Coronavirus Impact

[Liam Hall]

I don't see why the relative population size of Sweden would change the relative death toll.

It's not just size that matters, it's density (insert own joke). Sweden is not New York, it's not London or Bergamo. Countries, cities are different and they are impacted differently by the virus.

In a year, we'll know if they should have done more or if we overreacted.

Maybe, which is why we shouldn't be overly harsh on those people making tough decisions for greater good. They shouldn't be hung out to dry if they simply made the best decision they could with the data they had. Of course, those that are trying to manipulate the crisis for personal gain against the national or international interest should be shamed, and that goes for Governments.

One drug (hydroxychloroquine) has shown effectiveness in a small Chinese study, but only if it's taken in the early stages of disease. But right now due to capacity constraints, nobody goes to the hospital or gets a test unless they're already seriously ill!

Yep, also shown effective in a small French study but still a long way off from being an approved treatment.

Finally, South Korea never closed their economy because they had robust testing and contact tracing systems in place that allowed them to quarantine clusters of patients before they could infect others. If we get our outbreak under control, we can do what they are doing.

The USA, like every country apart from Japan, has no chance of copying what the South Koreans have managed. If you've been to South Korea you'll understand why. They love rules and love adhering to them. It's like the country has OCD, it's so neat, tidy and well ordered. The rest of the world, not so much...

 

[ahalpert]

I largely agree with you but:

It's not just size that matters, it's density (insert own joke). Sweden is not New York, it's not London or Bergamo. Countries, cities are different and they are impacted differently by the virus.



Maybe, which is why we shouldn't be overly harsh on those people making tough decisions for greater good. They shouldn't be hung out to dry if they simply made the best decision they could with the data they had. Of course, those that are trying to manipulate the crisis for personal gain against the national or international interest should be shamed, and that goes for Governments.




Yep, also shown effective in a small French study but still a long way off from being an approved treatment.



The USA, like every country apart from Japan, has no chance of copying what the South Koreans have managed. If you've been to South Korea you'll understand why. They love rules and love adhering to them. It's like the country has OCD, it's so neat, tidy and well ordered. The rest of the world, not so much...

85% of Sweden lives in urban areas. A quarter of the country lives in Stockholm.

There are larger hydroxychloroquine studies underway. We'll sure feel dumb if we let a million people die, then find out we could have saved half of them!

I have no idea if we can emulate South Korea. But if we suppress our epidemic now, I'm certain we could do a better job of containment afterwards.

 

[jamedia.uk]

In a year, we'll know if they should have done more or if we overreacted.

In a year from now you will know if you over reacted. You can sit around and discuss it.
OTOH it is unlikely you will be here to know if you should have done more....

The trick is not to overwhelm the health services with a huge spike as then everything breaks down.

 

[Run&Gun]

I'm not sure if I mentioned this before or anyone else has, either. And I probably wouldn't have thought about it if my GF wasn't a paramedic and I asked her the other week if they had been busy(they typically are extremely busy in this county) and she said "No", which surprised me. People staying at home and not venturing out as much or working also cuts back on a lot of accidents that happen on a normal day. Think about how many resources just one bad traffic accident can eat up at a hospital.

 

[Liam Hall]

85% of Sweden lives in urban areas. A quarter of the country lives in Stockholm.

Yes, but Stockholm is not London or New York. It's a village by comparison.

There are larger hydroxychloroquine studies underway. We'll sure feel dumb if we let a million people die, then find out we could have saved half of them!

I agree. But I'm not a quack, so I'll let them decide what we are treated with.

I have no idea if we can emulate South Korea. But if we suppress our epidemic now, I'm certain we could do a better job of containment afterwards.

Yes, for sure.

 

[Liam Hall]

I'm not sure if I mentioned this before or anyone else has, either. And I probably wouldn't have thought about it if my GF wasn't a paramedic and I asked her the other week if they had been busy(they typically are extremely busy in this county) and she said "No", which surprised me. People staying at home and not venturing out as much or working also cuts back on a lot of accidents that happen on a normal day. Think about how many resources just one bad traffic accident can eat up at a hospital.

This was mentioned today in Cuomo's presser.

 

[ahalpert]

In a year from now you will know if you over reacted. You can sit around and discuss it.
OTOH it is unlikely you will be here to know if you should have done more....

The trick is not to overwhelm the health services with a huge spike as then everything breaks down.

I agree. I support the lockdown and erring on the side of caution. But I'm open to having a robust debate, especially since that's the best way to win people over.

 

[ahalpert]

Yes, but Stockholm is not London or New York. It's a village by comparison.




I agree. But I'm not a quack, so I'll let them decide what we are treated with.


Yes, for sure.

Milan has a smaller population than Stockholm and had a very bad outbreak. If we want to discount small populations, we might as well ignore Sweden altogether - it only has 10 million people.

We don't disagree about listening to experts regarding medicine. I was trying to say I support flattening the curve to give scientists and doctors more time to run experiments.

 

[Liam Hall]

Milan has a smaller population than Stockholm and had a very bad outbreak. If we want to discount small populations, we might as well ignore Sweden altogether - it only has 10 million people.

I'm not discounting small populations, just pointing out that places are different, and therefore the virus will have a different impact when it turns up. New York and London are both major international hubs, Milan has an old population for example. The Swedes are rolling the dice. It's ballsy for sure. I felt when the UK took the same course it was a mistake but have no idea whether it's a good call for Sweden, I hope it is but who knows?

We don't disagree about listening to experts regarding medicine. I was trying to say I support flattening the curve to give scientists and doctors more time to run experiments.

Agree. 100%.

 

[ahalpert]

It looks like some work is continuing by turning the camera around -

I saw a post yesterday looking for an Indian-American director/DP who could shoot scenes at home of their adolescent son (if they had one).

Then today I saw a post looking for doc shooters who are quarantined with a high school senior they could film for a doc about graduating high school during the pandemic.

Strange times.

 

[Cary Knoop]

Stanford is doing a serological test in Santa Clara, CA.
Finally, we can see how many people have or had the virus.
https://redcap.stanford.edu/surveys/index.php?s=FPM88N48HE

Other regions of the country will follow shortly.
Those serological tests are going to be a big game changer!

 

[ozmorphasis]

Stanford is doing a serological test in Santa Clara, CA.
Finally, we can see how many people have or had the virus.
https://redcap.stanford.edu/surveys/index.php?s=FPM88N48HE

Other regions of the country will follow shortly.
Those serological tests are going to be a big game changer!

Check that link Cary. It's not useful in its current state, the link that is.

 

[Cary Knoop]

Check that link Cary. It's not useful in its current state, the link that is.

It's already oversubscribed.

Here is the original text:
-----------------------------------------------------------

Santa Clara County COVID-19 Testing Study

**SANTA CLARA COUNTY RESIDENTS ONLY**
**ONLY ONE PARTICIPANT PER HOUSEHOLD**
**OPEN TO ALL AGES**
**Participants must complete survey AND attend one of our 3 drive-through testing sites for a fingerprick blood sample on Friday, April 3 or Saturday, April 4**

INFORMED CONSENT TO PARTICIPATE

Haga clic aquí para ver el consentimiento informado en español / 点击此处查看中文知情同意书 / Nhấn vào đây để xem sự đồng ý bằng tiếng Việt

DESCRIPTION: During this time of the coronavirus epidemic, information of how many residents in our community have (or have had and recovered from) COVID-19 is critical for guiding our public health response. We are conducting a public health survey to identify how common is coronavirus (COVID-19) in Santa Clara County. Your information will provide critical guidance for hospital capacity planning and policies such as shelter-in-place and social distancing. You are asked to participate by taking this survey and later visiting one of our three testing sites to provide a small blood sample from a fingerprick. Your specimens will be used for one purpose only: to determine if you have antibodies to COVID-19. Your samples will not be used for any other purpose without your consent, now or in the future.

RISKS AND BENEFITS: The risks from fingerprick are trivial and may include bleeding for individuals on blood thinners. We will minimize exposure to study personnel but there is a small risk of being infected with coronavirus from proximity to staff.

We cannot and do not guarantee or promise that you will receive any direct benefits from this study. The benefits are for improving and monitoring public health in our county.

TIME INVOLVEMENT: Your total participation in this experiment will take approximately 1 minute for the survey and 5 minutes for the fingerstick, not including travel time and lines at collection site.

PAYMENTS/REIMBURSEMENTS: You will receive a $10 gift card for participating.

WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF THE RESEARCH STUDY AND HOW WILL MY HEALTH INFORMATION BE UTILIZED IN THIS STUDY?

The information from your test results will be used to determine the prevalence of coronavirus in our community. Understanding the extent of the infection in our community is critically important for projecting and guiding public health and hospital preparation plans. The results of this research study may be presented at scientific or professional meetings or published in scientific journals. However, your identity will never be disclosed. You may choose to remain completely anonymous (in which case your test results will not be provided to you or anyone else), or to receive your test results (in which case we will collect your phone number and inform you if you test positive).

PARTICIPANT’S RIGHTS: If you understand this and have decided to participate in this project, please know your participation is voluntary and you have the right to withdraw your consent or discontinue participation at any time.

In addition, as a research participant you have the following rights. These rights include but are not limited to the participant's right to:

Be informed of the nature and purpose of the experiment;
Be given an explanation of the procedures to be followed in the medical experiment, and any drug or device to be utilized;
Be given a description of any attendant discomforts and risks reasonably to be expected;
Be given an explanation of any benefits to the subject reasonably to be expected, if applicable;
Be given a disclosure of any appropriate alternatives, drugs or devices that might be advantageous to the subject, their relative risks and benefits;
Be informed of the avenues of medical treatment, if any available to the subject after the experiment if complications should arise;
Be given an opportunity to ask questions concerning the experiment or the procedures involved;
Be instructed that consent to participate in the medical experiment may be withdrawn at any time and the subject may discontinue participation without prejudice;
Be given a copy of the signed and dated consent form;
Be given the opportunity to decide to consent or not to consent to a medical experiment without the intervention of any element of force, fraud, deceit, duress, coercion or undue influence on the subject's decision.

Independent Contact: If you are not satisfied with how this study is being conducted, or if you have any concerns, complaints, or general questions about the research or your rights as a participant, please contact the Stanford Institutional Review Board (IRB) to speak to someone independent of the research team at (650)-723-5244 or toll free at 1-866-680-2906. You can also write to the Stanford IRB, Stanford University, 1705 El Camino Real, Palo Alto, CA 94306.

FOR QUESTIONS ABOUT THE STUDY, please write us at scc.covid.study@gmail.com

 

[cyvideo]

If this is anywhere close to true things are starting to get very nasty, very concerning for international trust.

Chris Young

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-cries-foul-over-berlin-bound-masks-diverted-to-u-s-11585943440

 

[groveChuck]

What about using paper towels with a fluid like hydrogen peroxide?

Are you talking about skin or surfaces? I find peroxide more caustic on my skin than alcohol (which I just find drying).
Workaround hand sanitizer is 2/3 rubbing alcohol*, 1/3 aloe gel (I have to recheck that ratio, but I think that's it.) And I pour alcohol into a container of baby wipes.

And as we all know, sanitizer is faster and easier than singing Happy Birthday. Twice.
(which should you accidentally capture on video and post, you of course have to pay royalties. Twice.).

If you could just look at someone and tell immediately, it would make this all a lot easier.

Yeah, if only we were facing a zombie apocalypse instead, right?

Cold water is less effective or ineffective?

Hot water dissolves the lipids and fats on the skin that hold viruses and bacteria.

its my D600 - another 1985 camera that cant work out the time for itself.

Sam, breaking out the Betacam? Speaking of undead zombies...

As far as mask usage in Asia, it's more of a fashion statement.

Many Japanese have been germaphobic and wearing masks in crowded public places (Tokyo, subways) for what, 10, 15 years?

And until an effective vaccine (or cure) is available, if you just push the peak until later in the year, it will be actually counterproductive, as the virus spreads more rapidly in colder weather!

I heard a piece on NPR today, where a scientist said even if the rise slows down or flattens, it will spike in cold weather, this fall/winter.

~~~~~


* Regarding alcohol (rubbing, not DLD's preferred imbibing strain) and its availability- I went to the managers at my Walgreens and CVS drugstores and asked when their deliveries come. My Walgreens said Wed 10-11am. CVS Tues 5am.
CVS opens at 8am and says if you want something precious be there then. Or earlier. There will probably be a line.

I went to Walgreens Tues at noon (they said give the truck 2hrs to unload). At noon, the truck had not arrived, they said it was due between 1 and 2pm. I said so come at 3? They said yes.

I came back at 3 sharp. The truck which normally takes 1-2hrs to unload, had such a small load it had unloaded in 20 minutes!
And the manager said they only got 12-15 bottles of alcohol, less of peroxide. And they were gone in 10 minutes!

And this with them selling them from behind the counter, with a limit of 2 of any combo (2 alcohol, 1 alcohol/1 peroxide, 1 peroxide/1 Lysol).

They were out of bottles of alcohol, but the clerk looked again, and found a spray bottle of alcohol. Which is actually what I wanted.
And a can of Lysol foaming cleaner with bleach. They were then officially dry. At 3:10pm.

Bleach is of course an option, but also hard to find and more dangerous.

I've also talked to my grocery manager, and got the delivery times for produce, general groceries and meat.

I've also found that Vitamin C has disappeared because of the antioxident/immune system benefits.
I take 1 Vit C, 1 Vit E in the morning and was going to double it, but couldn't find it. Found some on Amazon coming in a week.

So those are some guerilla shopping tactics that I hope may help others. Talk to your store managers...

Coming and going, I'm fortunate my condo has the automatic Purell dispensers- 3 in the lobby and one on
each of the 10 floors by the elevator (elbow on the buttons).
I use it on the way out, then returning home hit it in the lobby and wipe my keys down, then again getting out of the elevator on one hand, walk down the hall to my door, unlock the door, spray alcohol on my shoes, wipe my hands together with Purell again, then walk in, take off N95 mask, wash hands, don't sing Happy Birthday.
Feel like I should be walking into the freakin Operating Room, not my home...

It's become a ritual already, this New Normal... (and a huge spike in masks/bandanas today).

So everybody be clean, be informed (no shortage here), be healthy, eat healthy, exercise, tell those close to you that you love them.
And my personal fave, my wife and I :happy: frequently! Cabin fever and all that...
Know what I mean? Nudge nudge. Know what I mean? Say no more...know what I mean?

 

[ahalpert]

If this is anywhere close to true things are starting to get very nasty, very concerning for international trust.

Chris Young

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-cries-foul-over-berlin-bound-masks-diverted-to-u-s-11585943440

I read that elsewhere as well and I think it's true - that the US commandeered a shipment of German-bound masks made by a US company in China.

I also read 3 days ago that the US asked Thailand if they could send masks and they were like, "what are you talking about? You just sent masks to us." https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/pence-task-force-coronavirus-aid-157806

It seems that the US has not managed medical supplies well, and now we are struggling to source them aggressively...

 

[cyvideo]

Bleach is of course an option, but also hard to find and more dangerous.

As you say you have to use bleach with caution. Mix and apply using rubber gloves as it can irritate and burn. In most bleaches the active constituent is Sodium Hypochlorite. When using household bleach for disinfection and hygiene purposes, depending on concentration, it is usually a mix of 1 cup (240 mL) of bleach in 1 gallon of water. Wash and wipe down surfaces with the bleach mixture. Right now for those of you who did chemistry in school where else do you find Sodium Hypochlorite? If you have a Chlorine based swimming pool check out you pool liquid Chlorine containers and what do you find. In 99% of cases it is Sodium Hypochlorite. Use that in place of household bleach. Just follow the household bleach mix ratio of one cup of liquid pool chlorine to a gallon of water.

If you have or use dry granulated pool chlorine it's a bit different. Dry chlorine is usually Calcium Hypochlorite and the benefit to using it over over Sodium Hypochlorite is shelf life. Calcium Hypochlorite (pool shock) is sold in a solid granular form and has a 10 year shelf life when stored in a cool, dark place. The other benefit is the amount of available chlorine. The concentration of chlorine is much higher with Calcium Hypochlorite. For example, a small 1-pound bag of Calcium Hypochlorite can disinfect up to 10,000 gallons of drinking water. However to make a homemade chlorine 'bleach' solution for disinfecting rather than water purification you’ll need to do the following. Mix 2 level Tablespoons of Calcium Hypochlorite to 3 cups of water. Bottle it and then use it as you would normal household liquid bleach. I buy dry granular Calcium Hypochlorite in 10Kg containers for our pool. I think you will find most pool and DIY stores will still have tons of either dry or liquid pool Chlorine available. Grab some now before everyone wakes up to the fact it can be used in place of bleach for home hygiene purposes.


Totally off topic and nothing to do with the above but...

I lived in India for seventeen years. All us expats were always hyper-sensitive about exposure to disease and virus contamination. It became second nature. Always on the watch out. We lived with Mosquito nets, used Chloroquine tablets for our water when traveling and were constantly on our guard against being exposed to Malaria, Typhoid, Amoebic Dysentery etc etc. This is where we used pool chlorine quite often when household bleach was short.

Useless information. Why does Tonic Water taste the way it does? During the British Raj days in India when traveling the Brits still wanted their 'Gin and Tonic.' Because no one trusted the water it was always treated with Chloroquine tablets. This then made the Tonic Water to go with your Gin. The Brits became so familiar with the taste of Chloroquine treated water that when they returned to the UK the good old Gin and ordinary water tasted like s***e so I was often informed. Hence the development of Tonic Water. Incidentally we never drank water unless it had been boiled and boiled for THREE MINUTES to guarantee it was safe.

Chris Young

https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/resources/pdf/fsp/drugs/Chloroquine.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tonic_water

 

[Eric Coughlin]

Can someone explain why N95 masks are supposedly effective to prevent exhaling the virus, but not effective to prevent inhaling the virus? So these masks are designed to let virus in but not let it out?

I get any type of covering would reduce the distance of a sneeze or cough, but normal breathing, not so much. The way I'd imagine it, if it can prevent the virus from going out, it can prevent it from coming in. Someone want to clarify?

I'm just imagining as more masks become available suddenly the CDC will say, "Actually, turns out these masks do help prevent inhaling the virus as well. We just had previously wanted to prioritize them for those who are already sick."

 

[groveChuck]

DIY Face Mask Filter with HEPA Fabric

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x64QdUl5mgE

 

[Run&Gun]

* Regarding alcohol (rubbing, not DLD's preferred imbibing strain) and its availability- I went to the managers at my Walgreens and CVS drugstores and asked when their deliveries come. My Walgreens said Wed 10-11am. CVS Tues 5am.
CVS opens at 8am and says if you want something precious be there then. Or earlier. There will probably be a line.

I went to Walgreens Tues at noon (they said give the truck 2hrs to unload). At noon, the truck had not arrived, they said it was due between 1 and 2pm. I said so come at 3? They said yes.

I came back at 3 sharp. The truck which normally takes 1-2hrs to unload, had such a small load it had unloaded in 20 minutes!
And the manager said they only got 12-15 bottles of alcohol, less of peroxide. And they were gone in 10 minutes!

And this with them selling them from behind the counter, with a limit of 2 of any combo (2 alcohol, 1 alcohol/1 peroxide, 1 peroxide/1 Lysol).

They were out of bottles of alcohol, but the clerk looked again, and found a spray bottle of alcohol. Which is actually what I wanted.
And a can of Lysol foaming cleaner with bleach. They were then officially dry. At 3:10pm.

Bleach is of course an option, but also hard to find and more dangerous.

I've also talked to my grocery manager, and got the delivery times for produce, general groceries and meat.

I've also found that Vitamin C has disappeared because of the antioxident/immune system benefits.
I take 1 Vit C, 1 Vit E in the morning and was going to double it, but couldn't find it. Found some on Amazon coming in a week.

So those are some guerilla shopping tactics that I hope may help others. Talk to your store managers...

So what I keep wondering... At what point do we get back to normal in regards to supplies in the stores and everyday isn't like going to the grocery store after they've said that a cat 3 hurricane is coming or the snowstorm of the century is bearing down upon us? Actually for the most part, perishable food is reasonably available, it's still the toilet paper, cleaning supplies and hand sanitizer... At what point do people wake-up and realize they have "enough" at home and the stores and supply chains actually are able to re-stock to normal levels? I've actually seen some grocery store ads over the last day or two actually addressing this and telling people the supply chains are solid and to think of their neighbors(don't buy more than you need for normal use so that others can buy what they need).