Steven Spielberg Predicts 'Implosion' of Film Industry

David G. Smith

David G. Smith

Steak Knife Member
From The Hollywood Reporter:

"Steven Spielberg on Wednesday predicted an "implosion" in the film industry is inevitable, whereby a half dozen or so $250 million movies flop at the box office and alter the industry forever. What comes next -- or even before then -- will be price variances at movie theaters, where "you're gonna have to pay $25 for the next Iron Man, you're probably only going to have to pay $7 to see Lincoln." He also said that Lincoln came "this close" to being an HBO movie instead of a theatrical release. ..."

"...George Lucas agreed that massive changes are afoot, including film exhibition morphing somewhat into a Broadway play model, whereby fewer movies are released, they stay in theaters for a year and ticket prices are much higher. His prediction prompted Spielberg to recall that his 1982 film E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial stayed in theaters for a year and four months. ..."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/steven-spielberg-predicts-implosion-film-567604
 
Well this isn't 1979 anymore. 100's of cable channels, DVD/blu-ray, Netflix, YouTube, digital downloads, the Internet as a social device in general, video games, (e)books, productivity/creativity apps and movie theaters.

There are a lot more options these days, plus everything that was around back then. It takes a lot more to get people's attention.
 
They can try to sell movie tickets at Broadway musical prices, but I'm not sure how many people will buy them.
As it stands, I'm already mostly priced out of the market: I go the the theater to see a few big movies every year, but apart from that I wait patiently for the bluray to come out.
 
Movie tickets here are already $19

$250million dollars movies deserve to flop because they generally suck.
 
Actually, the real model for how things can work is already here in France. In Paris there are at least 75 cinemas. What they have done is banded together generally and now for 20 Euros per month you have a pass which allows you to go to them unlimitedly. You can see any film that is showing any time you want or as many times as you want. What this does is guarantee the cinemas that the spectator will come to the cinema at least twice a month and creates a very loyal, connected public. It also creates a film viewing culture and creative atmosphere for those who need to study and work in film.

That is the real model for the future, especially concerning Cineplexes. It also allows small indy style cinemas to continue to exist and be part of the game. Very smart.
The truth is that the communal experience of watching something on a huge screen with great sound is unique and still has value. The seats are filled here and it is worth it to the spectator even if they can go home and download the film later. Never thought I would be saying this, but America really needs to catch up with Europe.
 
France and Germany also have very good government film financing programmes too... I gotta get outta here.
 
We have a subscription based non-profit theater near us. That is a very good model because the subscription provides money for a really great infrastructure, classes for the community in film and filmmaking, and the opportunity to see docs, Q&As, indies and some of the more commercial stuff, but not the blockbusters. The theaters are fairly small 200 - 300 seats but the screen, seats and sound are first rate.

The subscription keeps the price of the ticket where it should be. I think that the multiplexes and the old distribution model are in trouble. Soderbergh pointed out in his April talk that it is about the marketing.

Cable TV is getting way better and on demand and streaming services are gaining more users. Cinema is no longer the peoples distribution platform. It ain't the 40's where a fella can take in a double featcha for a nickel!

I would like to say that the "community" experience in a theater isn't that grand. It certainly isn't the same as in theater theater. They just don't reach critical mass; too many empty seats. Honestly, when was the last time you were in a movie theater and people laughed out loud in unison? Rare.... It's the huge picture, the 4K projection and the big sound that gets me in there.
 
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Going to the theater for 25 bucks at today's prices? No. In the future that's what a ticket will cost of course just due to inflation.

But a monthly movie theater subscription? Yes! Great idea.

http://mobmov.org/manifesto/

Make your own theater and invite your own friends. I did something similar with a cheap projector I picked up on ebay and it works just fine.
 
Samuel H said:
They can try to sell movie tickets at Broadway musical prices, but I'm not sure how many people will buy them.
As it stands, I'm already mostly priced out of the market: I go the the theater to see a few big movies every year, but apart from that I wait patiently for the bluray to come out.
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Yep. That's me, exactly.
 
Gillvane said:
Going to the theater for 25 bucks at today's prices? No. In the future that's what a ticket will cost of course just due to inflation.

But a monthly movie theater subscription? Yes! Great idea.

http://mobmov.org/manifesto/

Make your own theater and invite your own friends. I did something similar with a cheap projector I picked up on ebay and it works just fine.
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if it's just you and your friends fine, but this is 100% illegal if you let the public see it. Which it should be. You are giving free access to content without the rightsholder's consent. Hard enough to make money on indy films as it is without bozos doing something like this in public places. Plus, I doubt the projection quality is pristine like in a good theater
 
Robert Ruffo said:
if it's just you and your friends fine, but this is 100% illegal if you let the public see it. Which it should be. You are giving free access to content without the rightsholder's consent. Hard enough to make money on indy films as it is without bozos doing something like this in public places. Plus, I doubt the projection quality is pristine like in a good theater
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Actually it's totally legal to invite the public if I made the movie myself :cheesy: or if I have permission from my fellow film makers to show their movies. I certainly have the copyright owners consent if I am the copyright owner of if the copyright owner is standing there beside me saying thanks for showing my film.

The projection quality is NOT pristine, in fact it's crappy, which is great because it ads to the outdoor Drive In feel. This is not THX Dolby Digital etc., but it is great fun. I picked up the FM transmitter for cheap off of Ebay as well. Was shipped to me in an epacket from Hong Kong and it works just fine.

The link is so you can follow the plans if you want to do this set up with your friends. It's pretty easy really. You can get the converter to power your projector and dvd player or laptop at any Best Buy or auto parts store.

you can also run an extension cord from your car and set this up with lawn chairs and a boom box for sound if you don't want to sit in the cars. You're just using your car as a big relatively quiet generator and the gas for idling during a movie is just a few bucks at most.


http://mobmov.org/manifesto/
 
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Robert Ruffo said:
if it's just you and your friends fine, but this is 100% illegal if you let the public see it. Which it should be. You are giving free access to content without the rightsholder's consent. Hard enough to make money on indy films as it is without bozos doing something like this in public places. Plus, I doubt the projection quality is pristine like in a good theater
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Uh oh, here they come again!!!!!!

morality.jpg
 
Robert Ruffo said:
if it's just you and your friends fine, but this is 100% illegal if you let the public see it. Which it should be. You are giving free access to content without the rightsholder's consent. Hard enough to make money on indy films as it is without bozos doing something like this in public places. Plus, I doubt the projection quality is pristine like in a good theater
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hummm....come to Mexico....or latin america in general.. That's how it works....at least as far as costa rica. And sometimes they even play films only playing in festivals ...not even distributed. We call those " for your consideration" because they're cloned off of the disks sent out by the festival judges...and one or two times they show the message "for your consideration". I watched Lincoln before it's US release ! And you can buy 3 dvd's for 4bucks and 3 blurays for 8 ! In my town we have 3 or 4 of those boutique theaters playing cloned dvd's and probably 100 stores selling dvd's. The theaters cost $6 bucks with a drink. But even they have a hard time . Most people just want to watch the films at home on their 52" flatpanels.

The film industry in america is only a reflection of the country at large. Too many greedy people at the top . I'm not condoning or casting aspersions about violation of copyright. The world is only a reflection of what kind of world it's people choose. Spielberg is crying because he won't be able to grant himself a 50 million a year salary. Makes me cry...really !
 
My post about making your own mobile theater has notthing to do with copyright violations.

You can invite just your friends, in which case this is no different than renting a DVD and having your friends over to watch in your living room. You're just watching outside on a projector instead.

OR, you can invite the public to watch movies you made yourself, or movies fellow film makers in your area give you permission to show.

I also did a little film festival at a local bar with submissions from film makers I found on youtube, some ads on film maker blogs, and also local film makers. I thought, bars have projectors (for sports), they would be great for showing films! yea, not so much because people are there to drink alcohol not watch films so much, but the point is you can easily get material that is not a copyright violation.

I found lots of people that were hungry for an audience to see their film productions and didn't want any money in return, just a chance to show their work.
 
Gillvane...have you ever seen the film "Little Treasure" ! I highly recommend it. It's about an american projectionist driving around rural mexico playing old films on sheets in small villages . Me and some friends tried it once ...playing cantinflas movies !

Hummm....looking up the film on imdb, it gives it a 4.7...which is why I don't care for general audience reviews. Great film !
 
Government subsidized “cultural” programs in Paris have almost no relevance to the future of commercial content distribution – especially in the United States.

Online distribution is the future and changes everything. The current forms of online distribution are still primitive and in something of an infant state. The vision of cable companies is that you'll buy everything on demand – from them. The vision of film studios is that you'll buy content on demand – from them. The low fee subscription model (“Netflix”) appears to be acceptable to consumers – but – the profit margin is entirely unpalatable to content producers/distributors – and there is, in fact, an effort to see Netflix sink (and it may happen). Another questionable experiment is the “Hulu” model, an alliance of content producers, but this is also problematic on other levels.

So – what is inevitable is that in about ten years you will sit down in front of a very large screen (projected or much cheaper flat panel) in your living room, and you'll tell it (by voice) to list every John Wayne movie ever made – and it will – and you'll tell it which one you want to watch. That's the future. Exactly how we're going to get there and who you'll pay and how much you'll pay – is the question that everyone in the business is trying to figure out.

What the above means is – the old time distribution to theaters – isn't the future. And, as I don't like paying twenty dollars for popcorn and hearing audience members talk to the screen – I don't care.

In America, the dramatic improvement of home theaters combined with online content distribution – changes many of the current content distribution models – drastically. Change is on the way.

And, change is nothing new. The silent era began with hundreds or thousands of small independent outfits creating content. This was replaced by theater chains buying studios to produce their own content (“the studio system”). This was decimated when the Federal government forced theaters to be independent of the studios. Television hit both the studios and theaters. VHS (video cassettes) kicked both TV and theaters in the crotch, while breathing life into content producing studios (both big and small). And, now we're moving into an era of online distribution – content instantly delivered, on demand, to the consumer – meaning all specialized markets and “mass” nothing.

Finally, I will note that this new coming era opens up an entirely new universe of distribution possibilities for you – the independent producer. In a decade, it's possible that you can produce your movie over the weekend and have it available in every living room in the civilized world by Monday. And, the producers who can succeed in marketing their content – will discover profit margins beyond our wildest imaginations. Logically – this means the losers will be big budget studios chained to union regulations. Logically – this means that true artists with their Canon DSLR or hacked GH whatever will make millions – overnight. In a way – we're returning to the first silent film era model of content production – hundreds or thousands of lower budget independent producers making their own specialized content for targeted markets/audiences – except – bigger in every way – because the market is every living room and/or hand held “tablet” in America.

As for me – I embrace the future and the inevitable new opportunities.
 
Andrew Gupta said:
Finally, I will note that this new coming era opens up an entirely new universe of distribution possibilities for you – the independent producer. In a decade, it's possible that you can produce your movie over the weekend and have it available in every living room in the civilized world by Monday. And, the producers who can succeed in marketing their content – will discover profit margins beyond our wildest imaginations. Logically – this means the losers will be big budget studios chained to union regulations. Logically – this means that true artists with their Canon DSLR or hacked GH whatever will make millions – overnight. In a way – we're returning to the first silent film era model of content production – hundreds or thousands of lower budget independent producers making their own specialized content for targeted markets/audiences – except – bigger in every way – because the market is every living room and/or hand held “tablet” in America.

As for me – I embrace the future and the inevitable new opportunities.
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That's here right now with Vimeo on demand and others.

http://vimeo.com/ondemand

I don't know what a "true" artist is, or if there are fake artists, but the cost of the camera is the smallest part of a Hollywood budget. The biggest cost has always been labor.

The cast and crew are the biggest costs in making a movie. A hacked GH2 doesn't change that one bit. It makes your small production look better than a soap opera video of the past, but the people are what make it look like a quality movie not the camera. Wardrobe, set design, make up, hair, grips, electrics, DP, Gaffer, A list actors, editors, Colorist, Special FX post production, and so on.

No one pays to watch short films and I don't think you're going to make a very good feature in a weekend. That's stretching it even for the old spaghetti westerns.
 
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Gillvane said:
The cast and crew are the biggest costs in making a movie. A hacked GH2 doesn't change that one bit. It makes your small production look better than a soap opera video of the past, but the people are what make it look like a quality movie not the camera. Wardrobe, set design, make up, hair, grips, electrics, DP, Gaffer, A list actors, editors, Colorist, Special FX post production, and so on.

No one pays to watch short films and I don't think you're going to make a very good feature in a weekend. That's stretching it even for the old spaghetti westerns.
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Respectfully, this has little to do with my main two points -- but -- in a new age of specialized content for target markets produced by smaller (lower budget) production companies -- old style union "Wardrobe, set design, make up, hair, grips, electrics, DP, Gaffer, A list actors, editors, Colorist, Special FX post production, and so on" are going to be collecting unemployment insurance in Southern California -- spending some of their time complaining about all things new and remembering how all things old were better.
 
Andrew Gupta said:
Respectfully, this has little to do with my main two points -- but -- in a new age of specialized content for target markets produced by smaller (lower budget) production companies -- old style union "Wardrobe, set design, make up, hair, grips, electrics, DP, Gaffer, A list actors, editors, Colorist, Special FX post production, and so on" are going to be collecting unemployment insurance in Southern California -- spending some of their time complaining about all things new and remembering how all things old were better.
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Maybe we're talking about different things. I mean feature films. I'm not sure what sort of specialized content you are referring to. Even a cooking show has a decent size crew if you want to make it look really professional.

I don't know what unions have to do with anything. You want a director concentrating on his shots and the talent, a DP in charge of the lighting, and so on. Has nothing to do with unions.

A list actors are A list actors becaues the public wants to see them. I don't know how you're going to change that with specialized content.
 
Gillvane said:
Even a cooking show has a decent size crew if you want to make it look really professional.
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I expect we were writing past one another.

Regarding your quote above, I suggest, with a smile, that 50% of the footage created by "aspiring filmmakers" today on Youtube looks better than 90% of television from 1994. Smaller, leaner, and more efficient production companies of both the present and the future will succeed in terms of content that looks "really professional."
 
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