NAB 06 Predictions?
- Thread starter redindian
- Start date
Barry_Green
Moderator
I'd take that bet.
No way will JVC introduce a followup to the HD100. They'll bundle it with the optional lens maybe, or bundle it with IDX batteries, but the basic HD100 unit is here to stay for a while. SSE will forever be part of the nature of having used two processors to read out the signal; as long as they stick with that chipset, the potential will always be there, which is kind of what their FAQ says. They'd have to go with a whole new design to get rid of SSE, and they're not going to do that until they've recovered the R&D of having developed this system.
Sony: no way. They've already pretty much said what they're going to do, which is HDCAM XD in 1/2". That's what they'll be showing. Plus a new HDV deck which takes large tapes, etc. Maybe some sort of clamshell field HDV deck. But no replacement for the Z1. Remember the Z1 is barely a year old, it hit the market almost a year ago to the day. They're not going to replace it or supersede it any time soon. And no way will they add 24p to it.
They may introduce a shoulder-mount DSR250-style Z1, but if so, it'll still be the same interlaced imaging system. No 24P under $10k from Sony, I'd be flabbergasted and gobsmacked if they delivered that.
I predict no new DV cameras from anybody.
If there's any big surprises from anybody, it would probably be along the lines of someone introducing a viable 1080/50p system. Don't know of anyone even working on that (other than RED).
The big news is going to be the unveiling of Red, Infinity, the new 2/3" JVC and Panasonics, and seeing XDCAM HD in action. Outside chance of a DSR250-style shoulder-mount HDV from Sony, but not a lot of different functionality, basically a repackaged interlaced Z1.
Hoping beyond hope that NAB will bring an HVX Andromeda mod from reel-stream, and an HD Rack from Serious Magic.
Those are my bets anyway.
No way will JVC introduce a followup to the HD100. They'll bundle it with the optional lens maybe, or bundle it with IDX batteries, but the basic HD100 unit is here to stay for a while. SSE will forever be part of the nature of having used two processors to read out the signal; as long as they stick with that chipset, the potential will always be there, which is kind of what their FAQ says. They'd have to go with a whole new design to get rid of SSE, and they're not going to do that until they've recovered the R&D of having developed this system.
Sony: no way. They've already pretty much said what they're going to do, which is HDCAM XD in 1/2". That's what they'll be showing. Plus a new HDV deck which takes large tapes, etc. Maybe some sort of clamshell field HDV deck. But no replacement for the Z1. Remember the Z1 is barely a year old, it hit the market almost a year ago to the day. They're not going to replace it or supersede it any time soon. And no way will they add 24p to it.
They may introduce a shoulder-mount DSR250-style Z1, but if so, it'll still be the same interlaced imaging system. No 24P under $10k from Sony, I'd be flabbergasted and gobsmacked if they delivered that.
I predict no new DV cameras from anybody.
If there's any big surprises from anybody, it would probably be along the lines of someone introducing a viable 1080/50p system. Don't know of anyone even working on that (other than RED).
The big news is going to be the unveiling of Red, Infinity, the new 2/3" JVC and Panasonics, and seeing XDCAM HD in action. Outside chance of a DSR250-style shoulder-mount HDV from Sony, but not a lot of different functionality, basically a repackaged interlaced Z1.
Hoping beyond hope that NAB will bring an HVX Andromeda mod from reel-stream, and an HD Rack from Serious Magic.
Those are my bets anyway.
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mikkowilson
Steadi-Guru
There will be "video equipment and stuff".
Ralph Oshiro
Veteran
NBCshooter's NAB2006 PREDICTIONS:
Prices in BOLD are from published manufacturer data, everything else is only my GUESS!
Sony:
PDW-F330 1/2" XDCAM HD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $22,000 (street) including a (17:1?) Canon autofocus/manual lens.
PDW-F350 1/2" XDCAM HD (variable frame-rate) . . . . .$25,800 MSRP (body only).
SONY WILL PREVIEW A MOCK-UP OF A 2/3" XDCAM HD HIGH-DATARATE CAMERA ($40K+) FOR DELIVERY IN 2007.
JVC:
HD7000 2/3" CMOS ProHD shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . $27,950 MSRP including a lens (as yet unidentified).
JVC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING IN BETWEEN THE HD100 and HD7000.
Panasonic:
HPC2000 2/3" DVCPRO HD P2 shoulder-mount . . . . . . .$28,500 MSRP (body only).
PANASONIC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY 1/2" CAMERAS.
Thomson/Grass Valley:
Infinity 2/3" multi-format shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . .$21,999 MSRP (body only) + $1,800 24P board option shipping 3Q 2006
RED Digital Camera Company:
RED mock-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $25,000 w/out I/O, storage, lens, shipping 4Q, 200?
What'd I forget?
Prices in BOLD are from published manufacturer data, everything else is only my GUESS!
Sony:
PDW-F330 1/2" XDCAM HD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $22,000 (street) including a (17:1?) Canon autofocus/manual lens.
PDW-F350 1/2" XDCAM HD (variable frame-rate) . . . . .$25,800 MSRP (body only).
SONY WILL PREVIEW A MOCK-UP OF A 2/3" XDCAM HD HIGH-DATARATE CAMERA ($40K+) FOR DELIVERY IN 2007.
JVC:
HD7000 2/3" CMOS ProHD shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . $27,950 MSRP including a lens (as yet unidentified).
JVC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANYTHING IN BETWEEN THE HD100 and HD7000.
Panasonic:
HPC2000 2/3" DVCPRO HD P2 shoulder-mount . . . . . . .$28,500 MSRP (body only).
PANASONIC WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY 1/2" CAMERAS.
Thomson/Grass Valley:
Infinity 2/3" multi-format shoulder-mount . . . . . . . . . .$21,999 MSRP (body only) + $1,800 24P board option shipping 3Q 2006
RED Digital Camera Company:
RED mock-up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $25,000 w/out I/O, storage, lens, shipping 4Q, 200?
What'd I forget?
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Ralph Oshiro
Veteran
All modern broadcast cameras have the same Sony B4 bayonet mount. I think Century Optics makes a C-mount-to-B4 adapter.D_and_G said:
Ralph Oshiro
Veteran
I highly doubt that RED will ship for anything less than $40K or $50K. I don't see how they could do it for less. I don't know what they think "affordable" is at this level of the game. Sure, they could come out with RED for say, $30K or $35K, but with glass ($12K), that's still out of most our reaches.D_and_G said:
AppliedVisual
Active member
D_and_G said:
But that's just the thing... Jim and his crew have said that it will be "affordable" and "within reach" of us DV and low-cost HD crowd. A lot of people keep betting on the $20K pricepoint, but I haven't seen any solid indication it will be that cheap. I really do hope that they can sell it that cheap! But reality keeps kicking me in the side of the head and I'm betting it will be AT LEAST $45K for the body only. Still need glass and something to record to (a nice fiber channel RAID or something).
And I would say that $50K to $75K for a usable RED setup is "within reach". Damn expensive for what I do, but I'm sure I could afford to rent one here and there for those special projects.
imgentertainment@mac
The Reverend
I think the big thing in camera will be Red, But I don't even want to think of a price. Logic says it would be allot. But if you could make it for cheep and sale it for cheap you might make more money that way. Instead of saleing 6,000 cameras for 45,000 you could sale 150,000 for 10,000 but who knows. Any way I think the big thing will be the new FCP. I'm not going to say what people are reporting of it having but I am going to say that it will change everything and AVID is going to have a hard time. Getting use to the pressure of a real competitor.
DOesnt matter how many you can sell, you just have to price yourself in the market and let the features sell the camera. If a camera costs you $20K to make, you cant sell it for $10K. It is more than just the parts, it is recouping your R&D as well as paying your overhead, etc. Jim has not built his rep on low cost, it has been built with cutting edge product, uncompromised in quality and ingenuity. I bet you he would rather release a revolutionary $50K camera than a great $10K camera.
I mean, couldnt Panny sell a lot more Varicams if they were $10k? I think that is the market Red is aimed at, Vari and CineAlta users and renters. Nothing else would make sense. Why would you incorporate $50K of workflow into a $10K camera? It WILL be revolutionary and I am sure it will be awesome, I will rent one to play with for sure but lets be realistic... the XLH1 is $9K... RED will be a multiple of that.
ash =o)
I mean, couldnt Panny sell a lot more Varicams if they were $10k? I think that is the market Red is aimed at, Vari and CineAlta users and renters. Nothing else would make sense. Why would you incorporate $50K of workflow into a $10K camera? It WILL be revolutionary and I am sure it will be awesome, I will rent one to play with for sure but lets be realistic... the XLH1 is $9K... RED will be a multiple of that.
ash =o)
filmmaker1977
Carbonite Member
What's the problem ash? If RED is here it's why it will be indie affordable. If not, why would it be? To give promises that can't pay off! I believe in Jannard. He said that he can't tease just to say: No! It's not for you, indies! But to the mainstream. It doesn't make sense, we are his people! And he should conquer his place in the History of Cinema and of the Motion Picture Technology. He's like Edison! Digital is democracy. And he is the Edison of the Digital Cinema.
Do you know what Francis Ford Coppola predicted? (Hearts of Darkness) I can say in two words: Jim Jannard
Do you know what Francis Ford Coppola predicted? (Hearts of Darkness) I can say in two words: Jim Jannard
filmmaker1977
Carbonite Member
BTW I will not buy the HVX just because I want the RED camera. And I'm not the only one. There are a lot of people here that is thinking the same. Can you figure out the damage to HVX sales? I just know six others like me. And more.. waiting for the NAB only to know the RED price that we are waiting as..
..G R E E N it can be.
If not, think like Canon. If XLH1 it is the only HD camera of the market, why aren't they at high end broadcast? If they are in the lenses market? Because this camera it's the only HD model available. If Sony (this manufacturer brand didn't begin from the worldwide market? With a broadcast product but affordable to everyone.. Sony, do you follow? Like sonny, the son that all we want to have..), Panasonic/JVC will go to the market with just one model, they will sell it as affordable as possible. Why? Because they were wanting to be a case of sales success. And not like other vapourware Kinetta-style. Or one more DIY project. To the geeks at dvinfo.net. To digital filmmaking or just to fun like many others that spending their time posting? How many filmmakers are there? 20,000?!
006,000 x 45,000 = 0,270,000,000
150,000 x 10,000 = 1,500,000,000
5,55555555555555...x more!
I'm sorry ash but you are thinking like the older ones. And not like the successful and rich(er) ones. If Bill Gates had been thinking like you, we wouldn't be here!
I believe in Jim Jannard.
..G R E E N it can be.
If not, think like Canon. If XLH1 it is the only HD camera of the market, why aren't they at high end broadcast? If they are in the lenses market? Because this camera it's the only HD model available. If Sony (this manufacturer brand didn't begin from the worldwide market? With a broadcast product but affordable to everyone.. Sony, do you follow? Like sonny, the son that all we want to have..), Panasonic/JVC will go to the market with just one model, they will sell it as affordable as possible. Why? Because they were wanting to be a case of sales success. And not like other vapourware Kinetta-style. Or one more DIY project. To the geeks at dvinfo.net. To digital filmmaking or just to fun like many others that spending their time posting? How many filmmakers are there? 20,000?!
imgentertainment@mac said:
006,000 x 45,000 = 0,270,000,000
150,000 x 10,000 = 1,500,000,000
5,55555555555555...x more!
I'm sorry ash but you are thinking like the older ones. And not like the successful and rich(er) ones. If Bill Gates had been thinking like you, we wouldn't be here!
I believe in Jim Jannard.
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