NAB 2019 rumors (and releases)

I think it's still a few months away from being released. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Aputure had had a 1.2K HMI equivalent LED on offer in the next year or two. It is amazing how quickly this technology is progressing.

Cree's newest chips are almost eleven times more efficient than tungsten (155 vs 14.3 lumen per watt) at 90 CRI.
 
Cree's newest chips are almost eleven times more efficient than tungsten (155 vs 14.3 lumen per watt) at 90 CRI.

I wonder wha the peak efficiency will end up being the LEDs in a few years. Currently the issue is that the heat limit of the silicon is so much lower than HMIs that the biggest problem is how to keep them from melting themselves. I wonder what the limit for unit size will be ultimately.
 
I wonder wha the peak efficiency will end up being the LEDs in a few years. Currently the issue is that the heat limit of the silicon is so much lower than HMIs that the biggest problem is how to keep them from melting themselves. I wonder what the limit for unit size will be ultimately.

The limit is 683 lumens per Watt: https://www.carbonlighthouse.com/lighting-insights-efficiency-efficacy-and-magic-number-683/
Lighting-Insights.png
 
The other big thing on the LED's is their price. I believe that, in late 2013, a 500 bead LED panel was around $500. Now its equivalent, with a much higher CRI to boot, is ~ $75-$80 (both off eBay).

Meanwhile the ISO performance of the modern sensors went from ~ 1,000 to 6,400 and, with noise reduction, as high as 12,800.

The battery prices have gone down as well. A decade ago lithium ion was around $1,000/KWH; now they're under $200 and going down to $100 by 2025, according to the projections.
 
The other big thing on the LED's is their price. I believe that, in late 2013, a 500 bead LED panel was around $500. Now its equivalent, with a much higher CRI to boot, is ~ $75-$80 (both off eBay).

Meanwhile the ISO performance of the modern sensors went from ~ 1,000 to 6,400 and, with noise reduction, as high as 12,800.

The battery prices have gone down as well. A decade ago lithium ion was around $1,000/KWH; now they're under $200 and going down to $100 by 2025, according to the projections.

I’m presuming the battery prices are just for raw cells and not a finished ready to buy/use by the consumer product. I remember when A/B introduced a 160WH Li-ion battery pack it was, even for a professional battery, an eye watering ~$1K. But now you can get batteries from respected manufacturers, pushing 300WH for ~$800. Of course, I’m talking about Gold Mount and V-Mount professional batteries for use on professional production equipment.
 
I’m presuming the battery prices are just for raw cells and not a finished ready to buy/use by the consumer product...
The GM president Mary Barra mentioned $150/KWH last year ... but others gave her a collected "WTF" for that. Off last year's data, the OEM cost was averaging around $208 but she was probably quoting pre-packaging.

But it looks like the high end video batteries have either much higher margins (a sure bet) or much different packaging insofar as heat removal/ventilation etc. It's bad enough to have a fire in one's trunk; it's much worse to have one near one's face.

PS. Side note, I was looking up some stuff on the batteries/auto industry a while ago and Musk said that Tesla was following fifty six different companies/technologies since every couple of months, there's a widely disseminated article on a "breakthrough innovation". Meanwhile, the reality is step-by-step.
 
Lots of room for innovation in power systems, including ultra capacitors: https://hackaday.com/2019/02/04/tesla-eyes-ultracapacitor-future-with-maxwell-acquisition/ . In addition to regen for vehicles, this tech could provide a means for extremely rapid recharging, where the ultra capacitor takes a quick charge, then slowly charges the chemical battery while the device is in use. Something along the lines of carbon nanotubes + graphene etc. could be the future of energy storage: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-talk-charging-ahead/ . For safety, discharge would be engineered to be slow/controlled.

More interesting, is compact energy sources using 'exotic' technologies. Like most people, I had written off cold fusion as 'fake news' after the media made it look like cold fusion wasn't real. Once I realized that things aren't always what they seem (as widely reported), I recently researched cold fusion and found this, What if Cold Fusion is Real: https://www.wired.com/1998/11/coldfusion/ (replicated by Los Alamos!)
Initially, he was a skeptic. "We ran some experiments," he says, "and didn't get any results. Then we got some results three months later, but we didn't believe the results. Then we replicated them, and I realized there was something here. I think we spent about $300,000, mostly on labor - not a lot by Los Alamos standards."

What happens to the petro-dollar-energy-battery markets when exotic (cold fusion, zero point etc.) local energy 'generation' becomes widely available? Sure, highly disruptive and it will not only affect corporate profits, but also a lot of jobs. The bigger question is then maybe we need to start looking at a different way to live on this planet where the entire idea of a 'job' is rethought, which will also reduce the concentration of wealth and power: really important today as the 'middle class' has been shrinking faster and faster.
 
I'm sure they'll be able to achieve this on larger units that can expel heat properly, but I really do hope we get LEDs that can replace Joleko 800s.

There's likely other ways to get produce photons more efficiently than LED/OLED etc. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroluminescence (LED & OLED are also EL)). When the light is visible, vs. IR etc., there will be no losses from heat. LEDs typically get hot from electrical factors vs. IR output. Thus when there's a way to get EL without the electrical (vs. photonic) thermal losses, heat won't be an issue (and the light source will be much more efficient).
 
An embarrassment of riches.

It is really fun being at the cutting edge a quarter century ago, haha!

In many ways, i miss the standards of yesteryear. But this shownwas great, feels like things are becoming format agnostic, and there are so many options. It feels good again. Things will still be changing, but the ecosystem is more ready for constant change now. Change is the new normal.
 
I'll probably snag a 300D II at some point to add to my collection of 120D IIs. Aputure is really killing it.
The 300Dii prototype is very nice. 1% dimming is stable and just a hint of light, and 100% is nice and punchy! Color seems as nice as the 120d’s. The 300d is slightly bigger, but only slightly, so for some shooters, i could see that carrying 2 120’s would be nicer than 2 300’s, but for the most part, the 300dii is probably the best one light to own when it comes out.
 
There's nothing impressive there. This is how linear RAW works, most of the digital bits are distributed to highlights, not very efficient and requires high bitdepth (14bit or 16bit) to preserve full tonal range. That's why ARRI and Canon went with log RAW.

F55's highlight latitude is around 6 stops above neutral grey, while Alexa does at least 7.5 stops.


The F55 images come out looking highend. But the F55 really comes into its own with the higher bitrates and custom luts. No other camera gets that many iq options with that kind of weight and battery life. Maybe C200 and C300mkii come close, but the F55 has a few advantages as an all in one high end camera. Anything that shoots better inages eats through batteries or suffers in some silly features.
 
Aputure is crushing it this year. I'm very tempted by the new 300d mkII. If it's TLCI color values are better than the original version then I'll definitely pick one up. If it's TLCI scores are the same as the original then I'll probably pick up an original on sale now that the new model is coming out.


I almost feel the tilt and tilt lock is worth the upgrade price. The 1% dimming is very impressive. And having one “ballast” is not a bad thing for shoots on the move. And any LED that is a bit brighter without penalties.... sounds good to me. But i feel you, the oroginal is still a great tool.
 
I like Aputure, have a kit of their Amarans (Ipad-size) and I'm thinking about getting the 120d and now 300d mk2, but the new Nanlite that was being introduced with Forza 300 and 500 seems crazy strong on paper... Right now light output is more important to me than extra features... I want/need something around 1200w HMI that doesn't cost an arm and a leg. The 300d mk2 is supposed to be around 575 HMI, which is really good, and maybe I will have to settle for using 2 of them instead...
 
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Finally, an announcement of a S35 4K Alexa. I'm glad that Large Format wont become the auto default of productions, I still like working in S35 and using all the classic glass. I wonder if they'll actually pull off the same DR. Even if they don't, it'll be insanely popular due to the color science, but I do hope that everything will move forward at once. It's surprising that they managed to get by this long without one, because all the LF releases were beginning to look a bit like a desperate sideshow because of how badly they're lagging behind. I don't care too much about finishing in 4K, but I really hate the idea of shooting in HD. Bit of a shame for Panasonic, though, really thought the V35 would make a bigger splash. Between Arri and Sony it doesn't feel like they have a clear place anymore, they should make a cheaper LT to compete with the next C300.
With the Sharp 8K prototype, we are starting to hear phrases like: “making conpromises”, “sacrificing resolution for dynamic range” etc. i think the push for resolution is coming to a head and further refinements in image quality will come back to the forefront.

The Alexa has long been a testament that latitude and highlight rolloff makes a more aestheticly pleasing look than extra pixels, but that is something that professionals know and they can get past marketing.

That said, i am looking forward to seeing what Arri does with more resolution. I think it can improve tonality. It is nice having more resolution.
 
Anything new from Convergent Design? Even a vague rumour of ProRes RAW support? Are they even there?


I saw a banner or booth signage with Convergent on there. I didn’t stop by, as i was looking for the Fton lens booth and never made my way back unfortunetaly. But Convergent was there.

Their website does show they are selling Prores Raw support, and currently running a sale.

https://www.convergent-design.com
 
I like Aputure, have a kit of their Amarans (Ipad-size) and I'm thinking about getting the 120d and now 300d mk2, but the new Nanlite that was being introduced with Forza 300 and 500 seems crazy strong on paper... Right now light output is more important to me than extra features... I want/need something around 1200w HMI that doesn't cost an arm and a leg. The 300d mk2 is supposed to be around 575 HMI, which is really good, and maybe I will have to settle for using 2 of them instead...

Namaste.
 
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