Should I wait for the AF100"A"?

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bhdfield

Well-known member
I post this with some hesitance, for I fear the trolling or irrational responses which it may entice. But...damn the torpedoes.

I was always pleased that I purchased my HVX after the newer "A" model was released, as it incorporated a better sensor, and a wider lens. Considering the AF100 camera is rather new ground for Panasonic and really the whole industry, there may be compromises incorporated into its design and function accordingly. I suspect evolution and improvement will be rapid initially. It's the first of its generation (in this price bracket), and I wonder if Panasonic's next effort at this line could incorporate significant improvements in design, features, and performance, that there simply is not time to incorporate this close to their shipping date. Given this, and Sony hitting the market in a few months with their own competitor, how long might it be before Panasonic would revise this first AF100 model? Six months? A year?
 
If you need it now, buy the AF-100. If not, wait until you do "need" it and buy what's best for your needs at that time.
 
Yes, that's the $5000 question. What I'm hoping for would be some insight in to how rapidly Panasonic has historically updated popular models (which this will no doubt will be). What was the cycle between the HVX200, and the HVX200A, for instance?
 
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If I remember correctly, it was a good 16 months between the 200 and the 200A. (Barry or Jan will correct me if I'm wrong.)

Remember that the AF-100 will be available for rental shortly after release. It might not be easy to get a hold of, but I know a number of rental houses with multiple AF-100s on order. So that's always an option.
 
Well if it's a year and a half I think I can answer my own question and say, "nope". I can make enough money from a $5000 camera in 16 months to justify taking the risk, especially since lenses will work on any updated model in this line.
 
bhdfield said:
Well if it's a year and a half I think I can answer my own question and say, "nope". I can make enough money from a $5000 camera in 16 months to justify taking the risk, especially since lenses will work on any updated model in this line.
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Good point many people that buy a new 4/3 or s35mm video camera like the AF-100 will end up spending much more on lenses which will still be in use years after the AF-100 is replaced.
 
bhdfield said:
Given this, and Sony hitting the market in a few months with their own competitor, how long might it be before Panasonic would revise this first AF100 model? Six months? A year?
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There is all the time the possibility around that the moment you make a decision for one girl the other one with the bigger sensors comes into the joint ... Tough ****. Too many girls. Too many big sensors.... ;-)

Make the decision based on the answer to

a) do you need a camera - this camera - within the next year?
b) does it fit your budget?
c) will your -probably more expensive - other equipment live on when your camera is long gone?
d) where are you in danger that your investment takes you "hostage".

For me the the main risk is: Do I go for the MFT-System and buy lenses that may only work with it. As for me the lenses I own are more important than the camera is. I made the decision that the MFT-System is here to stay. Wrong? Right? We will see. So I own three MFT-lenses, the other five are 35 mm photo glasses. The camera itself is.... sorry to say: An addition to this family of lenses.

And yes, there will b a 101 A or a 202 around in...... the not so far future. However we define "not so far".
 
tipota said:
For me the the main risk is: Do I go for the MFT-System and buy lenses that may only work with it. As for me the lenses I own are more important than the camera is.
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The same for me. I try to buy lens which I can use with an adaptor, so I bought a Voigtlander 50 1.1 which has a Leica mount so I could use it with a Scarlet or a Sony S35 in the next future if it turns to be that the s35 based system is a better system. I am not sure if to buy the new Voigtlander 25 0.95 because it has a m43 mount. I don't know actually if it would be possible to use a m43 lens on a S35 sensor. Can samebody explain?
 
There is one absolute certainty, as certain as anything in our business, that is: if you buy an AF100 now, it's a lot safer bet that the new, improved model won't be coming out a month later. Wait a year or more, and all bets are off. As I've said, the AF100 can't possibly cost you more than $200.00 a month, probably much less, for a year's use.

You can't even go to dinner and a show for $200.00. OK, OK, yes you can, but not a very good dinner and not a very good bottle of wine. Certainly no glass of single malt scotch afterwards...

Just order the bloody thing.

Good shooting and best regards,

Leo
 
I was one of the first owners of the HVX200 and I never regretted the purchase. I shot all kinds of stuff on it, including a feature film that won "Best Mystery Feature" at the New York Independent International Film Festival and was nominated for "Best Feature" at the International Christian Film Festival in England. We are currently in negotiation for a DVD distribution deal, and the distributor hasn't complained about the fact that it was shot on a camera that is now old. The stuff I shot with it still looks great to me, and while I might wish I could have shot it on Red or film, I never fretted about the fact that it wasn't shot on the 200A. I honestly don't think it would have made one bit of difference in the overall look of the film. I also didn't think it was enough of an improvement to motivate me to sell my 200 in order to purchase a 200A.
I think of the AF-100 in the same way. I'll get it and shoot like crazy with it, and then there will be a newer model that will come out that may or may not be improved enough to justify an upgrade for me. But it still won't make what I shot with the AF-100 suddenly worthless.
I'm really looking forward to this new camera.
 
Yes, agree with these sentiments. And it can be said with any purchase of almost any product that something better will eventually come along. It's all a question of time vs. cost. And it sure sounds like the AF100 is on the positive side of that equation. If it were a 6-month or less cycle, I'd consider holding back. But as the facts come in, it sounds like a safe investment. And yes, with a typical day rate, we have paid for these small format cameras within a few days of work. So in that sense, it's a silly question. But if I knew Panasonic were rushed to bring this to market, and then come out with a series of fixes for an updated model in 6 months or so, I would wait, simply because I'm still earning good money with the HVX, and still can several months or more from now.
 
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We are still shooting projects with the original HVX200's - which if you listen to some people is 'dead' or 'obsolete' technology because something newer has arrived. But they are still out there making money for me every week.
The 2 AF100's we have on order will probably be making me money 3-5 years into the future as well- even though I'm sure they will be outdated by then. As someone who shoots paying jobs every week, I guess the longevity of a $5,000 camera isn't really the most important part of the equation since it'll be paid for after a job or two - however if I was a struggling start-up or someone who buys the camera for non paying or vanity gigs I would probably ponder the question for a longer period.
 
Let me give an example of how I would kick myself a little a few months from now. If I buy this camera and invest $3k in an outboard SDI recording device, and then find out in 8 months that Panasonic in unveiling a P2 version of the AF100, I would be really pissed. I have two 32gb P2 cards just waiting to record beautiful images from that 4/3" chip in a better codec than the current one offered. I would pay more for the AF100, and wait a little while, for a P2 version. If Panasonic is going after HVX users, as Jan has said several times, and outboard sdi/hdmi recorders are required to get the color space and bit rate of my old HVX, I sure wish they had provided P2, and upped the price by a grand or so if need be.
 
Okay, on product introductions and trying to divine their "upgrade cycle" -- there isn't one, but you will probably be extremely safe in assuming that the current model will remain current for at least a year.

Someone said the HVX200 to HVX200A upgrade happened in 16 months -- nope. The HVX200 came out in Dec. 2005, and the HVX200A was released in July 2008. That's about 30 months or so.

The HPX170 was released in September 2008, and is still a current model. That's 26 months, and no sign of any HPX170A on the horizon.
The HMC150 was released in October 2008, and is still a current model; that's 25 months with no sign of any impending HMC150A happening.

One of the fastest upgrades I can think of was the DVX100 to DVX100A. DVX100 was released September 2002, and the 100A was released December 2003, so that's 15 months. The DVX100B update happened in Oct. 2005, so that's 22 months between the 100A and 100B.

The other fastest upgrade was from the HPX300 to HPX370. HPX300 was introduced February 2009, HPX370 came April 2010, so that's 14 months.

So don't count on seeing an "AF100A" before 2012 at the earliest, and probably more like 2013.
 
bhdfield said:
Let me give an example of how I would kick myself a little a few months from now. If I buy this camera and invest $3k in an outboard SDI recording device, and then find out in 8 months that Panasonic in unveiling a P2 version of the AF100, I would be really pissed. I have two 32gb P2 cards just waiting to record beautiful images from that 4/3" chip in a better codec than the current one offered. I would pay more for the AF100, and wait a little while, for a P2 version. If Panasonic is going after HVX users, as Jan has said several times, and outboard sdi/hdmi recorders are required to get the color space and bit rate of my old HVX, I sure wish they had provided P2, and upped the price by a grand or so if need be.
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Nobody can predict that. If they decide to introduce a new model, like ... a shoulder-mounted P2 version or something, or a 3-D version or ... whatever, well, there's no way to know. They usually telegraph totally new models, but don't breathe a word of upgrades. For example -- the HVX200A just appeared one day. One day the HVX200 was for sale, next day the HVX200A was for sale. But the AF100, we've known about for 7 months. Like the HVX200 before it; we knew about the HVX for 8 months before it was released. If it's a totally new model they give lots of advance notice; if it's an upgrade or revision, it's slipped right into the distribution channel with no advance fanfare.

So if they were going to do an "AF200" or "AF370" or something, we'd probably know long before.

And, frankly -- nobody puts the brakes on development just because you bought the current model. Sony went around selling their F23 to rental houses, and then within six months they introduced the F35. There is no "window of exclusivity" granted to current buyers. When they can make something compelling, they will. Which is why I say and always say and will continue to say: don't buy anything unless you actually need it. And if you need it, then you have no choice of waiting -- you actually need it, so go get it. And then put it to work and make your money back. If you can't make your money back on a $4700 camera in six months, well... you may not be in the right business to be buying a $4700 camera in the first place. So get what you need, put it to work, and quit shopping. When you need something newer/updated, look at the available offerings at that time, pick the best, and go with that.
 
With Sony's announcement of the NXCAM (which I bet they have a better mock up to show at NAB) what are the chances that Panasonic will unveil a new $10,000 P2, AVCIntra, 4/3 chip Camera in the next 5 to 6 months.
 
Yak said:
With Sony's announcement of the NXCAM (which I bet they have a better mock up to show at NAB) what are the chances that Panasonic will unveil a new $10,000 P2, AVCIntra, 4/3 chip Camera in the next 5 to 6 months.
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Even *if* such a thing is announced, it will be at least this time next year before it will arrive… By then our AF100's will have been out on 45-50 shoot days, and I will gladly pay for an upgrade.
 
Well if Panasonic does come out with a P2, AVCIntra, 4/3 chip Camera then the Af-100 will make a great B-Cam all of the lenses should work on ether camera ie. no lose of investment. Until then the HVX 200 can be a B-Cam to the AF-100.
 
I think one thing to take heart in is that Panasonic releases a very good product right out of the gate. It doesn't take 30 builds to get a lot of the kinks worked out. So you can buy now a be assured that you have a fully functioning, well thought out camera. Any revision will add some functionality, but the first release will still be very very good, and usable right out of the box.
 
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