This is a repost that Erich agreed that I could post here. I found it very insightfull and ultimately helps explain why I bought an HMC 150 and not a larger camera.
Buck
New cameras, and where are we headed?
by Erich Roland on Jul 1, 2009 at 6:14:20 am
I posted this over in the Panasonic HPX area a few days ago because it was mostly about Panasonic's P2 format. I thought it belongs over here also because it ask's the question of where both these companies should be looking going forward. I'm not interested in bashing per-se, but to stimulate idea's and conversation about where we are in the "digital time line", how we landed here and where we are (or should be) headed.
When this P2 flash technology came out it was solving a data rate problem for mini cameras. Sony had HDV format converting an existing tape size (mini-dv), and compressing the 1080i HD signal into its limiting 25mp data stream rate. Most were amazed by the image from this pint-sized camera but were unhappy with the compression onto the dv tapes even though the 1/3” 1080 line camera section looked very good. Sony was the “first to market” with the Z1U mini Hd camcorder and enjoyed that market position.
Panasonic was a bit behind the 1/3” HD camera release and took the higher road with a bit rate needed to record to there own DVC-pro codec to flash media. Flash had been out for a while in consumer cameras but not yet in pro (or semi-pro) equipment. At that time the largest (and limiting factor) was that the largest capacity flash cards were 1(one) gb. This wasn’t enough space to record very long segment, (about 1 minute), so you might surmise that this was one of the big motivations behind the idea to package four 1gb SD memory cards into one 4gb “P2” assembly. This way they could also control the quality of the media P2 was born and the HVX-200 arrived.
Oddly (what might have been an omen) the very same point in time the new Macbook Pro’s arrived on scene and had taken the same card slot out of the new laptops that would have made P2 transfer’s much easier. On day one P2 was outdated (interesting). You mean Panasonic and Apple who seemed to be in communication with final cut etc, somehow were way out of sync with this memory format?
Very quickly the HVX was the mini HD camera to own because it was a better recording (dvc-pro) and also matched our Varicam’s format and “look” much better. We all were learning this new “flash media” dance of transferring to hard drives etc, in the fast growing mini-cam market segment.
Many thousands of these HVX cameras were sold, and it wasn’t long after that we started hearing the rumors of a P2 varicam. I’m guessing Panasonic was feeling pretty good about the sales of these 200’s and wanted to parley this fervor into more models, as I’m sure the Varicam sales had slowed (or stopped) because of the HDX-900 release was what many owner/operators where looking for... a buying entry point.
Soon there after the hvx came out with only 4gb cards, the 8gb P2 cards arrived, and then 16’s. The advances in the technology and subsequent drop in price for consumer memory was coming very fast, this is only about 2 years ago, and already 32 gb cards are common, and 64’s are here. From one gb to 64gb in about 2 years, that’s double in capacity 6 times over. Consumer memory needs has been the driver and card capacity and data speeds have improved considerably. The memory prices have fallen to where it’s become a non-issue in the consumer world, yet it’s still a very big issue for Panasonics P2 memory (price gouging anybody?).
Both the P2 and SxS cards are small in capacity and speed relative to where, we need to go in the future. This is where huge advances have taken place in the last 2 years, and Id guess we are in for more big advances going forward, maybe even quantum leaps with Holographic, etc.
The demand for bigger sensors, higher frame rates, bit rates, and transfer speeds is out there but limited by these (already old) consumer “memory stick” platforms. Somehow Red has worked its way around some of these limitations with much bigger sensors, and higher frame rates, and... they were also smart to NOT build the memory receptor into the actual camera body. At Red they understand that this technology could change overnight and they are ready for anything new to come along. (this part is important to save the camera from premature obsolescence, Red's credo)
Panasonic and Sony are currently missing this important concept and have produced systems stuck with the memory technology of today (or actually yesterday) built into the camera/recorders at a time of fast change. Sony and Panasonic both now sell outboard recorders, but are missing the obvious next step which is to design this idea into the system rather then an after thought.
When Red’s Scarlet comes out, and Canon or Nikon begins to solve some of the issues that these new High def DSLR’s have, the Pro world which used to be limited to Panasonic and Sony brands will loose more market to these new innovative digital solutions, market share they can ill afford in this bad economic environment. The big boys must innovate soon, or they may be in much more trouble gong forward. The Convergence Design and AJA both with very interesting offerings that bypass limitations in cam-recorder designs and give us options like the ability to record directly to Final Cut’s “Pro Res” format, bypassing what looks like were un-necessary (proprietary) format conversions in-between.
P2 memory (and SxS) cards “built in” to the camera is an advancement limiter, and Panasonic needs to break out of this already old technology (designed when 1gb was the top end) and jump to a storage platform that has UPSIDE develop-ability with much higher data rates and storage capacity. Sony (with the XD disk) is in a similar bad position where XD is maxed out on speed at 35-50mbs. But Sony is maybe in the better position NOT having lept into 2/3” stick memory camera’s, Sony has been more restrained, and therefore, possibly getting ready for a more innovative move going forward. Sony must break out of the constraints of burning disc's in the field. This "transition technology" can not last, solid state will win in the end, its only a matter of when?
I’m guessing that the flash memory companies are working on the next generation of platforms that have more upside "develop ability". That breaks out of the natural restrictions for speed and capacity of CF, or SD stick limitations. These were designed and built when 8mb was the card that camera with your new digital camera a decade ago. Do you think this medium would look different if designed today? If so what’s stopping the next design?
The next generation might have capacities starting at 50gb, and up to 500 gb or higher, and data speeds measured in GB per sec not MB! What if they cost about what we are used to for spending on tape (or less) per minute of run time, and so we could easily justify leaving the material on these solid state memory sticks as our archival medium (like we are used to with tape)? At this point we will transcended the transfer/achieve issue of expensive flash memory (which is very real problem) and may arrive soon at the place where even the “old school” tape producers will be ready to bail at the next chance to upgrade their camera system and workflow.
I’ve been surprised to see Panasonic put so much stock into this P2 and as fast as they did, dropping tape support (to a degree) at the same time... "but just last year you sold us a bunch of tape products that will last for many years to come!" (what’s with that?). The market coercion that has grown at the same time as P2 is plain to see. If anybody has needed a head replacement in a Dvc-pro deck will notice that the price has doubled in the same time all the new P2 products arrived (Hmmmm) that’s one way to try and manipulate the industry out of tape usage! The marketers seem to be in control at Panasonic and they will pay the price for not being smarter (technically), then the next company rather then attempt to manipulate more sales.
The digital world marches on. Even your basic hard drive that has been with us since the beginning of the digital revolution will soon be on the digital trash heap (along with floppies) as solid state takes center stage and advancements accelerate. In a few years the hard drive will look very “old school“ (and rightfully so). As an associate said to me yesterday "whats the failure rate of hard drives?.... 100 percent! Yes, they will all fail eventually.
These professional 2/3” cameras are built to last for many years. I had my first betacam for about 10 years. I still have my first varicam bought in 2004. My Varicam still works great, looks great and I expect if anybody still wants to use it will still work fine 5 years from now. Even the internal hours counter goes almost forever, but maybe Panasonic has other plans for the demise and shorter life span (trade-in 3700, etc). Does anybody think the P2 Varicam will be viable 10 years from now? Will this odd P2 memory assembly born when one GB was the largest memory size available still live 10 years from now in this fast moving digital world? Or are we in transition phase?
The digital world is advancing very fast. Particularly in data speed, storage capacity and to be stuck with the same memory profile (P2) will likely hold back the advancements sure to be coming soon.
The camera section of these camcorders work very well, and you can see the advances in this “capture” part of the system are slowing relative to the recording. It’s the record/storage side of the equation that’s changing very fast and feels “transitionary”. Who wants to spend 30-40k on a camcorder only to have to trade in for pennies on the dollar to get the next new thing when it’s just the back half that has advanced, and the camera section is more or less the same? These P2 Varicams are an example, where our cameras work fine, and we are being asked to move up to p2, when the capture side is very similar in specs. It’s basically a workflow change, but we have to toss the front end along with the tape recorder because of the one-piece design (hmmm, whats wrong with this equation?).
Red is on the cutting edge with its modular concept. Trade in the camera head for the newer version, and keep the accessories and data storage solutions. It makes us smarter consumers and more willing to spend on the next advancement when we aren’t wasting a bunch of technology that works fine (the camera section), and make an improvement in another part of the system. Its different with a mini cam when the whole set-up just costs 5-8k and getting your investment out is faster and smaller/lighter is the main driver (we understand that mini's are likely only good for a few years). But when were being asked to spend 30-40-60 for a 2/3” camcorder to possibly be out dated in 2 years when they are built to last 10 –15 years... who wants to do that? Add a bad economic environment, and it should be no surprise the P2 Varicam’s are not selling. It’s a HUGE risk to take when we are in transition. We’ve all seen how fast the move from tape has come for this company and we inherently feel uncomfortable spending massive cash because we understand that it can change fast again and we will be left with an out dated camcorder that nobody wants anymore (anybody seen Varicam resale prices?)! We see how this company is cutting out its tape products like a CANCER, and it could happen again with P2 when the next thing comes along.
The professional industry doesn’t trust Panasonic anymore from the last few years of P2 card pricing....marketing ploys, too many models, OVERPRICED products, etc. It feels like they have made bad choices and they are trying to make us pay for these questionable moves.
If Panasonic produced a modular system it would change everything towards moving forward rather then the sales department ruling the roost in questionable products. The customer will feel more in control and comfortable with they’re HUGE investment possibly being worth something 3-5-7 years out because they could replace the section that has made the latest advancement (if they want) and not HAVE to replace the entire cam-recorder because a part of the system that has advanced.
It’s so obvious a problem and solution it seems too simple. I realize Panasonic would love to sell us a new 50k camcorder every 2 years, but nobody can afford it, and it won’t happen. I believe they thought they could force us all to get rid of perfectly good, working tape cameras and buy these P2 products, but they have miscalculated the customer and the industry. Whoever is in control at Pany is missing this important point. They just successfully sold us HDX-900’s and decks by the thousands (from the year previous) what do they expect us to do, dump this new expensive gear already when its built to last for another 10 years minimum?
The Panasonic’s current product line (in 2/3”) reminds me of the poker shows on TV where the guy in the hoody and mirror glasses pushes all his chips towards the middle and proclaims “all in” (on a weak hand). That’s what Panasonic has done with they’re bet on P2. I think they made a huge bet, its not working out (in 2/3") and they need to cut they’re losses (i.e., the 3700 deal). I expect more deals to come with other models, few are buying the 2700 either!
part two follows
Buck
New cameras, and where are we headed?
by Erich Roland on Jul 1, 2009 at 6:14:20 am
I posted this over in the Panasonic HPX area a few days ago because it was mostly about Panasonic's P2 format. I thought it belongs over here also because it ask's the question of where both these companies should be looking going forward. I'm not interested in bashing per-se, but to stimulate idea's and conversation about where we are in the "digital time line", how we landed here and where we are (or should be) headed.
When this P2 flash technology came out it was solving a data rate problem for mini cameras. Sony had HDV format converting an existing tape size (mini-dv), and compressing the 1080i HD signal into its limiting 25mp data stream rate. Most were amazed by the image from this pint-sized camera but were unhappy with the compression onto the dv tapes even though the 1/3” 1080 line camera section looked very good. Sony was the “first to market” with the Z1U mini Hd camcorder and enjoyed that market position.
Panasonic was a bit behind the 1/3” HD camera release and took the higher road with a bit rate needed to record to there own DVC-pro codec to flash media. Flash had been out for a while in consumer cameras but not yet in pro (or semi-pro) equipment. At that time the largest (and limiting factor) was that the largest capacity flash cards were 1(one) gb. This wasn’t enough space to record very long segment, (about 1 minute), so you might surmise that this was one of the big motivations behind the idea to package four 1gb SD memory cards into one 4gb “P2” assembly. This way they could also control the quality of the media P2 was born and the HVX-200 arrived.
Oddly (what might have been an omen) the very same point in time the new Macbook Pro’s arrived on scene and had taken the same card slot out of the new laptops that would have made P2 transfer’s much easier. On day one P2 was outdated (interesting). You mean Panasonic and Apple who seemed to be in communication with final cut etc, somehow were way out of sync with this memory format?
Very quickly the HVX was the mini HD camera to own because it was a better recording (dvc-pro) and also matched our Varicam’s format and “look” much better. We all were learning this new “flash media” dance of transferring to hard drives etc, in the fast growing mini-cam market segment.
Many thousands of these HVX cameras were sold, and it wasn’t long after that we started hearing the rumors of a P2 varicam. I’m guessing Panasonic was feeling pretty good about the sales of these 200’s and wanted to parley this fervor into more models, as I’m sure the Varicam sales had slowed (or stopped) because of the HDX-900 release was what many owner/operators where looking for... a buying entry point.
Soon there after the hvx came out with only 4gb cards, the 8gb P2 cards arrived, and then 16’s. The advances in the technology and subsequent drop in price for consumer memory was coming very fast, this is only about 2 years ago, and already 32 gb cards are common, and 64’s are here. From one gb to 64gb in about 2 years, that’s double in capacity 6 times over. Consumer memory needs has been the driver and card capacity and data speeds have improved considerably. The memory prices have fallen to where it’s become a non-issue in the consumer world, yet it’s still a very big issue for Panasonics P2 memory (price gouging anybody?).
Both the P2 and SxS cards are small in capacity and speed relative to where, we need to go in the future. This is where huge advances have taken place in the last 2 years, and Id guess we are in for more big advances going forward, maybe even quantum leaps with Holographic, etc.
The demand for bigger sensors, higher frame rates, bit rates, and transfer speeds is out there but limited by these (already old) consumer “memory stick” platforms. Somehow Red has worked its way around some of these limitations with much bigger sensors, and higher frame rates, and... they were also smart to NOT build the memory receptor into the actual camera body. At Red they understand that this technology could change overnight and they are ready for anything new to come along. (this part is important to save the camera from premature obsolescence, Red's credo)
Panasonic and Sony are currently missing this important concept and have produced systems stuck with the memory technology of today (or actually yesterday) built into the camera/recorders at a time of fast change. Sony and Panasonic both now sell outboard recorders, but are missing the obvious next step which is to design this idea into the system rather then an after thought.
When Red’s Scarlet comes out, and Canon or Nikon begins to solve some of the issues that these new High def DSLR’s have, the Pro world which used to be limited to Panasonic and Sony brands will loose more market to these new innovative digital solutions, market share they can ill afford in this bad economic environment. The big boys must innovate soon, or they may be in much more trouble gong forward. The Convergence Design and AJA both with very interesting offerings that bypass limitations in cam-recorder designs and give us options like the ability to record directly to Final Cut’s “Pro Res” format, bypassing what looks like were un-necessary (proprietary) format conversions in-between.
P2 memory (and SxS) cards “built in” to the camera is an advancement limiter, and Panasonic needs to break out of this already old technology (designed when 1gb was the top end) and jump to a storage platform that has UPSIDE develop-ability with much higher data rates and storage capacity. Sony (with the XD disk) is in a similar bad position where XD is maxed out on speed at 35-50mbs. But Sony is maybe in the better position NOT having lept into 2/3” stick memory camera’s, Sony has been more restrained, and therefore, possibly getting ready for a more innovative move going forward. Sony must break out of the constraints of burning disc's in the field. This "transition technology" can not last, solid state will win in the end, its only a matter of when?
I’m guessing that the flash memory companies are working on the next generation of platforms that have more upside "develop ability". That breaks out of the natural restrictions for speed and capacity of CF, or SD stick limitations. These were designed and built when 8mb was the card that camera with your new digital camera a decade ago. Do you think this medium would look different if designed today? If so what’s stopping the next design?
The next generation might have capacities starting at 50gb, and up to 500 gb or higher, and data speeds measured in GB per sec not MB! What if they cost about what we are used to for spending on tape (or less) per minute of run time, and so we could easily justify leaving the material on these solid state memory sticks as our archival medium (like we are used to with tape)? At this point we will transcended the transfer/achieve issue of expensive flash memory (which is very real problem) and may arrive soon at the place where even the “old school” tape producers will be ready to bail at the next chance to upgrade their camera system and workflow.
I’ve been surprised to see Panasonic put so much stock into this P2 and as fast as they did, dropping tape support (to a degree) at the same time... "but just last year you sold us a bunch of tape products that will last for many years to come!" (what’s with that?). The market coercion that has grown at the same time as P2 is plain to see. If anybody has needed a head replacement in a Dvc-pro deck will notice that the price has doubled in the same time all the new P2 products arrived (Hmmmm) that’s one way to try and manipulate the industry out of tape usage! The marketers seem to be in control at Panasonic and they will pay the price for not being smarter (technically), then the next company rather then attempt to manipulate more sales.
The digital world marches on. Even your basic hard drive that has been with us since the beginning of the digital revolution will soon be on the digital trash heap (along with floppies) as solid state takes center stage and advancements accelerate. In a few years the hard drive will look very “old school“ (and rightfully so). As an associate said to me yesterday "whats the failure rate of hard drives?.... 100 percent! Yes, they will all fail eventually.
These professional 2/3” cameras are built to last for many years. I had my first betacam for about 10 years. I still have my first varicam bought in 2004. My Varicam still works great, looks great and I expect if anybody still wants to use it will still work fine 5 years from now. Even the internal hours counter goes almost forever, but maybe Panasonic has other plans for the demise and shorter life span (trade-in 3700, etc). Does anybody think the P2 Varicam will be viable 10 years from now? Will this odd P2 memory assembly born when one GB was the largest memory size available still live 10 years from now in this fast moving digital world? Or are we in transition phase?
The digital world is advancing very fast. Particularly in data speed, storage capacity and to be stuck with the same memory profile (P2) will likely hold back the advancements sure to be coming soon.
The camera section of these camcorders work very well, and you can see the advances in this “capture” part of the system are slowing relative to the recording. It’s the record/storage side of the equation that’s changing very fast and feels “transitionary”. Who wants to spend 30-40k on a camcorder only to have to trade in for pennies on the dollar to get the next new thing when it’s just the back half that has advanced, and the camera section is more or less the same? These P2 Varicams are an example, where our cameras work fine, and we are being asked to move up to p2, when the capture side is very similar in specs. It’s basically a workflow change, but we have to toss the front end along with the tape recorder because of the one-piece design (hmmm, whats wrong with this equation?).
Red is on the cutting edge with its modular concept. Trade in the camera head for the newer version, and keep the accessories and data storage solutions. It makes us smarter consumers and more willing to spend on the next advancement when we aren’t wasting a bunch of technology that works fine (the camera section), and make an improvement in another part of the system. Its different with a mini cam when the whole set-up just costs 5-8k and getting your investment out is faster and smaller/lighter is the main driver (we understand that mini's are likely only good for a few years). But when were being asked to spend 30-40-60 for a 2/3” camcorder to possibly be out dated in 2 years when they are built to last 10 –15 years... who wants to do that? Add a bad economic environment, and it should be no surprise the P2 Varicam’s are not selling. It’s a HUGE risk to take when we are in transition. We’ve all seen how fast the move from tape has come for this company and we inherently feel uncomfortable spending massive cash because we understand that it can change fast again and we will be left with an out dated camcorder that nobody wants anymore (anybody seen Varicam resale prices?)! We see how this company is cutting out its tape products like a CANCER, and it could happen again with P2 when the next thing comes along.
The professional industry doesn’t trust Panasonic anymore from the last few years of P2 card pricing....marketing ploys, too many models, OVERPRICED products, etc. It feels like they have made bad choices and they are trying to make us pay for these questionable moves.
If Panasonic produced a modular system it would change everything towards moving forward rather then the sales department ruling the roost in questionable products. The customer will feel more in control and comfortable with they’re HUGE investment possibly being worth something 3-5-7 years out because they could replace the section that has made the latest advancement (if they want) and not HAVE to replace the entire cam-recorder because a part of the system that has advanced.
It’s so obvious a problem and solution it seems too simple. I realize Panasonic would love to sell us a new 50k camcorder every 2 years, but nobody can afford it, and it won’t happen. I believe they thought they could force us all to get rid of perfectly good, working tape cameras and buy these P2 products, but they have miscalculated the customer and the industry. Whoever is in control at Pany is missing this important point. They just successfully sold us HDX-900’s and decks by the thousands (from the year previous) what do they expect us to do, dump this new expensive gear already when its built to last for another 10 years minimum?
The Panasonic’s current product line (in 2/3”) reminds me of the poker shows on TV where the guy in the hoody and mirror glasses pushes all his chips towards the middle and proclaims “all in” (on a weak hand). That’s what Panasonic has done with they’re bet on P2. I think they made a huge bet, its not working out (in 2/3") and they need to cut they’re losses (i.e., the 3700 deal). I expect more deals to come with other models, few are buying the 2700 either!
part two follows
