NAB 06 Predictions?

joe 1008 said:
No expensive tapedrive, no complicated 3-chip-solution. This camera is going a different way. There might be a surprise.

The Dalsa Origin:

Single Chip, No Tapedrive, 4k sensor. 3k dollars a day.

The Red is following exactly in the footsteps of its competitors, just somehow cheaper.
 
Well I look forward to it even if I can't buy one just yet. And if you are going to have oreos at the booth well you need to also get those little milk carrtons that you use to gett when you where in kindergarden
 
im.thatoneguy said:
The Dalsa Origin:

Single Chip, No Tapedrive, 4k sensor. 3k dollars a day.

The Red is following exactly in the footsteps of its competitors, just somehow cheaper.
You know, that's exactly what I was thinking, too, but he keeps making mention of the "modular" approach that will make it possible. The more I think about that as well, the more it makes sense.

Often times there are differences between models that probably cost little or nothing to implement but cause the price to differ greatly because of demand. Look at the two new XDCAM HD models from Sony - aside from the HD SDI out port, they are identical in every way except one offers variable framerate functionality at a cost of $9,000 more. That functionality is most likely just a software implementation that costs them nothing in physical parts over the "lesser" camera but they can charge for it because they know people want it. In fact, just a couple of years ago, some people had hacked Canon's popular Digital Rebel DSLR camera to re-enable features that were available in the similar but more expensive 10D camera but were simply "turned off" in the software.

With this approach, I am getting the impression that you will be buying the "RED" body basically just as the sensor and chipset, and from there you upgrade to whatever features you want. They don't have to include additional license fees for using a particular codec, because you'll be paying it yourself when you upgrade the camera with a DVCPROHD card (or whatever). The lenses are separate and removable, so they don't factor into the price of the camera either. You want variable framerates? Just buy the RED "variable framerate expansion upgrade" (let's hope that doesn't cost $9,000 ala the Sony), plug it in, and start shooting. And if you can't afford the entire buffet at the outset, at least you can rent the "extra features" on a per-shoot basis. That could make for a really interesting system. Anyway, this keeps the base price of the camera low and also allows for expansion LONG into the future, helping to keep your camera a worthwhile investment. Jim and Co. still make money, because you have to keep buying upgrades to keep current with advances in technology. But at least the camera doesn't get obsoleted in a year (like most others do).

I agree with you that it will still be amazing to see a 4K chipset delivered to the masses at a competitive pricepoint to what most people on this forum are able to afford, but I don't think he stands to gain much by coming to places like this and making suggestions that he wants the camera to be accessible for all of us just to turn around and surprise everyone with a camera that costs $100,000. The future will certainly be interesting...
 
Haakon said:
I agree with you that it will still be amazing to see a 4K chipset delivered to the masses at a competitive pricepoint to what most people on this forum are able to afford, but I don't think he stands to gain much by coming to places like this and making suggestions that he wants the camera to be accessible for all of us just to turn around and surprise everyone with a camera that costs $100,000.
It might be a tough sell even at $25,000 (especially if that doesn't include the lens). People on this forum complain about the real cost of getting up and running with the HVX, and understandably so, given that for many $10,000 is a significant outlay, despite the fact that until now, a DVCProHD camera cost $70-100K. Likewise, a comparable 4K camera costs hundreds of thousands and $25,000 would be a relative steal, but it's still probably out of the price range of many if not most of the members of the forum. That's why I'm having a hard time understanding why it's being pitched to indy (and I mean ultra-low-budget) filmmakers. It's not like a $25,000 film camera, which could have a 20- to 30-year lifespan -- video technology is depreciated much, much more quickly, so rental prices are correspondingly higher.
 
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That's the point of the modular system, though. Unless you outgrow a 4K sensor in the next year, the body of the camera will last you a much longer time than most cameras today. You just upgrade the codec or the lens or whatever other part of the system you want to as the years go by and technology changes.
 
Haakon said:
That's the point of the modular system, though. Unless you outgrow a 4K sensor in the next year, the body of the camera will last you a much longer time than most cameras today. You just upgrade the codec or the lens or whatever other part of the system you want to as the years go by and technology changes.
I understand that, but do the rental houses? Also, the $25,000 figure is, I assume, for a barebones system. A really usable system may be double that. A bargain compared with a Dalsa or Viper, but still pretty steep. Unless you're going for a theatrical distribution, 4K will be overkill probably for the next several years. Barry and others are making money with a $10K (with the fixin's) HVX and will be able to do so for a few years. As amazing as RED promises to be, it's not clear to me that it will be a reasonable purchase alternative for most forum members, unless it proves to be the last camera they'll need to buy for a long, long time.
 
Tzedekh said:
It might be a tough sell even at $25,000 (especially if that doesn't include the lens). People on this forum complain about the real cost of getting up and running with the HVX, and understandably so, given that for many $10,000 is a significant outlay, despite the fact that until now, a DVCProHD camera cost $70-100K. Likewise, a comparable 4K camera costs hundreds of thousands and $25,000 would be a relative steal, but it's still probably out of the price range of many if not most of the members of the forum. That's why I'm having a hard time understanding why it's being pitched to indy (and I mean ultra-low-budget) filmmakers. It's not like a $25,000 film camera, which could have a 20- to 30-year lifespan -- video technology is depreciated much, much more quickly, so rental prices are correspondingly higher.


$25,000? Is this just a guess? Has the price been announced? I don't think that a 25,000 dollar number is wrong & I do think that this is an Indy film maker’s price. But I do think we are all going to be surprised. And Why not. We have been told that we are going to get something that doesn’t follow the norm. So that could be a cam for $10,000 or a 4k system for $50,000 the point is that we just don't know. And I can't wait to find out.
 
imgentertainment@mac said:
$25,000? Is this just a guess? Has the price been announced?
It's neither a guess (at least not on my part) nor the announced price. It's the high end of the "winning" predicted price range in a survey conducted over at dvinfo (not coincidentally, it's also the lowest price range).
I don't think that a 25,000 dollar number is wrong & I do think that this is an Indy film maker’s price.
Maybe, but I still maintain that unless it has a long usable lifespan (like an Eclair NPR or Arriflex SR), it may prove too expensive for most indies to buy (or rent, if its rental rates are commensurate with those of other video cameras).
 
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