Green Hornet
Veteran
The 2/3" HPX500 shows about 2 stops more sensitivity over the 1/3" HVX200, so your numbers are fairly spot on.
But -- this is only relevant *if all other elements stay equal*. As in, equivalent pixel count, and equivalent sensor type (CMOS or CCD) and equivalent sensor scanning method (interlaced or progressive). If Panasonic were to go from the 1/3" HVX to a 1920x1080 1/2" chip, with all other things being equal, you'd see overall sensitivity DROP by at least 1 stop, maybe 2 stops. And if they went to CMOS, you'd see another drop of probably at least another stop. And the only way to overcome that would be to scan interlaced, which means bye-bye variable frame rates. And if they went CMOS, that'd mean "hello wobble."
It's very, very, very difficult to predict how these things would perform based on an incomplete picture of what technology would be used.
I don't see Panasonic going anywhere near 1/2". They jumped straight past that to 2/3" for the HPX500. I'd like to see 'em to stick with CCDs and avoid CMOS until the whole wobble and lousy-sensitivity issues get sorted out. But frankly I don't expect a lot of action on the middle end, I expect 'em to focus their energies on the much-more-lagging low end. They need to get something HD that's less expensive than the HVX200 out there; right now there's a huge gaping hole in the product line at the low end of the price scale. Early 2007 saw 'em revamp the larger cameras, so I'd expect the DVC30/DVC60/DVX lineup is probably where we'll see the next big product revamp. Jan's said the HVX won't change until next year at the earliest, so I really don't see any impending move to 1/2".
How about a 1/2 inch DVX100 that shoots NTSC only widescreen native to P2 or other memory /hard drive (no tape).
Eliminating the tape drive would save some money and make it more reliable.
1/2 inch chips would make the image better and the possibility to make color better by not sticking to the DV specs. I am sure not all of us need HD all the time, so it would position it below the HVX200 and they can thow in some niceitys, or non-standard things like widescreen setting and scope setting for real film crop look.
:undecided