HDV the future?

Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=Barry_Green link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=15#15 date=12/28/04 at 09:58:57]
If there was 1080p/50 then it'd be a no-brainer, but there isn't, so for the fast refresh rate you have to go 720p. And that's what they're likely going to do. Which is no problem for HDV, as it supports 1080/50i as well as 720/50p. But it would be a problem for 1080i camcorder buyers (like FX1 and Z1).[/quote]

Sony FD Trinitron WEGA KV-34XBR910 34 in. Direct View Flat Screen HDTV-Ready Television.

The TV's native resolution is 1080i, and is capable of displaying 480i, 480p, 720p and of course 1080i. 720p signals are upconverted to 1080i. This is important to note, because on some 1080i TV's, 720p is down converted to 480p.

I don't see any problem for FX1 or Z1U buyers.
 
Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=ChuckS link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=15#19 date=12/28/04 at 11:33:09] Recently I saw the first consumer HD-DVD at BestBuy for $150 it looked great. [/quote]

What are you talking about? There are no HD-DVD players on the market, and the price point will be WELL above $150. I think what you saw was the Samsung DVD player which “upconverts” its signal. This is not HD-DVD.

With the introduction of HD resolution DVD’s, HD will finally gain enough traction and will experience explosive growth.
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Maybe, maybe not. D-VHS flopped, despite initial promise. HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray) will probably not be any more widely accepted until market forces bring the prices down to accessible levels – and that’s probably years away. A lot can happen in that time, including widespread acceptance of an entirely different delivery system, including broadband downloads.

It was said before that quality alone does not drive the market into adopting something, and the same is true for HD. It may NEVER take off simply because it looks better. D-VHS probably never went anywhere, even among HD adopters, because as much as it looked and sounded nicer, it was (*cough*) tape. There was no convenience factor.

The point being, of course, that given the choice between replacing all of their DVD equipment and DVD library in favor of HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray), and, say, downloading content, they might just choose to download – and they might just find SD sufficient. HD might be much further down the road than you may think.

Personally, I do think HD will eventually be adopted, but I think it will be slow.in coming. And I think a better consumer-level format than HDV will come along in that time.

But only time tells the future.
 
Re: HDV the future?

Sure, IP distribution (video-on-demand) has a lot of promise, but I would argue that we are a lot further away from that than we are from HD distribution. Remember, HD has been around for 25 years or so and the speed and volume of re-mastering movies and television shows over the past three years for HD is amazing. HD has already taken off.

I had the chance to view an HDDVD being displayed using and HD-DVD player on a DLP projector at IVC (in Burbank) over a year ago. Although they had not set the price the product manager did not think it would be all that expensive.
 
Re: HDV the future?

Hey, I already made my decision -- my first HDTV was purchased in 2001. But that HD has been around in one form or another since the late '70s doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot. Remember all those picture phones which have popped up every 7-10 years or so, which would *really* (this time we mean it, for sure!) drive the market into needing to get made up to answer the phone at 7:00 in the morning? The market moves at its own pace and quite often doesn't make the decisions that we'd like it to, or think it should.

IP distribution is only one example, of course. There could be something no one has thought of, or something being invented in someone's basement as we speak.

What I'm saying is that HD is nice. I personally love it. But it's not THAT revolutionary. It's not the quantum leap that, say, VHS to DVD was. It just looks better, and my observation is that people need something a bit more than a mere quality improvement to move toward it. (Notice the non-adoption of SACD or DVD-Audio by the audiophile market. It sounds better. It's cooler. But it's not much more than what they already had.)

I mean, everyone I've shown HDTV to has marveled at how clear it is. Exactly none has subsequently gone out to buy one.

I do think it's going to be pretty slow, and really don't think HD-DVD is going to move it any faster. Heck, I'll probably be one of the first to buy a player. But that's just me.
 
Re: HDV the future?

Barry i could be wrong, but in Europe and the UK the thought over here and i believe other users in the UK will agree with me, 720P in our eyes as nice as it is, its not really a big "step" up in quaility from your avergage 576 line PAL format maybe going from NTSC to 720P there is bigger difference, but it seems most users like watching 1080i over 720P, take a look at euro1080 its the only satelite channel thats broadcasting right now in europe and its 1080i,

i think HD is comming to the UK, BskyB has already said that they will launch HD satelite (mainstream) in the UK, but its planned till 2007 (i think, off the top of my head, please correct me)

Also here in the UK, HD is being "sneaked in" LCD TV are fast becoming *the* must have item and some of them are dual (ie accept PC signal, and have over 720P res) also their are PC garphics card that have DVI outputs, plasmas and large LCD TV are all sneaking it in...

The BBC have shot quite a lot of TV stuff in HD one example was the grid it was aired over in the USA (in HD) in the UK we only had SD, but boy was it sleek, i thought it was shoot on film when i watched it (only to find out later was shoot on HD)

just the other day, my brother was driving in his car using the Pocket PC sat-nav whilst he was having a video call on his Third generation mobile! DAMN it technologys moving too fast..
 
Re: HDV the future?

I think that it is important to remember that while looking at the numbers 576 and 720 there doesn't seem to be a big difference, there is. Right now, unless there is something fishy going on that I don't know about over in the UK, PAL is brodcast as 50i at a resolution of 576lines. Going from a brodcast of an interlaced source to 720progressive lines is a big jump, thats almost double the resolution. So there is a big difference, however, I don't live there so I can't tell you first hand, but I can tell you that there is no way that a PAL signal right now can compare to anything that I have seen on an HDTV at true 720p.
 
Re: HDV the future?

My understanding is that HD is a non-event in Europe right now, and the EBU is preparing to endorse either 1080i or 720p, and 720p is supposedly far in the lead (although it won't be known until they make their recommendation).

As for res/pixels/etc., PAL provides a usable, discernible 7.25 million pixels per second.  720/50p provides over 46 million pixels per second.  That's a difference of about six times as many pixels per second (a lot more than one would think, if just comparing 576 against 720!)
 
Re: HDV the future?

Scandinavian countries are moving faster into the HD word than other europian countries.
 
Re: HDV the future?

The situation with what Europe will pick is something that will not be settled in a year. I not believe this the DV prosumer market is as big some believe. Looking at annual reports for sony, canon, and panasonics parent company, no one mentions this market. Selling 200,000+ high end DV camcorder will mean several hundred millions earnings, that can be ignore. This market is much much smaller. The current DVCPRO-HD machines that panasonic offers go for $50,000+, sure the exchangeable lens and larger sensors count for something but not for the that large difference. The miniDV cameras, xl2, pd170, vx2100, etc are all consumer cameras, they are high end but consumer cameras
 
Re: HDV the future?

I should have said, minidv which is used in all these cameras was conceived as a consumer format.
 
Re: HDV the future?

Depends on how you define "consumer" -- if you're looking to find it on the balance sheet, the PD170 comes from Sony's broadcast & professional division, but the VX2100 comes from the consumer electronics division. Same with JVC and their HD1 and HD10. The DVX comes from Panasonic's broadcast division, but the GS400 etc. come from the consumer division.

Many consumers are buying PD170's and DVX's, that's for sure. But they're marketed and warranted through the professional divisions.

Just for point of clarification, I don't think Sony's selling 200,000 PD170's per year! It's been out for about four years, between the PD150 and PD170, and over the course of that amount of time I think it's reasonable to think they've sold at least 100,000 and more likely 200,000. The DVX has been out for a couple of years, I'm thinking it's likely done 50,000 units on the low end, and maybe 100,000 since introduction two years ago.

200,000 PD150's, at an assumed dealer cost of $3000 (ballpark, who knows?) would put sales at $600 million gross, or maybe $150m per year. How much of that is profit is completely unknown -- maybe they get to keep $500 per camera? If so, that'd be a net profit to the division of around $25 million per year. That's a lot, but for a company that does around $71 billion per year in sales, I don't think it's all that significant a number. I mean, what does $150 million in annual sales represent out of $71 billion in total sales -- 0.2%?

So, in a way I'm agreeing with you -- the prosumer DV market is a nearly insignificant blip on the overall revenues of behemoths like Sony and Panasonic. However, that doesn't mean it's necessarily a tiny market, and Sony could sell $150 million worth of PD150's and have it still represent less than one fifth of one percent of their overall revenues.

But, hey, my numbers could be entirely off as well. It's just guesswork.
 
Re: HDV the future?

HD getting headway in UK....yes may be. Actually I dont want to bring in the terminology of 'trans-atlantic divide'  ;), as it is more of a political connotation, and perhaps not suitable for discussion on this forum.

As for the comment on HD getting headway in Scandinavia....frankly I know little both about HD and Scandinavia, on this very issue. Hopefully some one more knowledgable will comment. However I do know that since the last 2 years or so, I have been eagerly waiting to see how an HD tv actually looks like. At least till this Christmas it was not available in Sweden.
 
Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=ettubaby link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=15#28 date=12/28/04 at 22:28:28] Looking at annual reports for sony, canon, and panasonics parent company, no one mentions this market. Selling 200,000+ high end DV camcorder will mean several hundred millions earnings, that can be ignore. [/quote]

Sony has already sold 15 000 camcorders with 1080i/24.
 
Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=Aejaz link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=30#31 date=12/29/04 at 02:31:11]
As for the comment on HD getting headway in Scandinavia....frankly I know little both about HD and Scandinavia, on this very issue. Hopefully some one more knowledgable will comment. However I do know that since the last 2 years or so, I have been eagerly waiting to see how an HD tv actually looks like. At least till this Christmas it was not available in Sweden. [/quote]

Sweden stops analog broadcasting in 3 major teritories from 2005. Have you seen any of this in Sweden? http://www.pioneer.se/se/product_overview.jsp?category_id=413&taxonomy_id=62-63
 
Re: HDV the future?

Thanx for the link....but I thought Plasma TVs/LCD TVs were fundamentally different technologies than the HD TV...No?

And as for the analog transmission, I read in the paper the other day that the Swedish government had allowd TV4, one of the leading channels here, to keep on with their analog broadcasts till 2008 ..if I remember correctly.
 
Re: HDV the future?

Ettubaby said:I saw a couple of threads debating the whether to wait for Panasonic to come out with a DVCPRO HD model. Panasonic already has a pretty cheap one that goes to $7000 - $8000.
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Which camera would that be? The least expensive DVCPROHD camera I know of is the HDX400 and its price tag is about $45,000.


No one will dispute that DVCPRO is much better, but its bandwidth is higher, the systems required are speced up too. I get the sense that the feeling is the prosum or indi video producers here will determine the winner. But, it just show a lack of understand of marketing.
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The systems required are not out of the ordinary, they are FCP and now with Avid's announcement, Express Pro and over firewire.


The Sony f1 is being marketed at the well-heeled techie guy,
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The FX1 is a product aimed at the consumer market place, for the Baby Boomer Generation that want to have the latest tech toy to impress their friends. They have more disposable income and they can afford a $3500 camera.

its a rolex.
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In the consumer market place.
HDV will win because Canon, sony, JVC, etc will start making one chip HDV that will clean panasonics clock.
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Really? The last one chip that JVC put didn't make even a bump in the road. HDV is a consumer format and I am not sure how long lived, the very same manufacturers that you mention are now working on Disc based cameras for the consumer marketplace and yes those are in the same High Def genre.

As far as pronostications about whether something is going to clean Panasonic's clock or not, I think those are very much like the 5 year old, saying my Dad can beat up your Dad stuff and it really equates to nothing.

The reason is a marketing choice, its a format that will wow the average consumer and does not affects profits in there high end stuff.
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There is a huge difference between what the consumer market place wants and what the professional market place needs. You really need to slow down and assess what is what here. When DV started, it seemed to dissolve that differential with the quality that it offered and it did challenge this fine line. But now the lower cost DV cameras no longer address the needs of the professional. A .5 second freeze frame of a drop out will not be a problem for the consumer, its a special effect, ;), but is misery for the professional, especially if it is within the best take of the day.

Panasonic is foolish if they do come out with a lowend model because they will be cannibalizing their lowend ENR biz.
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People thought that the DVX would hurt the VariCam sales, it didn't, they said the SDX900 would hurt the VariCam Sales, it didn't, they said the DVX would hurt the SDX sales, it hasn't. In fact, I can site case after case where a DVX shooter, shot his next project on an SDX. Or the SDX900 owner, sold his SDX and bought a VariCam. The number of times that the DVX has gone out as the B roll on the SDX shoot is equal to the number of times it has been there on a Varicam shoot. Has it slowed down the number of Varicams being sold, SDXs or DVXs? No, has it helped? I think so.

The only thing that matters here is whether you know how the system you are choosing is going to handle what you are wanting to shoot and whether it will do that reliably without failure or without wierd artifacts that you can't see until you are back in the edit suite. And that image is going to wow your client.

Frankly, I would take DVCPROHD, where I have the same resolution on each frame, and each frame is independent of the last, with 4:2:2 color and the audio is uncompressed; yes, this is what I would do any day of the week. It gives me the best I can get, at the compression trade-off I am willing to make, and yes we will have a low cost DVCPROHD solution as a countermeasure to HDV. I can't say any more than that. :-X

Best regards,

Jan
 
Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=Aejaz link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=30#34 date=12/29/04 at 04:26:14]Thanx for the link....but I thought Plasma TVs/LCD TVs were fundamentally different technologies than the HD TV...No?[/quote]
HDTV as a definition is a part of the DTV, Digital-TV. As I know the scandinavian countries has a clear deadline here. Norway and Sweden from 2009 will have only digital broadcasting.

SVT (the National TV in Sweden?) is planning to have its new "play out" center with a 720P/50 core operational by August 2006.

"Speaking more cautiously, because his company supplies hardware to broadcasters in both the interlaced and progressive scanning camps, David Bancroft, manager of advance technologies at France's Thomson, acknowledged, "We will probably see interlaced becoming harder and more expensive to support in the long run. For that reason, we would like to see progressive scanning taking hold."

And here is one of the problems. Hollywood wants 1080i/24. Sony already has sold 15 000 cameras with this standard and they push interlaced HDTV. These invested in this technology supports Sony and wants interleced as well.

NHK (Japan) broadcasts more HD programming to a larger installed based of HD TV sets than any other country, all in the 1080/50 interlaced matrix it has been refining since the first analog HDTV broadcast in 1986. Wada said Japan has little reason to change its technology from interlaced to progressive scanning now, because "de-interlacing technologies" are becoming commonly available that, he claimed, will moot the issue. Many high-end flat displays already come with "very sophisticated signal processing systems," he added.
 
Re: HDV the future?

i think you guys are forgetting one thing, LCD TV's are progessive all the way.. if it recieves interlace material it HAS to deinterlace it, as i was mentioning earlier some LCD TV are dual function as they can work with PC signal (meaning usual PC resolutions, ie better than SDTV).

The line bewteen PC and TV is becoming extremly fine, have you seen the new Sony PCTV ranges (and other the orther brands that are jumping on the PCTV bandwagon, "Pause Live TV" etc..), these are very popular over here in the UK,

@ Barry, yes you are correct about the differenace between PAL and 720P, but what i'm saying is that User's that have seen 720P Vs 1080i on home projectors (HD -PCTV ) say that 720P aint such a big difference in their eyes,
like you have said yourself, thoery is one thing, in practice its another.
 
Re: HDV the future?

[quote author=Jan_Crittenden link=board=sony;num=1104107398;start=30#35 date=12/29/04 at 04:58:47]

Frankly, I would take DVCPROHD, where I have the same resolution on each frame, and each frame is independent of the last, with 4:2:2 color and the audio is uncompressed; yes, this is what I would do any day of the week.  It gives me the best I can get, at the compression trade-off I am willing to make, and yes we will have a low cost DVCPROHD solution as a countermeasure to HDV.  I can't say any more than that. :-X

Best regards,

Jan

[/quote]

Woah momma .... the bomb has been dropped ... watchout now :D
 
Re: HDV the future?

Sony has already sold 15 000 camcorders with 1080i/24.
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where did you get those numbers?

 
200,000 PD150's, at an assumed dealer cost of $3000 (ballpark, who knows?) would put sales at $600 million gross, or maybe $150m per year.  How much of that is profit is completely unknown -- maybe they get to keep $500 per camera?  If so, that'd be a net profit to the division of around $25 million per year.  That's a lot, but for a company that does around $71 billion per year in sales, I don't think it's all that significant a number.  I mean, what does $150 million in annual sales represent out of $71 billion in total sales -- 0.2%?
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$25 million profit that is very high, comparing it again sales is not fair, compare again net profit which was 400 million.


Which camera would that be?  The least expensive DVCPROHD camera I know of is the HDX400 and its price tag is about $45,000.
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Yeah, I made a mistake, I was looking at the DVCPRO camera, but I did corrected later.

Really?  The last one chip that JVC put didn't make even a bump in the road.  HDV is a consumer format and I am not sure how long lived, the very same manufacturers that you mention are now working on Disc based cameras for the consumer marketplace and yes those are in the same High Def genre.
 
As far as pronostications about whether something is going to clean Panasonic's clock or not, I think those are very much like the 5 year old, saying my Dad can beat up your Dad stuff and it really equates to nothing.  
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Its a bad choice of words, But miniDV was conceived as a consumers and sure indy producers or no budget projects. I know people who have finagled camera, software, etc from viacom and others.

Something I've seen, I'm truly an audio/music guy, is productions where they don't budget the camera/DP, but put an ad on craigslist or others boards and get like 30 guys, with equip working for free! We had one guy who was commuting from Phily to NYC for a free. There are a lot of "consumers" wishing or trying to break into the pro market, too bad that they are destroying any opportunity of making a living doing that.
 
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