p2 price drops exponential or linear ?

M

microsupercosym

Member
I am no econ-major so I don't really know how everything works but, when the HVX is released and assuming a lot of people eat up 4 GB and 8 GB cards, would we possibly see a drop in price/ increase in capacity dependent on how fast the market is flooded with p2 buyers ? Right now it has taken a year to double capacity, would we possibly see this number influx greatly as more people buy HVX's w/ p2 ? I'm hoping by this upcoming summertime we will see 16 GB cards for 2K and 4GB cards for $500.


or.... do you think storage, etc. will drop slowly ?

I only ask because I plan on buying an HVX sans p2 because I can't afford that. But then I got to thinking, I'm going to have an HVX for a year without p2 and by that time I may already see an HVX200a on the market as Im buying my first p2 card and I bet at that time the HVX will have the new capabilities to wash George Lucas's dirty teeth or something.

thoughts ? emoticons ? :thumbsup:
 
I would have thought the cost of P2 cards is more linked to memory prices globally, rather than P2 users specifically. Hence an increased use of P2 is not likely to affect the amount of total memory sold by very much, and therefore prices.

In other words, the best guess for memory in general seems to be that costs per GB will continue falling at the rate they have for the last few years - halving year on year seems a good ball park figure.
 
Depends on whether demand is exponential or linear :D

Sorry, that wasn't much help, heh! I suspect only those who work at Panasonic have a rough idea of how this may work out based on their current sales and other products.
 
I wonder if todays article about chipmakers and price fixing will have any bearing on P2 prices.



Samsung to Pay $300 Million Fine for Price Fixing

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 1:31 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Samsung, the world's largest maker of memory chips for computers and other electronic gadgets, has agreed to plead guilty to price fixing and pay a $300 million fine, U.S. officials said Thursday.

The penalty is the second-largest criminal antitrust fine ever and caps a three-year investigation into the largest makers of dynamic random access memory computer chips, a $7.7 billion market in the United States.

The guilty plea to the single felony charge by South Korea-based Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and its U.S. subsidiary, Samsung Semiconductor Inc., was to be entered Thursday in U.S. District Court in San Francisco.

The government's acting antitrust chief, Thomas O. Barnett, said seven Samsung employees were not protected by the guilty plea, an indication they may individually face criminal antitrust charges.

''That's a decision for us to make moving forward,'' Barnett said. He added that prosecuting individuals -- not just companies -- in price-fixing cases is an important deterrent against similar abuses.

The Justice Department already has secured similar guilty pleas from two other companies and collected more than $345 million in fines.

''Price-fixing threatens our free market system, stifles innovation and robs American consumers of the benefit of competitive prices,'' Attorney General Alberto Gonzales said.

Samsung said in a statement the company ''strongly supports fair competition and ethical practices and forbids anti-competitive behavior.'' A spokeswoman, Chris Goodhart, declined to identify the seven employees or say whether they still worked for Samsung.

Samsung received grand jury subpoenas in connection with the investigation during 2002, and put aside $100 million late last year to pay potential criminal penalties.

Samsung's top competitor, Seoul-based Hynix, agreed earlier this year to plead guilty to price fixing and pay a $185 million fine. Last September, rival Infineon Technologies AG of Germany agreed to a $160 million fine. Another competitor, Micron Technology Inc. of Boise, Idaho, has been cooperating with prosecutors and was not expected to face charges.

The government accused the companies of conspiring in e-mails, telephone calls and face-to-face meetings to fix prices of memory chips between April 1999 and June 2002. The chips are used in digital recorders, personal computers, printers, video recorders, mobile phones and many other electronics.

The government said the victims of the alleged price-fixing were Dell Inc., Compaq Computer Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co., Apple Computer Inc., International Business Machines Corp. and Gateway Inc.

Barrett said Apple and Dell raised computer prices to compensate, and other companies responded by reducing the amount of memory installed in computers they sold but kept consumer prices the same.

The investigation started in 2002, a year after memory chip prices began to climb even though the high-tech industry was in a tailspin. At the time, the hikes were attributed to tight supplies, although then- Dell Computer CEO Michael Dell blamed them on cartel-like behavior by chip makers.
Click to expand...
 
last year I bought a 1GB compact-flash card for 90 USD - Today - exacltly 1 year later the price is at 70 USD

Both prices looked in internet search-engine for cheapest card.

Last year 1GB was the tallest card around here - today it's 4 GB...

And for the same price as I got my 1GB card last year (90 USD) I can get just about 1,5GB today! - So even no 2GB card...

SO the card grew up from 1GB to 4GB within 12 months - and the price for 1GB card.... is almost still the same!! (and for about 8 months it even WAS the same price.... - market seems to be very shaky)
 
Maybe the Panasonic Santa Claus will include a 4 GB card bundled with the standalone HVX . Come on Jan, whadda ya say ? Damn. I really want this camera and to shoot in HD. I guess I'll just have to rent p2 cards from Rushy McRush Rush for the time being. Or maybe the New Jersey Queen will give us that 2 4GB card package for 7K ! I can swing that. I'll have to sell more crack though... just kidding..
 
1 optimistic fact: as soon as a good 32GB P2-card is affordable - there won't be any minutes-issue anymore - and from THAT point on, it's sneaking very slowly but continuously with it's advantages:

once "affordable" (this degree is interpreted differently by each customer...), the price won't stop falling and I don't see any limit, until 128GB (no more announced - don't know why) and this means 256GB total for HVX200 (and much more for cameras with more slots as e.g. the Varicam today and possibly cameras in future). And with this, FOUR HOURS of filming with HVX200 in best quality without changing card is possible while Sony with it's very limited "Professional Disc" won't ever pass it's data-rate and will never reach 100Mbps with blue laser the next couple of years and will not pass the 25GB probably when the HVX already is shooting with "cheap" 32GB or even 128GB cards...

This means, that I'm grateful to have with P2 a system much less limited than a system based on cassettes or blue-laser discs. P2 is (much) more expensive now - but the price for no limits is high - and even though falling each year. Maybe neither LINEARLY nor EXPONENTIALLY but CONSTANTLY and MONODIRECTIONALLY!
 
i think someone from panasonic said the prices will probably not decrease much, what WILL happen is you'll just get more storage for the same amount of money.
 
@brianluce:

simple mathematics: MORE STORAGE FOR SAME AMOUNT OF MONEY..... "more" means always "twice" for P2.... so price will become half...

e.g. 1000 USD for 8GB today and 1000USD for 16GB tomorrow means 500USD for 8GB tomorrow means half price of today....

is this what you call "not decrease much" ? - half price is a good deal IMO
 
yeah? well in my world for the mathmatically impaired, I'm still out a thousand bucks. whether it's 8 gigs or 800 gigs, i still have to fork over a thousand dollars. a thousand dollars is a lot of money--i could buy a lot of beer with that.
 
CiCi, you inspired me and have completely calmed my fears. You're right, the sky is the limit with p2, for the meantime people should shoot miniDV on it and rent out p2 cards from EVS at 50% off for weekend shoots, isn't that expensive when compared to paying $2000 for an 8 GB card today only to see it double and triple in capacity over time - I would say, if you absolutly need to shoot HD the moment you get this camera and are actually making top $$$ by doing so then do it, otherwise the casual owner or weekend filmmaker will benefit greatly from renting until prices become ok

makes sense now
 
I second that micro, and that was the whole purpose of the HVX club, to allow everyone the opprtunity to wait for bigger cheaper P2 cards. :thumbsup: Finally, 4:2:2 with no $25,000 deck!
 
By the time massive cards are available we'll be dealing with some flavor of 4:4:4 so minutes will still be limited. ;)
 
I don´t see a relation between memory(card) prices and the costs of P2 cards today.
P2 is Intellectual Property ownership and Panasonic exclusive, they can ask any price they want. There is no competition and no great demand for upscaling the production.

Its like the XD, SD/MMC, Memory Stick, Memory Stick PRO, Smartmedia storage cards for digital cameras. As soon there is more competition and more choice, the market will attract costumers with price and quality and possibillitys like good software and compression. ( see DVCPROHD)

If more brands will create camcorders based on a memorycard raid system like P2, prices will drop.
 
I still say that the (HVX200) two 8GHz chips package should come with an upgrade coupon for direct exchange of the 8’s for 16’s when they become available. Seems like (for a lot of people that really intend to buy P2) it would settle the issue and be really cool marketing for Panasonic getting those P2’s out there early in the game.
 
The card will be available for rental shortly after the release of the camera from a variety of sources, including authorized Panasonic rental partners and will be backed up by an archiving and vaulting scheme that will be consistent with a file-based post production workflow
 
You should rely on the local vendors to make upgrade deals available since they are sensitive to market demand and have more dexterity than Panasonic in offering these sort of promotions.
 
One pro camera has already been announced using Compact Flash media as an option. If this becomes a trend, the roughly equivalent capacities and much lower cost per GB may force drastic P2 pricedrops to compete
 
This is true, although the precise configuration of the card may preclude 3rd party vendors from offering compatible lower-cost alternatives, which is the only real impetus for Panasonic to lower the price and tout their card as the only authorized storage medium.

It's a good point and one worth taking up with Panasonic, i.e. how is your card different from other SD memory cards with the same form factor?
 
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