Coronavirus Impact

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thefilmaddict

thefilmaddict

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Hi guys,

I know that many of you are from all over the world. Here in CT, Coronavirus (covid-19) has just started disrupting life here. My kid is home from school and work has slowed down. Luckily, everyone in my family is healthy. I wish the best for all of you.

I recently went to my local grocery store and had a surreal experience. I made a short little video documenting it:

https://youtu.be/C7YL0lENcMk
 
The impact is going to be overwhelming. I am with my octogenarian in-laws in Nevada. The governor just basically shut down all business in the State, other than essential businesses (fire, police, grocery, gas). All schools, all casinos, and all the major Strip hotels are closed. He urged self quarantine, he said "this is not the time for sleepovers and birthday parties, this is the time to aggressively stop the spread of this virus."

So, yeah, we're still not quite at Italy's and Spain's full quarantine status yet, but I imagine it's only a week or so away.
 
Tonight's Florida update - 216 positives (from 170 yesterday, although that was in the morning ... still a big jump), 7 dead (all elderly and in poor health, except the last one with no details yet given). Restaurants are open only for take-out and deliveries. Grocery stores are working shorter hours and now have a police car upfront for security. Miami beaches are semi-closed to large crowds. Bars/night clubs/gyms are closed for the time being.

On the other hand, there are plenty of spring-breakers making the scene.
 
Our county has declared a lockdown at midnight for 3 weeks. People in our area have been cool. Grocery stores have not been raided. Being a modest size town, I don't think people have as much of a feeling of apprehension that might be felt in a dense urban area.
 
I went to the grocery store in Atlanta a couple days ago. It was slightly busy, but not terribly so. I've certainly had much longer lines around Thanksgiving or other random times before. The toilet paper aisle was empty, bread was low but there was some, I think there was some off brand water left but not the good stuff (Desani), and most of the rest of the grocery store was pretty well stocked. I filled my cart with a few months full of food, but I'll probably be back to the store before long to get more fresh food. I've been on a health food kick lately for unrelated reasons, lost close to 10 lbs so far (got a spare tire to get rid of), but in the midst of Coronavirus, I'm now getting the added benefit of a likely better immune system. It's actually been at least a few months since I've been sick, while I've typically gotten sick once every perhaps three months through my life.

I also went to the gun store and got some more ammo. The gun store was hopping with business, guns flying off the shelves. Signs saying limits of one box of ammo per person but they let me buy the six I asked for. Merica.

One thing I don't understand about hoarding bottled water is, are people expecting the water at their home to stop working? And if so, isn't it a lot cheaper to start stock piling water from home rather than buying a bunch of bottled water? It's like, the apocalypse is coming, but better be stocked up on some posh water options cause we don't be drinking none of that sink water. Good God if we have to drink rain water than we're all doomed, cause only very non-posh people would ever consider that.

I've seen a few people wearing masks but not many. Roads still seem have a pretty ordinary number of cars on them.

I made the mistake of adding salt to my canned green beans. Never again.



Throwing out some stats...

Death rate for reported Coronavirus cases for age 10-39 is .2% (source: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-11/covid-19-risk-healthy-young-person). Now let's imagine that only 10% of the infected get tested and reported, that brings the actual death rate down to .02%. Estimating that 37.5% Americans are 10-39, so out of 330 million Americans, 124 million are 10-39. If every single one of the 124 million 10-39 year olds got Coronavirus over the course of a year, at a .02% death rate, that's 24,800 deaths.

Comparing to car accidents, in the U.S. there are about 38,000 car accidents deaths per year. If the 10-39 range is again 37.5% of car accident deaths, that puts that age bracket at 14,225 deaths per year. 24,800 / 14,225 = 1.74. Which means, in a worst case scenario where literally every American got infected with the Coronavirus over the course of one year, a 10-39 year old would be 1.74 times more likely to die from Coronavirus that year than from a car accident. Given that Coronavirus will likely last for around a year while car accidents have been occurring for the past over 100 years and will continue for some time (self driving cars perhaps changing that in the future), a person who spends 80 years in a car would then be 46 times more likely to die in a car accident over the course of their life.

The mortality stats from that article were as follows, so can be adjusted for the different ages.

ages 10-19: 0.2%
ages 20-29: 0.2%
ages 30-39: 0.2%
ages 40-49: 0.4%
ages 50-59: 1.3%
ages 60-69: 3.6%
ages 70-79: 8%
80 and over: 14.8%
 
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I appreciate the concern, and truly feel for the elderly and those with conditions. I think it's a very good idea for them to isolate and get help with things like grocery deliveries. But I cannot avoid observing that this thing is BONKERS. You can't shut down the country and have everyone indoor like this, sorry. The economic impact is going to be devastating and prolonged if it goes on too long. They're saying to self-isolate for 2-3 weeks. OK, and then what? As soon as they're out again, the thing spreads all over again. It's insane. You're accomplishing nothing. The horse is already out of the barn. At this point, and I hate to say it, we've got to adjust to some deaths as a fact of life. Again, isolate the elderly and those with conditions and get them help. But the younger need to be out there and get herd immunity the old-fashioned way. We cannot hide from this. The economy simply cannot take months of this nonsense. I'm not being a jerk, or heartless. I'm just being realistic - a devastated economy is NOT a cure for a virus. It can only make things worse. We need everyone under 60 AND IN GOOD HEALTH to go about their business to keep the economy going - otherwise it'll be very, very bad, Great Depression style bad. We have high debt levels, both government and consumer. We cannot afford to be at a standstill for months. Yes, there will be some deaths - this truly truly is regrettable, but we have no choice. This self-isolation for those who are asymptomatic under 60 and healthy must stop - we need to get back to business pronto.

I apologize if this seems a bit tough, but folks, most of us have not experienced a truly bad Great Depression type economy. We are not prepared. We should avoid it, even at the cost of some lives lost (and I am a potential victim too, we need to sacrifice for the common good).
 
OldCorpse said:
I appreciate the concern, and truly feel for the elderly and those with conditions. I think it's a very good idea for them to isolate and get help with things like grocery deliveries. But I cannot avoid observing that this thing is BONKERS. You can't shut down the country and have everyone indoor like this, sorry. The economic impact is going to be devastating and prolonged if it goes on too long. They're saying to self-isolate for 2-3 weeks. OK, and then what? As soon as they're out again, the thing spreads all over again. It's insane. You're accomplishing nothing. The horse is already out of the barn. At this point, and I hate to say it, we've got to adjust to some deaths as a fact of life. Again, isolate the elderly and those with conditions and get them help. But the younger need to be out there and get herd immunity the old-fashioned way. We cannot hide from this. The economy simply cannot take months of this nonsense. I'm not being a jerk, or heartless. I'm just being realistic - a devastated economy is NOT a cure for a virus. It can only make things worse. We need everyone under 60 AND IN GOOD HEALTH to go about their business to keep the economy going - otherwise it'll be very, very bad, Great Depression style bad. We have high debt levels, both government and consumer. We cannot afford to be at a standstill for months. Yes, there will be some deaths - this truly truly is regrettable, but we have no choice. This self-isolation for those who are asymptomatic under 60 and healthy must stop - we need to get back to business pronto.

I apologize if this seems a bit tough, but folks, most of us have not experienced a truly bad Great Depression type economy. We are not prepared. We should avoid it, even at the cost of some lives lost (and I am a potential victim too, we need to sacrifice for the common good).
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What have you got to lose, though? You're just an old corpse. I agree, though. I don't get the people who are saying things like saving lives is always more important than freedom and the economy. What happened to the American motto, "Give me liberty, or give me death"? People fought and died for freedom in the American Revolutionary War and now we have a virus coming for our freedom, and our first reaction is to surrender to it because that will save lives, but at what cost. If it was just giving it all up for a couple or few weeks no big deal, but for a year or two, that's drastic. Realistically if half of America stops working for the next one to two years and social distancing for that entire time, an economic breakdown of that level could cause more deaths than the virus ever would have. People could be killing each other for food. Good thing they didn't go to work though so they could avoid a small chance of death from a virus. It's like in The Walking Dead where the zombies are no longer the primary threat; it's other people.

I suppose if one is optimistic they could look at China's dwindling new cases and hope that countries will be able to contain it, in which case shutting everything down could be worth it. So, perhaps it's worth a try, but at some point, it may not be wise to continue the whole social distancing and having everything shut down, and to just accept the risks involved with contracting the virus.
 
Eric Coughlin said:
I also went to the gun store and got some more ammo. The gun store was hopping with business, guns flying off the shelves. Signs saying limits of one box of ammo per person but they let me buy the six I asked for. Merica.
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I've heard a lot of small towns all over the USA were stocking up on ammo and liquor.
 
Euros 2020 - a quadrennial European soccer tournament for the best national teams, with Portugal being the 2016 winner - has been pushed into the next year. This should allow the domestic leagues to wind down their local competitions into June. The Euros are generally considered the third biggest global sporting event after the World Cup and the Olympics.

The Olympics schedule has not been changed.
 
With just in time transport and small stock, stores will be empty very fast when demand grows. Resulting in empty shelves. It is the rate of filling them (transport and distribution) that does the thing.
 
I'll say it's an interesting situation that will reveal flaws in our modern society. This is something that was going to happen eventually but the biggest fear is not the actual virus but peoples reactions.

As for business I do not count on any work until fall and I'm good with that as I have so many other things to keep me busy. I had a trip to Spain planned but that has also been cancelled.
 
I don’t know about the survival of the fittest philosophy — the economy is more important than human lives idea. I think we can be better than that, but like all good zombie movies: you find out the enemy is not the zombies, but how mankind reacts to adverse situations. Whether they make decisions based on love and science or fear and superstition. Sorry, Grandpa or mom, you have to be sacrificed for the almighty dollar. This does show a huge flaw in our system. Without a safety net, people will get hurt or die in times of crisis. We could have been better prepared for this, but it’s easier to slash funding to programs that prepare for things like this when times are good — to give extra money to the super rich instead. I am not trying to get political. It’s just the way we deal with things. We usually don’t get things right without a huge wake up call (and sometimes by then, it’s too late). It’s human nature. We kick the can. Look how we’ve handled global warming. Will we be our best selves or will we cave to our darker impulses? What are you guys doing with all of that amunition and your guns? I have grandparents and a young son with immunity issues. I hope for their sake, you all search your hearts, make the best of this and choose love over fear, hate and greed. We can be our best and get through almost anything together, but will we be divided? Will all lives matter?
 
And guys, in no way am I trying to attack you or your ideas. All input is valid and should be considered. The pictures you are all posting are incredible. I wish I could wake up tomorrow and realize this was all just a bad dream.
 
This "just-in-time" mentality has just experienced it's first dose of reality.

My grandparents knew about canning food for long term, having 3 months of food on hand. How to filter water for drinking.

Everyone else forgot, evidently.
 
Our grandparents were so tough. Now we understand better. I just read this. It explains why just letting the virus run it’s course without intervention may not be a great idea:

From an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University...and yes now we’re dealing with 2 strains after mutation and more to come.

Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell.

It has to do with RNA sequencing.... I.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses, come from ANIMALS....the WHO (World Health Organization) tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem. Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity. The RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.

Now sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human. For years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human, before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human. Once that happens, we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that’s what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be.

H1N1 was deadly, but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently too.

Fast forward.

Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from ANIMAL TO PEOPLE. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated AGAIN and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”

This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket!! And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.

And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way that it causes great damage to human lungs.

That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.

We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.

Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...

And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.

Be smart folks... acting like you’re unafraid is so not sexy right now, and frankly stupid and selfish.

#flattenthecurve. Stay home folks... and share this to those that just are not catching on.
 
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