Coronavirus Impact III

Thanks for sharing this, and I appreciate the balanced take from Axios.

In Oregon, the numbers mirror this, except it's a decrease of over 10%. Also worth noting, more than just a year over year decline - both US and Oregon numbers are a record low in the last ~5 years if you look at the numbers from 2015-2020.
 
Got the Pfizer shot two days ago. The two TIA's I had last year put my in an early, high risk group in Canada so I was able to get it. Other then some arm soreness and light grogginess the night of I feel fine.
 
Batutta said:
Got the Pfizer shot two days ago. The two TIA's I had last year put my in an early, high risk group in Canada so I was able to get it. Other then some arm soreness and light grogginess the night of I feel fine.
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That’s good. Last week they opened up vaccinations to everyone here. But NC also pulled the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Thursday, because of numerous adverse reactions that have occurred(not sure if it also has anything to the contaminated batch).
 
Run&Gun said:
That’s good. Last week they opened up vaccinations to everyone here. But NC also pulled the Johnson & Johnson vaccine on Thursday, because of numerous adverse reactions that have occurred(not sure if it also has anything to the contaminated batch).
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Johnson and Johnson uses the same technique as the AstraZeneca vaccine, and both are having that clotting issue in a very small number of people which is interesting. They use an adenovirus like the common cold to create the covid spike proteins that your immune system reacts to and builds an immune response. Pfizer and Moderna use your bodies own cells to create those spike proteins and both seem to have less side effects. The Pfizer uses a three times smaller dose than the Moderna so it seems to be the most well tolerated. I'm guessing the clot issues has not much to do with the vaccine and is a genetic issue causing some people to react. Once they figure that out they'll be able to screen for who should get it and who shouldn't, or if there's a way to modify the vaccine to stop the reaction.
 
Thanks for sharing experiences, it’s nice to hear from people here. I am scheduled later this month for my first dose of the Pfizer vaccine.

I think the biggest thing we all need to be aware of is the real concern in the medical community for gain of function mutation, that is, the plausible scenario of the virus mutating stronger to gain function rather than weaker. Because we are rolling out vaccines in such a unique way in the midst of a pandemic (rather than giving people some people a vaccine prior to traveling somewhere and being exposed for example) there is ample opportunity for the virus to interact with unvaccinated people, partially vaccinated people, and fully vaccinated people. And this interaction has potential to train the virus to get stronger.

Hopefully that doesn’t happen.

But, every time there is a breakthrough case where the virus overcomes vaccine, or when a partially vaccinated person who is only 50% effective starts going out and about early, the risk is run of a virus encounter that breaks through the immune system and retransmits a more highly adapted variant.

In such a case, the virus usually gets sneakier and looks more like our natural cells, and then we have to vaccinate against that - and we potentially run up against the risk of creating auto immune conditions with too much vaccination or with diseases that start to be so sneaky they look very similar to us.

Anyway, I’m very much looking forward to seeing family and friends who are also vaccinated, some local AirBNB vacations and road trips, summer hikes and bike rides, snowboarding this winter, and taking some more film work. But I don’t suspect I’ll be doing indoor dining or movie theaters or big group events, and I plan to mask up and keep social distance and prioritize outdoor meetings for the coming months with those not vaccinated until things are under more control. I’m hoping we don’t end up seeing a situation where the mass vaccination efforts mixed with populance behavior produce a virus that permanently makes things harder for all of us.

Main take away point just being, it’s in all of our best interest to, as possible, lay low until your vaccine gets up to speed to guard from playing a small part in GOF mutations, and to keep up good habits for a bit longer until we’re able to get ahead of things. We’ve got all the tools to make that as easy as possible right now - vaccines, good weather, etc. - so hopefully H2 2021 looks close to best case scenario.
 
The good news is that so far the vaccines have proven largely effective against thevarious mutations. And with the new way of producing vaccine, the science is claiming that should boosters be needed every year or two to combat new strains, these new shots will be quick to design and rollout.
 
Good news so far indeed. The concern is moreso in the longer term (3-5 years) and is hopefully an unrealized scenario.

One thing we have seen that is unexpected with the mutations is that each mutation has appeared to undergo a gain of function mutation as opposed to what we would have expected/hope for, which would have been a loss of function mutation. AKA rather than the mutation being more contagious but less deadly, we are seeing increased contagiousness AND increased mortality associated with the variants.

The current vaccines are largely effective against them still, with only a small reduction, but with each mutation the vaccines will get a bit less effective. Fine, but the concern is that right now, meanwhile, the virus gets more contagious AND more harmful rather than more contagious BUT more meaningless (docile). The concern from some is that we have a global scenario in which the current world environment is optimal to replicate gain of function mutations (GOF) instead of loss of function mutations (LOF). This is because the GOF scenario occurs best when, at a very large scale, you create a "push-pull" type of environment, where a virus can still spread rapidly with ease due to low immune defense from unvaccinated people or those without effective antibodies (the "pull"), but also runs into higher than expected immune resistance (push), but not strong enough to totally stop it (such as a partially vaccinated, or weakly vaccinated, person), causing the virus to rethink its game and get a bit more devious.

Part of the vaccine rollout race isn't just to get the economy back in order ASAP (though that is a huge part), or to guard against more deaths and lessen the burden on healthcare (also a huge part), but it's a race against time to minimize the number of variants that can foster in this GOF environment. Essentially if we move too slow we foster GOF; if we move fast, we flip the tables on the virus and create an LOF environment in which overtime COVID becomes "just like the flu" that we all hoped it was when this started.

We aren't there yet, and there is a lot of optimism that we're going to be A-OK and that this will work, but there is also stress that if we end up remaining perpetually behind a virus that is mutating on a gain of function trajectory for TOO long, we will be in trouble in 3-5 years. Compare this to a virus which we get ahead of now and minimize/remove the push/pull environment and flip the cards to where the virus operates on a LOF mutation trajectory (loss of function), then we will be good.

It should be noted that this is 100% conjecture in the medical community as we've literally never run this experiment on a global scale. But it's plausible conjecture. We don't know what we don't know.

The main take away is that part driving the public guidance to remain COVID cautious even while vaccinated for the coming few months is staying ahead of the virus. Yes it will mutate no matter what, but we all contribute to whether its a GOF or LOF mutation, how fast it mutates, how many variants and recombinations we see. And perhaps most important, once you get your jab, try your best to lay low until it fully sets in. The worst time to get COVID (for the world, at scale - not necessarily for you personally) would be one week after you're vaccinated, where your body is perhaps got more resistance than the average person but not enough to stop the virus from overcoming your immune system. If it does, and you spread COVID to someone, you've just a spread a mutated and more adapted version. Times this by millions of people, and well, that is what scientists are worried about and one reason there is a global race to get us jabbed STAT.

(And why many are alarmed at how first world nations are hoarding vaccine resources, because we're all in trouble if things run rampant in Brazil, Africa, India, etc. Not that there isn't a valid and compelling argument to be made that if the first world gets online sooner it helps all countries as they rely on our exports and systems functioning well... just... well.. it's complicated. We can all do the small easy part in our sphere of personal influence by using good practices as we begin to resume lives as usual).
 
Mon- I get Moderna shot #2 at 8pm.

Tues- was texting friends 1-2pm "Hey, I feel great, a little soreness in my arm but not bad!"
3pm I was in bed. 4pm fever, chills, body aches.

Wed- 5am fever peaked. Through the day, less fever and aches, but definitely still there.

Thurs- tired but no symptoms. 32hrs?

At least I knew what it was and roughly how long it would last. Was like a really bad cold (minus congestion) or a light, brief case of flu.
One friend got Moderna, had no reaction. Another had it fairly bad for 5 days.

Fauci says booster shots will probably be needed in 6-8 months, and Moderna says they will have one in less than 6 months.
And Moderna is supposed to be good against the variants.

But the personally fascinating thing is my DNA has changed. How often do we get to say that?

In the big picture, the more vaccinations, the less cases.
The less cases, the fewer variants.
We need to get the vaccinations to all countries of all economic status. At least one shot in the arm of every person on Earth. ASAP.
Sounds monumental. But it's doable...
 
Talking to a friend from SoCal. He's out at a local restaurant, only takeout, no indoor dining. He wants to sit at the bar and watch some TV while he's waiting for his order. No TV. He asks the owner, who now has to work the cashier counter, about the TV. The owner says, "I took it down because I didn't want to get fined". - "Fined for what?", asks my friend. "If someone catches me with the TV set on, it's a $500 fine". - "WTF?". - "I had someone come down from the local health inspector office, who told me that the city is desperate for revenues and there are all sorts of fines and taxes being created by the finance/accounting departments. The city finances is up the crapola creek".
 
The mayor of my city announced that bars can be at 50% capacity and have live music as long as there are no wind instruments and no singing by any member of the band.

The patrons can all sing at the top of their lungs. That’s permitted. But if one performer so much as sings a note, the bar is in violation.

What’s that saying? “We are now living in clown-world.”?
 
groveChuck said:
But the personally fascinating thing is my DNA has changed. How often do we get to say that?
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mRNA vaccines don't alter your DNA. The vaccine doesn't penetrate the nucleus of the cell where DNA resides. It enters the outer cytoplasm of cells and joins with their ribosomes to manufacture Covid spikes, the part of the virus that attaches to your cells. The immune system then reacts to these spikes as invaders and makes antibodies. This primes the body for the next time it encounters Covid, so the immune system antibodies can latch on and kill it before it infects you. Your DNA remains untouched.
 
JPNola said:
The mayor of my city announced that bars can be at 50% capacity and have live music as long as there are no wind instruments and no singing by any member of the band.

The patrons can all sing at the top of their lungs. That’s permitted. But if one performer so much as sings a note, the bar is in violation.

What’s that saying? “We are now living in clown-world.”?
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My friend told me just the opposite in California. The "no TV, no loud music" order was so people didn't have to yell over the PA/TV.

Here in Florida, the indoor dining reopened last fall. My favorite Japanese buffet has disposable cellophane "gloves", so one can't touch the tongs with bare hands. Likewise, a mask is required when away from own table.
 
DLD said:
Talking to a friend from SoCal. He's out at a local restaurant, only takeout, no indoor dining. He wants to sit at the bar and watch some TV while he's waiting for his order. No TV. He asks the owner, who now has to work the cashier counter, about the TV. The owner says, "I took it down because I didn't want to get fined". - "Fined for what?", asks my friend. "If someone catches me with the TV set on, it's a $500 fine". - "WTF?". - "I had someone come down from the local health inspector office, who told me that the city is desperate for revenues and there are all sorts of fines and taxes being created by the finance/accounting departments. The city finances is up the crapola creek".
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And people wonder why there is a mass exodus of people from Kalifornia.
 
Matt Gottshalk said:
And people wonder why there is a mass exodus of people from Kalifornia.
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The mass exodus is a myth. If you listen to Joe Rogan you think people are leaving in droves but it's not true. People left California at about the same rate in 2020 as they have in previous years, around 15 percent. Only difference is that because of the pandemic, way fewer people replaced them. The only city that's had a true exodus is San Francisco, which lost over 600 percent, but most of the people who left it stayed in state.
 
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Opinion pieces or outdated (2012!?). California has averaged an extra 300,000 people a year from 1990 until 2020, where it stalled because of the pandemic--

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-californias-population-boom-has-stalled/

More recent studies, based on hard data. People are moving out of the cities but often staying in California--

https://www.capolicylab.org/calexodus-are-people-leaving-california/

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-03-04/california-exodus-san-francisco-migration

https://napavalleyregister.com/opin...cle_5737391e-7de3-5061-8d23-9deb62c8eea9.html
 
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