GH5 How interested are you in a GH6 anymore?

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The 2019 Mac pro definitely LOOKS faster than the m1 Mac mini. And the g5 looks a lot like the 2019 Mac pro. The disk drives sort of give it away, but I'm talking about n00bs
 
Actually, I was thinking of a G3 - so yeah, probably.

But I also think that if you ask people which they think is faster, a computer the size of a book or a computer the size of a mini fridge, they might think about why you're asking that question and then think about their answer.
 
Do we really still associate size with speed? Don't a lot of consumers view desktops like their crappy Dell computers at work and laptops as typically much better?

There is the perspective of desktops being fast from video editor or gamer perspectives but then there is the 99% of other people impression which are the crappy computers at work from Dell or HP. In my experience if I walk into a company and they have a desktop sitting in a cubicle its probably a hunk of junk.

Those that actually know the MP know it was a higher end expensive machine and are basing their assumption of speed on the price and target market more so than the size of it.
 


When I look at a chart like this all I really care about is the light blue part which are the higher end cameras. Look at how sad the sales were in 2003. This reflects my own experience when I went to the Academy of Art University in San Francisco. Very few people I went to school with had their own cameras. They were there to use the gear at the school. This was in 1997. Myself and one other film student had our own cameras. Mine was crappy and his was a Sony 3 chip DV camera that was the envy of all of us. The next year I bought a Canon XL1 and a lot of classmates used my camera so they didn't have to rent gear from the school.

Some of the photography students had their own cameras that shot stills only.

Clearly the dark blue section saw a spike and then a dip again. To me that matches with the industry at the time. 2009 is when the 7D and GH1 came out. Both of which completely changed how people could shoot video. Before that there was the 5D but it wasn't as affordable. The couple of years before that is when we finally started to see affordable Canon camcorders able to shoot 24p video. Before that it was the higher end HDV cameras capable of that and out of reach of budding film makers. 24p started the spark of indie film making and the 7D, GH1 and similar cameras exploded it. It was also around that time that people started actually finding a use for video cameras. Americas Funniest Home Video and eventually YouTube. Before that video cameras were something families occasionally used for vacations and sports. They never did much with the video after shooting it. Most people did not buy editing systems and learn hoe to edit video. They hooked the camera up to their TV and sometimes watched the video. Most had no way to share the video with others.

Online video changed that and that helped the spike of bottom feeder cameras. Then yes Smartphones started to kill that market almost as fast as it started.

Realistically however it just returned back to where it was before. I know that goes against the mantra of corporate greed but we really have to look at charts like this from multiple perspectives and not just the sky is falling. DSLR sales are much better than they were a few decades ago. The bottom feeder camera sales are down but those were the crappy $100 and $200 point and shoot cameras and little camcorders. I say good riddance to those cameras. They had zero use for us pros and without a doubt Smartphones have replaced the occasional use of those type of cameras. None of us will miss that market at all. Manufacturers should be happy to not have to produce such garbage to suck in a few dollars of profit per unit.

Which brings up another point. This chart is about units shipped and not profit of each company. Selling a dozen or more bottom feeder cameras to make up the profit margin of a pro camera really skews what this chart really means.

We also have to factor in another massive cultural shift that started around 2012. Cinema cameras that were affordable. A lot of those that jump started the massive DSLR film making era got a taste of cinematic and wanted more. When BMD came out wit their first cinema camera in 2012 the shift started slowly but kept picking up speed. Eventually RED, ARRI, BMD and other independent cinema camera companies took away a good portion of those that made the DSLR era a big hit. I know A lot of GH5 users that switched to a P4K and will likely never look back. For a lot of film makers cinema cameras is where they always wanted to be. The 24p camcorders and DSLRS were the stepping stones to get there. Cinema cameras are here to stay and we have forever lost a chunk of that market to those cameras. Has nothing to do with smartphones but those moving to better options.

The thing with this chart is I don't think it factors in BMD and others. I don't think it includes RED or ARRI either. Thats a pretty good chunk of the market to ignore. Especially as more of us move to cinema cameras. They don't paint a full picture at all and can be interpreted in a very skewed way.

I see five video markets going forward.

1. Bottom feeders - that market is dead. Give up and move on. Smartphones won here and the rightly should. Being able to always have a camera in our pocket and instantly share on social media will mean 100000x more value than anything else.

2. Video producers - The ones that were using the 3 chip 1/3" and 1/2" video cameras to produce real life video like seminars, sports, weddings, corporate video and so forth. They will always be around. Some moved to DSLRs and found a way to make them work. They will likely never move to cinema cameras.

3. Broadcast - The big expensive cameras typically made by either Sony or Panasonic. The ones used for pro sports, TV studio productions and so forth. Should Sony be the only player in the game if Panasonic gives up? Will the BMD broadcast cameras finally take off in this market? We shall see. Thing about this market is it doesn't invest very often. TV stations would buy cameras and use them for many years. They were expensive but didn't sell every year.

4. Film makers - Many have moved on to cinema cameras where they should be. The Traditional camera companies are going to have to do a lot more to compete with cinema cameras. Like a true raw cinema camera with accurate AF and IBIS would actually appeal to many over the BMD cameras. Panasonic is getting closer but still not 100% there. They try too hard to appeal to a hybrid market and perhaps that is flawed now. Forget external raw and record raw directly to a SSD like BMD does. Panasonic can learn from why the P4k killed the GH5S. Give film makers what they want and more.

5. The Hybrids - People like me that shoot pro stills and pro video. Part of why hybrids also saw some success. Some photographers finally started dipping into video production and some video producers started dipping into photography. Camcorders, broadcast and cinema will never make sense here.

I think the #2, #3, #5 and #5 are big enough for Panasonic to make affordable cameras that work for a lot of different users. #5 is a bit tricky because photographers do want more MP and sensitivity at the same time. M43 will never really be great at doing both together. But they can totally nail #2, $3 and #4 and still appeal to some #5's. Some nature photographers do actually prefer m43 for the extra reach and compact telephoto lenses. Thats where OM sees a lot of its success since very few buy it for video.

I would also like to know how much these charts include lens shipments? In the past we bought new point and shoot cameras because we wanted a 6x zoom vs the 3x zoom we had to better reach a kids recital. When we shifted to DSLRs we stopped buying new bodies but we started buying new glass instead to overcome new challenges. Its another example of a shift and not so much a huge loss of revenue. Compared to 2003 I see people buying a ton of lenses today and I would say that market is much larger. Even used lenses are now kind of hard to find. When I first started buying Canon FD lenses people were practically giving them away. Now they go for high premiums and sold out in a lot of places. The shift from integrated to changeable lenses shifted a lot of the market. Canon may only sell a body for $2k to a user every five or more years but they are likely selling a lot more in glass to that user. Thats why I think just looking at camera sales today is a rather inaccurate and pointless view of data.
 
Actually, I was thinking of a G3 - so yeah, probably.

But I also think that if you ask people which they think is faster, a computer the size of a book or a computer the size of a mini fridge, they might think about why you're asking that question and then think about their answer.

Yes but apple will put 4 m1 max chips in a mini fridge tower and it will run circles around the MBPs. If the internals are matched, then the size is indicative of greater power (and cooling power). So, the size = power bias holds water. You just need to know something about the internals
 
What about the trash cans then? They need to be included in this conversation as well.

They were barely bigger than a Mac Mini (actually not even as wide but just taller) and way more powerful before M1.
 
Do we really still associate size with speed? Don't a lot of consumers view desktops like their crappy Dell computers at work and laptops as typically much better?

Dunno. I've never worked in an office. The towers have higher power budgets and cooling capacity, so they have structural advantages. The company probably updates them as infrequently as possible. But the age of the machine is probably recognizable by the aestheric design. Just like with cars. Trends in arbitrary fashion/design choices date the machinery
 
What about the trash cans then? They need to be included in this conversation as well.

They were barely bigger than a Mac Mini (just taller) and way more powerful before M1.

I'd have to ask a n00b. My guess is the trash can still wins. But the reason I reached for the g5 was that it is larger and older/slower, so an even clearer example imo
 
Are we also sure we are not being fedf BS about camera sales decline to inflate the prices of cameras? Sort of the supply chain BS we hear now so companies don't have to cut executive bonuses or pay people more. Camera companies want to sell less for more and thats precisely what they have done. Those of us buying cameras started out at $500, then it was $1,000 and then $2,000. We are now perfectly ok forking over $2,500 to $3,500 for a body and no longer freak out that a f2.8 zoom is $2,500. That kind of seems like inflated prices so camera companies could focus on selling quality over quantity which may make better sense for them.

Thats why I question a lot of the doom and gloom articles and these pointless charts. They are only telling us units shipped. Not revenue of each company vs their costs. If a company like Panasonic can now design and sell two or three killer models vs a dozen lower end models that means lower manufacturing and R&D cost for the company. Each product variation adds to assembly line costs. Its always better to make a profit on a few great products vs a bunch or products.

I think we have all been herded into this mindset that camera companies are suffering and that justifies the higher costs. We accept it because we still want these new cameras. GH prices sure have jumped since the GH1. Why? Is the sensor and DSP suddenly that much more expensive for Panasonic to make? Are they simply charging more now because the industry is?

Of course camera units shipped are down. Companies have stopped making bottom feeder cameras and therefore ship less products that each earn more profit. Seems like a much better position to be in.

Perhaps I'm wrong wit hall of this and thats fine. Happy to be wrong. I worked for a manufacturing company however and its not cheap to manufacture dozens of different low cost products. Part of the inflation problems we have now are manufactured. Companies want to ship less thats wasted and produce less with less raw materials. They get to drive up costs to consumers because of this and continue earning record profits. All while telling people they can't have a raise.

If BMD can innovate and constantly grow as an only 350 mil/year company then they can all do that.
 
Dunno. I've never worked in an office. The towers have higher power budgets and cooling capacity, so they have structural advantages. The company probably updates them as infrequently as possible. But the age of the machine is probably recognizable by the aestheric design. Just like with cars. Trends in arbitrary fashion/design choices date the machinery

Cars are not slower if they are bigger and older however. In fact I can probably go faster with my Dads old 65 Chevy Impala SS than I could with my 2017 Subaru Outback. Computers are really bad at holding value no matter the size or how pretty they are. They are practically outdated the moment you open the box. Desktops are also associated with old school computers. The way it used to be.
 
I'd have to ask a n00b. My guess is the trash can still wins. But the reason I reached for the g5 was that it is larger and older/slower, so an even clearer example imo

I think overall I will agree with you but only to the point of millennials (maybe some of Z) being the last generation to be this kind of noob.

I just don't see most of Z and Alpha and beyond being unaware after being born into what they were and will be born into.

If they don't live secluded without access to a network of information - or simply people, friends - they will constantly, on a daily basis 24-7 have access to information and technology campaigns and be exposed to data and will know about computers.

Meaning...instead of asking to guess which one they think is more powerful, faster based on the size of the enclosure, they will ask about the specifications of the hardware (like their iPhones; people know the models, are aware of the improvements over the years).

Now I might be giving people too much credit but Apple and YouTube and social media have trained enough minds in the world to be much more tech savvy than previous generations.
 
I think overall I will agree with you but only to the point of millennials (maybe some of Z) being the last generation to be this kind of noob.

I just don't see most of Z and Alpha and beyond being unaware after being born into what they were and will be born into.

If they don't live secluded without access to a network of information - or simply people, friends - they will constantly, on a daily basis 24-7 have access to information and technology campaigns and be exposed to data and will know about computers.

Meaning...instead of asking to guess which one they think they is more powerful, faster based on the size of the enclosure, they will ask about the specifications of the hardware. Now I might be giving people too much credit but Apple and YouTube and social media have trained enough minds in the world to be much more tech savvy than previous generations.

I agree with this. Its getting much harder to sell older computers. Younger people don't buy used stuff anymore. I'm trying to sell a 2018 Mac mini I7 wit ha Vega 56 eGPU and nobody wants it. Most young people want a M1 MBA. They don't want a desktop, period. They want fast, sleek and portable and brand new.

Finally had a guy reach out to me on Marketplace about my Mac mini today. He wanted to do a trade for a PC gaming laptop. He can't sell that either. Was hoping to do a trade but I already have a PC gaming laptop that sits here collecting dust.

Young people today understand enough about specs to know if something is older and no longer as nice of an experience.
 
Cars are not slower if they are bigger and older however. In fact I can probably go faster with my Dads old 65 Chevy Impala SS than I could with my 2017 Subaru Outback. Computers are really bad at holding value no matter the size or how pretty they are. They are practically outdated the moment you open the box. Desktops are also associated with old school computers. The way it used to be.

I think the size association is really about strength. And the strength of the computer is really about speed

If you know what you're looking at, like you know that ssds are smaller and faster, then you're well-informed and not going to be fooled. But a n00b would probably assume that a larger hard drive can hold more data, at least
 
).

Now I might be giving people too much credit but Apple and YouTube and social media have trained enough minds in the world to be much more tech savvy than previous generations.

Sure but show them 2 trucks and ask which has more hauling capacity. They'll probably say the bigger one. (Which is probably true? I mean, there you go.)

A millennial or maybe even gen z waiter at a wedding last year was really impressed by my a7siii and asked me what the specs were and if it shot 4k. I don't think that shooting 4K in itself is a very impressive spec anymore. And the a7siii isn't a very impressive looking camera, besides being a camera and not a phone.

Actually - I had a 95mm variable ND filter on my 24mm at another wedding last year (with a step-up ring) and a groomsman commented that it was a very impressive lens. He was looking at it head-on, so I'm sure it was the large diameter filter thay impressed him and that he thought it was part of the lens

I've had people give my 28-135 a double take, which is the lens with the 95mm thread I needed that filter for
 
Young people today understand enough about specs to know if something is older and no longer as nice of an experience.

Sure but I'm talking about a situation where they know nothing but the size of the tool, and you want their impression regarding its speed.

A laptop, like a phone, is useful to them because it's small and portable. But if you show up with a big camera and you're doing the heavy lifting...

Or look at the Ps5. I looked up "how large is ps5" and you see headlines like "
Nobody knows what to do with the big, honkin' PS5 - Polygon" "
PS5 size comparison: is the PlayStation 5 too big? | TechRadar"
 
Sure but I'm talking about a situation where they know nothing but the size of the tool, and you want their impression regarding its speed.

A laptop, like a phone, is useful to them because it's small and portable. But if you show up with a big camera and you're doing the heavy lifting...

Or look at the Ps5. I looked up "how large is ps5" and you see headlines like "
Nobody knows what to do with the big, honkin' PS5 - Polygon" "
PS5 size comparison: is the PlayStation 5 too big? | TechRadar"

I get it but how many are out there buying a used MP vs a new M1 Mac? Likely not very many or any at all. As cool as the MP tower is it only seemed to ever attract those in the know and not noobs. That tower largely sits dead at this point no matter how cool it looks. A few nerds buy them to gut them out for a PC build or the true nerds to house a Mac mini and eGPU but seriously the thing is dead.
 
I believe that CIPA numbers are official and confirmed via all sources, including the various manufacturer's income statements.

As to the smartphone onslaught, it's a continuous and undeterred advance. The smartphone makers don't care about the stand-along camera market. Their competition are other smartphone makers. And, as I had mentioned, that forces a continuous improvement on all fronts. Insofar as the camera modules go, the performances are catching up with the ILC's, while having an added advantage of always being in its owner's pocket/purse.

One could make this assumption - every year the mobile cameras make a $50 advance. Today, they're like a $500 camera; next year, like a $550; the year after, like a $600. And so on and so forth. New 200 MPX sensors from Samsung and Omnivision may not be as good as Sony A7RIV's 61 MPX one but, at a point blank/portrait range, the vast majority of shooters won't mind. And then ILC's get left over for the pros only. Like Slim Aarons and Barry Feinstein.
 
If you want to set up people for failure to prove your point then you'll be right.

Well, he didn't say, "what a big lens! It must be old and shitty"

Of course, waves have been made with the miniaturization of good lenses

but still,, if you want a really high-performing zoom with a large focal length range, it's going to be huge by comparison to a shitty lens or a lens with a smaller range or a prime. So, the bias is not without merit. Fast primes are larger than slow primes, etc
 
I think the analogies and anecdotes about and between cameras/lenses and computers have to be separated because they just don't apply the same way, with the same people.

Computers and screens and similar devices are more a part of everyday life than photography, filmmaking lenses.
 
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