Coronavirus Impact

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One good note of the lockdown is that heavily polluted cities are enjoying some of the cleanest air they've had in a while.

It's worth noting how people behave under unusual circumstances. In today's local paper we have an ad from a memorial park saying in huge red letters "We're Open. We offer a full range of options including ground burials, crypts, niches, urn plots, and cremations. Many arrangements may be made completely electronically"

Yeah, thank you for the grim reminder.
 
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Germany has a .56% death rate so far. Two reasons; one fact and one speculative.

Germany runs a lot of tests and so has identified a larger group of cases. This coincides with the UK analyst that estimated the death rate in the UK was about 11x lower than being reported. Currently, the US death rate is 1.5%. That rate is with a lack of test kits.

The second reason reported is speculating that so far, those tested were largely younger people. This doesn't make sense to me since deaths are going to be counted regardless of the age of those being tested. If older people were tested, it wouldn't make the number of deaths go up. If you're on deaths bed, you're going to be tested.
 
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Paul F said:
Germany has a .56% death rate so far. Two reasons; one fact and one speculative.

Germany runs a lot of tests and so has identified a larger group of cases. This coincides with the UK analyst that estimated the death rate in the UK was about 11x lower than being reported. Currently, the US death rate is 1.5%. That rate is with a lack of test kits.

The second reason reported is speculating that so far, those tested were largely younger people. This doesn't make sense to me since deaths are going to be counted regardless of the age of those being tested. If older people were tested, it wouldn't make the number of deaths go up. If you're on deaths bed, you're going to be tested.
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That's promising, but let's remember that there are people dying in the US of coronavirus who aren't included in the official tally because they never received a test, so we have an undercount.

Also, 0.56% of 165 million people (half the US population, which is the number of people who could ultimately be infected) is about 1 million people.

And let's not forget that the death toll soars when the hospital is overwhelmed, as we may soon see in NYC and other places.

Hopefully our social distancing buys us time and we discover an effective treatment ASAP! Clinical drug trials are in progress...
 
soarprod said:
New info from Neil Ferguson.

https://www.newscientist.com/articl...e-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/
The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus
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That sounds promising, although I read that some people in the UK are already dying because they were told not to go to hospital and recover at home: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...covid-19-after-being-told-she-is-not-priority

Also important to note that the article you reference says they can cope only because of the lockdown. They couldn't cope without it.

And buried towards the end is the assessment that coronavirus is more contagious than they thought, with an R0 over 3 and not 2.5 as had been thought.
 
Sweden seems to have gone in a different direction. They're more into the "phased in herd immunity" approach that was contemplated at a certain point in the UK, but abandoned. Sweden seems confident that they have enough hospital infrastructure to handle the curve of demand with this approach. I guess we'll see.

On another note, the activity levels on these boards when it comes to COVID-19 seems to be tapering off. There was of course the initial burst when everyone was learning and reporting and exchanging info, fears and speculation. But now, dare I say it, it's becoming something of a "new normal". It's becoming a familiar fact of life. Of course, this doesn't mean the pandemic itself is stabilizing, or the government reaction to it. Quite the opposite - the pandemic is still growing, particularly in the U.S. - and the counter measures are still escalating, but the novelty has worn off. It's amazing how fast we've all adapted, at least on a psychological level, to this extraordinary set of circumstances. And so, the activity levels here have fallen off somewhat.

This makes me think that re-starting the economy is going to be less disruptive than perhaps feared and perhaps will start sooner than the worst case scenarios which had this thing going on into the fall/winter. I'm cautiously optimistic that we can get back to normal - or at least the "new normal" - by the end of June at the very latest. Now, that doesn't mean that it'll be back to just like it was before - for sure there will be all sorts of new workflows and habits, and for sure we'll be routinely using contagion abatement techniques, and the vulnerable will need to continue sheltering.
 
OldCorpse said:
It's amazing how fast we've all adapted, at least on a psychological level, to this extraordinary set of circumstances.
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It is just the beginning, I suspect the process will have parallels with the Kübler-Ross model.

In the USA we rounding off the denial stage, the anger stage (with frustration, irritation, and anxiety) will be next.

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Until there's an effective vaccine or treatment, I'm gonna have to be self-isolating for the foreseeable future. Thankfully, my job allows me to do that. I'm actually starting to get quite a bit of work coming in. I suppose not surprising as people in the film business are retreating to work that can be done from home, and over the internet, which is trailer and editing friendly. Unless this situation takes a catastrophic turn that destabilizes all of civilization, I should come out okay, provided I stay healthy.
 
I had a phone interview today with a non-profit who expects to shoot interviews in NYC in May. No idea if that's realistic.

All my weddings have been postponed but a friend says he's shot a couple in the NY area at private residences with fewer than 20 people.

So some work lumbers on. My biggest concern would be if my clients went out of business before the economy could restart.
 
Looks like China may have under reported their death toll by at least a factor of magnitude, based on the number of burial urns being distributed in Wuhan: http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/u...t-chinas-tally/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

If their reported number of infections was accurate, that would mean they had a higher mortality rate. Of course, probably both were under reported.

Maybe we should look at Germany to get the most accurate info in the world...
 
ahalpert said:
Looks like China may have under reported their death toll by at least a factor of magnitude, based on the number of burial urns being distributed in Wuhan: http://shanghaiist.com/2020/03/27/u...t-chinas-tally/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

If their reported number of infections was accurate, that would mean they had a higher mortality rate. Of course, probably both were under reported.

Maybe we should look at Germany to get the most accurate info in the world...
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China under reporting CV numbers has pretty much been a forgone conclusion since the get-go. Someone today asked why Russia is reporting such few numbers. I just rolled my eyes and said half the country could already be dead and they wouldn't tell anyone so they wouldn't appear "weak" to the world.
 
mico said:
And if the madman in charge and his enablers had their way it would be the same in the U.S.
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Please refrain from these types of comments here. And please no one respond to it. The mods have already shut down two threads because of this type of comment, and have been lenient so far on this one. This forum is a politics free zone but they have given folks a little bit of leeway with this topic because of the extraordinary circumstances.
 
The grocery store here has put up acrylic "spit-screens" at the cash out to protect the workers and you have to bag them yourself.
I've been in my apartment for 8 days, went out today and got more groceries and 3 750ml cans of beer (thus... the post hahaha). More people out than I thought.
Locally there have yet to be any socially communicated transmissions and no cases to date. So far so good.
New York City sounds a little more tense and the CBC news here is constant Corona updating and nothing much else.
It "is" different around sure. :)
 
Well we got the next lock down stage today. Two's company three's a crowd so any more than two is a no, no. For weddings it's a max of five people. The couple, the priest or celebrant and the two witnesses required by law. If they want a video shooter and a snapper they both have to register as the two witnesses. Crazy but true. As for sport there is some serious talk here as to whether some of the team codes will ever come back to what they were. Cable companies bleeding badly having paid a couple of billion for TV sports rights and nothing to show for it. Strange times indeed. Stay apart, be well. Live long and prosper.

Chris Young

Live long and prosper.jpg
 
Paul F said:
The $2 T package also includes the ability to withdraw up to $100,000 out of your IRA tax free if you repay it in 3 years. That could be a useful stopgap measure for those in critical need of cash. Read carefully before you take action. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...liability-2020-03-27?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
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Oh my. Being forced to take money out of your IRA right now would just be adding insult to injury. I am one of those people who think that the economic damage is going to be far worse than is being reported, so a case could be made for taking money out of the market right now despite the relative losses.
 
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