TikTok is now the most popular website

ahalpert said:
Basically, there's a macro story here of tech giving up some of the gains they made during the pandemic. That's why the sector is broadly suffering.
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I will not concur. The valuations/market caps were long time trends and most markets turned, at best, flat or negative during 2020.

Now, on the downside, this could be the result of the 2020 inflation bubble exploding and a general economic malaise but it certainly looks like Hollywood and the Silicon Valley are taking it on the chin these days.

Here's the NASDAQ composite chart. If one looks at the 5Y data, one can see a major slump at the beginning of Covid in the US, then an inflationary pump and then a fairly soft, but not insignificantly so, deflation of the said bubble.


https://www.google.com/search?q=nas...AgAGSAYgBzQaSAQQxMS4xmAEAoAEB&sclient=gws-wiz
 
DLD said:
I will not concur. The valuations/market caps were long time trends and most markets turned, at best, flat or negative during 2020.

Now, on the downside, this could be the result of the 2020 inflation bubble exploding and a general economic malaise but it certainly looks like Hollywood and the Silicon Valley are taking it on the chin these days.

Here's the NASDAQ composite chart. If one looks at the 5Y data, one can see a major slump at the beginning of Covid in the US, then an inflationary pump and then a fairly soft, but not insignificantly so, deflation of the said bubble.


https://www.google.com/search?q=nas...AgAGSAYgBzQaSAQQxMS4xmAEAoAEB&sclient=gws-wiz
Click to expand...

It wasn't a major slump at the beginning of Covid on the NASDAQ. It rebounded in 3 months. Also, I doubt that the main upward pressure on the market was inflation. It was probably low interest rates (aside from the benefits to tech of stay-at-home policies).

Anyway, here's what happened with the NASDAQ vs the NYSE:

NASDAQ peaked at 9,500 on Feb 7 2020, then bottomed out at 6,879 on March 20 2020, then was up to 16,000 on Nov 19 2021, and is at 11,600 today. So, the NASDAQ shot up 68% during the pandemic from its pre-pandemic peak. Now it's fallen and is only 22% up from its pre-pandemic peak.

Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 12.58.19 AM.png

In contrast, the NYSE peaked at 13,913 in Dec 2019, fell to 10,301 in March 2020, peaked at 16,800 in March 2022, and today is at 15,962. So, it only rose 21% during the pandemic. And it's still 14% up from its pre-pandemic peak.

Screenshot 2023-01-28 at 1.03.33 AM.png

Long story short: the pandemic was great for tech stocks. But now the party is over. Actually, it sort of looks like if the NASDAQ had continued to grow through the pandemic years at the same rate as before, it would be where it is now.

So, I think the tech layoffs are sector-wide and due to outside forces. I don't think it informs us much about the natural lifecycle of monopolies.
 
Pretty good analysis of TikTok (takes a while to get rolling and could be shorter imo, but ya...). :-)

What TikTok Has Done To Internet Videos


 
Jim Feeley said:
Pretty good analysis of TikTok (takes a while to get rolling and could be shorter imo, but ya...). :-)

What TikTok Has Done To Internet Videos
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Is there a part 2? :2vrolijk_08:

That video just about sums it up.
However remember for many users "the internet" is only 15 years old. (Facebook/Youtube etc) for a few it is a whole 30 years old (Web browsers inthe mid 90s) I know some of us remember pre HTTP days and dial up but we are "old people" who don't understand TikTok :)
 
TikTok is the most popular social media app for young Americans, according to a survey that finds its lead over YouTube has only widened since it took over as the top app in 2020.

Qustodio said Americans ages 4 to 18, on average, used TikTok 107 minutes each day, an amount that is 60% longer than the time they spent on YouTube, at 67 minutes.
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https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/8/tiktok-is-dominant-app-for-young-americans-besting/

PS. Abe, "low interest rates" and "inflation" is one and the same.
 
DLD said:
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/feb/8/tiktok-is-dominant-app-for-young-americans-besting/

PS. Abe, "low interest rates" and "inflation" is one and the same.
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Wow. Kids are averaging 3 hours daily of TikTok/YouTube combined before we even talk about video games, other streaming sites, or traditional TV.

Low interest rates is not exactly the same as inflation, although they're connected. Anyway, if you look at how much higher the NASDAQ rose during the pandemic vs the NYSE (68% vs 21%), one could infer that this reflects how pandemic conditions and responses advantaged the tech industry temporarily.
 
DLD said:
PS. Abe, "low interest rates" and "inflation" is one and the same.
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They are polar opposites.
For years we had low inflation and low interest rates.
Now we have inflation and higher interest rates.

unless you mean that interest rates are often put up to try and curb inflation?
 
By dropping the rate below market, central banks infuse an economy with money via a debt creation. This was known many, many years ago by David Ricardo, who was the British economist of note rather than the despicable John Maynard Keynes.
 
DLD said:
By dropping the rate below market, central banks infuse an economy with money via a debt creation. This was known many, many years ago by David Ricardo, who was the British economist of note rather than the despicable John Maynard Keynes.
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How do you derive the market rate for debt? Doesn't it depend on where the FED sets its rates to begin with? Anyway, I believe that lower rates bolster the stock market both because they encourage debt-fueled expansion by business and because they make savings accounts less attractive than equities
 
ahalpert said:
How do you derive the market rate for debt?
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That's the point. You don't. Too many variables. In the 19th century, when the US was on the gold standard, it was 3%. But there was no inflation and prices generally declined 3% a year. So, "inflation + 3%" is a reasonable estimate. The Bureau of labor and Statistics, naturally, undercounts the inflation/CPI rate (a practice which started in the 80's but exploded in the 90's thanks to the Boskin Commission)
 
DLD said:
That's the point. You don't. Too many variables. In the 19th century, when the US was on the gold standard, it was 3%. But there was no inflation and prices generally declined 3% a year. So, "inflation + 3%" is a reasonable estimate. The Bureau of labor and Statistics, naturally, undercounts the inflation/CPI rate (a practice which started in the 80's but exploded in the 90's thanks to the Boskin Commission)
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The government discovered they could under report inflation and print more money. By printing more money they devalue the currency, which decreases the value of the national debt. In practice this would be like if I borrowed 1 million from you and I double the money supply now the dollar value is half so essentially I owe you now 500,000 and I can use the money printed to pay you back and still have money left over. The public has no idea what's going on. What a funny racket the government has.
 
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Peter C. said:
The government discovered they could under report inflation and print more money. By printing more money they devalue the currency, which decreases the value of the national debt. In practice this would be like if I borrowed 1 million from you and I double the money supply now the dollar value is half so essentially I owe you now 500,000 and I can use the money printed to pay you back and still have money left over. The public has no idea what's going on. What funny racket the government has.
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Don't forget the ever diminishing value of the retirement benefits, which are indexed to the CPI.
 
DLD said:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/h...185632229.html

House committee approves bill that could lead to a TikTok ban in the US
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Wellcome to the Club say Russia, China and North Korea. These countries, like the USA, restrict sites their citizens can see.....

So what happens when other countries start banning "US spy apps" like facebook, whatsapp, google etc.....
Well Russia, China and North Korea do now ny why should't others?


Just playing Devil's Advocatre here but you can see the why it will go.
 
JAMedia said:
Wellcome to the Club say Russia, China and North Korea. These countries, like the USA, restrict sites their citizens can see.....

So what happens when other countries start banning "US spy apps" like facebook, whatsapp, google etc.....
Well Russia, China and North Korea do now ny why should't others?


Just playing Devil's Advocatre here but you can see the why it will go.
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I've come around against the Tik Tok ban. Really, it makes no sense. If you want to ban it from government devices, then fine. They've already done that.

What other argument is there to ban it? That it hoovers up consumer data? Then why not ban Facebook as well. I could envision a broader data privacy bill. But absent that, this is just protectionism.

One could also make the argument that it's a one-sided trade war for the US to permit the use of Tik Tok when China has banned American tech services including "Gmail, Google, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and others," but as far as I know, that is not the argument being made.
 
ahalpert said:
What other argument is there to ban it? ... Then why not ban Facebook as well.
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Don't give them any ideas.

Arkansas announces lawsuits against parent companies of Facebook, Instagram, TikTok

The first lawsuit claims that Meta, which is the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, has concealed the addictive nature of its algorithms on its platforms, especially its effect on children.
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https://www.4029tv.com/article/arkansas-lawsuit-facebook-instagram-tiktok/43442989#
 
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