/interested in buying them right away? Maybe not. But for what other piece of equipment could you possibly say that? Who had a VCR in 1970? Who had a DVD player in 1996?
There’s R&D costs as well, which have to absorbed.
And then there’s just plain profit, which every business is in business for.
A lot of this wrangling over P2 prices really does remind me of the wailing over DVD prices. “Oh, it only costs 50 cents to make a DVD; why are we paying twenty bucks?” By all means, go buy a 50-cent DVD and play it as much as you want. When you’re done watching the “no disc” error on the screen, you’ll understand that you’re paying not just for physical things, but for content as well.
While P2 cards aren’t sold with content on them, the principle is the same. Why don’t you make your own P2 cards, if it’s that simple and cheap? Buy four SD cards and arrange them in an array yourself, build the interface, and keep them at Panasonic specs. I think it’s pretty clear that you’re paying for a lot more than just four SD cards glued to a little piece of plastic.
P2 cards will cost what they cost until market forces drive them down. Does that mean that “the masses” will be able to/interested in buying them right away? Maybe not. But for what other piece of equipment could you possibly say that? Who had a VCR in 1970? Who had a DVD player in 1996?
RyanF
Member
Jan_Crittenden said:
It does.
Thank you Jan and Berry for your posts. Sorry for my the abrassive tones in my posts but I've spent hours reading here before I even signed up and I got tired of everyone beating around the bush / not getting the point accross. I really appreciate both of your responces. Thanks.
I think the reason the DVX was so successfull was it's price. Schools, teachers, students, aspiring film makers with no budget,consumers dreaming of being in the prosumer category; this is the tool for them.
What do you guys think will be the target market for this camera? I would think this is an entry-level camera with professional grade output. But at P2s pricing right now, do you think schools, students, ect. will find it in there budget to be able to teach/learn HD yet? And if the majority cannot afford the camera yet, how will that effect panasonic's future in developing for the consumer / prosumer market?
-Ryan
Barry_Green
Moderator
Yes, that would work with standard DV.Zim said:
The existing FireStore products cannot handle more than a 40mbps data stream, and are only configured to recognize/understand and record DV (or, with an upgrade, HDV).
So the existing FireStore will not work for DVCPRO-50 or DVCPRO-HD. However, that's really moot, because the camera won't be available for at least six months.
By the time the camera comes out, you can be pretty sure that there will be a fully-compatible FireStore for it.
RyanF: You are my hero. Thanks so much for the post on P2 prices. For me, it's very simple: Lower the cost of P2, get 16GB cards, get reasonably priced, totally portable storage with decent size (eg. P2 Store >= 64GB, not 60GB) and I'll buy a slew of cards, several Stores and a camera. Leave things the way they are, and, well, I'll probably buy the Z1, or maybe wait for the next Sony cam that will likely be optical disk based (my guess).
PaulC said:
And while we're at it, why not just sell the DVX for $100? Sure would sell more cameras that way. How about it, Panasonic? :thumbsup:
Jubal: I think once we get the P2 price breakdown that Ryan suggested, you'd see that the requests are not that crazy. My suspicion is with Ryan on this: The P2 price is too high considering production costs and some reasonable profit. I'd like to see the breakdown. For example, if someone did want to produce a card, we've heard about the "license". How much does that cost? I believe the point Ryan is making, and certainly the point I'm making, is that selling those items only slightly above production cost (ie. without taking into account licensing cost) would push sales of this camera way, way, way higher...and probably push P2 sales way higher too.
Here is another reason for Panasonic to sell P2 only marginally above production-only cost: Before the presumed reduction in P2 prices and increase in size happens, Sony will possibly be out with an optical disk-based camera. And, since most people are likely to back footage up onto Blu-Ray and/or HD-DVD disks anyway, a lot of folks who can't afford P2 now will buy those cameras then. Reducing P2 to just above production-only cost would choke a lot of that off, and keep P2 in the mainstream going forward.
Here is another reason for Panasonic to sell P2 only marginally above production-only cost: Before the presumed reduction in P2 prices and increase in size happens, Sony will possibly be out with an optical disk-based camera. And, since most people are likely to back footage up onto Blu-Ray and/or HD-DVD disks anyway, a lot of folks who can't afford P2 now will buy those cameras then. Reducing P2 to just above production-only cost would choke a lot of that off, and keep P2 in the mainstream going forward.