p2 price drops exponential or linear ?

[cici]

@xray: you're right: CF is not P2...

just the facts let me reflect what I was saying:
- P2 has 4 SD-cards inside..... so you pay a) P2 technology research amortisation and b) price for 4 SD cards ACTUAL MARKET LEVEL (and this should be alike the market of SD, CF, Memory Stick etc.)
- prices fall relatively fast, compared e.g. to electronic hardware
- Panasonic announces to double the capacity of P2 about once a year at least, so I don't think that the next card will be more expensive that the card before - even if capacity is doubled within that period - it's just typical for memory cards or PC's that the capacity grows with staying price level - so the "second best" card has only half as much capacity and just CAN'T cost much more than 50% of the new card (sometimes even less than 50%, if the new card just comes out).

Of course this is all speculation. But it works for years for PC prices and memory card prices - so why not for P2? And once Panasonic has amortised the amount for the research and development they had to invest for P2, it is not impossible that a little extra price drop could happen... just to install P2 better in a fluent market. One day the price for a P2 card will be 99% for the development of P2 and 1% for the SDs inside - today it's about 60% development and 40% for the SDs. So we can hope, that not only the price will become about half every 12 months for a specific P2 card, but in one or two years even less....

speculation.... speculation...

 

[xray]

@cici "Of course this is all speculation. But it works for years for PC prices and memory card prices - so why not for P2?"

I think I just told you, P2 is Panasonic only. You can´t compare that with general memory prices or the prices of PC. Even if Panasonic is doubling their capacity each year, your economical camera life is about 4 years. You are already talking about 128 G cards that ´maybe´ someday will exist. I just count economical costs today.

I think if you want a cheaper price, you have to increase the sale numbers. If Panasonic can or will license their P2 technology to other vendors, or if more vendors are building videocams with memory raid systems (or other speedy memory cards) you will find more market fights. More choice generally means more quality and lower prices.

I admire your positive P2 mind set. It has advantages, but not today.

 

[Padmapriya]

This was my plan for the HVX200. Just have the 2G p2 and down load it to my Apple Laptop.
If one can shoot 5 pages of script per day ie: 5 minutes, why does one require 8G memory?

If one is a news reporter or work for a TV station or a Movie Studio, then one budgets for them as a professional user.

Am I missing something?

 

[Indy]

Pure economics

Pure economics

I would have thought the cost of P2 cards is more linked to memory prices globally, rather than P2 users specifically.

From a pure economics perspective the price charged for P2 will depend on how much Panasonic feel they can 'get away with' with rather than memory prices as whole.

Indy

 

[Indy]

Greed

Greed

@xray: you're right: CF is not P2...

And once Panasonic has amortised the amount for the research and development they had to invest for P2, it is not impossible that a little extra price drop could happen...speculation.... speculation...

Quite possibly but you've failed to factor in the most important variable .......

GREED!

Indy....

 

[Frizzle Fry]

Early adopters always pay top dollar for new tech. Think CD-R, DVD and the associated burners. P2 has no direct competition, so panasonic will set the price wherever they want it.

My guess is that by the time the 128 gb p2 cards are out (couple years from now?), the lower capacity ones will finally be affordable. but maybe the whole development cycle will be sped up by the new hi def gaming consoles coming out, and the subsequent spike in hdtv sales? after all, market penetration of hdtv is what will drive the need for the hvx and make hd content an even hotter commodity.

If I was din the market for an HVX, it would be for the 4:2:2 and the DVCPRO50. Even without HD, it would still be an excellent choice. I would have no qualms about joining the bleeding-edgers and buying early--the HVX is future-proof! It's got high quality SD and DVCPRO-50 (both of which will be around for years), and when you're ready, DVCPRO-HD.

This camera is going to be hot for a very, very long time. Kudos to Panasonic, they've done it again!

 

[cici]

Quite possibly but you've failed to factor in the most important variable .......

GREED!

Indy....

I don't think this factor is fair towards an enterprise that's used to donate a lot of money for hurricane victims this year and dozens of times before... And if anybody starts calling this "marketing strategy" then I just can assure you: if I had an enterprise with a good gain, I would donate too a part of the gain and no book-keeper could convince me to do this in anyway to get another gain by doing it. It's a DONation and not a COMPENSation. There is greed on this world, but I just can't associate this term with Panasonic, as they offer us a great camera for half the price they actually COULD (see: XL H1 !!!) and they leave several doors open to record without P2, so "greed" rather would have been, producing a P2 camera, that can ONLY record on P2.

 

[xray]

If I was in the market for an HVX, it would be for the 4:2:2 and the DVCPRO50. Even without HD, it would still be an excellent choice. I would have no qualms about joining the bleeding-edgers and buying early--the HVX is future-proof! It's got high quality SD and DVCPRO-50 (both of which will be around for years), and when you're ready, DVCPRO-HD.

Here I can find you, even without HD broadcasting today, shooting 16:9 is common. If the lens performs okay...its SD DVCPRO50 capacities can be a reason to buy. Going to pay for P2 is no issue then. huh: ehh) But, you think they can give you a HD lens + camcorder for < 6000 $? We will see.

 

[Rush]

Rush,
How much will you be renting the 8GB P2 cards for? How much for the weekend?

Hi curry, just about everything in a rental house rents at 5% of it value per day. So a $2300 GL2 rents for $120, and a $2000 P2 card rents for $100 per day/weekend. HVX Club price will be 50% of that, that's $50 per day. I will also offer free shipping for a week rental (which is 3-days, or $150). You have to be an HVX Club member though, i/e have bought the HVX from EVS within 6 months :thumbsup: After 6 months the discount will go back to 15% off. These will be a volatile media, so we will not keep them around very long, because the value will drop immensely within a year, unlike a deck or camera. I will start to post "Used 8GB P2" cards on DVXuser Site only, about 6 months after we start renting them. So that will be another way to own the media :laugh:

 

[rgdfilms]

Rush that is awesome that you guys will sell used cards. Any guesses at what price you will sell used 8 GB when upgrades are due out ? I guess it all depends. If you are enrolled in the HVX club, how long does the 50% discount last for us ? Is it six months or is it you have six months following the HVX's release to buy an HVX from EVS and therefore qualify?

thanks

 

[contentlab]

i find it interesting that few to none have pointed out that P2 cards are so expensive because it includes 4 cards with ZERO errors in a custom enclosure. such cards are rare and testing batches of cards to find these fault free memory cards takes time which equals money.

the number of fault free cards is not something that will increase as more people buy P2, or more companies partner with Panasonic on P2, or as other cameras are introduced using tapeless recording.

this is something that will increase as memory card manufacturers improve their manufacturing process and learn how to create more cards with less errors. if you want to help advance this then stop wondering about P2 specifically and get a job at Samsung working chip QC or go to school and get your masters or doctorate in Computer Engineering and figure out how to make "silicon" perfect all the time. if you manage to do so you'll be richer than gates and all the saudi's combined.

 

[asparagui]

when you buy a flash memory chip, it comes with a little more space. as the bits go bad the on-board controller maps them out and uses the previously unused space. panny may or may not be using the higher-quality chips, but there's no such thing as 'perfect' flash memory. if anything, the flash memory processes are lower-quality than the methods used for cpus, because this capacity gives them a built-in tolerance for failure.

 

[Rush]

Rush that is awesome that you guys will sell used cards. Any guesses at what price you will sell used 8 GB when upgrades are due out ? I guess it all depends. If you are enrolled in the HVX club, how long does the 50% discount last for us ? Is it six months or is it you have six months following the HVX's release to buy an HVX from EVS and therefore qualify?

thanks

Hi rgd, you're right, it will depend at the time, I can't wager yet that far ahead, you just never know. The 50% off the rental will happen for 6 mo. after you buy your camera. We just look up your invoice. :thumbsup: