How will Panasonic, JVC, Sony, Thomson, Etc.. Respond?

Sony will respond by creating some overpriced proprietary system that doesn't work with anyone else's equipment and requires proprietary media and proprietary hardware. And it will be based on interlaced chips. (Just a wild hunch, but given their recent behavior this would seem to be completely in line with everything else they've done).

JVC is taking a different angle, they canceled their proposed 2/3" HDV camera and are instead focusing on the more affordable/under $10,000 arena. So in effect they've already responded, and I wouldn't expect them to expend a lot of R&D on a bigger-chip camera anytime soon.

Thomson's too early to respond -- they are just now launching their first foray into this price bracket, and it (the Infinity) would in and of itself have been the headline-stealing uber-cool high-def inexpensive breakthrough cam of the year, had Red not already come along and stolen their thunder. So don't expect any response from them for quite a while, they have to get their current product off the ground. And, of course, with Infinity not offering 24p, it's not necessarily too high on DVXUser wish lists anyway.

Panasonic will respond with a VariCam II, and if past history is any indication they'll probably listen quite intently to what the customer wants, and then give it to them. But I would be very surprised if it was as inexpensive as the Red body. And I don't know that it would be UHD, as HD is still basically in its infancy. Probably at the bare minimum multi-resolution recording with true 1080/60p and 720/60p and true variable frame rates, with various codecs (they've announced future products will have P2 support for DVCPRO-HD and H.264 already), US & EU versions all-in-one, etc. Maybe higher-speed "native mode" overcranking -- 120p played back in a 60p stream or 24p stream?
 
Where the heck is Nikon?
They used to make super 8 cameras and even one 8mm video camera, why have they gone completely missing in the DV or HD world?

Oh and I agree with Barry about everything and find the Sony comment especially funny because it's so true. They're off in their own little world over there.
 
Maybe Canon ist the company that ist best prepared - if they manage to develop something spinning off out of their SLR-corner.
 
When it comes to Canon, I don't think they've got anything going on. They've depended on the uncompressed HD-SDI as the high-end solution for their camera line, so unless they come out with a Canon XLH1s with uncompressed audio to go with that uncompressed HD-SDI, then they've got nothing that will get people going over the RED. Still, it's hard to beat in the lower-level arena, but still tied with Panasonic. However, the RED closed the gap, for $7,500 more or so you could have a much more capable and future-friendly camera.

But, there's a whole lot to consider at this point, so it's so hard to say how anyone will react, even us!

The RED is a few quarters off, there's still the question of distribution for even regular HD(V) content, no NLE company has provided any information regarding 4K support or support for the RED Codec in general (though I'm sure many are on board), and who knows what else could happen between now and 1Q of 2007?
 
So far I haven't seen anything competitive in RED's price point, but it would be funny to see other manufacturers to be forced to cut some 80% of their prices due to RED...:)
 
just wait! you will see some good stuff from everyone very soon :) Its what you don't know that keeps the industry alive.:dankk2:
 
Panasonic and Sony made a joint press release this morning about a jointly-developed new high definition recording format that they call AVCHD. It uses MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 compression to record to 8cm DVD media. It records in 1080i and 720p.

Link: http://www.digitalproducer.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=42795

The AVCHD format is obviously aimed at the inexpensive HD camcorder market, and I wouldn't expect Sony of Panasonic to impact their high-end or mid-level offerings, but Pansonic also made their own press release today that they are developing products to record the new AVCHD format onto SD cards. With their P2/SD card experience, It wouldn't surprise me to see Panasonic develop a mid-priced AVCHD camcorder that records to SD cards (or P2) that is aimed at a portion of RED's niche - 1080p, 1080i, and 720p.

Link to the Panasonic AVCHD SD card development press release: http://www.digitalproducer.com/articles/viewarticle.jsp?id=42794

Gibby
www.cut4.tv
 
Sony and Panasonic cannot respond to RED, their business model of product differentiation, diffusion, segmentation and the 'professional premium' doesn't allow it. They will continue as they have done with incremental improvements in facility and value. They will compete with the likes of RED in terms of product spread and professional services. Over time their customer base will doubtless erode away but its years yet before a change in strategy will be thought necessary. Its the normal cycle of things as established players are usurped by innovative exploiters of technology.

So there.
 
Vinney57,

You may have some valid points there, but what's up with the "So there"? As a new member with three posts under your belt, you might want to tread a little lighter than that. Constructive input is welcome - but "So there" can be taken as flamebait.

Gibby
www.cut4.tv
 
The AVCHD thing sounds like it would've been really cool about 2 years ago. By recording to DVD, they're basically taking the same stance that HDV did; use a widespread (but tiny) storage as a medium for acquisition. That obviously translates into heavier compression to get the data to fit onto the discs (which hold a third of the data as a MiniDV tape as it is!), when the last time I checked, the entire point of HD was to get more out of the pictures, not less. With Red being UHD - and 4:4:4 with uncompressed options available at that - anything less won't be able to be treated as "competition." I personally think that with the current business models of the big companies, it's going to be rather difficult for them to counter with anything remotely in the same price range.
 
AVC-HD on the mini-DVD does indeed sound rather outdated before it's even launched. But it doesn't have to stay on mini-DVD; Panasonic's already announced that they're going to make direct-to-SD card versions, and Sanyo's been selling a direct-to-SD MPEG4 camera for a while now (although I'm pretty sure it doesn't comply with AVC-HD).

But AVC-HD has about as much to do with being competition for the RED as VHS does with HDCAM-SR...
 
I have to agree with Haakon to an extent. The AVCHD thing sounds cool in a retrofitting kind of way. It interests me in the same kind of way that recording images to vinyl disks interest me. A novel idea even though its only mildly useful.

Now if these discs had been blu-ray discs that held an hours worth of 720/24p at 4:2:2 or better that would be a different story.

It just seems like these days people are so easy to accept even greater compression then they had before. I remember when DV was looked down on. Now we've got companies shoehorning HD footage into an even smaller space and everyones excited about it. I guess because we know we don't have a choice. We can only buy what they offer us. While I admit it's all about the final result that really counts. But I just feel like these companies can do so much better but they refuse to.

With all that said, hopefully I'm wrong and this is a great new format. But it just feels like a flash in the pan to me until the real replacement comes along.
 
The format is likely to stay for a while, although I'd suspect that the mini-DVD recording media is going to be the flash-in-the-pan part. Record the same data to an SD card and now things make a lot more sense -- stable reliable media with no worries about shock/drop/scratches/anything else. The SD version seems like it makes sense for a consumer format, although I agree that the miniDVD version seems silly.

And both companies say that the miniDVD is for today; they intend to produce blu-ray-disc versions too.
 
The thing against Red as far as becoming a main player in the camera industry is fighting the encumbants. They might have WAY better technology but all the people, workflow's, studios etc are setup/educated to use the big player's gear. Panny/Sony etc all will not have to compete for a number of years really. Change is something people resist. Shoulder brick cam users like their cams, they're used to them, love em, polish em every night. The freaky looking Red doin all this fandangled framerates, and resolutions and stuff it just not going to be of much interest to the camera folk (I'm talking ENG/TV etc here cause that's what we're talking about)
 
I have no doubt that the major players are going to survive quite nicely even with Red out there and thriving! I get the feeling, however, that Red will be able to fit in small studios and certainly will have a large impact on allowing smaller film producers, small studios, and independent producers who have to come up with limited budgets a shot on all markets. That to me translates into more competition and that's good for getting the big boys listening and providing the kind of gear that's a bit more useful to us small producers. It's a market and one that's growing so there's plenty of room to grow. My main concern will be support for Red. That's going to take some careful thinking and I hope we who live in the far flung will have a way to get things fixed when we need it.
 
Avchd

Avchd

I think Jan mentioned that the avchd format is for the consumer cams and not the prosumer and higher market.

Also, though I know that this is the RED forum and there are fanatical people here, I wouldn't be so excited about RED until I see a working prototype and some test footage. And although Jim has released a price for the cam, I'm sure it's subject to change. We're still way too far away from the release date of this cam to begin speculating on who's going out of business. Remember, Sony, Panasonic, JVC, and Canon are all large enough company to fight a price war.

I hope RED does succeed; comes out with a ridiculously great camera at a ridiculously cheap price and all the other companies do likewise and prices drop to HVX level prices. Imagine 4k cams at sub$10k levels. Then we'd have nothing more to talk about except polishing those scripts and our skills. Ahhh...to dream the impossible dream.
 
I wouldn't imagine that the ultra high end crowd is the largest source of income for these companies. Panasonic without the Varicam, isn't an unprofitable company. Even if the RED supplanted every single high end camera over night, there is still the consumer and prosumer market.

I don't know how many people the red is honestly going to replace in the prosumer market. The FX1 is going to be left alone. The HVX is probably going to be pretty unphased. The Canon might be under a bit of pressure, but we're talking about a 100-200% price difference. That isn't small. It's going to be a challenge to convince people to pay 22k for a 1080 camera, when the 1080 camera they're using right now for 8k is working out pretty splendidly. "Red, a camera that works today but is ready for tommarow." Kind of makes you stop and wonder why you shouldn't just buy a camera tommarow when you're ready for it.

When a camera like the red drops into the sub 10k dollar price range, we can start talking about the doom and gloom of the big players. Seems to me that the only people really interested in progressive recording are in the narrative film industry. Not that large of a market for the big players.
 
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im.thatoneguy said:
It's going to be a challenge to convince people to pay 22k for a 1080 camera, when the 1080 camera they're using right now for 8k is working out pretty splendidly. "Red, a camera that works today but is ready for tommarow." Kind of makes you stop and wonder why you shouldn't just buy a camera tommarow when you're ready for it.
Click to expand...

Hmmm...getting 35mm depth of field in their 1080 productions, and having maximum earning potential for the broadest range of projects should be major considerations. I've recently reviewed almost every 1/3" high definition camcorder for magazine articles, and though each has it's strengths and weaknesses, and each is really usable for a wide range of projects, especially the HVX, what they all have in common is the limitation of inherently-deep depth of field from their 1/3" CCDs, and either limitations from their fixed lenses, or a limited choice of effective lenses for the removable lens cameras. Even great glass on the front of an XL-H1 or HD100 suffers from the 1/3" CCD limitations.

Being able to bid a wide range of contract or freelance productions is the lifeblood of a broad spectrum of the production industry. Rental accounts are also part of that workflow. Own a basic system - and rent what you need on a per-project basis, and build that into the client-billed budget. The broader the spectrum of projects we can bid, the quicker we're able to pay off our equipment, and the more production genre knowledge base we accumulate. In short, because the RED camera has so many potential configurations and genres of production it can be used on, from cine-style to ENG-style, it has a lot more potential earning power than any of the 1/3" high definition cameras.

If you only work in 720p, 1080i, or 1080p, but you also have the option to bid or freelance yourself out to 2k or 4k projects, I think that's smart business - now and for the future.

Upward mobility that can pay for itself is a good thing...

Gibby
www.cut4.tv
 
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