is AI gonna take our jobs?

Liam Hall said:
content aware fill, for example. I've used it successfully for extending the canvas as you've done on the portrait above.
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I took a look at adobe's content-aware fill for video when it first came out and it didn't seem ready for prime time. has it improved?

and can it do objects/people? or more just like background stuff? the tricky part of the basquiat portrait above isn't the canvas but adding the rest of his arms.

I get the impression that all these tools will converge, that different AIs doing similar things perform similarly. the techniques and technology percolate into all of them. training AIs is getting cheaper, and every company will be able to make their own. the full array of functions will basically be folded into every NLE eventually
 
ahalpert said:
There's a columnist at Bloomberg who likes to say that dystopia is when robots take over half your jobs. Utopia is when robots take over half your job.
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MLB world react to massive umpire news (msn.com)


While fans hoping to see robot umpires during the upcoming 2023 Major League Baseball season will still have to wait, they also won’t have to look too far to find them. Robot umpires will reportedly be implemented in all 30 Triple-A stadiums during the 2023 season​
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Earl Weaver will need a robot to help him roll over in his grave.
 
The European soccer has been using video replays for only a few years. With human referees monitoring the replays. Unlike the NFL, various fouls/collisions are also a subject to a review (and without a coach's challenge). During the most recent break from action, the English officials reviewed every call made in the early part of the season and found a gaggle of the blown ones ... but the overall percentage was minuscule.

And the "goal line technology" - similar to what is used in tennis - works perfectly. The on-the-pitch ref has a "watch", which buzzes if the ball fully went in.

PS. I was watching an NHL game last night, where the Florida Panthers scored a goal that was initially disallowed because the goal cage was taken off his mooring by a Florida player. After watching the replays for 3-4 minutes, the decision was overturned and goal was instead allowed because the purportedly infringing player was judged to have been infringed himself (i.e., he was pushed into the cage by an opposing defenseman) Which means that the baseball minors will still have umpires to judge the action on the pitch. On the other hand, they could probably do it off a monitor somewhere in an HQ too.
 
ahalpert said:
Kinda seems like having robot umpires will dampen spectator enjoyment, especially since what little appeal baseball still has is rooted in an old timey kind of charm

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OK, a NSFW classic from Earl Weaver. F-bombs galore. But he knew what he was doing. No robot can recreate this.

 
BTW, I slightly misquoted the Bloomberg columnist (Noah Smith). He wrote:

"Remember: Dystopia is when robots take half your jobs. Utopia is when robots take half your job."

This was in response to a tweet by Ethan Mollick stating "Automation may not be such a threat: only one of the 270 jobs described in the 1950 census has been eliminated by automation... elevator operator. Other jobs that were expected to be automated, like bank tellers by ATMs, just shifted the nature of the job"

Attached is a graph where, as you can see, the number of bank tellers stayed roughly constant even as ATMs proliferated. Hopefully this is analogous to the future of our industry:

EvmWwPzXcAUxlH1?format=jpg&name=medium.jpg
 
Here's a detailed prediction about the AI economy by Francois Chollet, an AI researcher who works for Google. I follow him on Twitter and find him insightful.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1620615572844343297.html

The near future of AI is to serve as a universal assistant. Whatever you create on a computer -- slides, code, spreadsheets, docs, tunes, 3D environments, etc. -- you will be able to leverage a digital assistant to help you with boilerplate, filling in details, autocomplete, etc. For the most part, this will not happen via brand new standalone products. Instead, existing products (IDEs, office solutions, etc.) will integrate AI as a feature.
For instance, it is *possible* that someone will make an AI-first Unreal Engine and take over Unreal Engine. But the much more likely outcome is Unreal Engine getting its own AI.

In the future, everyone will be interacting with such assistant features -- all the time. It will be as widespread a tech interface as touchscreens.
Simultaneously, the "10x productivity boost" (or even 5x) that social media engagement farmers have been promising you will fail to materialize.

Yes, it will be useful. No, it will not revolutionize the nature of work.
5 yrs from now it will be obvious that software engineers aren't being 10x more productive than in 2022. They'll be incrementally more productive -- an increase in line with historical averages. IDEs, debuggers, linters, better frameworks -- productivity boosts abound. AI is one.
Similarly, the current wave of AI is not going to be automating away all the jobs and cause mass unemployment. 10 years from now, we will still enjoy similar levels of employment (i.e. close to full employment).
And crucially, I don't think being a provider of AI as a service will be a huge business. It will be a decent-size market, but for the most part AI will be a commodity tech. It will be a feature in a lot of products, built with commodity OSS software and models.
The ability to train big models is not a moat. Anyone with enough budget can replicate your model in a matter of months.

A much better moat is to have a novel and clever way of using AI in a useful product.
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Pre-covid I saw a demo of an AI based editing platform. Hand it a bunch of clips and it would generate a finished edit. The demo was to a group mostly focused on blockchain tech but I don’t think it used blockchain. May have used IPFS. At any rate I’m curious if that ever evolved since I haven’t heard anything about it since then. The demo looked pretty good, a dinner party if I recall.
 
J Michael said:
Pre-covid I saw a demo of an AI based editing platform. Hand it a bunch of clips and it would generate a finished edit. The demo was to a group mostly focused on blockchain tech but I don’t think it used blockchain. May have used IPFS. At any rate I’m curious if that ever evolved since I haven’t heard anything about it since then. The demo looked pretty good, a dinner party if I recall.
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Let me know if you find the name of such a platform. I was looking for an automated editor recently and didn't find one
 
Did people see about the Getty lawsuit? From Jan 17:

This week Getty Images commenced legal proceedings in the High Court of Justice in London against Stability AI claiming Stability AI infringed intellectual property rights including copyright in content owned or represented by Getty Images. It is Getty Images’ position that Stability AI unlawfully copied and processed millions of images protected by copyright and the associated metadata owned or represented by Getty Images absent a license to benefit Stability AI’s commercial interests and to the detriment of the content creators.
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https://newsroom.gettyimages.com/en/getty-images/getty-images-statement
 
ahalpert said:
Here's a detailed prediction about the AI economy by Francois Chollet, an AI researcher who works for Google
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I think he is wrong. But I don't know how. My autocomplete is on the fritz.

Seriously though - yes, this will impact somebody somewhere. Much like technology eliminated lamplighters, knocker-uppers, elevator operators and video store clerks. I applied for a knocker-upper job once and was told that it was already taken by a displaced milkman.
 
DLD said:
I think he is wrong. But I don't know how. My autocomplete is on the fritz.

Seriously though - yes, this will impact somebody somewhere. Much like technology eliminated lamplighters, knocker-uppers, elevator operators and video store clerks. I applied for a knocker-upper job once and was told that it was already taken by a displaced milkman.
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He didn't say it wouldn't automate any jobs. He said it wouldn't automate all the jobs. When he predicts that we'll maintain full employment, I assume he means that some people will transition to different jobs.

Here's another recent article I wanted to share, about a food photography-generating AI aimed at restaurants:

https://petapixel.com/2023/01/30/lu...ers-as-the-first-ai-image-generator-for-food/
 
The problem with the AI food images is that real live restaurants won't come close to it. They have a hard time getting close to the well staged high res photos as it is. But, at least, dishes are made by real chefs/cooks.

Side note - food photography is something a modern smartphone can do pretty well. All yous gots to do is make a darn meal.
 
The jig is up -- researchers at Google have shown how AI image generators can and do recreate the exact images they were trained on when prompted. I'm not sure what the legal implications are, but to me this proves that they aren't behaving like a human artist who draws inspiration from the works of others and then creates something new. They're essentially piecing together (usually with alterations) something that they've seen before. Essentially, direct copying is part of the process.

https://petapixel.com/2023/02/02/ai-image-generators-can-exactly-replicate-copyrighted-photos/

AI Image Generators Can Exactly Replicate Copyrighted Photos
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LAWL

What is incredibly ironic about that is that Google declared a "Code Red" over ChatGPT a few weeks ago, which basically means they are concerned about its threat and are refocusing and redirecting all of their corporate energy towards it and similar endeavors.
 
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