FCPX going subscription

[filmguy123]

Thomas makes a good point about the software selling hardware.

OS X. As far as Windows, so many people with extreme opinions seem to have left with Windows Vista (I did), or maybe as late as Windows 8. Modern Windows 10 is not only completely fine, it's very (very) good. I still use both daily. I'd give Big Sur an edge for consumer facing software... as a pro, it's largely "equal but different" these days IMO.

Full circle point... I agree with Thomas, I think it's important that Apple maintains software/services draw to it's hardware platform. I wonder if such a potential subscription model would be offered as a choice (i.e. $10/month with free ongoing features updates, or purchase a license as is for $500 with patches only and an incremental paid update option every couple years to "catch up").

 

[puredrifting]

Other reason I don't think this will happen or is a bad move is Apple kind of has the pro apps to help sell computers. Moving to a subscription model not only hurts FCPX sales but could also potentially hurt Mac computer sales as well.

Sure there are a lot of designers and publishers out there using Adobe software on Macs but if FCPX goes subscription based it will be like the initial launch of FCPX all over again. Bad move. Very bad indeed.

Definitely wouldn't be the first time Apple makes a monumentally stupid strategic move. Part of being a long time Apple user is looking back on all of the times
the mothership made huge decisions that frustrated the Hell out of us for their complete ineptitude. That's the thing, I like Apple products and the OS, but only slightly more
than I hate Microsoft and Windoze.

Both choices are frustrating as Hell, both companies make us tear our hair out at times. I'm definitely not an Apple fan boy. I know Jobs was a
tyrannical A hole who was very good at bullying incredible results out of greatly talented people. But Steve was a jerk. Apple definitely has that
walled garden/totalitarian state thing going that I despise. But I've always also despised Gates and Microsoft, just for different reasons. I agree Windoze 10 is better
than Windoze used to be. Like how Typhoid is better than Cholera ;-)

 

[DLD]

Based on my semi-awake perusal of the various computer industry publications, it seems that everyone agrees that a long term battle will be between three different ARM based OS - Apple of all types, M-soft for ARM and Goggle Fuchsia, with Huawei Harmony taking over the Chinese market - and the remnant of the x86 Windows that is backed by AMD and Intel.

Likewise, there are several ARM licensed manufacturers - Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm, Samsung, NVIDIA, Microsoft, TSMC, etc. - that will either make own chips for a complete integration with own OS or enter into major alliances in the "hardware & software" contracts. There's a lot of speculation going on by the various industry insiders but, once again, most agree that this is very early in the game.

PS. It's not just about mobile phones, laptops, workstations and servers. It's about all the other things too.

 

[filmguy123]

Based on my semi-awake perusal of the various computer industry publications, it seems that everyone agrees that a long term battle will be between three different ARM based OS - Apple of all types, M-soft for ARM and Goggle Fuchsia, with Huawei Harmony taking over the Chinese market - and the remnant of the x86 Windows that is backed by AMD and Intel.

There's already an ARM version of Windows, and Microsoft is currently rumored to be developing its own ARM processor. NVIDIA, a big player in PC market, purchased ARM. I don't think Windows OS is going anywhere, although X86 may be on a decade long phase out... but we'll see. AMD's Zen 4 on the 5nm process scheduled for 2022 are rumored to be up to 40% faster than their just released Zen 3 smash hit. That sort of leap on x86 has been unprecedented for quite some time, and Intel will likely be striking back hard when it gets it things in order.

If last decade was a bit boring in the CPU space, this decade should be a call back to past times with rapid speed jumps.

(On a side note I have been completely blown away by the speed improvement on my AMD 5950x in Premiere editing vs my previous 2012 build. It rips through long 4K HEVC h.265 edits even with slow motion, multiple color filters, noise reduction, flicker free, etc. Can't believe rumors are saying there will be another 40% performance jump in just 18 months or so, and that's not even factoring in what may be coming with ARM processors and GPU advances).

 

[JAMedia]

I've been on FCP since it was beta in 1999. I co-founded the Los Angeles Final Cut Pro User Group with Michael Horton. I can unequivocally say that if Apple does
something this stupid, I will uninstall FCP X from all of my computers and will 100% convert to Resolve. I am at about 70% FCP X and about 30% on Resolve now,
if Apple does this, bye bye FCP X. This would be a shame as I really love editing with it. I don't love everything about FCP X, but its positives massively outweigh its
deficiencies.

I was in the same position. I started with FCPX not long after it came out and found it intuitive and easy to use. If FCPX was available on the PC I would still be using it today. It's not perfect but... As it is I am now using Resolve Studio which I am learning to dislike less. My problem was I did not like the direction of travel from Apple on their hardware Then Adobe went subscription. As it is I have older Apple hardware and I can't run a newer OSX with the stand-alone CS6, Lightroom etc. as they become unstable. Therefore I am not on the latest FCPX. This is a bit problem with Apple when they release a new version of OSX a lot of updates apps only run on the new OSX. So I had to look at buying buy new hardware.

We decided ot go for PC's rather than Mac. I didn't want the Trash Can Mac. As for the new Mac Pro I can build a PC with double the performance for half the price...... My background is in electronics and embedded software and as i mentioned I didn't like the direction of travel of Apple on their hardware. Despite the changing of the CPU, if anything that has increased my opinion. Apple are going for as many custom parts as possible, right down to things like IC's in the power circuits where they could, and previously have, used standard parts. This is starting to mean that there will be no 3rd party Apple repair shops. Indeed Apple are actively discouraging 3rd party repairs.

Whilst I am now using Dell PC's I can swap to any other PC including home made/custom build and stil keep all my PC software. IF I want FCPX it has to be Apple and I am at the mercy of their whims. Also I don't mind paying for upgrades but I don't want a subscription. So I am now on PC and not using FCPX as my main editor though it hasn't been a pain free change.

As noted FCPX is an insignificant revenue stream for Apple and hell will have frozen over long before they even contemplate a PC version.

 

[Batutta]

It's a good thing I still cut in FCP 7. :happy:

 

[JAMedia]

It's a good thing I still cut in FCP 7. :happy:

This reminded me of a discussion a few years ago when some one made a comment that you "needed" a particular feature if you were in any way serious about what you were doing. The response was that as the thing had only been released a month or two previously *every* video anywhere in the world (other than a few demo clips) had been made without this "essential" feature. So should every film/video since the start of film be consigned to the bin?

In the same way when a new Nikon camera came out and I was contemplating selling the children to get it a friend asked "has your current camera stopped working? Has it's performance degraded? No! So why do you need this new one? " A point well made (but I still have two semi-house-trained children up for sale.... anyone? PLEASE!!!).

For many (most?) people do we need all the features in these NLEs? It will depend on the work you do and what you need. For a lot of work I do there are never more than two audio channels. I have BMD Resolve Studio and when I look at the fairlight (audio) page that can handle a full orchestra (or Pink Floyd on tour) It's way more than I need. They same with some of the other features. I can understand keeping up with codecs and tweaking features but where do you stop? At the moment I have on a laptop for £300 an NLE that will let me (skill permitting) produce the next Star Wars/Trek blockbuster. I suspect I can even load a Klingon and Romulan font for sub titles. What more do I need?

I could probably do all I need in FCP7

The only problem Batutta will have is when he needs to load FCP7 to Windows 14 or MacOS14 or the new standard Uniform OS (running on the DS9000 Processor) and it won't load or run.
Do we really need more and more features or just new codecs and tweaks?

 

[Matt Gottshalk]

Other reason I don't think this will happen or is a bad move is Apple kind of has the pro apps to help sell computers. Moving to a subscription model not only hurts FCPX sales but could also potentially hurt Mac computer sales as well.

Sure there are a lot of designers and publishers out there using Adobe software on Macs but if FCPX goes subscription based it will be like the initial launch of FCPX all over again. Bad move. Very bad indeed.

Much like Dan alluded to earlier, Iphone/Ipad sales make up most of their revenue, so I doubt that they care.

 

[Samuel Dilworth]

Much like Dan alluded to earlier, Iphone/Ipad sales make up most of their revenue, so I doubt that they care.

So why would they break something that works and brings in some cash with low effort? Presumably practically no-one is actively asking for a subscription option for a $300 software package. At least no-one who can count to ten without using their fingers.

I know many Adobe subscribers can’t count (hence the success of that racket for Adobe), but that leaves the people who can count using other software … like Final Cut Pro X. Every time another software maker goes subscription, they’re fighting for a smaller and smaller pool of innumerate customers. At some point, only people who can count are left. Then what?

 

[jb.]

There are a ton of possibilities here. I'm not sure I'd jump straight from "Apple modifies their trademark to cover subscriptions" straight to "OMG FINAL CUT IS GOING THE WAY OF CREATIVE CLOUD."

Maybe they're looking to offer a subscription bundle of all the products to students so they can rent the software for the four months they're using it for class? I teach at a university and I can tell you we've been asking for something like this for some time. My students don't need to pay $200 for a bundle of all the Apple Pro Apps when they could rent them for $10/mo or something for just as long as they need them to complete the class.

There's very very little information in this "rumor"... not even enough to speculate with any intelligence.

 

[JAMedia]

So why would they break something that works and brings in some cash with low effort? Presumably practically no-one is actively asking for a subscription option for a $300 software package. At least no-one who can count to ten without using their fingers.

I know many Adobe subscribers can’t count (hence the success of that racket for Adobe), but that leaves the people who can count using other software … like Final Cut Pro X. Every time another software maker goes subscription, they’re fighting for a smaller and smaller pool of innumerate customers. At some point, only people who can count are left. Then what?

From my non scientific poll of mac users most under 50 seem to accept the subscription model. Indeed many of the younger users have no idea some of their software wasn't subscription in the past. They are used to subscription services as a normal way of life.

 

[jb.]

So why would they break something that works and brings in some cash with low effort? Presumably practically no-one is actively asking for a subscription option for a $300 software package. At least no-one who can count to ten without using their fingers.

I know many Adobe subscribers can’t count (hence the success of that racket for Adobe), but that leaves the people who can count using other software … like Final Cut Pro X. Every time another software maker goes subscription, they’re fighting for a smaller and smaller pool of innumerate customers. At some point, only people who can count are left. Then what?

Oh come on. I'm an Adobe Creative Cloud subscriber. I can most certainly count. The subscription has worked out FAR FAR cheaper for me over the time I've had it than buying perpetual upgrade licenses for Master Collection did before that.

Stop being insulting just because you can't understand situations outside of your own.

 

[Clermond]

Oh come on. I'm an Adobe Creative Cloud subscriber. I can most certainly count. The subscription has worked out FAR FAR cheaper for me over the time I've had it than buying perpetual upgrade licenses for Master Collection did before that.

Stop being insulting just because you can't understand situations outside of your own.

your subscription worked far far cheaper than what? We were talking about FCP. I came to FCPX after Adobe introduced the subscrition model in 2012. I probably saved the cost of an iMac in that time when I compare the one time payment of FCPX and motion to the monthly payment of 50€ in 9yrs.

Adobe is the best example that a subscription model isn't a guarantee for creative developments and stability.

 

[puredrifting]

It's a good thing I still cut in FCP 7. :happy:

Ahh, one of those people!

 

[puredrifting]

Adobe is the best example that a subscription model isn't a guarantee for creative developments and stability.

It's apparent that since Adobe went to the subscription model, one could observe that the reliability of Premiere has actually decreased significantly, for many generations
of bloat...er..software updates. Mostly amateurs seem to switch from Adobe because of the actual subscription charge. $50 or $60.00 per month is insignificant for
production companies or FT Pro editors for their main tool, it's something else that has caused so many to dump Premiere the past few years.

Most of the FT Pro editors I know who have switched, they tell me that it was because Premiere Pro is still built on ancient base code with many strata of new bloatware hung on it's ancient frame,
much like FCP Studio was at the end when Apple would have needed a massive overhaul of the base code to make an FCP 8, and it is crash prone. It may have changed because I
ignore Adobe now, I get invitations from them and their PR/Marketing company weekly but I saw an article a year or two ago that it would cost Adobe many, many millions of dollars to overhaul
and re-write the base code for Premiere and they didn't want to put in the money and man hours to do so. Not sure if they've done that now or if it still crashes a lot because they haven't?

 

[jb.]

your subscription worked far far cheaper than what? We were talking about FCP. I came to FCPX after Adobe introduced the subscrition model in 2012. I probably saved the cost of an iMac in that time when I compare the one time payment of FCPX and motion to the monthly payment of 50€ in 9yrs.

Adobe is the best example that a subscription model isn't a guarantee for creative developments and stability.

Maybe read the post I was responding to where he says that Adobe CC subscribers "can't count."

Part of my world requires that I stay up to date on a good chunk of the Adobe product line. That means that prior to CC, I was buying an upgrade of Adobe CS Master Collection every time it came out... generally every year and a half if I remember right. My initial license cost for the Master Collection was $2500. Every upgrade was (I believe) $999. So in three years, I'd pay $4500 for perpetual licenses.

I've never paid more than $29.99/mo. for CC. There is always a deal going on that drops the price. The last few years, I've been buying 12-month cards when they go on sale (usually Black Friday or around NAB) for about $250. So, over the past three years... I've paid $750 for CC.

$4500 is a lot more than $750.

Even if I paid full boat for CC... that's $600/yr... or $1800 for three years. That's still less than half of the cost to keep a perpetual license current.

You would have to use a version for five years before the perpetual license became cheaper. Chances are pretty good by that time the older version you're using is not going to work with newer formats and codecs... or the latest operating systems or platforms.

I totally get it. I'd prefer Adobe had an "exit ramp" for CC. Something I could pay to retain access to my last-paid-for version and just stop getting updates. But it's simply not true that those of us who have a CC subscription are somehow too stupid to not get taken by big bad Adobe.

Adobe is also in a different place business-wise than Apple and Blackmagic when it comes to their software. Adobe makes ALL of their money on their software. Apple and Blackmagic use their software to sell computers and cameras respectively. If Apple or BM had to make FCP or Resolve profitable on their own, I guarantee you neither would cost $299 one-time for many many years.

I'm not an Adobe apologist... and I don't love Premiere... but I do feel like a lot of people don't realize that Adobe's CC subscription works out for more people/businesses than it doesn't. If it didn't, their market share would have taken a complete crap... and it really hasn't.

None of this is to say I wouldn't prefer a way to stop paying for the subscription and keep access to my files.

 

[Clermond]

Maybe read the post I was responding to where he says that Adobe CC subscribers "can't count."

sorry but I stopped reading at the point where you compared Adobe to Adobe...

have fun in downvoting if it helps your peace of mind

 

[jb.]

It's apparent that since Adobe went to the subscription model, one could observe that the reliability of Premiere has actually decreased significantly, for many generations
of bloat...er..software updates. Mostly amateurs seem to switch from Adobe because of the actual subscription charge. $50 or $60.00 per month is insignificant for
production companies or FT Pro editors for their main tool, it's something else that has caused so many to dump Premiere the past few years.

Most of the FT Pro editors I know who have switched, they tell me that it was because Premiere Pro is still built on ancient base code with many strata of new bloatware hung on it's ancient frame,
much like FCP Studio was at the end when Apple would have needed a massive overhaul of the base code to make an FCP 8, and it is crash prone. It may have changed because I
ignore Adobe now, I get invitations from them and their PR/Marketing company weekly but I saw an article a year or two ago that it would cost Adobe many, many millions of dollars to overhaul
and re-write the base code for Premiere and they didn't want to put in the money and man hours to do so. Not sure if they've done that now or if it still crashes a lot because they haven't?

I have to cut a television episode on Premiere this spring, so I've been spending more time with it than I have in a long time... and I will say that Premiere is FAR FAR FAR more stable and performant on a Windows box with an Nvidia GPU than it is on a Mac of similar spec. I built out a 12-core Ryzen 3900X box with 64GB of RAM and a GeForce RTX 3080 around Christmas to experiment with the dark side... and Premiere is like a completely different app on that vs. my iMac Pro (10-core, 64GB, VEGA 64). I've noticed that Lightroom and Illustrator are both in the same boat. I haven't noticed the same difference in Photoshop.

I think Adobe's kinda just phoning it in on the Mac and has been for a while.

 

[jb.]

sorry but I stopped reading at the point where you compared Adobe to Adobe...

have fun in downvoting if it helps your peace of mind

Why even reply if you didn't read the post to get the context? I wasn't talking to you, I was responding specifically to someone who insulted anyone who pays for a CC subscription... which is rude.

Context is important.

 

[Peter C.]

Like someone pointed out Apple hardware is maddening. Up until the M1 they have been priced, despite using older components. Unlike the iPhone which gets a refresh every year using the best tech that works flawlessly, you have to wait years and they make it as painful as they possible can to dissuade you from even upgrading the ram or hard drive. 11 years later I'm still waiting for MacPro desktop. I finally gave up and went with the mini.

Adobe subscription sucks. In certain situations, you can get by if you don't need the whole suite. Companies can afford it but as an individual developer you feel like your getting squeezed from all angles. The cost of all the filming gear, computer and internet, hosting, software subscriptions...