Most marketing departments try to have several different options in the development pipeline so they can respond rapidly to changing market conditions. Canon proved that they could do this when they responded to the D90.
And that is the wild card in all of this - after Nikon started the race they have done nothing new. Do you think they are sitting still? They have no pro division to protect. There were rumors that Nikon was working on RAW video for 2010 introduction. Whatever their response is it will bring a quick response from Canon...
Now assume that that happens, what will differentiate high and low end DSLR video? Could be audio controls, could be RAW, could be the dynamic range war just started by RED. In any case there has to be some reason to justify a pro model.
I think that we are entering a time when the pace of development well be accelerated due to quick responses to competition. In such an environment it is nearly impossible to predict what will flow. I think the days of the video capablities being roughly equal across product lines is pretty much over, but at the same time the video capabilities of the low end will be the prime battle ground...
Some good points. One interesting thing to bear in mind is that the pro-DSLRs normally have a long product life - typically over 2 years - and so have less ability to respond to new technology than do lower end DSLRs. Once the Canon 1Ds mkIV comes out that will probably be it for the Canon pro-DSLRs for the next couple of years - leaving only the lower level 5D mkIII as a means with which to implement better video. Because the Nikon D3 series have had only minor upgrades it does leave the door open for a complete replacement.
I think one of the things that is likely to change in the near future is the image processors in DSLRs. Currently most of the image processors were probably designed solely for stills and the manufacturers are just using what is there for video. The next round of image processors are likely to be specifically designed for video and this could result in a big difference in the way DSLRs handle video. It will be interesting to see if the 1Ds mkIV uses Digic 4 processors, or changes to the Digic 5. When the Digic 4 processor appeared in the 5D mkII it was strongly hinted by Canon that this was a stop gap on the way to the Digic 5 (V), but it is interesting that so far the Digic 4 is all that has appeared, even in the long product life 1D mkIV. Newer image processors could aid something like the capture of video RAW. The manufacturers appear to like sharing components like image processors across across their DSLRs, presumably because the scale of economy thing ensures much greater profitability with electronic components that are produced in great numbers. The cost is all in R&D and not so much production.