AMC Says ‘Almost All’ U.S. Theaters Will Reopen in July

The short sellers that don't backup their positions and then fold, deserve to go down.

And, yes, independent traders get screwed early and often. Large financial institutions get a lot of favors thrown their way. It's not much different than the protections the casinos get. You can lose as much as you want but, if you start winning, they'll escort you out. With force.
 
ahalpert said:
Oh my god this is so funny. ....
Someone will make a movie about this
Click to expand...

Count me in as a total and complete fan of the as-yet-unfinished screenplay. There's a terrible beauty to this all.

There are so many tools (and growing) for disseminating information and sharing value in a totally decentralized way. The gatekeepers are on life support. Try as they might, I'm not sure the statist-globalists can really stop the inevitable. 2021 may finally be the year populism breaks free, and we taste true freedom... if we can handle it.
 
I pre-ordered $100 of gamestop stock on Robinhood early this morning (my first stock order ever) but at opening bell I got an email saying my order was canceled and that Robinhood wasn't fulfilling buy orders for gamestop today. Lo and behold the shareprice is plummeting now that the powers that be have sent it on a one-way ticket back to earth.

The. Fix. Is. In.
 
People are going ballistic on the wallstreetbets reddit and the class action lawsuit threats are flying hot and heavy.

Apparently Americans are largely unable to buy gamestop right now, so I guess goliath is going to take their--

But wait, what's that? Like a flock of giant eagles from the misty mountains, an international consortium of canadians, Brits, swedes, kazakhs and more are pouring into Gamestop. It has rallied a bit. Unclear where the day ends and if the orcs, I mean the hedge funds have already managed to escape financial ruin.
 
It seems that AMC has by saved by redditors. $600 million of debt vaporized!

AMC stock went up 300% on Wednesday due to the same buzz on Reddit. Per Matt Levine, a finance and opinion columnist for Bloomberg, these recent events may have saved the company:

"Yesterday, holders of $600 million of AMC convertible bonds converted them into stock at a conversion price of $13.51 per share. Six hundred million dollars of debt, vaporized by Reddit enthusiasm... A week ago it was not crazy to think this company was doomed; now it is entirely possible that it will survive and thrive and show movies in movie theaters for decades to come because everyone went nuts and bought meme stocks this week."
Click to expand...
https://screenrant.com/amc-bankruptcy-saved-reddit-stock-market/
 
Jaime Valles said:
And, just like that, an entire generation is now going to move over to Bitcoin.
Click to expand...

Maybe but I fail to understand how investing in bitcoin is any different from investing in gold. It's not the same as investing in a productive company, right? (Not that this day-trading is inherently productive, but long-term investing theoretically is.)

Plus, there are anti-bitcoin murmurs in washington and other capitals around the world (for obvious reasons). maybe there's nothing they can do about it (which, I suppose, would be the appeal). Or maybe they can pull the rug out from under the whole thing.
 
Day trading ups the volume, which lowers the bid-ask spreads and allows for a quick execution and lower cost of a desirable transaction.

But this stuff will be investigated for a while. I don't believe that a forum group can control huge amounts of funds required to generate this much volume in this short a time. It's quite possible - and very likely, I reckon - that there's substantial dark money involved. It's also very likely that someone has figured out a new scam. At some point, this will be found out.
 
A forum group of millions? Hence the power of the meme. a million people times a thousand dollars is a billion $. The market cap of GME is currently just under $6B. Plus, lots of these retail traders are leveraging their capital with options. (This is all pretty new to a smooth-brained ape like me.)

And you have to start with their initial premise - that 140% of the number of total available shares were short sold and so the hedge funds could get squeezed if they got trapped by a high share price. It's a reasonable thesis, so it wasn't impossible to pull in the masses.

The whole thing is classic prisoner's dilemma now, hence the abundance of nerve-steeling memes (mostly captioned film scenes) on the reddit encouraging people to hold (diamond hands).

But yes, there is evidence that other big wall street players have started going long as well. If they can predict what the mob will do, they can make big tendies.

At any rate, I ordered 1 share of gme and 4 of amc. I'm so rich, I can afford to see it all go poof ;). So proud to partake in this movement. Yolo!
 
1.4/1 ratio is quite reasonable. People bought property with nothing down during the real estate bubble of 2002-2005/2007.

And, white options give traders a lot of leverage, they can also send one to the poorhouse very quickly. The "professionals" run all sort of formulas to limit their risks and exposure to losses. That's why they lure kids with PhD's in mathematics from Harvard.

Several banks and hedge funds have increased the value of the compensation packages that they are offering to entry-level quantitative PhD graduates to become quantitative traders specifically involved in automated trading.

In fact, some banks offer entry-level quants with PhDs from top universities base salaries as high as $125k and hedge funds offer up to $175k base salary. Exceptional entry-level PhD quants can receive total compensation packages, including sign-on bonuses, worth up to $400k, according to recruiting firm Options Group
Click to expand...

https://www.efinancialcareers.com/n...-pay-phd-e-traders-automated-trading-salaries
 
Yeah total waste of intelligence being funneled into working a casino.

I thought the options people are buying only commit you to the purchase price of the option contract. Then they only need to exercise the option if it's in the money. So I think their losses are limited.

Similarly, buying a house no money down, your losses are limited to the purchase price.

Shorting stock, your loss is theoretically unlimited. You can say 1.4/1 is reasonable for a short interest but it was like 2.3x the size of the next biggest short interest (which I think was amc). Anyways, the potential for that position to blow up in their face seems pretty clear, even to me. Melvin already lost at least $3B and had to sell a minority stake to survive. Maybe they'll make it back. Or maybe they won't.

Tomorrow should be interesting, although this saga may have another week or 2 left to play out.
 
ahalpert said:
Maybe but I fail to understand how investing in bitcoin is any different from investing in gold. It's not the same as investing in a productive company, right? (Not that this day-trading is inherently productive, but long-term investing theoretically is.)

Plus, there are anti-bitcoin murmurs in washington and other capitals around the world (for obvious reasons). maybe there's nothing they can do about it (which, I suppose, would be the appeal). Or maybe they can pull the rug out from under the whole thing.
Click to expand...

Gold is real and tangible.
Paper currencies are backed by banks/governments/countries

Bitcoin isn't. It can disappear at any time and you have no recourse. There have been cases of people having bitcoin "stolen" and the police saying it does not come under any law or jurisdiction. People have lost $$ thousands. I think about 1/3 of the worlds bit coins have been "lost" in that no one can access them because passwords are forgotten and or computers they are stored on have crashed. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7794581/lnvestors-want-Bitcoin-founders-body-exhumed-questionable-circumstances-death.html I know companies crash all the time but for BitCoin there is not protection or Bank of Last Resort.
 
JAMedia said:
Gold is real and tangible.
Paper currencies are backed by banks/governments/countries

Bitcoin isn't. It can disappear at any time and you have no recourse. There have been cases of people having bitcoin "stolen" and the police saying it does not come under any law or jurisdiction. People have lost $$ thousands. I think about 1/3 of the worlds bit coins have been "lost" in that no one can access them because passwords are forgotten and or computers they are stored on have crashed. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7794581/lnvestors-want-Bitcoin-founders-body-exhumed-questionable-circumstances-death.html I know companies crash all the time but for BitCoin there is not protection or Bank of Last Resort.
Click to expand...

“Money” is all kind of just an idea at this point(one of the big theories of why the US went off of the gold standard in the 70’s is because we don’t have anywhere close to the amount of gold to actually back the currency in circulation), but bitcoin is truly just in the ether.

As you said, there are numerous stories of “it” being stolen and lost. There was a story on the news a few weeks ago about this guy who bought some in the very early days and now it’s worth many (tens of?) millions. BUT the guy can’t remember the password for his old computer that the password is on and he (stupidly) set his computer up to permanently lock the drive(delete?) if there are 10 incorrect password attempts. I believe he had used eight of his attempts.
 
Wow R&G I missed that bit about the gold standard lol. If you're selling goldbuggery I ain't buying.

But I wanted to say check this out - a bull thesis on AMC from 5 days ago that is actually pretty convincing. (Its also worth mentioning that the tremendous amount of short sellers have probably manipulated the media narrative against AMC.)

Why buy AMC?
___________________________________________________________________________________________________

1.) COVID vaccine rollout has started, and we will be able to attend movies soon. The Biden Administration (sorry for getting political, just pls keep reading) has an ambitious plan (100 million vaccines in 100 days or whatever the ****) and this pandemic is almost over. I’d give it until the end of the year.

2.) Most AMC theatres are open or they are planning to open soon with social distancing and mask measures in place. They will shut down the food services and concessions, but they are coming back.

3.) Consumers have a sentimental connection to movies. They will come back. People are starved for the outside world and will come out in massive hordes to watch movies. People will go out and see movies, take their kids, go on dates, etc. Nothing can replicate the experience of a giant screen and surround audio.

4.) This major influx of blue balled movie goers will cause a major boost in 2021. Then we will see a continuation of the year over year growth we have been seeing since 2012.

5.) The AMC business model is working. The revenue has steadily increased since 2012 year over year. In 2012, they made $811 million. In 2019, they made $5.47 billion. There has been a steady rise. THEY ARE NOT IN DECLINE.

6.) I understand they have many loans, but it is something that can be paid off in a few years with the help of their parent company, Wanda Entertainment, and increased profits in 2021.

7.) They will not go bankrupt. WANDA entertainment, a Chinese company owns the plurality share (20%) and will bail them out if it is necessary. They bought for $2.6 billion in 2012, and have seen a ROI, scoring $2.7 billion in 2013, the year immediately after their purchase. AMC is too good of an asset for Wanda to lose them. Also, AMC can take advantage of new stimulus and other government assistance programs.

8.) It’s extremely cheap right now because everybody is shorting, and there’s a pandemic. Corona is only temporary. Everybody thought GameStop was going to go under, until we showed them. Remember that.

9.) If there is interest or heightened trading in the stock, AMC can dilute shares and sell them to help finance operations and pay debt, using stock sales as leverage. AMC just did this today, and they can do it again if needed.

10.) AMC will not go bankrupt, not only because of the potential Wanda bailout, but they also raised $917 million today. They have enough runway to stay operational the end of the year. "Bankruptcy is off the table for now." (We should be able to return to theatres by then.) A slight majority of this new liquidity comes from issuing new shares, as described in 9. They are also planning to do debt/equity swaps, so those who take out debt can hold shares in the company, and AMC won't get ****ed over by high loan payments.

11.) AMC is about 70% shorted, there is much potential to cause a squeeze. However, there are still many more reasons to invest in AMC beyond a simple short squeeze.

12.) AMC does very well when it is not pandemic. $5.4 billion in revenue last year, and there will be many movies, as well as many moviegoers that come out after the pandemic. Especially with major franchise movies, which have been delayed. They have also reached a deal with Universal, which allows Universal to do home releases earlier, but stipulates they must be in theatres for 17 days before that.

13.) AMC is only $12 a share right now... Even if it loses, you’re only going to lose a bit. Meanwhile, the ceiling is high, and there is much potential. If you want in, do it now while it's cheap. People keep talking about how dumb it is to buy during the pandemic, but this is the point of largest potential. Don't wait for the recovery to buy.

14.) AMC used to trade at $10 before the pandemic. Let’s keep it at its former glory. AMC deserved a $1bn market cap and they got one. They will probably hit $20 tomorrow (predicting $25 by Feb1, peak in summer with COVID all done.).

15.) Even though the Net income is negative and they lose money, it consistently stays in the hundred thousands range, and it does not lose that much. Any autist on here from GME could pay the difference. AMC has also increased gross profits year over year, from 2,004,200 in 2016, to 3,493,200.
Click to expand...
 
Run&Gun said:
“Money” is all kind of just an idea at this point(one of the big theories of why the US went off of the gold standard in the 70’s is because we don’t have anywhere close to the amount of gold to actually back the currency in circulation), but bitcoin is truly just in the ether.
Click to expand...

True. Actuality I don't think any country has the gold to cover all their currency in circulation. The difference is the US Government/US Federal reserve(?) will back the US Dollar. Just like the UK Government/Bank of England backs the British Pound. NO ONE backs the bitcoin as a Bank of Last Resort.

In the UK if any Bank/registered saving organist goes bust individual savings up to £80,000 (about $90,0000) are protected by the System (Banks/Bank of England/Government). So if my wife and I have £160,000 savings and the bank (or similar) goes bust we get the £160,000 back. However if we have £200,000 We still only get £160,000. Therefore it pays to spread it around a bit. :-)
IF we have £80,000 in Bit coin and the exchange(?) disappears then it is gone.. No recourse in law in the UK or AFAIK anywhere else.


Run&Gun said:
As you said, there are numerous stories of “it” being stolen and lost. There was a story on the news a few weeks ago about this guy who bought some in the very early days and now it’s worth many (tens of?) millions. BUT the guy can’t remember the password for his old computer that the password is on and he (stupidly) set his computer up to permanently lock the drive(delete?) if there are 10 incorrect password attempts. I believe he had used eight of his attempts.
Click to expand...

Quite. if he screws it up it is GONE and no one that will give any compensation, credit or anything else. Also as they are untraceable once it has left your account (phone/laptop or what ever) it has gone. No one is going to trace it for you. Even if they do no law enforcement agency is interested. Unless it ties in with a major criminal they are already looking at. Though even if they are interested you won't be getting your bit coin back.

The other thing is bit coin only exist whilst it is not causing major problems for the big banks or any major government. As soon as it does it will get closed down with all the value evaporating and not one getting anything back.
 
ahalpert said:
... But I wanted to say check this out - a bull thesis on AMC from 5 days ago that is actually pretty convincing. (Its also worth mentioning that the tremendous amount of short sellers have probably manipulated the media narrative against AMC.)
Click to expand...

Yes, and a bear thesis will spin rings around these points*. Don't use commentary, amateur or professional, to make investment decisions. Read financial statements from the past few years. Read what their CEO has said over the last few years. Research. Don't let some comments from someone you don't know influence you**.

Always remember, there are thousands of Bernie Madoff's out there operating at every level. They all have a pitch that sounds rock solid. ***

*Point 15 is incorrect. The author misread the financial statement (the numbers have to be multiplied by 1000). AMC lost millions, not hundred thousands.
** Including me.
*** By the way, I have a rock solid investment that is guaranteed to return 18% the first year and then go as high as $36% the second year. Good luck finding me the 3rd year.
 
Last edited:
Ya, the US "backs up" its currency. An average car was $5,000 in 1975 and is $40,000 today. One doesn't have to be Archimedes to figure out it's more than 3.14159.
 
Paul F said:
Yes, and a bear thesis will spin rings around these points*. Don't use commentary, amateur or professional, to make investment decisions. Read financial statements from the past few years. Read what their CEO has said over the last few years. Research. Don't let some comments from someone you don't know influence you**.
Click to expand...

I didn't mean to pitch this as an investment opportunity and I'm not planning to invest in it myself (other than the 4 symbolic/do-my-part shares I already bought). I'm just speculating on the future of the company as someone who wants cinemas to survive. It's just food for thought. But yes, your points are well-taken.

I haven't read as much about AMC, but what I've read about gamestop has been interesting--both the pieces about media narrative manipulation but also about people who aren't gamers deciding that everything will be streaming now. But with the release of the ps5 and new xbox this year, on top of selling consoles gamestop will probably be moving a lot of games. My last memories of video games was that they took forever to load--from a disc. It's a lot of data to call up instantly and it shifts quickly. Interesting to see how the market can misjudge the customer base.

Nobody is saying gme is properly valued now--that's the short squeeze happening. But people have suggested $80-180 is plausible.

And re: cinema-going, I heard that you couldn't get a baseball ticket the year after Spanish flu ended because the demand was so high. People will be wanting to go out.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top