It goes online April 2007. I think BGA (ball grid array) is a component of SD/flash memory.
http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2006/02/07/afx2507844.html
http://www.forbes.com/finance/feeds/afx/2006/02/07/afx2507844.html
P2 prices should drop because of this
- Thread starter CineAlta
- Start date
AppliedVisual
Active member
CineAlta said:
More competition in the market should help. Samsung and others were deomonstrating 8GB and 16GB SD chips at CES, so it shouldn't be too much longer before we see the 32GB and 64GB P2 cards... Probably sometime next year. We'll probably see 16GB cards in the next 5 to 7 months.
As for BGA (yes, Ball Grid Array) is one type of chip "packaging" in which the silicon chip itself is contained. I'm not sure if P2 is designed with a specific packaging format requirement (and if BGA is the one) or if other package forms can be connected to the circuitry in a P2 card.
AppliedVisual said:
Demonstrating one thing and massproducing it according to tight specs and the required quantity is another one. So even if Pana might demo 16GB P2 cards at NAB that does not mean they will be available before year's end.
And don't forget that capacity is one feature of an SD card while transfer speed and error rate are two most important others. Pana always stresses that only 'zero-fault' SD cards can be used in P2 cards. That is (among other things) what makes these cards so expensive.
Plus: Even if Samsung demoes 16 GB SD cards does not indicate any intention from their side to manufacture P2 cards also.
Pe.
The Engineer
Active member
Stop dreaming, guys. What makes you think that a manufacturer will invest in research/production of P2 cards which require very strict conditions for SD cards (speed, fault free etc) when the market for them is as tiny as this? I do not intend to offend anyone, but there are maybe 200-300 P2 users around - how many cards they could possibly sell to cover their costs? This is one of the reasons behind the price of the little monsters and, rememeber, Panasonic is in business to make money not charity. The price of P2 cards will drop significantly when they will run out of fashion, not a day less.HVX is a great little tool with a big iron ball attached to its leg, if you want to free it you must use external storage or be an eccentric millionare.
AppliedVisual
Active member
PKraft said:
Jan already said here in these forums that we should see 16GB P2 cards later this year. 4GB SD chips (even zero-fault rated) are already available on the market. And at a price of about $595 each from discount fendors, we're looking at about $2800 for a 16GB P2 if pricing for it follows suit with 4 and 8 GB cards.
Samsung is the worlds leading producer of SD chips and you can bet that Many, if not most, P2 cards have Samsung chips in them.
AppliedVisual
Active member
The Engineer said:
Considering there were more than 3000 pre-orders for the HVX in the USA alone, I think your 200-300 statistic is way low. It will take a while for P2 production and demand to ramp up a bit, but it will happen. The HVX will drive the demand for P2 and P2 is the technology intended to replace DVCPRO[HD] tape. It's based on commodity components (SD chips and a simple multichannel memory controller in an industry-standard PC card form factor). Not a big deal.
BobDiaz
The Professor
The P2 card is a PCMCIA card. Yes, Panasonic uses SD memory inside the card, BUT if for any reason they needed to change to another memory chip technology, as long as it fits inside the PCMCIA card, it is possible. I'm not saying they will do that, but the option is always open to them.
As with any chip process, there will be a small percentage of any batch that test out as top grade. Those chips are tested, marked, and sold at a higher price. Other chips from the same batch that do not meet this top level, are marked and sold as standard grade chips.
When a chip maker has more top grade chips than orders, they mark the extra as standard grade and sell them for the lower price. IF you are lucky, you might get a high grade chip, but don't count on it.
I worked at TRW in the Microelectronics Group and saw this happening all the time. There is nothing different in the processing of the chips, it's just that some chips come out better than others, thus they become the high grade chips. Over time the process improves and the chances of getting higher grade chips increases.
Bob Diaz
As with any chip process, there will be a small percentage of any batch that test out as top grade. Those chips are tested, marked, and sold at a higher price. Other chips from the same batch that do not meet this top level, are marked and sold as standard grade chips.
When a chip maker has more top grade chips than orders, they mark the extra as standard grade and sell them for the lower price. IF you are lucky, you might get a high grade chip, but don't count on it.
I worked at TRW in the Microelectronics Group and saw this happening all the time. There is nothing different in the processing of the chips, it's just that some chips come out better than others, thus they become the high grade chips. Over time the process improves and the chances of getting higher grade chips increases.
Bob Diaz
Neopics
Well-known member
A ball grid array is simply a form of IC packaging that gives it more connector pins. It's nothing particularly relevant to SD memory cost, capacity or performance.CineAlta said:
Ball Grid Array (Wikipedia)
Tony Torn
Active member
BobDiaz said:
As the industry is leaving PCMCIA behind in favor of smaller express cards, will Panny start creating express sized P2 cards? And will they fit (with a hardware upgrade) in the current camera?
Or will a new camera with smaller card tech be required?
If so, look for a pretty hot market in PCMCIA loading laptops for years to come!
The Engineer
Active member
Ok 4000 CAMERAS, but how many WITH P2 cards? And people who buy SPX cameras buy the panny P2 - there's no room for competition there. It's simply not interesting for someone who makes 100,000s of memory cards in a fully automated process to introduce time consuming selection process to build something that will maybe sel in 100s. Also, don't forget the RAID chip inside those P2 cards - that's not an over the counter item and I doubt panny will simply sell that to anyone as an OEM without a healthy profit. There are other options out there, like CF cards and emerging thechnologies (what do you think Sony is waiting for???) . As for the PCMCIA, in 2-3 years time will be as common as floppy drives today.
Anders Holck
Well-known member
The current AJ-PCD10 5 slot P2 reader is $2600.
The AJ-PCS60G 1 slot[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][/FONT] 60GB P2 store is $1,699.95
The most expensive pro USB2 CF reader is about $100
I bet Panasonic will be able to launch a simple one or two slot USB2 P2 reader below $300 with a pretty good margin, even though it's a low volume item.
The AJ-PCS60G 1 slot[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif][/FONT] 60GB P2 store is $1,699.95
The most expensive pro USB2 CF reader is about $100
I bet Panasonic will be able to launch a simple one or two slot USB2 P2 reader below $300 with a pretty good margin, even though it's a low volume item.
Anders Holck
Well-known member
Also as the Cineporter shows, as long as the interface presented to the camera conforms to to the P2 standard & protocol, the rest is up to the card designer.
There is no need to built the cards the Panasonic way. The RAID technology is only there to conform to the speed benchmark of the current standard (640mbit)
If you could get single chips that will reach the minimum sustained speed, it would be entirely possible to design cards using those.
Unless of couse if Panasonic has a very strict licensing agreement that dictates cards to conform to a reference design.
There is no need to built the cards the Panasonic way. The RAID technology is only there to conform to the speed benchmark of the current standard (640mbit)
If you could get single chips that will reach the minimum sustained speed, it would be entirely possible to design cards using those.
Unless of couse if Panasonic has a very strict licensing agreement that dictates cards to conform to a reference design.
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How does the Thomson Infinity, recording JPEG-2000 to 8 Gb SanDisk CompactFlash, compare in cost? More compressed, but cheaper?
http://www.thomsongrassvalley.com/docs/DataSheets/infinity/rev_pro/GV-2048.pdf
http://www.thomsongrassvalley.com/docs/DataSheets/infinity/rev_pro/GV-2048.pdf
Anders Holck
Well-known member
The 8 GB Sandisk UltraII has a sustained write of 8 MB/s in most tests. It peaks around 20MB/S.
I believe the good JPEG2000 HD resolution on the infinity is around 14MB/S.
(They state that you can fit 45 minutes of HD on a 35GB REV disk)
It must be the MPEG2 HD res or a lower JPEG2000 compression that will fit the CF card
I believe the good JPEG2000 HD resolution on the infinity is around 14MB/S.
(They state that you can fit 45 minutes of HD on a 35GB REV disk)
It must be the MPEG2 HD res or a lower JPEG2000 compression that will fit the CF card
AppliedVisual
Active member
The Engineer said:
I've run the numbers on it, makes sense to me. Other manufacturers will jump into the P2 game once the HVX reaches enough people (probably 15~20K units worldwide. There are several mainstream memory card vendors that are already signed on as P2 partners.
I'd bet it is. There are plenty of multichannel embedded memory controllers on the market that can be adapted to this sort of application. Even if it's a custom chip, we're still talking a $5 component in low yields. No big deal... I'd bet that the PC card housing costs more than the internal PCB and memory controller.
Well, they don't sell it, but it's available through NDA. Panny is making this pretty easy. And yes, I've looked into it. I have had various electronics components manufactured before, P2 wouldn't be a challenge at all. A relatively small investment of $250K could probably get me up and selling my own brand of 8GB and 16GB P2 cards by the end of this year. In some ways it's tempting, but I also don't want to mortgage the house to expand my business only to find that every other OEM card maker will be offering the same product by the time I'm taking orders.
It amazes me how so many people take P2, and the related construction/manufacturing of these devices, and act like it's some monumental task that's doomed to failure. P2 is simple... It's commodity components, in a commodity form factor, built by the lowest bidding contractor.
AppliedVisual said:
Do you think Panny has some sort of proprietary scheme (like Apple) so that they will have a monopoly on P2, and other companies (eg SanDisk etc) products won't work? It's seems to me that there is more margin selling P2 cards, than cameras. In a simplified analogy, it could be like Gillete making more money on the razor blades, than the razor handle.