Future of Panasonic and RED cameras

B

Brian@202020

Veteran
Ok I know the AF100 is in a different class than any of the RED cameras, present or future, with exception of maybe the Scarlet. I just wanted to have a discussion regarding this.

RED company biggest +'s and selling points
Shallow Dof
Very high resolution
Dynamic range
RAW recording
Variable framerates

(Pre AF100) Panasonic company biggest +'s and selling points
Price
Direct to edit or easily transcoded formats
Limited variable framerates
User friendly camera body (access important features without going into a menu)

Now with the AF100 on the horizon it seams Panasonic took a big piece of REDs thunder by making a camera with a shallow DoF. Does that mean RED is done? No it does not, but Panasonic did steal a few customers from RED by doing this. RED shouldn't be worried about the AF100 itself, but where Panasonic will be going next. In my opinion RED will finally be in trouble that it might not be able to recover from WHEN Panasonic comes out with a camera with a shallow DoF AND records to Intra100 or better format. I feel this will for most people be "good enough" and the benefit of RAW will be outweighed by a quality direct to edit or easily transcoded format. A lot of people think the limited variable framerates of the Panasonic's are already "good enough" as compared to the RED's. Will Panasonic ever have a Camera as good, and with all the features as a RED? No they will not, but you can bet your money the WILL come out with a camera that is "good enough" in every way for most people to try to squeeze out most of RED's sales. In my opinion RED needs to release the Scarlet before Panasonic releases this hypothetical camera to stay alive and viable. That way Price is off the table. Thought's?
 
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Then RED has to release the Scarlet this November, because the "hypothetical" AF100 is out a month later. I am sure somewhere in Japan, they are already doing production runs for the knobs and dials for the AF100, whereas the Scarlet is still in development.

Time is running out for what you suggest. Panasonic will release the camera in quantity to dealers by end of December.
 
I am referring to the hypothetical Panasonic camera with shallow DoF capabilities that will record a 10bit high quality direct to edit or easily transcoded format. I bet Panasonic does this sometime in late 2011 or early 2012.
 
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I agree 100%

RED could be in trouble when we finally see an AF200 from Panny or when Canon finally brings out their answer two years from now.

Gotta love technology!
 
Maybe its just me, (lord knows I'm wrong about a lot of things) but personally, I don't see how the 2/3" fixed lens Scarlet is going to be as big a hit as they are thinking. These days the momentum seems to be in interchangeable lens cameras with large sensors. I also don't understand how a company that continues to put out messages that anything less than 4K resolution is simply not good enough, expects those zealots who eat this message up daily to feel good about a 3K camera. To me, the 5K Super 35 Scarlet would be much more logical to release. If I found out that RED's next move was to release that exact camera (the 5K Super 35 one), that would literally stop me dead in my tracks from getting an AF100. But, they've already stated that EPIC is the priority right now, followed by the 2/3" fixed lens Scarlet, then the 2/3" "lensless" Brain, and then the Super 35 Scarlet. Which puts the camera I want being released way way way WAY down the road. And based on their past track record, trust me, that will be a long wait. So I'm going with the AF100 and if by some miracle RED comes through and releases all of these new cameras at once.........well............nevermind.
 
yup. how long did it take from hvx200 to hvx200a etc? i bet af200 comes out before red scarlet does and red scarlet will be DOA. dead duck in the water!
 
Joe Walker said:
Maybe its just me, (lord knows I'm wrong about a lot of things) but personally, I don't see how the 2/3" fixed lens Scarlet is going to be as big a hit as they are thinking. These days the momentum seems to be in interchangeable lens cameras with large sensors. I also don't understand how a company that continues to put out messages that anything less than 4K resolution is simply not good enough, expects those zealots who eat this message up daily to feel good about a 3K camera. To me, the 5K Super 35 Scarlet would be much more logical to release. If I found out that RED's next move was to release that exact camera (the 5K Super 35 one), that would literally stop me dead in my tracks from getting an AF100. But, they've already stated that EPIC is the priority right now, followed by the 2/3" fixed lens Scarlet, then the 2/3" "lensless" Brain, and then the Super 35 Scarlet. Which puts the camera I want being released way way way WAY down the road. And based on their past track record, trust me, that will be a long wait. So I'm going with the AF100 and if by some miracle RED comes through and releases all of these new cameras at once.........well............nevermind.
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exactly! no one wants the crappy 2/3 fixed lens scarlet anyway are you kidding me. what a dead duck! the s35 scarlet is years away from release. panasonic will be on af300 by then
 
I predict the 2/3 scarlet going away to vaporware city, never to see the light of day.

The DSLRs and now the AF-100 have made people want large sensors for video acquisition.
 
Joe Walker said:
To me, the 5K Super 35 Scarlet would be much more logical to release.
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Agreed. I should have been more clear. This is the Scarlet model I was referring to that needs to come out before the Hypothetical Panasonic camera.

Joe Walker said:
I also don't understand how a company that continues to put out messages that anything less than 4K resolution is simply not good enough
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I agree to a point. For 99% of the people out there 1080 is "good enough", and the fact that 1080 doesn't necessarily need to be downresed, which saves time in the edit, helps sell Panasonic. Coming from an editing background I do see the benefit of being able to reframe and zoom in on shots sometimes tho..
 
This is my prediction * on probably whats gonna happen, since they NOW realized that Soccer mom is really not into buying a $5k red rocket, pulling highlights from the bright parts and details from the shadows and Color Correct with Red Cine.

a) Epic is going to be over $30,000
b) Red One $ 25,000
c) Scarlet S35 $ 17,500

Remember you want the RED coz u want to be PRO ? So Hope you have a PRO sized bank account too.

* user opinion is completely based out of no statistical evidence nor concrete evidence.
 
To me, the answer to this question is rather simple and straightforward.

There are those who want a camera that is exceptional because of what it does. This is, by design, what RED strives to be. One can list specs and features all day, but the bottom line is that what RED is building promises to be a spectacularly capable camera.

And there are those who want a camera that is exceptional because of what it does for the price. This is, in essence, what happens when a camera that costs $5000 produces an image which, to many viewers, is about 85% as good as that from a camera that costs $50000. That's 10% of the cost for 85% of the return.

Will many people find "85-95% as good" to be "good enough"? I'm sure they will. And those people will vote with their wallet for the camera which costs 10%-20% of the other camera.

But there will also be people - perhaps not as many, but still numerous - who decide that they do, in fact, want that extra 15-5% percent. Especially when the difference between the cameras isn't $45000, but is closer to $4500.
 
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mcgeedigital said:
I predict the 2/3 scarlet going away to vaporware city, never to see the light of day.

The DSLRs and now the AF-100 have made people want large sensors for video acquisition.
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I have to strongly disagree. First, there are many people who understand that perfectly reasonable shallow depth of field and perfectly reasonable wide angles can be achieved using 2/3" sensors with proper lenses. Unless one needs less than 6" of DOF, there is no real advantage in terms of possibility to a larger sensor. Second, there are many people who find the cost of an entire 2/3" Scarlet setup to be rather inconsequential - the $7,000 is just a drop in the bucket to them. They will be purchasing multiple 2/3" Scarlets to act as B cameras or special unit cameras.

I think it is often forgotten that some of REDs customers have budgets that range not in the thousands or tens of thousands, but in the hundreds of thousands or millions to properly equip themselves, their rental houses, or their studio. These people have no problem spending almost nothing to buy three 2/3" fixed lens Scarlets.
 
Michael Olsen said:
I have to strongly disagree. First, there are many people who understand that perfectly reasonable shallow depth of field and perfectly reasonable wide angles can be achieved using 2/3" sensors with proper lenses. Unless one needs less than 6" of DOF, there is no real advantage in terms of possibility to a larger sensor. Second, there are many people who find the cost of an entire 2/3" Scarlet setup to be rather inconsequential - the $7,000 is just a drop in the bucket to them. They will be purchasing multiple 2/3" Scarlets to act as B cameras or special unit cameras.
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Michael I hear what you are saying, and you are right there is a place for the 2/3 Scarlets out there, but the Super35 model now needs to be released first, or at the same time as the 2/3 models for RED to stay viable.
 
Personally, I would love to see the S35 Scarlet hit shelves (so to speak) about a month or two after EPIC starts shipping to customers. That's how I would have done it and I really don't understand why RED isn't doing the same thing, unless they are trying to source all the chips for EPIC-X first - they do sort of "owe" their current customers - before they worry about new orders for S35. Remember - EPIC and Scarlet S35 use exactly the same M-X chip, so if they aren't getting a massive quantity in, it could lead to some loooong backorders for one set of customers or the other.

And I guess, I'm also not really sure what to think about this conversation. We are comparing an announced, regularly relayed, but undelivered product against an unannounced entirely spectral product from another company...good pub talk, but it's not of much practical use.
 
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Michael Olsen said:
Personally, I would love to see the S35 Scarlet hit shelves (so to speak) about a month or two after EPIC starts shipping to customers. That's how I would have done it and I really don't understand why RED isn't doing the same thing, unless they are trying to source all the chips for EPIC-X first - they do sort of "owe" their current customers - before they worry about new orders for S35. Remember - EPIC and Scarlet S35 use exactly the same M-X chip, so if they aren't getting a massive quantity in, it could lead to some loooong backorders for one set of customers or the other.
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I think the mass quantity of M-X chips need is probably the problem. With the EPIC they get more money per chip. Also If they release the Scarlet to close to the EPIC they will be competing with themselves and the Scarlet release could take away from EPIC sales. I think Panasonic is trying to force RED to compete with itself and is banking on RED self destructing.
 
LuckyStudio 13 said:
This is my prediction * on probably whats gonna happen, since they NOW realized that Soccer mom is really not into buying a $5k red rocket, pulling highlights from the bright parts and details from the shadows and Color Correct with Red Cine.

a) Epic is going to be over $30,000
b) Red One $ 25,000
c) Scarlet S35 $ 17,500

Remember you want the RED coz u want to be PRO ? So Hope you have a PRO sized bank account too.

* user opinion is completely based out of no statistical evidence nor concrete evidence.
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I like this guy.
 
I know every, and I mean every, trick in the book to try to make 2/3" match the DOF characteristics of 35MM film, and it cannot be done. Yes, you can make pretty pictures with 2/3", but you have to do so much more work to achieve FG isolation than is available natively with the larger sensor. You're moving the subject, muting the pallet of the BG and lowering the level, dropping single nets behind the subject, etc. Of course you're always shooting wide open and maybe tighter than you might prefer, but it's never going to be the same; in the end 2.5x more DOF is a lot.

Furthermore, there are circumstances where you simply cannot get the shallow DOF you wish; you can't move the subject twelve feet from the wall because the room's too small or you can't change a distinctive BG.

This does not mean there are not situations and kinds of shooting where a 2.5x greater DOF is an asset; news, sports, nature, Steadicam, some crane/jib work, underwater, etc., but for general dramatic presentations, a 35MM film sized sensor is ideal.

Frankly, I think releasing the 2/3" Scarlet before the S35 Scarlet is not a very good idea; why release a more specialized product before the more general product? I don't get it, nor will I ever buy a fixed lens camera for general use.

Good shooting and best regards,

Leo
 
Brian@202020 said:
I think Panasonic is trying to force RED to compete with itself and is banking on RED self destructing.
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Hmm. Perhaps. But the thing is, I don't really think Panasonic and RED are really competing. Sony and RED, yes, but that's because of the F35. Panasonic (at least to my knowledge) has no plans to produce a high end digital cinema camera that costs more than about $10,000. I think we were told a hypothetical "AF-200" with 10-bit 4:2:2 to onboard P2 would run about $9,000. And they would need to match or better "feel", codec, dynamic range, and resolution. That's a tall order for $9000, even competing against a 2/3" camera. Easier shallow depth of field can only get you so far for some folks.


Personally, I'd love it if Panasonic would decide to go in against RED and offer something similar to the S35 Scarlet at a similar price point: $15-20K. Right now, RED is the only player in the marketplace that I can think of. And it seems as though they are doing enough to ward people from trying to compete too readily.
 
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