Coronavirus Impact

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Run&Gun said:
Saw this earlier today.

https://medium.com/@Jason_Scott_Warner/the-sober-math-everyone-must-understand-about-the-pandemic-2b0145881993
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Interesting article - it doesn't mention that the outbreak will spread again once the lockdown is over. But other than that I agree with it.

The goal of the lockdown is to help out our hospital system which is about to get creamed AND delay the bulk of potential infections until we have proven treatments available. If we have a workable antiviral treatment, it changes the whole game.

OR at least a lockdown could reset our situation and enable us to control the virus through testing, contact tracing and quarantining the clusters we identify.

As far as contagiousness is concerned - the upper estimate I saw for coronavirus is R3 (3 people infected by each infected person), which is still higher than influenza even if the flu is R2. And if the conragiousness mutates via evolution, it would likely only become more contagious because contagiousness is a growth advantage (like having more children).

My hope is on antiviral treatments. Everyone around the world is testing various therapies.
 
Well, the new rules on staying at home have had some impact based on my observation today. I drove to the theatre this morning, went in - collected my personal tools and precious kit, loaded the van, and didn't see anyone. 12 noon the entire thing closes up for the next few months, but sadly, there's a good chance it won't open again - ever. The poor old place has a big hole in the roof, birds and water are coming in, and not staff to fix it. whatever gets wrecked stays wrecked. Very sad, but I just can't see it being recoverable if the closure is more than 8-10 weeks. I'll manage, but very sad for the proper employees. I'm just a contractor who spends the summer there each year, others have worked there all their lives.
 
paulears said:
Well, the new rules on staying at home have had some impact based on my observation today. I drove to the theatre this morning, went in - collected my personal tools and precious kit, loaded the van, and didn't see anyone. 12 noon the entire thing closes up for the next few months, but sadly, there's a good chance it won't open again - ever. The poor old place has a big hole in the roof, birds and water are coming in, and not staff to fix it. whatever gets wrecked stays wrecked. Very sad, but I just can't see it being recoverable if the closure is more than 8-10 weeks. I'll manage, but very sad for the proper employees. I'm just a contractor who spends the summer there each year, others have worked there all their lives.
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That's a sad tale. Have you received Boris' email?

Chris Young.
s300_Text-message-2.jpg
 
One magnificent resource we have is our parks and beaches. People were unable to control themselves, not following the separation requirements so the county shut them down. These idiots, full of what; ignorance, hubris, stupidity, selfishness, have caused to shut down an important resource for people to keep their sanity during the lockdown. Now everyone is stuck in their apartments/houses.

How is it possible not to keep separation on endless beaches like this - https://www.californiabeaches.com/beach/limantour-beach/
 
I too saw the beach close down and I don't blame Newsom a bit for doing it. Californians, like the stupid Spring Breakers in Florida, were being idiots,
crowding the beaches and trails and not observing the distancing rules. So many dumb, inconsiderate, selfish idiots in this state, it's maddening.

Wow, it's barely been two weeks of lockdown, people are going to go berserk if it lasts two or three months. Imagine if this generation were in place
instead of the greatest generation during the War. We would be living a Man In The High Castle reality right now if they would have had to pull together for the war, without a doubt.
People weren't so selfish and stupid back then it seems, WTH happened?
 
Paul F said:
One magnificent resource we have is our parks and beaches. People were unable to control themselves, not following the separation requirements so the county shut them down. These idiots, full of what; ignorance, hubris, stupidity, selfishness, have caused to shut down an important resource for people to keep their sanity during the lockdown. Now everyone is stuck in their apartments/houses.

How is it possible not to keep separation on endless beaches like this - https://www.californiabeaches.com/beach/limantour-beach/
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I think it’s the same mentality that a little kid has after you tell them not to touch something, they’re going to go and touch it, then. I think most people are defiant to a degree, by nature, but some are way more than others. The ironic thing is that if this wasn’t going on, people would probably be out there and actually not clustering around each other.
 
puredrifting said:
I too saw the beach close down and I don't blame Newsom a bit for doing it. Californians, like the stupid Spring Breakers in Florida, were being idiots,
crowding the beaches and trails and not observing the distancing rules. So many dumb, inconsiderate, selfish idiots in this state, it's maddening.

Wow, it's barely been two weeks of lockdown, people are going to go berserk if it lasts two or three months. Imagine if this generation were in place
instead of the greatest generation during the War. We would be living a Man In The High Castle reality right now if they would have had to pull together for the war, without a doubt.
People weren't so selfish and stupid back then it seems, WTH happened?
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Part of it is technology. We don’t “need” each other like we used to and the millennials and generation behind them have been taught that they are singularly special. Everything was handed to them. And the really bad thing, it’s my generation(X) that has largely raised them. One of my best friends, his son is pretty soft, in my opinion. HS senior, but doesn’t drive. He does have a job, but spends most of his free time playing video games or on the computer and not an outstanding student. I said something to my friend one day about his sons generation and he replied that “we” were latch key kids and as a parent you want your kids to have it better than you did. I wanted to say to him that he grew-up middle-class in a good neighborhood and went to one of the best universities in the country. Yeah, he worked for what he got, but he made it sound like he was a poor inner-city kid with nothing. And he’s the exact opposite of this “me” mentality, but I guess to be a parent you have to be a hypocrite on multiple levels.
 
Run&Gun said:
I think it’s the same mentality that a little kid has after you tell them not to touch something, they’re going to go and touch it, then. I think most people are defiant to a degree, by nature, but some are way more than others. The ironic thing is that if this wasn’t going on, people would probably be out there and actually not clustering around each other.
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Yeah but we're supposed to be grown-ups...bodes ill
 
Good grief, another friend of mine just got hospitalized in NYC with COVID-19. Young, healthy guy. Here's what he posted on Facebook half an hour ago:

On Monday last week I developed a cough. On Tuesday the fevers began. I followed orders and stayed away from emergency rooms. It got worse. I’ve never felt more sick. I was tested for Covid 19 on Sunday. Today my results came back positive. I’m now in Beth Israel in the most excruciating pain. I’m troubled if I’ve exposed others... I have no idea what this recovery and treatment is going to be like. Can I just say to all my FB friends, be careful. Stay healthy. Hold those you love close.
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This is a really good (and frightening article): https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Takeaway: the stricter our social distancing measures are now, the sooner we can relax them. It's way too soon to go back to normal. If we don't curb the epidemic in the US, millions will die because we won't have the resources to treat them (as well as heart-attack sufferers, etc). 5% of covid patients require ICU. If we buy ourselves time, we may find treatments within months, but hundreds of thousands will have died already in the US if we don't slow the spread.
 
Sadly, a lot of the rest of the world seems to be behind us even and we are so behind the countries that did the right things like South Korea.
I talked to a friend in Australia a few days ago who has a band that does big gigs. They were still playing concerts with hundreds of
people crowded into a ballroom three days ago. Their schools are still open, crowded with kids. I begged him to self isolate. Now.

Even if this takes until May, and we all go broke, I would rather keep quarantining until May to give us a fighting chance at reducing deaths and exposure.
 
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