Coronavirus Impact III

[Liam Hall]

The whole thing is a bit wackadoodle since the 95% effective method was an accident. at any rate, it seems that the sample size for the more effect dosage was too small to make a firm conclusion.

You haven't seen the data so you can't make a conclusion, firm or otherwise.

The other wrinkle is that Fauci now says we need as much as 90% population immunity to achieve herd immunity. (Which begs the question- was he lying to us before or is he lying to us now...)

I'm unclear on if that means he wants 90% to get vaccinated with a 70% effective vaccine. Or if we need 90% to actually be immune. If it's the latter, then we cant get there with a 70% effective vaccine

Fauci wasn't lying. He's simply answering the same question with different sets of data at his disposal. How much of the population need to vaccinated would depend on how transmissible the virus is, what efficacy the vaccine has and how long immunity is effective. All three of those data points continually change.

 

[ahalpert]

I haven't seen any data and I dont know s*%t. I'm just parroting what I read.

But it stands to reason that if AstraZeneca settled on a necessary sample size for trials and then administered a different dose to a small subset of that sample, the sample size will be way too small to make a conclusion of the same statistical certainty that they intended.

I like Fauci, but here's what he said recently:

"When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent ... Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, "I can nudge this up a bit," so I went to 80, 85. We need to have some humility here .... We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I'm not going to say 90 percent."

I dont want to undermine the man, but its possible that hes giving us an overestimate of required population immunity now to encourage vaccine uptake

 

[Batutta]

I think people aren't realizing how long it's going to take before vaccinations reach the general public. I saw someone on the news say in the US, at the current rate it will take ten years to vaccinate everyone in the country. Up here in Canada, it's going to be fall at the earliest before the general public gets vaccinated. People are acting like we'll be partying in a few months but there's still a very long way to go before this pandemic is over.

 

[ahalpert]

FWIW, Fauci makes the point that there will be a vaccination acceleration after top priority demographics are inoculated:

"We really want to get those priority people vaccinated so that we can then get to what we call 'open season' for the general population. When you get to the point where you can essentially say anybody and everybody who wants to be vaccinated can be vaccinated, that's when you really turn around the dynamics of the outbreak."

And it's worth nothing that because a lot of lockdown orders and school closures are tied to hospital capacity, we should see a relaxation of restrictions once immunity kicks in for high-risk groups

 

[Batutta]

That’s still a longer timetable than people assume, and that’s if everything goes right, which it never has. I admire your optimism but I don’t share it. People need to expect the worst and not believe this is almost over.

 

[ahalpert]

I admire my optimism too

Well, the CDC estimates that 25% of Americans have already had covid, so that's a bit of a head start [FACEPALM]

But seriously, the 65+ crowd is only 15% of the US population. Once we vaccinate them, we will murder the death rate.

And theres no reason to assume that vaccinations will continue at the same pace 2 months into the program as they did at the outset. There will likely be improvements

 

[ahalpert]

AstraZeneca has gotten the go-ahead in the UK. The major advantages of that vaccine are that it's cheap (the cost of a cup of coffee, they say) and can be stored in a regular refrigerator instead of the ultra-cold temps required by moderna and, even colder, pfizer. It's also a traditional viral vector vaccine and not the new mRNA type.

But only 2700 trial participants got the half dose followed by full dose regimen that tested 90% effective. 8800 got two full doses that proved only 62% effective, so there's a question mark there. Of course, if it is proven way more effective on 75% of the dosage that would be an additional boon.

Certainly, the lower cost and lower difficulty of storage will make it easier to administer in remote places or those with sparse medical infrastructure.

 

[DLD]

Meanwhile, Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R-Louisiana) dies from Covid.

 

[ahalpert]

Meanwhile, Congressman-elect Luke Letlow (R-Louisiana) dies from Covid.

Rest in peace. He looked quite healthy and was only 41

 

[Liam Hall]

But only 2700 trial participants got the half dose followed by full dose regimen that tested 90% effective. 8800 got two full doses that proved only 62% effective, so there's a question mark there. Of course, if it is proven way more effective on 75% of the dosage that would be an additional boon.

The boffins are doing a press conference right now. They are reassuringly academic and clearly uncomfortable in front of the cameras (that's how I like my boffins to be). Quick take; fast approval due to a rolling approval process (they've been tracking the data for months). This thing is safe for most of us.

The half-dose regimen has not been approved as it is still unproven. They say delaying the second vaccine increases efficacy to 80%.

First dose alone is 70% effective. But no one in the trials who contracted Covid actually got seriously ill which means they can role out the first dose and delay the second dose meaning they can vaccinate all the vulnerable patients by end of Feb.

Still need to social distance/wear masks etc as no evidence yet those measures can be relaxed.

BTW the editor of the Lancet said, 70-75% of the population will need to be vaccinated for herd immunity.

 

[lambert]

Very strange disease. I have a close relative, morbidly obese, severe asthma, other health issues, mid fifties, got it and very mild symptoms (more tired than usual, nothing else). It’s been a few months and was back to work once the quarantine ( 2 weeks or so) and multiple negative tests. So far so good, thank goodness. Crazy how random it is.

 

[Batutta]

Very strange disease. I have a close relative, morbidly obese, severe asthma, other health issues, mid fifties, got it and very mild symptoms (more tired than usual, nothing else). It’s been a few months and was back to work once the quarantine ( 2 weeks or so) and multiple negative tests. So far so good, thank goodness. Crazy how random it is.

My guess is that if he has severe asthma (as I do), he is on strong steroids which is one of the treatments for Covid-19, so it probably kept his disease under control long enough for his immune system to mount a proper defense.

 

[lambert]

I hadn’t thought of that Batutta, also blood type might be a slight factor also (O pos) but I don’t have any answers, just questions like most.

 

[Batutta]

Well it's a theory that I don't want to test out personally, but Idris Elba is an asthmatic on inhaled steroids and he also had a pretty mild Covid infection early in the pandemic. Inhaled steroids suppress the inflammatory response of the lungs, which in Covid causes fluid build up and scarring of lung tissue. In severe cases people just drown in their own lung fluids.

 

[Run&Gun]

They are fortunately making strides in treatments and care. My Mom’s friend’s son got to come home from the hospital just before Christmas after being there for many weeks being treated for COVID. His doctors told him if he had contracted it earlier back in the spring/summer he would have died.

 

[DLD]

Steroids are often used as the anti-inflammatory drugs for patients with the respiratory problems and Covid's main complication is body's own inflammatory reaction to the infection (rather than the infection itself). So, it's indeed a probable cause of quick healing.

 

[Jim Arthurs]

The small Colorado town I went to school (K-12) is ground zero for the first case of the Covid 19 UK Variant in the US. The nursing home (mentioned as the physical ground zero) housed at one time or another, my Great Grandmother, Grandmother, Aunt and my Father before their death.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/30/us/simla-colorado-coronavirus-variant.html

The one thing that has given me some comfort all these fall months is the Simla School bus (Go Cubs!) passing my ranch property's security camera every morning at 7:20AM just like it has since the last time I rode it as a senior in 1983.

 

[DLD]

Dawn Wells, of the "Gilligan Island" fame, passed away from Covid at 82. She'd been in a nursing home/assisted living facility for several years.

 

[ahalpert]

The boffins are doing a press conference right now. They are reassuringly academic and clearly uncomfortable in front of the cameras (that's how I like my boffins to be). Quick take; fast approval due to a rolling approval process (they've been tracking the data for months). This thing is safe for most of us.

The half-dose regimen has not been approved as it is still unproven. They say delaying the second vaccine increases efficacy to 80%.

First dose alone is 70% effective. But no one in the trials who contracted Covid actually got seriously ill which means they can role out the first dose and delay the second dose meaning they can vaccinate all the vulnerable patients by end of Feb.

Still need to social distance/wear masks etc as no evidence yet those measures can be relaxed.

BTW the editor of the Lancet said, 70-75% of the population will need to be vaccinated for herd immunity.

I had to look up "boffins"



Your boffins say 75%. My boffins are saying possibly 85%+. Who really knows. And as you said about virus data being a moving target - if there really is a more contagious variant afoot, I would expect that to raise the threshold for herd immunity

Sounds like unequivocally good news about AstraZeneca re:delaying 2nd dose. It would be good if they do achieve parity with efficacy of pfizer/moderna because that would eliminate preference for one over the other on the part of patients (like me). I havent read any red flags raised over its safety, only over if the half-dose results were a red herring or not

 

[DLD]

If anyone cares - and I know I don't - the owners of MLS have asked for a force majeure clause in their CBA with the player union. Under the legal terms, this requires a one month of negotiations in good faith. Should an agreement not be reached within these 30 days, the owners have the right to void the CBA.

Now one has to wonder if this will spread to other areas of sports and entertainment.