Camera rumors for 2016?

what they shouldve done last year was show ursa mini as a prototype proof of concept and didnt announce a timeline of availability.
 
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That would have been very respectful. They did create a lot of hype and maybe stalled a few camera purchases for other makers, but they are being damaged on their top end reputation. "Pro" folks will look at the company as sort of a joke but the middle to low end will still salivate over the camera whenever it is released due to its specs. But I do not think it was intentional. I think BM really wanted to ship this thing in the fall but ran into issues.
 
DLD said:
They have delivered the Mini with their V2 4K sensor. I think it has the lowest reviews of pretty much any camera I have seen on B&H. Ever.
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Since I have a deposit on a 4.6K Mini I decided to dig thru those B&H reviews. Very disturbing. Thought the issues might just be the same as their previous 4K sensor's, but it's worse. Not only is the sensor performing worse, but there are far too many complaints of other major issues, many of them hardware based.

stoneinapond said:
Whenever I see Sony footage, my reaction is the visual equivalent of hearing chalk screech on a blackboard.
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http://youtu.be/vk8TEHMi4CA
 
combatentropy said:
Your post makes some great points. The one thing that popped into my head is global shutter.

I can't believe it's 2016 and we still have rolling shutter. And it's not just theoretical. It's visible. Maybe not in slow pans but in: cars passing by (or you filming while in a car), guitar strings, propellers, lightning bolts, and camera flashes. Camera makers continue to choose to capture twisted, inaccurate, half-exposed frames in glorious 6K than to capture an accurate image in 2K.

Besides Blackmagic and Digital Bolex, Sony has global shutter in the very expensive F55. But two years ago Sony has shown that they can make cheaper global-shutter sensors like the 16mm-sized IMX174 (global shutter, HD, 12 stops, 120 fps) and I think that industrial cameras that are using it sell for a thousand dollars, maybe less. Hopefully soon Sony will let its global-shutter tech percolate into other pro cameras, and hopefully other camera makers will join in the game too.

This has been your monthly plea for global shutter by combatentropy ;)
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Just remember that a Global Shutter necessitates a lower sensitivity. It requires a driver circuit at every photo site, which leaves less space for gathering light. This is why the F5 is rated at 2000 ISO while the F55 is at 1250ISO. You may say that Global Shutter is the most important factor to you, but the success of the A7S certainly indicates that high sensitivity is an important factor to many.
 
Couple of thoughts for the more experienced filmmakers here. First, I'm not understanding the desire for 60p. Is it because you are interested in a moderate slow motion or because you like the look of 60p? I figured most would be shooting at 24p. Second, I am having trouble understanding why people want the Ursa for the look and dismissing Sony. Can't you achieve the look you want through LUTS, post production, etc..? Help me understand.
 
DLD said:
....Let's look at the market now, as it's approaching the NAB'16. There are 4K cameras galore, from smartphones to P&S to MFT to APS-C to full frame (and, if you're Chivas Lubezki, to the medium format). Compared to BMD, there are cheaper cameras and there are more expensive cameras. What's worse for the Aussies, is that there plenty of cameras vying for the same niche as they are and they come from the dominant figures in this industry, figures that have familiar brand names, wide network of retailers and long established technical support. And plenty of people that had very little choice three years ago - their primary choice was then to argue that 4K didn't matter and than they were perfectly happy to live in the 1080p world - now have multiple choices (including, let us not forget, the second hand market for models that were once top of the line).

And, so why would anyone buy anything from BMD now? As everyone asserts, it's its "look". But there are also people who happen to like the F35 "look". Others still like the 1D C "look". Even if one stipulates that no one ever in history liked the Sony "look" or the Panasonic "look", this notion hasn't prevented GH4, A7SII/RII, FS5, FS7 from flying off the shelves. And, guess what? People have learned how to wring more than a decent image out of GH4, FS7, A7RII and so on. They may still like BMD "look" but they no longer need the BMD "look". They have other cameras already. They have other rigs already. They have other workflows already. And, if they're in a market for the B-Cam or an A-cam replacement, they'll go to the same well. And this mass represents hundreds of thousands of shooters.

Naturally, BMD will have its fans but, to stay in this industry, BMD also needs to appeal to the masses, the masses that have largely moved onto to other brand names. And competition isn't exactly letting up either. At some point, Canon and Nikon will begin delivering the 4K DSLR's. Sony will bring out its large body high end units. Panasonic will update. Even Red is dipping its toes into an affordable, if not quite entry level, market. And lots of people love the Red "look". That is why I said that BMD has nowhere to go. It's surrounded by competition and its loyalists alone will not be enough to keep it afloat.
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I gotta agree with DLD. The competition is catching up to BMD. They will really have to be innovators to stay relevant in the near future.

Sorta like Tesla. Once the major car manufacturers start introducing their electric cars, Tesla will struggle in the market place. They will not be able to compete with the big boys, due to 'economy of scale'. (larger volumes drive down component prices)

I like to root for the 'underdog', but the delay of the Ursa Mini will ultimately hurt them.

Personally, I really like the look of the Mini 4.6 and was seriously thinking a purchasing one, but I have to pull the trigger on a 4k camera soon and who knows when Black Magic will deliver.

At this point in time, a Sony FS5 or FS7 may be a viable alternative to the BMD Mini 4.6.

Also, I know this has been debated ad nauseum on this site, but their decision not to include built in ND filters was probably not a wise one.

Most cameras at this end of the spectrum have them. It's a deal-breaker for many.

Unfortunately, BMD seems to have a habit of putting 'design aesthetics' over usability. (e.g. the Cinema Camera. Looks cool, but ergonomically deficient)

All that being said, I still hope they find their niche in the market. It never hurts to have mavericks shaking up the industry...
 
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Steve Harryman said:
Couple of thoughts for the more experienced filmmakers here. First, I'm not understanding the desire for 60p. Is it because you are interested in a moderate slow motion or because you like the look of 60p? I figured most would be shooting at 24p. Second, I am having trouble understanding why people want the Ursa for the look and dismissing Sony. Can't you achieve the look you want through LUTS, post production, etc..? Help me understand.
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Every professional in the world is at some point going to need slow-motion for a job unless you shoot interviews every single day for the rest of your life. 60p is more than moderate slow-motion and should be a standard in every camera moving forward @ at least UHD.

Extensive color-grading and post-production may help you achieve the look you want, but some cameras just have a really specific image and IQ that one may like. Most modern cameras look good enough, but there are also many other reasons one may buy a certain camera.
 
Mitch Gross said:
Just remember that a Global Shutter necessitates a lower sensitivity. It requires a driver circuit at every photo site, which leaves less space for gathering light. This is why the F5 is rated at 2000 ISO while the F55 is at 1250ISO. You may say that Global Shutter is the most important factor to you, but the success of the A7S certainly indicates that high sensitivity is an important factor to many.
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Is it possible to move the global-shutter circuitry to another layer in a stacked design? I believe that is what has been done with Alternative Vision's Lumiense sensor design.
 
TFilipiak said:
Sorta like Tesla. Once the major car manufacturers start introducing their electric cars, Tesla will struggle in the market place. They will not be able to compete with the big boys, due to 'economy of scale'. (larger volumes drive down component prices)
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This is not a knock on any of the companies in our industry, but I would say that the comparison to Tesla is inaccurate. Tesla cars have received some of the highest ratings and accolades in history. They are lauded over for design, quality, safety, performance, comfort, and so on. Unlike most small startups, they have not suffered the growing pains of poorly designed and/or executed products. And they are now moving to a position to become the supplier for the battery systems that will power the entire industry, if not other industries as well. So I don't see a corollary here to Tesla.
 
Tzedekh said:
Is it possible to move the global-shutter circuitry to another layer in a stacked design? I believe that is what has been done with Alternative Vision's Lumiense sensor design.
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There are always trade-offs. The most obvious is that in making a thicker, layered sensor the issue of heat becomes compounded. Heat dissipation is always a necessity in sensor design, but this makes it worse, and layers partially dictate how and where certain heat dissipation solutions can be used. Get a sensor too hot and it'll fry, but long before that it will start showing more and more noise in the lower part of the dynamic range, thereby reducing the functional DR.

There are no simple solutions here. It is a constant juggling act.
 
Mitch Gross said:
This is not a knock on any of the companies in our industry, but I would say that the comparison to Tesla is inaccurate. Tesla cars have received some of the highest ratings and accolades in history. They are lauded over for design, quality, safety, performance, comfort, and so on. Unlike most small startups, they have not suffered the growing pains of poorly designed and/or executed products.
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Though some question the ethics of "The Transported Man."
 
Tzedekh said:
Is it possible to move the global-shutter circuitry to another layer in a stacked design? I believe that is what has been done with Alternative Vision's Lumiense sensor design.
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Yes. Alternative Vision's Lumiense sounds a lot like Invisage's QuantumFilm and Panasonic's Organic Photoconductive Film. Alternative Vision does it with another layer of silicon, but Invisage and Panasonic do with a layer of other material.

Sony does it another way, with analog memory, which also "does not reduce the pixel's saturation capacity."
 
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Mitch Gross said:
This is not a knock on any of the companies in our industry, but I would say that the comparison to Tesla is inaccurate. Tesla cars have received some of the highest ratings and accolades in history. They are lauded over for design, quality, safety, performance, comfort, and so on. Unlike most small startups, they have not suffered the growing pains of poorly designed and/or executed products. And they are now moving to a position to become the supplier for the battery systems that will power the entire industry, if not other industries as well. So I don't see a corollary here to Tesla.
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Mitch, I do a lot of design work for the auto industry. I am not knocking Tesla at all, but understand: the bigger car companies get huge discounts due to the huge volume of their orders. That means they can sell a similar vehicle for 1/2-2/3 the price. (suppliers drop their prices based on volume)

The same principle goes for BMD. If a sensor costs them $1000 for a 1000 units, it will most likely cost Sony $500 for 5000 units. (thus, economy of scale) That's why it's harder for smaller companies to compete with larger ones for this reason alone.

Also, without getting too far off topic; to my point, Tesla, however good, has yet to show a profit. Currently, they are being propped up by investor and government money.
 
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Tesla is more like Red. They came in at the higher end where higher margins compensated for the lower volumes. (on top of the federal and state subsidies)

A while ago, I posted a quote to an analysis from a Harvard business professor that claimed that it's much harder for the upscale manufacturers to drift down than for the entry level makers to move up. Historically, VW and pretty much every Japanese and Korean conglomerate started off with entry level lines before gaining market share and consequently expanding their range of products. Should BMD have followed the trajectory paths of Goldstar/LG or Datsun/Nissan/Infinity, it'd be going upscale with their post-CC. IMO, they did try that but swung-and-missed with URSA. And now their reputation has taken a hit on more than one front. It's one thing to expand the line of products after establishing a solid bridgehead in an industry; it's entirely another to enter an arena where one lacks the required expertise.
 
I thought this article was interesting. Check out how they deal with heat on the Arri cameras.
http://www.redsharknews.com/production/item/3073-how-arri-makes-cameras-redshark-exclusive

Obviously there is a reason that the more pro cameras tend to be bigger and I think Blackmagic is on the right track with the URSA and URSA Mini. It's just a matter if they can get everything tweaked to the best performance and shipped.

The game isn't over. A 4.6K compressed raw shooting camera with global shutter and decent dynamic range for around $5K-$8K is pretty great thing. Again, assuming the bugs get worked out and the camera starts shipping. Two or three years from now this would still be a viable camera.
 
TFilipiak said:
Mitch, I do a lot of design work for the auto industry. I am not knocking Tesla at all, but understand: the bigger car companies get huge discounts due to the huge volume of their orders. That means they can sell a similar vehicle for 1/2-2/3 the price. (suppliers drop their prices based on volume)

The same principle goes for BMD. If a sensor costs them $1000 for a 1000 units, it will most likely cost Sony $500 for 5000 units. (thus, economy of scale) That's why it's harder for smaller companies to compete with larger ones for this reason alone.

Also, without getting too far off topic; to my point, Tesla, however good, has yet to show a profit. Currently, they are being propped up by investor and government money.
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They hit profit roughly 3 years ago....

http://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-hits-first-profitable-quarter-ever/
 
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