Is NAB 2018 cancelled?

True "puredrifting (Dan)"! The Kinefinity Terra 4K has that type of potential. Small form factor, modular, true cinema like images, etc. They are on the right track...............Yes, we know about quality control, time, professional industry adaption and other factors. But they are trying......ProAV in UK just became European Distributor......
 
puredrifting said:
You'll laugh but IMHO, our industry is slowly headed toward further consolidation with the lower end ceding to Smartphones and the middle end, the bread and butter eventually succumbing to Smartphone-like devices. There will be higher end cameras around for the foreseeable future because of workflows and phytsical size needed for a crew to man the camera for pulling focus, iris and zoom. But for documentary, wedding, event type work, I can see a lot of the industry moving toward higher end Smartphone-like devices like the RED Phone and others that will come. Why buy a $2,500.00 to $4k "camera" when Smartphones are going to eventually match and probably will surpass the quality at half or less money? DSP and computing power will eventually be able to mimic and then surpass things like DOF, FOV, sound issues with wireless mics, etc. Then the trend will start to move upward where many of us will buy a $2k Smartphone over an $8,000.00 camera. I know it sounds like science fiction, but it's coming and accelerating. I wish I had a crystal ball to see what most of us will be shooting on in 5 years. I have feeling it won't be cameras like the FS7 and C300 MKII. It'll be on something much smaller, lighter and cheaper with much better quality.
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While you make very valid points, I think one issue that your scenario does not address is optics. Yes, smartphone manufacturers have come a long way in that department along with the help of software correction, but the physics of a great lens will be hard to shrink. Even with the low end cameras there's nothing more exciting than seeing a beautiful image rendered by outstanding optics.

JMHO
 
Bassman2003 said:
Things are pretty quiet leading up to the show. Either the leakers are being kept under control or NAB is going to be a non-event for new cameras. These boards used to be very active in the week leading up to NAB shows. Kind of shows the industry is in decline.
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If you visit any of the news sites/blogs, they will be heavily updating their posts every day during this time (they usually do at least once most days all year long, but expect multiple posts daily during NAB season) and you'll see a lot of what's coming out.

They pretty much cover everything - cameras, lenses, audio, lighting, support gear, drones, sliders, random miscellaneous items, etc - with write-ups and/or interviews.
 
stoneinapond said:
While you make very valid points, I think one issue that your scenario does not address is optics. Yes, smartphone manufacturers have come a long way in that department along with the help of software correction, but the physics of a great lens will be hard to shrink. Even with the low end cameras there's nothing more exciting than seeing a beautiful image rendered by outstanding optics.

JMHO
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Just to touch on that, I am using the $100.00 Moment 18mm equivalent wide angle on my iPhone 8 Plus. You use the Moment case, which has a sweet little bayonet mount that assures alignment and fit. It's surprisingly good, definitely the best optic out there for a smartphone currently. All metal construction, aspheric elements, the image stays sharp out to the corners, what's not to like? I agree, no comparison to a "real lens" yet, but couple all of that DSP and computing power coming soon with the lens manufacturers who have to follow the trends and I could easily visualize high end smartphone glass that rivals anything short of high end cinema optics of today. What would stop a smartphone manufacturer from offering a model with a micro bayonet mount only with no included lens, especially for video/film customers?

Many people today, myself included, are shooting video with still camera lenses on cameras a high end as Varicam LTs and REDs, I think that smartphone optics could easily rival the quality of those in a matter of a few years. A lot of very smart people, computing and optical engineers are convinced that DSP and integrated optics can solve almost any optical challenge eventually. Have you checked out the Lytro technology? Companies like Veydra, Rokinon, Leica and Zeiss must also know that this is the direction the market is heading toward and I don't see all of them just watching their markets evaporate, the smart ones will be ahead or at this curve with solutions. Sure, it will add weight and bulk but the whole package is still relatively small and light in comparison to a GH5S or an A7 RIII, not to mention cheaper. I'm curious how long the Canon, Sonys and Panasonics of the world will keep their fingers in their ears. We went super 8 > S16 > video cameras > Smaller video cameras > smaller digital video cameras > DSLRs > mirrorless. The next logical step is smartphones and or smartphone-like devices. Smaller, lighter, cheaper with ever increasing quality. Also, if you are capturing with an 8k, 12k or 16k imager, and your output is 4k or 6k, that gives you a lot of image to play with and manipulate, change focus fields, stabilize, etc. This is all stuff that's hard to wrap our heads around with our current mindsets but history proves it's going to happen, it's just a matter of Moore's Law, market forces and innovation rate. Heck, even the primitive "portrait mode" that my iPhone 8 Plus uses that utilizes both the internal 25mm and 50mm lenses portends this, it's not very good. Yet. But imagine in three generations where that will be with pseudo DOF, digital/optical servo zooming with stabilization, etc.
 
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puredrifting said:
Just to touch on that, I am using the $100.00 Moment 18mm equivalent wide angle on my iPhone 8 Plus. You use the Moment case, which has a sweet little bayonet mount that assures alignment and fit. It's surprisingly good, definitely the best optic out there for a smartphone currently. All metal construction, aspheric elements, the image stays sharp out to the corners, what's not to like? I agree, no comparison to a "real lens" yet, but couple all of that DSP and computing power coming soon with the lens manufacturers who have to follow the trends and I could easily visualize high end smartphone glass that rivals anything short of high end cinema optics of today. What would stop a smartphone manufacturer from offering a model with a micro bayonet mount only with no included lens, especially for video/film customers?

Many people today, myself included, are shooting video with still camera lenses on cameras a high end as Varicam LTs and REDs, I think that smartphone optics could easily rival the quality of those in a matter of a few years. A lot of very smart people, computing and optical engineers are convinced that DSP and integrated optics can solve almost any optical challenge eventually. Have you checked out the Lytro technology? Companies like Veydra, Rokinon, Leica and Zeiss must also know that this is the direction the market is heading toward and I don't see all of them just watching their markets evaporate, the smart ones will be ahead or at this curve with solutions. Sure, it will add weight and bulk but the whole package is still relatively small and light in comparison to a GH5S or an A7 RIII, not to mention cheaper. I'm curious how long the Canon, Sonys and Panasonics of the world will keep their fingers in their ears. We went super 8 > S16 > video cameras > Smaller video cameras > smaller digital video cameras > DSLRs > mirrorless. The next logical step is smartphones and or smartphone-like devices. Smaller, lighter, cheaper with ever increasing quality. Also, if you are capturing with an 8k, 12k or 16k imager, and your output is 4k or 6k, that gives you a lot of image to play with and manipulate, change focus fields, stabilize, etc. This is all stuff that's hard to wrap our heads around with our current mindsets but history proves it's going to happen, it's just a matter of Moore's Law, market forces and innovation rate. Heck, even the primitive "portrait mode" that my iPhone 8 Plus uses that utilizes both the internal 25mm and 50mm lenses portends this, it's not very good. Yet. But imagine in three generations where that will be with pseudo DOF, digital/optical servo zooming with stabilization, etc.
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Didn't Google just acquired Lytro?
 
puredrifting said:
Just to touch on that, I am using the $100.00 Moment 18mm equivalent wide angle on my iPhone 8 Plus. You use the Moment case, which has a sweet little bayonet mount that assures alignment and fit. It's surprisingly good, definitely the best optic out there for a smartphone currently. All metal construction, aspheric elements, the image stays sharp out to the corners, what's not to like? I agree, no comparison to a "real lens" yet, but couple all of that DSP and computing power coming soon with the lens manufacturers who have to follow the trends and I could easily visualize high end smartphone glass that rivals anything short of high end cinema optics of today. What would stop a smartphone manufacturer from offering a model with a micro bayonet mount only with no included lens, especially for video/film customers?

Many people today, myself included, are shooting video with still camera lenses on cameras a high end as Varicam LTs and REDs, I think that smartphone optics could easily rival the quality of those in a matter of a few years. A lot of very smart people, computing and optical engineers are convinced that DSP and integrated optics can solve almost any optical challenge eventually. Have you checked out the Lytro technology? Companies like Veydra, Rokinon, Leica and Zeiss must also know that this is the direction the market is heading toward and I don't see all of them just watching their markets evaporate, the smart ones will be ahead or at this curve with solutions. Sure, it will add weight and bulk but the whole package is still relatively small and light in comparison to a GH5S or an A7 RIII, not to mention cheaper. I'm curious how long the Canon, Sonys and Panasonics of the world will keep their fingers in their ears. We went super 8 > S16 > video cameras > Smaller video cameras > smaller digital video cameras > DSLRs > mirrorless. The next logical step is smartphones and or smartphone-like devices. Smaller, lighter, cheaper with ever increasing quality. Also, if you are capturing with an 8k, 12k or 16k imager, and your output is 4k or 6k, that gives you a lot of image to play with and manipulate, change focus fields, stabilize, etc. This is all stuff that's hard to wrap our heads around with our current mindsets but history proves it's going to happen, it's just a matter of Moore's Law, market forces and innovation rate. Heck, even the primitive "portrait mode" that my iPhone 8 Plus uses that utilizes both the internal 25mm and 50mm lenses portends this, it's not very good. Yet. But imagine in three generations where that will be with pseudo DOF, digital/optical servo zooming with stabilization, etc.
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I'm not going to say you are wrong, because you probably aren't, but if that happens I think it's more of a result of economy of scale rather than pure quality. If the same amount of resources and time were poured into large sensor and lens development as are currently being poured into smart phone cameras, I think we would see much higher quality out of the larger sensors and lenses than we could ever see out of the smart phones.

I'm not sure what the future will bring, but two decades ago many of us were shooting miniDV on smaller sensors with autofocus and powered zooms. Today we've got larger sensors, mostly manual focus and rarely a powered zoom in sight. The higher end of the market seems to be trending toward even larger sensors like the new ARRI LF and 65, the RED FF sensor, Venice and the new C700 FF.
I also think there is something to be said about ergonomics. The human hand isn't getting smaller. Personally I struggle with some of these mirrorless cameras as is and would prefer something larger. Something between maybe a C100 and a 5D in size would be ideal for me.

If I had to take a guess over the short term (5 years), I think we'll start gaining back some of the things we lost moving to larger sensors. Things like autofocus and powered zooms. After that, who knows.
 
roxics said:
... I think it's more of a result of economy of scale rather than pure quality. If the same amount of resources and time were poured into large sensor and lens development as are currently being poured into smart phone cameras, I think we would see much higher quality out of the larger sensors and lenses than we could ever see out of the smart phones.
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Speaking of economy of scale, imagine what a Gh5s or a Arri Alexa would cost if they were making 4 million units per day as are the smart phone manufacturers.
 
zijital said:
One problem with zooms is physics. If you want a large sensor & a long zoom lens, you're going to have a huge lens, there is no way around it. So cameras bodies might get smaller, but lenses can't.
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True, though there is some progress on the powered zoom front. Look at the Canon 18-135 Nano USM with the power zoom adapter.
 
To take an even higher level view, I've lived and worked from the analog (film) era, then analog video (3/4. 3/4 SP, Betacam, Beta SP) era, into the digital video tape, then solid state era. The stuff we have available today in a camera like the GH5S would have absolutely boggled the mind of a working pro even a decade ago, if you could have given the GH5S to them for a day and then they could see the 4K 400 Mbps signal they just shot on a nice 4K screen on a $2,500.00 tiny stills looking camera. I see no reason why it won't be the same, if someone from the future could pop in on any of us today from five or ten year from now and put in our hands what's possible from then, our brains would melt. It'a all at an exponential pace too!
 
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NewsShooter is one of my faves along with Cinema5D. Heavy coverage at these two, always.

I also scan these...

RedSharkNews
4KShooters.net
All of the rumor sites; CanonRumors, CanonWatch, MirrorlessRumors, 43Rumors, SonyAlphaRumors, etc.
Some others - CheesyCam, EOSHD, ProVideoCoalition, FCP.co

I hit up REDuser frequently to see what people over there are arguing about daily...

Those are mainly for gear and software, but there are others for all kinds of technology too.

(Of course you don't need to type them with any caps...just presenting them that way here.)

I just like to read and do as much research as possible.
 
One of the first interesting NAB announcements I've seen: NiSi F3 Cinema Prime Lens set
https://www.newsshooter.com/2018/03/15/nisi-full-frame-pl-mount-f3-prime-lenses-nab-2018/
http://en.nisifilters.com/nisi-f3-prime-cinema-lens-pre-order

No idea if the optics are any good, but those pictures (probably 3D renders) look sweet, they cover full frame, they use interchangeable PL/EF/E mounts. The full set (5 lenses) is ~$12k. They are also rebranded as Kinefinity, in case you've heard about those.
 
NorBro said:
NewsShooter is one of my faves along with Cinema5D. Heavy coverage at these two, always.

I also scan these...

RedSharkNews
4KShooters.net
All of the rumor sites; CanonRumors, CanonWatch, MirrorlessRumors, 43Rumors, SonyAlphaRumors, etc.
Some others - CheesyCam, EOSHD, ProVideoCoalition, FCP.co

I hit up REDuser frequently to see what people over there are arguing about daily...

Those are mainly for gear and software, but there are others for all kinds of technology too.

(Of course you don't need to type them with any caps...just presenting them that way here.)

I just like to read and do as much research as possible.
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Hello DVX-ers, Ogy from 4KShooters.net here. Thanks for including our little blog in the list above.

Yes, we'll be covering NAB 2018 as usual, unfortunately we won't have a rep at the show floor. However, I have been privy to quite a few upcoming product announcements, which will be made public very soon. I am under NDA on quite a few things, so I cannot say anything further - but as usual we'll do our best post the main product announcements from all major manufacturers and a few new ones on the blog. Thank you for your support and I hope those of you attending NAB have lots of fun.

Happy NAB-ing :)
 
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