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When I look at a chart like this all I really care about is the light blue part which are the higher end cameras. Look at how sad the sales were in 2003. This reflects my own experience when I went to the Academy of Art University in San Francisco. Very few people I went to school with had their own cameras. They were there to use the gear at the school. This was in 1997. Myself and one other film student had our own cameras. Mine was crappy and his was a Sony 3 chip DV camera that was the envy of all of us. The next year I bought a Canon XL1 and a lot of classmates used my camera so they didn't have to rent gear from the school.
Some of the photography students had their own cameras that shot stills only.
Clearly the dark blue section saw a spike and then a dip again. To me that matches with the industry at the time. 2009 is when the 7D and GH1 came out. Both of which completely changed how people could shoot video. Before that there was the 5D but it wasn't as affordable. The couple of years before that is when we finally started to see affordable Canon camcorders able to shoot 24p video. Before that it was the higher end HDV cameras capable of that and out of reach of budding film makers. 24p started the spark of indie film making and the 7D, GH1 and similar cameras exploded it. It was also around that time that people started actually finding a use for video cameras. Americas Funniest Home Video and eventually YouTube. Before that video cameras were something families occasionally used for vacations and sports. They never did much with the video after shooting it. Most people did not buy editing systems and learn hoe to edit video. They hooked the camera up to their TV and sometimes watched the video. Most had no way to share the video with others.
Online video changed that and that helped the spike of bottom feeder cameras. Then yes Smartphones started to kill that market almost as fast as it started.
Realistically however it just returned back to where it was before. I know that goes against the mantra of corporate greed but we really have to look at charts like this from multiple perspectives and not just the sky is falling. DSLR sales are much better than they were a few decades ago. The bottom feeder camera sales are down but those were the crappy $100 and $200 point and shoot cameras and little camcorders. I say good riddance to those cameras. They had zero use for us pros and without a doubt Smartphones have replaced the occasional use of those type of cameras. None of us will miss that market at all. Manufacturers should be happy to not have to produce such garbage to suck in a few dollars of profit per unit.
Which brings up another point. This chart is about units shipped and not profit of each company. Selling a dozen or more bottom feeder cameras to make up the profit margin of a pro camera really skews what this chart really means.
We also have to factor in another massive cultural shift that started around 2012. Cinema cameras that were affordable. A lot of those that jump started the massive DSLR film making era got a taste of cinematic and wanted more. When BMD came out wit their first cinema camera in 2012 the shift started slowly but kept picking up speed. Eventually RED, ARRI, BMD and other independent cinema camera companies took away a good portion of those that made the DSLR era a big hit. I know A lot of GH5 users that switched to a P4K and will likely never look back. For a lot of film makers cinema cameras is where they always wanted to be. The 24p camcorders and DSLRS were the stepping stones to get there. Cinema cameras are here to stay and we have forever lost a chunk of that market to those cameras. Has nothing to do with smartphones but those moving to better options.
The thing with this chart is I don't think it factors in BMD and others. I don't think it includes RED or ARRI either. Thats a pretty good chunk of the market to ignore. Especially as more of us move to cinema cameras. They don't paint a full picture at all and can be interpreted in a very skewed way.
I see five video markets going forward.
1. Bottom feeders - that market is dead. Give up and move on. Smartphones won here and the rightly should. Being able to always have a camera in our pocket and instantly share on social media will mean 100000x more value than anything else.
2. Video producers - The ones that were using the 3 chip 1/3" and 1/2" video cameras to produce real life video like seminars, sports, weddings, corporate video and so forth. They will always be around. Some moved to DSLRs and found a way to make them work. They will likely never move to cinema cameras.
3. Broadcast - The big expensive cameras typically made by either Sony or Panasonic. The ones used for pro sports, TV studio productions and so forth. Should Sony be the only player in the game if Panasonic gives up? Will the BMD broadcast cameras finally take off in this market? We shall see. Thing about this market is it doesn't invest very often. TV stations would buy cameras and use them for many years. They were expensive but didn't sell every year.
4. Film makers - Many have moved on to cinema cameras where they should be. The Traditional camera companies are going to have to do a lot more to compete with cinema cameras. Like a true raw cinema camera with accurate AF and IBIS would actually appeal to many over the BMD cameras. Panasonic is getting closer but still not 100% there. They try too hard to appeal to a hybrid market and perhaps that is flawed now. Forget external raw and record raw directly to a SSD like BMD does. Panasonic can learn from why the P4k killed the GH5S. Give film makers what they want and more.
5. The Hybrids - People like me that shoot pro stills and pro video. Part of why hybrids also saw some success. Some photographers finally started dipping into video production and some video producers started dipping into photography. Camcorders, broadcast and cinema will never make sense here.
I think the #2, #3, #5 and #5 are big enough for Panasonic to make affordable cameras that work for a lot of different users. #5 is a bit tricky because photographers do want more MP and sensitivity at the same time. M43 will never really be great at doing both together. But they can totally nail #2, $3 and #4 and still appeal to some #5's. Some nature photographers do actually prefer m43 for the extra reach and compact telephoto lenses. Thats where OM sees a lot of its success since very few buy it for video.
Actually, I was thinking of a G3 - so yeah, probably.
But I also think that if you ask people which they think is faster, a computer the size of a book or a computer the size of a mini fridge, they might think about why you're asking that question and then think about their answer.
Do we really still associate size with speed? Don't a lot of consumers view desktops like their crappy Dell computers at work and laptops as typically much better?
What about the trash cans then? They need to be included in this conversation as well.
They were barely bigger than a Mac Mini (just taller) and way more powerful before M1.
Dunno. I've never worked in an office. The towers have higher power budgets and cooling capacity, so they have structural advantages. The company probably updates them as infrequently as possible. But the age of the machine is probably recognizable by the aestheric design. Just like with cars. Trends in arbitrary fashion/design choices date the machinery
I'd have to ask a n00b. My guess is the trash can still wins. But the reason I reached for the g5 was that it is larger and older/slower, so an even clearer example imo
I think overall I will agree with you but only to the point of millennials (maybe some of Z) being the last generation to be this kind of noob.
I just don't see most of Z and Alpha and beyond being unaware after being born into what they were and will be born into.
If they don't live secluded without access to a network of information - or simply people, friends - they will constantly, on a daily basis 24-7 have access to information and technology campaigns and be exposed to data and will know about computers.
Meaning...instead of asking to guess which one they think they is more powerful, faster based on the size of the enclosure, they will ask about the specifications of the hardware. Now I might be giving people too much credit but Apple and YouTube and social media have trained enough minds in the world to be much more tech savvy than previous generations.
Cars are not slower if they are bigger and older however. In fact I can probably go faster with my Dads old 65 Chevy Impala SS than I could with my 2017 Subaru Outback. Computers are really bad at holding value no matter the size or how pretty they are. They are practically outdated the moment you open the box. Desktops are also associated with old school computers. The way it used to be.
).
Now I might be giving people too much credit but Apple and YouTube and social media have trained enough minds in the world to be much more tech savvy than previous generations.
Young people today understand enough about specs to know if something is older and no longer as nice of an experience.
Sure but I'm talking about a situation where they know nothing but the size of the tool, and you want their impression regarding its speed.
A laptop, like a phone, is useful to them because it's small and portable. But if you show up with a big camera and you're doing the heavy lifting...
Or look at the Ps5. I looked up "how large is ps5" and you see headlines like "
Nobody knows what to do with the big, honkin' PS5 - Polygon" "
PS5 size comparison: is the PlayStation 5 too big? | TechRadar"
If you want to set up people for failure to prove your point then you'll be right.