Coronavirus Impact III

jbregar said:
My wife is a therapist at a SNF and gets tested twice a week... and has been since at least October. Before that it was once a week. It’s certainly not universally true that medical staff aren’t being tested... it’s the norm here.
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To me, that makes perfect sense. They should be tested, at the very least, once a week. I was talking to a colleague on a shoot several days ago and he does audio for NFL Films and he will be tested at least three(maybe four) times leading into today’s game, because of his access and proximity to team personnel.

You have medical personnel in direct contact on a daily basis with the general public and lots of sick people and possibly infected people. Test them. What I was told, it boils down to “head in the sand” mentality and money. The money, I get, but one of the other “reasons” I just almost could not believe and is akin to playing Russian Roulette.
 
I’m in A pod on the show I’m currently working on. I get tested 8 times a week. That’s daily PCR and rapids on M/W/F.

Our PCRs come back after about 12 hours and the rapids in less than 30 mins, often 15mins.

B pod get tested three times a week.

C pod gets tested once a week.

A pod gets tested so often because our job requires us to be around unmasked actors.

B pod is never on set when actors are around. C pod work off set.

The testing regime is to protect actors and minimise their chances of exposure at work.

We’ve had a handful of positive tests but we’ve never had a case where someone has gotten Covid at work. MOST of our positives have been in C pod, from construction.

We’ve had day players test positive on rapids. They are usually B pod and have been in testing for a few days before their call. One made it to set for about 10 mins in B zone but then was taken away when the rapids came back.

A make up artist made it to set and came back on a rapid but had already spent 10 mins in the makeup trailer with her actor. That meant the actor had to go into isolation. ( they never tested positive )

We’ve also had a few false positives, especially on the rapids. That stops us for about an hour while they contract trace us and we work out who they were in close contact with. Most of the time we don’t meet those criteria and we carry on. Our PCRs come back after about 12 hours.

I even tested positive last week on a PCR. I had no symptoms and had been very safe with no risky behaviour so I was surprised.

It turned out to be a false positive, very unusual for a PCR.

It’s a slope of detection effectiveness but it’s usually about 48 hours after you “get” Covid at the earliest that a PCR will pick up Covid and about 72 hours for a rapid.

All the regular testing does is reduce the window when someone can infect others. Combine that with wearing masks (A pod use kn95s and we’re constantly reminded how to fit and use them) and the other social distancing protocols and you are just taking those risks down much lower. Oh. We also use CO2 detectors in most rooms on set. Too many people in the room and it starts beeping. Sometimes mid take.

Just before Xmas our show had done 15000 tests in three months of shooting and the positivity rate was 0.07%. At the same time in Los Angeles where I’m shooting the community positivity rate was well over 20%.

JB
 
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John Brawley said:
We’ve also had a few false positives, especially on the rapids. That stops us for about an hour while they contract trace us and we work out who they were in close contact with. Most of the time we don’t meet those criteria and we carry on. Our PCRs come back after about 12 hours.

I even tested positive last week on a PCR. I had no symptoms and had been very safe with no risky behaviour so I was surprised.

It turned out to be a false positive, very unusual for a PCR.

JB
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The false positives are really scary, especially in the freelance world, because as we all know, no work = no money. I filled in for a friend for a few days this past week, because he had to quarantine because of "contact tracing" and someone on the crew he was just on tested positive. I text him yesterday to see how he was doing and the crew member had a false positive. 12 people affected and lost multiple days of work, because of one false positive for one person.

We all know the reason for testing and the protocols is to try to keep people safe and healthy and prevent the spread of covid, but on the flip side, the repercussions of "mistakes" can be huge financially. I believe if someone tests positive, a re-test should be immediate and automatically occur. I have one client, and unless they have changed their protocols, if you tested positive you were automatically benched for at least 10 days and there was no option for a re-test. Just looking at it from the perspective of someone like me who is generally shooting with their own gear, a false positive, either from someone they were around(forcing a quarantine) or themselves testing "positive", could potentially cost them 10's of thousands of dollars. Heck, my friend lost at least three days, that I can verify(I filled in for him for two and then was asked about another one for the day after while I was on-set, that he would have probably been asked about).
 
Run&Gun said:
The false positives are really scary, especially in the freelance world, because as we all know, no work = no money. I filled in for a friend for a few days this past week, because he had to quarantine because of "contact tracing" and someone on the crew he was just on tested positive. I text him yesterday to see how he was doing and the crew member had a false positive. 12 people affected and lost multiple days of work, because of one false positive for one person.

We all know the reason for testing and the protocols is to try to keep people safe and healthy and prevent the spread of covid, but on the flip side, the repercussions of "mistakes" can be huge financially. I believe if someone tests positive, a re-test should be immediate and automatically occur. I have one client, and unless they have changed their protocols, if you tested positive you were automatically benched for at least 10 days and there was no option for a re-test. Just looking at it from the perspective of someone like me who is generally shooting with their own gear, a false positive, either from someone they were around(forcing a quarantine) or themselves testing "positive", could potentially cost them 10's of thousands of dollars. Heck, my friend lost at least three days, that I can verify(I filled in for him for two and then was asked about another one for the day after while I was on-set, that he would have probably been asked about).
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...I'm in not in the piecemeal freelance world so it's a bit different....I feel for those in your situation....

Local 600 from memory at the moment means if you test positive and bench then you're still paid as idle days. Same for crew that contact trace and bench as close contacts. Close contacts are hotly contested, but at the moment my show says if you are both masked you have to be INSIDE of 6 feet for more than 15 cumulative mins in a 24 hour period to be considered a close contact. Otherwise you are not. Because think about it. The medical staff testing us each morning would ALSO be quarantining each time one of their clients test positive.

The make up artist I mentioned earlier was masked, but her actor was not. That's makes it a close contact, even though it was only maybe 10 mins of contact time.

Anytime we get a positive, it's usually a rapid. The first thing we do is immediately do a rapid retest....twice. So that's three rapids inside of an hour or so. That tells you pretty quickly if the positive is a false or true positive. That means generally inside of an hour you know. That positive is still sent home anyway for the day, while a PCR comes back to confirm. Contact tracing is also done and anyone that's a close contact also goes home. If the rapids come back as false positives and the NEXT DAY's PCR's are also negative, they come back to work. Downtime is max 48 hours.

JB
 
John Brawley said:
...I'm in not in the piecemeal freelance world so it's a bit different....I feel for those in your situation....

Local 600 from memory at the moment means if you test positive and bench then you're still paid as idle days. Same for crew that contact trace and bench as close contacts. Close contacts are hotly contested, but at the moment my show says if you are both masked you have to be INSIDE of 6 feet for more than 15 cumulative mins in a 24 hour period to be considered a close contact. Otherwise you are not. Because think about it. The medical staff testing us each morning would ALSO be quarantining each time one of their clients test positive.

The make up artist I mentioned earlier was masked, but her actor was not. That's makes it a close contact, even though it was only maybe 10 mins of contact time.

Anytime we get a positive, it's usually a rapid. The first thing we do is immediately do a rapid retest....twice. So that's three rapids inside of an hour or so. That tells you pretty quickly if the positive is a false or true positive. That means generally inside of an hour you know. That positive is still sent home anyway for the day, while a PCR comes back to confirm. Contact tracing is also done and anyone that's a close contact also goes home. If the rapids come back as false positives and the NEXT DAY's PCR's are also negative, they come back to work. Downtime is max 48 hours.

JB
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That's great that people are being taken care of like that, John. Lot's of moving parts and pieces and contingencies... And the money is not trivial, either, when you look at all the tests, logistics that are required to operate under these new protocols and if you have to take care of those that may have to sit-out and bringing in replacements.
 
Very optimistic projection from Columbia university on vaccine impact in US. Looks like February will crush the epidemic:

20210125_114850.jpg

Apparently California may have a homegrown variant contributing to its outbreak: https://thehill.com/changing-americ...omegrown-coronavirus-strain-in-california-may

And before there was Amazon to benefit from store closures, lockdown measures during the 1918 Spanish Flu looked much like they do today: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/#close
 
John Brawley said:
It turned out to be a false positive, very unusual for a PCR.
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There are many doctors both in the US and around the world that have very different opinions on this...

COVID Diagnosis with PCR | Misinterpreting results | Cycle threshold explained

Michael Mina - The problem of PCR sensitivity: False Infectious - False negatives as False positives

New Zealand Doctor : Dr. Sam Bailey : The Truth About PCR Tests


I'm not trying to be political here, but I find it's always worth listening to different opinions.
 
Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine is effective against new variants of the virus that first appeared in the U.K. and in South Africa, the company announced on Monday.

Yes, but: The vaccine was as effective against the strain from U.K., but saw a six-fold reduction in antibodies against the South Africa variant. Even still, the neutralizing antibodies generated by the vaccine "remain above levels that are expected to be protective," according to the company.

What to watch: Moderna now says it is developing an additional booster dose against the South Africa strain, and another booster to fight other emerging strains. The results of Moderna's tests have not yet been peer-reviewed
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https://www.axios.com/moderna-vaccine-new-variants-6128e1a0-8533-4f6d-bec5-cfdb9c6b9c9d.html
 
Here are the numbers behind California's stay-at-home reversal. They went from a 7-day average of 44k new cases daily to 25k in under 2 weeks

20210126_024755.jpg
 
TheDingo said:
There are many doctors both in the US and around the world that have very different opinions on this...

COVID Diagnosis with PCR | Misinterpreting results | Cycle threshold explained

Michael Mina - The problem of PCR sensitivity: False Infectious - False negatives as False positives

New Zealand Doctor : Dr. Sam Bailey : The Truth About PCR Tests


I'm not trying to be political here, but I find it's always worth listening to different opinions.
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Cheers.

In my case it was an administrative error. Literally a typo that meant I was told it was positive when it wasn’t a positive.

So were a few of the rest of the crew from that day.

They actually re-spun my same test (not a new test) and then re-tested me. It was fine.
 
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ahalpert said:
Here are the numbers behind California's stay-at-home reversal. They went from a 7-day average of 44k new cases daily to 25k in under 2 weeks

View attachment 142108
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Our buddy Gavin just lifted the stay at home regs yesterday. Now restaurants are open again for outdoor dining, gyms are back open for outdoor workouts. So weird to go to the market and see spin classes
in the parking lot as I drive by but it's great, I love to see people adopt and adapt, we are so good at that. Hopefully Californians have now learned to distance and just wear their damn masks, it's the only way
we are going to get through this until mass vaccine compliance is in place!
 
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John Brawley said:
Cheers.

In my case it was an administrative error. Literally a typo that meant I was told it was positive when it wasn’t a positive.

So were a few of the rest of the crew from that day.

They actually re-spun my same test (not a new test) and then re-tested me. It was fine.
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I’m on a shoot today and tomorrow(two separate shoots) that a friend booked me for late last week, to do with him. And he is now sitting out, because his test came back “abnormal”. Not positive, not negative, but abnormal. So he is out of the mix at least until Friday, because he now has to have, I believe, two negative tests 24 hours apart(plus the time to get the lab results from each). And they’re probably being extra careful with him, because one of his kids tested positive last week(contact tracing because one of the kids classmates tested positive).
 
Run&Gun said:
I’m on a shoot today and tomorrow(two separate shoots) that a friend booked me for late last week, to do with him. And he is now sitting out, because his test came back “abnormal”. Not positive, not negative, but abnormal. So he is out of the mix at least until Friday, because he now has to have, I believe, two negative tests 24 hours apart(plus the time to get the lab results from each). And they’re probably being extra careful with him, because one of his kids tested positive last week(contact tracing because one of the kids classmates tested positive).
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We test at the same lab. I just had a look at the previous 110 results in my file and they seem to equally use "negative" and "normal" without any logic. Same lab. Same people testing and reporting.

The one positive result simply said "detected" and if you open the detailed paperwork of the test they also have "very abnormal" in the details. I'm not sure they are consistent in their use of their nomenclature there.

JB
 
John Brawley said:
...I'm in not in the piecemeal freelance world so it's a bit different....I feel for those in your situation....

Local 600 from memory at the moment means if you test positive and bench then you're still paid as idle days. Same for crew that contact trace and bench as close contacts.
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Stupid unions. Imagine how many people the industry could be sending home without pay if these frivolous perks didn't depress hiring
 
The US just hit 2.1 million vaccinations in a single day.

So, according to my back of the envelope calculations (assuming 70% immunity required for herd immunity, 100% effective vaccines, 83 million estimated infections already, 33 million vaccine doses already given (including 1st and 2nd doses), population of 330 million, 2 doses required per person) -

I estimate 4-5 months before we reach herd immunity. Less if the pace of vaccinations continues to rise. And anyway, the death rate should plummet well before that (I've seen March estimated as the month that will see a massive decline in the death rate as the vulnerable populations who first received the vaccine become completely immune)

Yay! If social restrictions are largely lifted by May, this is going to be one hell of a wedding season

PS here's an article discussing why the public is unnecessarily bearish about vaccines ending the pandemic soon: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/...te=1&user_id=2cb2a5d1c7c582f071c12d55ee3b56a8

Long story short: Be. Excited.
 
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