I have a feeling that .......

Cees Mutsaers

Cees Mutsaers

Veteran
Panasonic put the HVX200 on the drawing board. The main problem with HD cams in this price range is the lack off low light sensitivity wich gives noise. Some cams have it more than others (the HVX seems to be the worst in this respect). I think Pana is developing a new cam with "half inch" sized CCD's !!!
It will be a major breakthrough in handhold HD cams and Panasonic will be leading again. Hopefully they update the LCD/EV as well (including flip frame).
What do you guys think ????? Will they call it the HVX300 or HVX400 ??
 
Read the title of the thread !!!! It is just a hunch. I think the pixcel count will not change based on other cams in the panasonic range. So what can panasonic do (hardware wise) to significantly improve the HVX compared to the new cams of other brands without being a threat for the HPX500 ??? The only thing I can think of is increasing the CCD size to half an inch. I am not sure if it will have major implications for the lens system. I think somewhere in 2008 Panasonic has to come with a new product to stay leading or even in the race.
 
Panasonic could introduce a 1/2" version of the HVX-200, but in terms of improved of low light performance, my guess is that it would provide around 1 F-Stop (+6dB) improvement over the 1/3" CCD.

Going to 2/3" should, in theory, offer about 2 F-Stops (+12dB) improvement over 1/3".

Keep in mind that all of this is a ROUGH estimate and other factors come into play that would change the final result.


As for a 1/2" HVX-???, I don't think anyone has any thing to point to, to say it's coming...


Bob Diaz
 
The 2/3" HPX500 shows about 2 stops more sensitivity over the 1/3" HVX200, so your numbers are fairly spot on.

But -- this is only relevant *if all other elements stay equal*. As in, equivalent pixel count, and equivalent sensor type (CMOS or CCD) and equivalent sensor scanning method (interlaced or progressive). If Panasonic were to go from the 1/3" HVX to a 1920x1080 1/2" chip, with all other things being equal, you'd see overall sensitivity DROP by at least 1 stop, maybe 2 stops. And if they went to CMOS, you'd see another drop of probably at least another stop. And the only way to overcome that would be to scan interlaced, which means bye-bye variable frame rates. And if they went CMOS, that'd mean "hello wobble."

It's very, very, very difficult to predict how these things would perform based on an incomplete picture of what technology would be used.

I don't see Panasonic going anywhere near 1/2". They jumped straight past that to 2/3" for the HPX500. I'd like to see 'em to stick with CCDs and avoid CMOS until the whole wobble and lousy-sensitivity issues get sorted out. But frankly I don't expect a lot of action on the middle end, I expect 'em to focus their energies on the much-more-lagging low end. They need to get something HD that's less expensive than the HVX200 out there; right now there's a huge gaping hole in the product line at the low end of the price scale. Early 2007 saw 'em revamp the larger cameras, so I'd expect the DVC30/DVC60/DVX lineup is probably where we'll see the next big product revamp. Jan's said the HVX won't change until next year at the earliest, so I really don't see any impending move to 1/2".
 
I think Panasonic has to come up with something because the competitors are catching up really fast. The fact that the HVX has some more noise issues can be solved with the half inch CCDs (1 stop is already enough and gives the HVX just the cutting edge it needs) while keeping the advantages of progressive scan, VF rates, the nice DVCproHD codec with 4:2:2 colour resolution etc. etc. And yes Jan told that an update would not be due before 2008 but that is already really soon !!!!! Product development takes a lot of time (I know as a production engineer) so they have to be working already on it now even if the update will be there near the end of 2008 !!!!
 
because the competitors are catching up really fast.
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Well, who knows... the HVX has been a smash hit for Panasonic, so one school of thought is "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

Obviously the Sony XDCAM EX could influence things. If it looks and works really well, and bites into HVX sales, then I guess they'd respond in kind. But if it turns out like the V1U (which wobbles and is slow, and our community seems to be nearly entirely disinterested in) then why would Panasonic have to change what they're offering?

Frankly I'd like to see a shoulder-mount HVX. The only thing I like about the JVC HD100 is the form factor; the HPX500 is fantastic but not in the same price league. A shoulder-mount HVX (even at 1/3" chips) would be killer. Sony's bringing out a shoulder-mount version of their HDV V1U, so that would seem to indicate greater manufacturer awareness of the need for low-cost HD shoulder-mount cams.

I don't really see the sensitivity issue as anything to worry about. You're talking about others catching up, but -- who? The Canon and JVC are in the same general ballpark as the HVX when it comes to sensitivity, and the V1U is about 1.5 stops slower. If the EX uses 1/2" CMOS with 1440x1080, it'll probably be a full stop slower than the HVX200. If it uses 1920x1080 CMOS, it'll probably be 1.5 stops slower.

As for noise -- well, we'd all like cleaner noise performance. But the HVX, HD100, and Canons are all roughly in the same boat as far as noise, delivering comparable amounts (with the Canon's differing in texture); only the Sony shows noticeably less noise (but the Sonys are slower, so that's the price you pay).
 
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Cees Mutsaers said:
I think Panasonic has to come up with something because the competitors are catching up really fast.
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Which competitors are "catching up really fast" with what cams, codec and what price point?

I agree that I do not like the noise issues with the HVX200.

But, you started by emphasizing that your OP was a "hunch," and now you "assert" the competitors are catching up "real fast."

Show me the beef.
 
Take_1 said:
How about a different imager like the new 3000?
Click to expand...

With the 3000 they give with one hand, and take away with the other. The 3000 sounds all giddy to a lot of people because it's 1920x1080 chips, but do you notice what you lose with that? No 720p mode. No variable frame rates. It's an interlaced chipset because that's what you have to do to get decent sensitivity out of tiny pixels like that. That's why the Canon and Sony Z1 use interlaced chips too. If Panasonic went to a dense-pixel imager like the 3000 uses, they'd have to go to interlaced scanning in order to get any sort of decent sensitivity out of it. And if they did that, you're going to run into compromises that HVX buyers wouldn't be too comfortable accepting -- no progressive scan? Only simulated progressive scan? Losing 1/2 your vertical resolution when running at faster than 30fps? Would HVX buyers really want that?

I doubt it. Maybe they'd make a new camera like that if the news stations demanded it, but it wouldn't be an HVX, it'd be more like a smaller version of the HPX3000 (or, well, bluntly put, it'd be more like the XLH1 or Z1U).
 
Barry_Green said:
Frankly I'd like to see a shoulder-mount HVX. The only thing I like about the JVC HD100 is the form factor; ..........
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Absolutely, totally, 100% yes. Amongst all the debates and disagreements about cameras there seems to be a rare unanimity about this - a camera the weight and size of the HVX200 needs a shoulder mount form factor for hand held use, and exactly the same criticism can be said about the Z1. Whereas JVC do seem to have got that right.

But shoulder mount needn't mean interchangeable lens, and equally a fixed lens needn't mean servo controls. (Something the EX looks set to prove.) And with the JVC camera the interchangeability comes at the cost of a tight standard lens (5.5mm) which I'd happily exchange for the lens of the Z1 or HVX, especially in a manual version.

As for "Which competitors are "catching up really fast" ......." the obvious answer must be the EX, and many may feel that in some areas it threatens to overtake the HVX, let alone catch up. But........ it's in form factor for handheld use that it promises to disappoint IMO, being seemingly even larger than the Z1.

As for what's been said about sensitivity, then I also agree with Barrys qualification "*if all other elements stay equal*" with reference to chip sizes etc. It is conceivable, even likely, that 2 dimensional pixel shifting comes with a price in terms of noise and artifacting introduced in the additional processing that requires. Go to 1280x720 native imagers and whilst individual pixel sizes indeed get smaller, less processing manipulation needs to be done - all other elements DON'T stay equal.

Whilst true 1080 resolutions seem the way forward in high end cameras, especially with 1080p/24 support in Blu-Ray/HD-DVD, 720p may be a far better compromise for the foreseeable future for all 1/3" models.
 
A shoulder mount is nice but that is just cosmetical and there are already solution for that on the market. I still think that a logical update would be the half inch CCDs (I am not talking about CMOS, other pixcel count etc.). The good things of the HVX will be preserved while the low light/noise issue which all HD cams in this price range suffer from (you mention it yourself Barry) will be improved and surpass the competion.
 
I've been working with the HVX for about a year and a half now, and I believe I know where it can and cannot go.

Nowadays, if you have a 35mm adaptor, decent lights, a good tripod, dv grade dollies, cranes, etc, and, of course a GOOD SCRIPT, GOOD ACTORS and a GOOD TEAM, your movie, with an HVX200, has very good chance to look close to 35mm film quality. I love to use car analogies: With an HVX and all the above described elements, its like one is driving a Civic Type R vs a Ferrari. If you take on the Ferrari on Big, Long Straights, you'll definetly lose. But if you go to a familiar route, with lots of technical turns that require skill, you have a chance. 28 Days later was shot with a XL1, not even an XL2. The XL1 had pixel shifted SD chips!

However, I would, of course, like to drive a Ferrari. I would love to show the lucky Ferrari drivers what I could do with that car, and smoke them with the skill I learned driving my Civic.

I hope that, with the introduction of the RED (Which is probably the Nissan Skyline R of cameras- discrete and, with the proper tuning, can take on any Ferrari or Porche on the market), we are going to see the current camera makers come up, on the HVX price range, with Subaru Impreza WRX performance cameras... The HPX500 is, in my view, the first "Subaru Impreza" of this new batch of cameras.

Concerning the "New HVX", lets not forget how strongly Panasonic is pushing P2. The HVX IS the Trojan horse for P2. It is the camera they sell the most, and it is also the HVX crowd, the Independents and small budget/producers that are pressuring the independent and corporate software and hardware broadcast developers to support the format... Before the HVX, what support did you have for P2? So I believe Panasonic is NOT going to neglect the introduction level camera, and, I believe, will come up with one killer product for the price range (like they did with the HVX), because, like Hardrive said, there's new competition coming.

WIth sony's EX camera, there's a direct solid state competitor. So the "New HVX" has to continue to be something special. The HVX was designed with us in mind, and lets not forget the survey Panasonic made with the HVX on their website. They are listening to us, content creators and Independent filmmakers. The "New HVX", when it comes out, should continue to be a camera that is done with the filmmaker in mind. Its what took them there (with the DVX), and its a formula that's got them winning, and ressurrected their P2 format.

GIve me a more powerfull engine, Panasonic! I want to challenge the Ferrari's in some straights- not all- but enough for me to stay close and smoke them on the corners! I don't want to stay only on mountain or off road type courses... I want to be able to chalenge them in some grand prix circuits...How? :) :

- HD-SDI
- Higher Resolution CCD's
- 1/2 inch enough
- Image flip
- Same Weight as current model (for me to be able to use my stabilizers and support gear)
- Variable frame rates, and NTSC/PAL compatible
-Longer zoom
-3x P2 slots
-SD card recording for proxies
- In House 35 MM adaptor developed exclusively for NEW HVX. Panasonic has an Excelent D-SLR. Its called the L1. Its developing unique lenses for the still camera. Why not develop unique LEICA lenses for a "NEW HVX" ?

- Higher resolution LCD (Use sony's PSP screen! I believe its manufactured by sharp?)

Very long post/rant. And sorry about this car thing... I'm in the process of buying a new one, so it just comes trough my mind :)

Exciting times!
 
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Cees Mutsaers said:
A shoulder mount is nice but that is just cosmetical and there are already solution for that on the market.
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Sorry - but I must disagree strongly. Shoulder mount is far from cosmetic if you do any amount of handheld filming, and I know of at least two people who have suffered manual handling injuries (strain on the wrist) that have resulted from prolonged handheld use of a Z1. (The people concerned find the matter very far from 'cosmetic'.)

As for solutions already on the market, I assume you must be referring to shoulder braces. I don't consider them a full answer by a long way. Generally they take a certain time to rig, greatly lengthen the time taken to go from handheld working to tripod, add bulk to the rig (undesirable if a reason for the use of a 1/3" camera is for discreetness or small size), and do nothing to address the problem of the entire bulk of the camera being in front of the shooter - much better for most of it to be out of the way beside the head. (As with the JVC cameras.)

And why should it be necessary to spend extra money to try to solve a problem which needn't exist anyway?
 
All right!!! Now we are talking about Marketing instead of tech.

I love the car analogy.

In Autocross racing, Miatas typically finish very close to the time of the Porsches. (road course is a different matter)

A Miata was made for that stuff.

Just the same with the HVX.
 
I think you have to many wishes !


SPZ said:
I've been working with the HVX for about a year and a half now, and I believe I know where it can and cannot go.

Nowadays, if you have a 35mm adaptor, decent lights, a good tripod, dv grade dollies, cranes, etc, and, of course a GOOD SCRIPT, GOOD ACTORS and a GOOD TEAM, your movie, with an HVX200, has very good chance to look close to 35mm film quality. I love to use car analogies: With an HVX and all the above described elements, its like one is driving a Civic Type R vs a Ferrari. If you take on the Ferrari on Big, Long Straights, you'll definetly lose. But if you go to a familiar route, with lots of technical turns that require skill, you have a chance. 28 Days later was shot with a XL1, not even an XL2. The XL1 had pixel shifted SD chips!

However, I would, of course, like to drive a Ferrari. I would love to show the lucky Ferrari drivers what I could do with that car, and smoke them with the skill I learned driving my Civic.

I hope that, with the introduction of the RED (Which is probably the Nissan Skyline R of cameras- discrete and, with the proper tuning, can take on any Ferrari or Porche on the market), we are going to see the current camera makers come up, on the HVX price range, with Subaru Impreza WRX performance cameras... The HPX500 is, in my view, the first "Subaru Impreza" of this new batch of cameras.

Concerning the "New HVX", lets not forget how strongly Panasonic is pushing P2. The HVX IS the Trojan horse for P2. It is the camera they sell the most, and it is also the HVX crowd, the Independents and small budget/producers that are pressuring the independent and corporate software and hardware broadcast developers to support the format... Before the HVX, what support did you have for P2? So I believe Panasonic is NOT going to neglect the introduction level camera, and, I believe, will come up with one killer product for the price range (like they did with the HVX), because, like Hardrive said, there's new competition coming.

WIth sony's EX camera, there's a direct solid state competitor. So the "New HVX" has to continue to be something special. The HVX was designed with us in mind, and lets not forget the survey Panasonic made with the HVX on their website. They are listening to us, content creators and Independent filmmakers. The "New HVX", when it comes out, should continue to be a camera that is done with the filmmaker in mind. Its what took them there (with the DVX), and its a formula that's got them winning, and ressurrected their P2 format.

GIve me a more powerfull engine, Panasonic! I want to challenge the Ferrari's in some straights- not all- but enough for me to stay close and smoke them on the corners! I don't want to stay only on mountain or off road type courses... I want to be able to chalenge them in some grand prix circuits...How? :) :

- HD-SDI
- Higher Resolution CCD's
- 1/2 inch enough
- Image flip
- Same Weight as current model (for me to be able to use my stabilizers and support gear)
- Variable frame rates, and NTSC/PAL compatible
-Longer zoom
-3x P2 slots
-SD card recording for proxies
- In House 35 MM adaptor developed exclusively for NEW HVX. Panasonic has an Excelent D-SLR. Its called the L1. Its developing unique lenses for the still camera. Why not develop unique LEICA lenses for a "NEW HVX" ?

- Higher resolution LCD (Use sony's PSP screen! I believe its manufactured by sharp?)

Very long post/rant. And sorry about this car thing... I'm in the process of buying a new one, so it just comes trough my mind :)

Exciting times!
Click to expand...
 
Cees Mutsaers said:
I think you have to many wishes !
Click to expand...

Not including the 35mm adapter suggestion, i do believe my wishes are realistic! At least for a 7000 USD camera. A bit more expensive than the HVX, for sure, but right up there and ready for the Sony and Canon response....

More HVX sales, and more HVX "2" sales, equals more P2 sales., equals bigger market share., and equals more DVCPRO HD decks sales and support gear sales...
It means more P2 gears, more Panasonic monitors, more HPX500 sales and hpx2000 sales, etc... News stations nowadays use more and more dv size cameras for the ease of transportation, relative low cost vs danger of losing equipment, etc.

Panasonic started well with the HVX. The follow up should be a decisive deal maker for this level, to avoid market splitting in the solid state Broadcast world.


I'll also be looking for the " Red" effect. Sincerely, I'm personaly not concerned YET since this will not immediately affect the Broadcast World over here and for the type of work I'm in. However, and after the early adopters take care of the glitches and bugs of the beginning, and the quality stuff starts to come out (that's in about a year or 2) EVERYONE with a small, middle to big size production house will want one- me included. 23k is not that hard to find... If it performs well on real world circunstances, I will certainly go for it.

And with the semi-announced flexibility of RED's software, allowing variable frame rates and different modes of recording with different installs, Panasonic and the others most certainly come with a new development plan.

However, If In 2 years time, Panasonic introduces a 1920x1080 p, variable frame rate, cinegamma enabled camera with interchangeable lenses, with 2/3 ccd's, and recording AVC Intra AND DVCpro HD, at the pricepoint of the HPX, I would go Panasonic. I love their take on camera picture and color, I love P2 (invested on the system), I like dvcpro HD, and, like any other businessman, like local support.

This, however, is not a wish. Actually, its how I figure ( in a market growth and evolution perspective) Panasonic should go in order to maintain its professional market share, after Red's introduction and consolidation.

RED is a small company, so their manufacturing capabilities are low (at the moment). But that should change, if demand is as high as it seems. They have many high profile people from hollywood involved, and I wouldn't be surprised if they became active investors on the system...
 
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How about an evolution to the HVX that has
2/3 Chip...
Great light Senistivity...
No Tape drive...
Shoulder Mount...
Intercha ngable lenses....
All the things this whole thread asks for...
Oh, yeah it's already out
ITS CALLED THE AG-HPX500
The HVX is AMAZING for a palmcorder, but if you want a PRO camera, get the PRO camera. I have an HVX and I LOVE it, but I shoot more on Full sized shoulder mount cameras with interchangable lenses. The HVX is what it is, and for what it is it is GREAT!!!!
If you want it to be something else, do what the professionals do, and spend the money on the camera that you want it to be. It is here, and I have shot with it. The HVX is not even in the same class, and that is fine, because the price is in a different class. Ive shot with most of the handycam style cameras (ones that you shoot with your hands - not shoulder) and in the "same" category and pricepoint, there are no cameras that are surpassing the HVX.
It is a Great camera, and a superb value.
But it will not soon be something that it is currently not. You could add those features, but there is a balance in there, with cost. The HVX is the Pro-Sumer introductory line, and it will continue to be, and there is nothing wrong with that.
 
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