The shift to 4K is happening much faster than the move to HD did

joe1946

joe1946

Veteran
The transition from standard definition televisions to high-definition sets seems like it happened in the blink of an eye yet in reality, it was a drawn-out process that carried on for many years. The shift from HD to 4K, as it turns out, isn’t taking near as long.

During a recent press event in San Francisco, Consumer Technology Association CEO Gary Shapiro said that at year four of the transition to HD, they only sold 2.9 million units. Now, four years into the jump to 4K, that figure has climbed to just over 15 million units.


What’s more, Shapiro said that four out of every 10 units shipped this year – and nearly ever set over 50 inches – will be of the 4K variety.


The rapid adoption of 4K technology is largely a result of lower prices. In 2015, the average 4K television sold for $1,048 but this year, it has dropped to just $861.


The availability of 4K content also shouldn’t be overlooked. When 4K sets first arrived in 2012, there was hardly any native content to speak of. While live broadcasts are still airing in HD, all of Netflix’s original content has made the jump to 4K. Rival Amazon is doing the same, making sure its new original content is also filmed in 4K quality.


All things considered, this holiday season is likely to be a big one for 4K televisions.
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http://www.techspot.com/news/66398-shift-4k-happening-much-faster-than-move-hd.html

I think this Holiday season there will be 4K TVs sold at amazingly low prices and the floodgates will open on low priced consumer 4K cameras . Pro 4K camera prices are starting to drop and that should continue as volume picks up.
 
This kills me because I worked for a company that created training programs and business sims for a lot of Fortune 500s, including companies like Sony and Samsung. One of the business simulations we did was to run the television (not production, the branch that manufactures television sets) branch of Sony for a year. With the real budgets, division heads, meetings, strategies, etc. I was curious about Sony's business model, why introduce new television sets almost monthly? In going through the business simulation, that truly is their business strategy against the Koreans (Samsung and LG), flood that mass market with brand new models, obsolete those models 1-3 months later and introduce yet new models 3-4 times a year. Crazy business model. This is why we have cheap 4K sets everywhere. Not because they are needed or wanted, 4K and anything above it, from a consumer viewpoint. It is purely a marketing move. 4K is basically a waste and being on the production side, we are the tail the dog is wagging. It's bad because 4K and greater creates more production problems than it solves. Makes talent look worse, makes hair and makeup more difficult, makes production design and props lives more difficult, even the sound mixer because it is harder to hide lavs on talent. Makes post more expensive and difficult. It's a shame that we have all had to buy into this 4k, 6k, 8k and eventually 16k and 32k crap instead of making cameras that create BETTER images. We have already surpassed the resolution needed, we are just in a pointless resolution war that is hamstringing much of the true progress in imaging devices because it is all just about more resolution and more bit space. There is a lot more to a good image than just resolution and bit rate.
 
puredrifting said:
This kills me because I worked for a company that created training programs and business sims for a lot of Fortune 500s, including companies like Sony and Samsung. One of the business simulations we did was to run the television (not production, the branch that manufactures television sets) branch of Sony for a year. With the real budgets, division heads, meetings, strategies, etc. I was curious about Sony's business model, why introduce new television sets almost monthly? In going through the business simulation, that truly is their business strategy against the Koreans (Samsung and LG), flood that mass market with brand new models, obsolete those models 1-3 months later and introduce yet new models 3-4 times a year. Crazy business model. This is why we have cheap 4K sets everywhere. Not because they are needed or wanted, 4K and anything above it, from a consumer viewpoint. It is purely a marketing move. 4K is basically a waste and being on the production side, we are the tail the dog is wagging. It's bad because 4K and greater creates more production problems than it solves. Makes talent look worse, makes hair and makeup more difficult, makes production design and props lives more difficult, even the sound mixer because it is harder to hide lavs on talent. Makes post more expensive and difficult. It's a shame that we have all had to buy into this 4k, 6k, 8k and eventually 16k and 32k crap instead of making cameras that create BETTER images. We have already surpassed the resolution needed, we are just in a pointless resolution war that is hamstringing much of the true progress in imaging devices because it is all just about more resolution and more bit space. There is a lot more to a good image than just resolution and bit rate.
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Also true. The point is people denying only because they don't want upgrade their workflow. I mean, people willing to impose to the world their own inner interest.

I love 4K and I still watch the movies I like in my 1024 wide projector. I can guarantee you 4K downsampled looks great there!

BTW, I've just watched The Bridge On The River Kwai 4K remastered, they say, there.
 
As I'd mentioned before, the transition from SD to HD was also simultaneous with the transition from tube based TV and rear projectors to the flat panels. And the early flat panels were very expensive in relative terms until the second half of the oughties. I recall a 720p 37" off-brand was still selling for over $1,000 just prior to the 2006 World Cup.

The transition to 4K has been much easier because the pixel density on a 40" 4K set is around 100 per inch while the smartphone displays usually exceed 300 and several exceed 500 PPI. In other words, from the manufacturing standpoint, there's very little extra cost to the 4K TV set, which is why you can see 40" off-brand models selling for under $300 already.

The problem has been the availability of content. Netflix/Amazon streams can stutter and the Blu-Ray disc player have only been released a few months ago. But, when purchasing a "living room" TV, a middle class family can easily afford a 50"+ 4K set, usually equipped with the streaming platform.

The various streaming services are also picking up steam. From Hulu, Amazon and Netflix to Sling TV and HBO-to-go, the development of a total on-demand infrastructure is as important as the hardware it is being watched on.
 
I have to agree with Puredrifting. 4k is just part of the megapixel craze where more has to be better. I would have preferred to have another generation of awesome 1080p cameras than this interim 4k period where the hardware is kind of being taxed too much and computers are woefully under powered. Who wants to edit a 4k multicamera shoot? How long does it take to render out a 4k x.264 file? How many people actually delivery anything 4k to paying clients? How many cameras have a "crop" 4k mode? How many have all of the stabilization features in 4k vs 1080p?

Sure the cameras will get better and better but it seems everything else is kind of lagging behind. This whole thing has been driven by TV sets which are getting cheaper and cheaper. Price and fear is why 4k is being adopted faster than HD.
 
Hey, we live in the cloud age. Storage, so, data, both have never been so cheap as today. Processing power follows up. It doesn't make sense to be stuck on lower only because there's still room for IQ route on better DR, color sampling and so on. Because today happens in a different way, it doesn't mean tomorrow won't be another one. Let's keep vision on future, OK? Or we'd have the typical BMW vs Lada sample to pop up this time at capitalist side as well...

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...pretty ir(c)onic, isn't it? ;-)
 
PS

PS

And I think, from my example above-posted a couple of posts earlier, you all realized I love old stuff, as same as my avatar over there on the left... LOL

With no need for the ultimate gadget to enjoy it either :-)
 
No need to say anything about stiffing innovation. This 4k thing is being driven from the bottom up. Consumer products are leading the charge. Sony seems like the only company to fully integrate their line all the way up. Kudos to them.
 
Sony had to or would die. At acquisition side, I praise Panasonic on their 4/3" format series. 10-bit 4:2:2 + 4K/60p even 8-bit is already a milestone for $1,500 based on really affordable good quality glass options route. They've pushed the boundaries. Let's not forget Canon either, with their C-line following the DSLR revolution brought by 5DII in the end of last decade. Without mention Magic Lantern, GHs hacks. Who's next? Olympus promises now 5K/60p RAW burst with 5-axis and decent AF + 'continuous' 4K@237Mbps... Under $1,000 or so.
 
Bassman2003 said:
No need to say anything about stiffing innovation. This 4k thing is being driven from the bottom up. Consumer products are leading the charge. Sony seems like the only company to fully integrate their line all the way up. Kudos to them.
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You may give Sony kudos but they may not be around very long to accept them. Not sure how into financial and business side of things you are, but both Sony and Nikon, as corporations, have been barely hanging by a thread for the past 3-5 years. One thing we learned in the busines simulation pre-work done before the class, was that Sony has had a very tough time of it financially and has been near bankruptcy for a while and recently, Nikon's over reliance on Sony imagers has almost ran them into the ground. Both of those brands very well could be gone/sold off ot others in the next 3-5 years.

Nothing is permanent in the electronics business and the giants have and will continue to fall. What I gleaned from going through the simulation is that their consumer television strategy has evolved to a war tactic and the Japanese are at war with the Koreans in both electroncis and cars. I'm not implying that Sonys consumer TV strategy or pro video strategy are the predominate factors in their financial woes, but they definitely have been part of them. Also, there has a been a leadership vacuum in the organization for years now. There have been a lot of bad business decisions at Sony for long time, whereas I have seen a lot of strategic market blunders at Nikon. They are too old school Japanese, just like Canon, too slow to move and have failed to capitalize on market opportunities in imaging (like consumer and pro video, mirrorless, just to name a couple). They have also relied on Sony for sensors for a long time and the earthquakes have really hit those factories hard, tightening up supply, especially for third party buyers like Nikon.
 
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Bassman2003 said:
I have to agree with Puredrifting. 4k is just part of the megapixel craze where more has to be better. I would have preferred to have another generation of awesome 1080p cameras than this interim 4k period where the hardware is kind of being taxed too much and computers are woefully under powered. Who wants to edit a 4k multicamera shoot? How long does it take to render out a 4k x.264 file? How many people actually delivery anything 4k to paying clients? How many cameras have a "crop" 4k mode? How many have all of the stabilization features in 4k vs 1080p? ...
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I happen to prefer "mediocre" 4K to "mediocre" 1080p. And I don't even have a 4K monitor (or a TV set) but a 4K image is much more pleasing to my eye.

As to cameras, there are plenty of 2K, 4K and everything in between. A downsampled 4K-into-2K image also looks better as 4:4:4.

Emanuel said:
Because todayOr we'd have the typical BMW vs Lada sample to pop up this time at capitalist side as well...
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When I was a kid, Lada was an epitome of success. My dad could only afford a Moskvich 403 and one of my granduncles still had Moskvich 401, which was an exact replica of Opel Kadett of 1938. The Soviets took the tooling from the occupied plant after the war and voila ... they kept it in production into the late 1950's.

And, this is the model we had in the 70's. It was old then. By now, it is a classic.



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puredrifting said:
Nikon's over reliance on Sony imagers has almost ran them into the ground. Both of those brands very well could be gone/sold off ot others in the next 3-5 years.
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Sony had to divest a lot of non-performing assets. The problem there isn't the production but the super-heavy tail end. Sony's market capitalization is around $43B, so they're still a heavy hitter in a lot of fields.


whereas I have seen a lot of strategic market blunders at Nikon. They are too old school Japanese, just like Canon, too slow to move and have failed to capitalize on market opportunities in imaging (like conusmer and pro video, mirrorless, just to name a couple). They have also relied on Sony for sensors for a long time and the earthquakes have really hit those factories hard, tightening up supply, especially for third party buyers like Nikon.
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Nikon's main problem with their Sony contract was that it limited their choice of product and, when the push into 4K happened, they remained on the sidelines while the videocentric GH4 and A7RII/SII began to dominate the sales charts. And what is fascinating is that they must have felt more comfortable making these deals with another Japanese company rather than going to another contractor - there are a lot of sensor foundries and developers in the world - and actually competing for their market share. Maybe that Samsung alliance wasn't a fantasy but, even so, it takes a while to put together a solid line of products when switching from major subcontractors.
 
and then there is this...


"8K product news has been steadily trickling into the public’s eye ever since Japan pledged to broadcast the 2020 Olympics in 8K. At the Canon Expo in New York in the fall of 2015, the company showed both an 8K video camera and an 8K monitor. Sharp is already marketing a 4K TV—the Aquos 4K Next LC-80XU30—that can upscale a 4K signal to 8K. As we edge closer to 2020 Olympics, it’s a given that we’ll see even more 8K hardware.

That raises the inevitable question: Is 8K coming too fast on the heels of 4K?

While it will be years for 8K to reach maturity, there is a risk, however modest, that a growing awareness of 8K could dampen consumer enthusiasm for 4K. Despite strong growth, 4K TV shipments represent a relatively small percentage of overall TV demand. The more the word “8K” trickles into the public lexicon, the more consumers may wonder why they need a 4K TV when the next big thing is already looming on the horizon. "

http://www.dtcreports.com/weeklyriff/2016/01/25/will-8k-strangle-4k-in-the-crib/

The wow factor from SD to HD was significant. An HD picture stopped you in your tracks. It was such a huge improvement from SD tube tv. You really, really wanted HD. You HAD to have HD.

With 4k the wow factor isn't as big. You can show a 4k picture to many consumers and they won't even notice anything all that superior to HD. The reaction will be one of "Okay, what am I supposed to be looking at? Is there something special I am supposed to be seeing??" The increase in resolution from HD to 4k isn't as great as the increase in resolution from SD to HD. People are purchasing the 4k sets but it's more of a "well, why not?" than a "GOT to have that!!". The price of 4k sets has dropped to the point where in some instances, and with sale prices, you can get a 4k set for the same price as a an HD set of the same size. 4k sales are approaching 50% of tv sales because half the large tv's in the stores are 4k. It has become harder NOT to purchase 4k. There are buyers who purchase a 4k set without much intention of watching anything in 4k or desire to watch anything in 4k. And they aren't future-proofing with the purchase. The set just happens to be 4k capable.
 
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8K is what you'll see on large information/advertising displays in major shopping malls, in theaters for important pay-per-view events, such as boxing matches and live opera, and super high end private screen rooms. By 2020, they may begin to appear in sports bars. The images will be either streamed or played off servers.

Of course, by 2020, almost everything out to be streamable in one form or another.
 
The transition from standard definition televisions to high-definition sets seems like it happened in the blink of an eye
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Huh? Hmm. Ho ho ho heh. Ha. Ha ha ha. BWAH!Hahahhahahhahhahhahahhahhahhhahhhhahhhahhahhhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahhhahhahhaha!

Ha! Ha hahaha!

Cough.

Wheeeeeeeez!

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Let's see. In other news, your 5" phone can do HD. So your 50" TV can do 20K, no problem. The manufacturers are in a perfect position to trickle out technology for the next 100 years.
 
4K TV at the screen size and distance most people will be using it is a waste of time. For home projection, 4k will be ideal. For VR, 4K is SD quality, and this is what's really going to drive higher resolution capture and display technologies.
 
CTA is also excited about all the next generation technologies — HDR, wide color gamut, higher frame rates — though most of CTA’s work to date has been centered on HDR. CTA estimates roughly 10 percent of 4K sets shipped this year will be HDR-compatible, rising to 23 percent in 2017.
As for content, the first Ultra HD Blu-ray Disc players are now on the market with a growing selection of top movies available including box office hits such as “The Revenant” and “The Martian.” CTA forecasts 2016 4K UHD Blu-ray sales of 700,000 units sold and $63 million in revenue, with many more UHD Blu-ray Disc player announcements expected at CES 2017.
Netflix has announced plans to stream 600 hours of 4K content by end of 2016 and will stream HDR by end of this year. Amazon has been streaming select TV shows, movies and specials in 4K and NBC, DirecTV and Dish all showed the Summer Olympics in 4K. Sony and Intel just announced a 4K streaming service, but only for Sony TVs.
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http://www.twice.com/news/tv/4k-era-has-arrived-mainstream-ctas-joseph/63031
 
This is why I am skeptical about buying any camera that doesn't have 4k, I want my investment to be future proof, but some manufacturers don't seem to get it. For example the the Canon 80d and 7d II, would have sold like hot cake if they had 4k. Even the EOS C100 II is only 1080. On the other hand companies like Panasonic is releasing $500 cameras with 4k.
 
When music CDs came out quality surpassed our hearing threshold. Everything after that in the music world has been innovation with delivery formats, mostly at lower than CD quality. I think the same thing is happening in video with the jump from 4K to 8K. Unless viewed on a huge screen you will not be able to percieve the difference.
 
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